Scary Numbers

[ToiletDuck]

well at the school I went to I'm the 6th one to graduate out of a class of 88 that started. Either the rest quit or changed majors. At the actual flying part of it even less percentage wise made it. I'd put it more around maybe 5% that made it all the way through.

 

[Kingairrick]

Southwest, Jetblue, Continental.

 

[VampyreGTX]

Avbug

No, You can't call these stats. The numbers have been taken into consideration for all the variables that you mentioned. These are the facts. They are the true numbers of pilots out there with current medicals. Here is the link http://www.aopa.org/special/newsroom/stats/pilots_state.html . After two decades in the industry I still didn't know very many who made it to major, so I did some research. Flying Magazine is the one who is good at bending the statistics.

Skyline

Where do you see it mention anything about current medicals? It only states total certificates by state. Nothing about the pilots even having active medicals. (that's probably how they collect the stats, but it doesn't state that like you say.) This list includes all pilots 60+, all of which no longer qualify for a airline job, but still will maintain an ATP or commercial until they die. I have a commercial rating, my goal was to fly, but with my family, unless the pay scales in the beginning change drastically or I get a windfall of cash somehow, my 'career' will remain as a certificated commercial pilot and nothing more. Also, I can't recall which magazine, but one shows the monthly NEW certificates and the student pilot certificates have been slowing. There are less new student certificates issued every month.

Oh and they are stats, they are even located under the STATS part of the AOPA site. What you call them, stats or facts, has no bearing on what they represent.

 

[Skyline]

Denial

Stats or Facts,

Like I said you make the choice on how to interpret them. Few would say that the odds are good to make it to a major. Out of my college graduating class of 30 only three are still flying and only one made it to a major.

My message is that throughout our careers we should occasionally step back and measure our progress, the costs and the odds of success. I had a roommate while flying for a regional. I bought a house and he moved in with me. At the time I told him to consider buying one as well, but he told me that he wanted to wait until he got on with a major before he bought. A year later he was dating a beautiful young lady and I asked if he was thinking of marriage he told me that "no" he was going to wait till he got on with a major before he settled down. The years have gone by and he and I are approaching 40 my friend is still at that regional and becoming a senior Captain and all he talks about these days are "how expensive houses are" and "how all the good girls are gone".

We all aggressively pursue our dreams without regard to personal costs. As we age the price becomes more expensive. You might loose more than you bargained for unless you periodically evaluate your situation. Look at the market, the number of unemployed, hiring trends and forecast where you feel your realistic odds of being in 5 years are. If you are headed in the wrong direction it can take that long to effect a change.

It is true that a few airlines are hiring but just as many are beginning to furlough again. My guess is that there are at least 100 qualified applicants out there for every new hire at SWA. We all need to evaluate our own odds of being that 100 and what we are willing to sacrifice to get there.

Skyline

 

[A Squared]

No, You can't call these stats. The numbers have been taken into consideration for all the variables that you mentioned. These are the facts.

Look, every time you post, it becomes more apparent that you don't have a clue what the word Statistics means. Statistics are merely a collection of data, numerical "facts", if you will. A group of numbers representing the number and breakdown among different types of certificated pilots is certainly statistics, in it's most basic form. If you don't think this is statistics, you need to go someplace and learn what statistics are, because you haven't a clue.


MFRskynight and Mattpilot are correct, the munbers for student pilots released by the FAA means holders of student pilot certificates, ie people working on a PPL, rec or sport certificate.

it then would be easy to assume that more than half of the private pilots out there intent (sic) to be a pro

Umm, sure it would be equally easy to assume that 100% are, or that 1 % are. you can assume anything you want, that doesn't make it even remotely correct. To have any validity, an assumption like that has to have some sort of rational basis, which yours does not. Like someone else said, you just pulled that out of your arse.

On this page, http://www.aopa.org/special/newsroom/stats/pilots.html
AOPA makes the statement that "As a rule of thumb, about 20 percent of all pilots are actually employed full-time as pilots." Now, I'm not sure where AOPA gets that number, but it's a long, long way from your position that *all* comm and ATP holders are working pilots and 70% of private pilots *will* be.

Out of my college graduating class of 30 only three are still flying and only one made it to a major.

hmmm, that doesn't give much support to your theory that *all* comm and ATP holders are working pilots and 70% of private pilots *will* be. What's that? 10% of your graduating class? May we assume that your graduating class, if it was a professional pilot major, all had commercial certificates at a minimum when they graduated?

Where do you see it mention anything about current medicals? It only states total certificates by state. Nothing about the pilots even having active medicals.

It doesn't say that on the AOPA page, but that is how the FAA releases thos numbers, as "active" pilots, maning those holding current medicals. If you go the FAA's website:

http://registry.faa.gov/activeairmen/main_page.asp

you'll see that this page is titled "active airmen" and when you consider that the FAAs statistics groups all pilots together while the AOPA statistics parse out the helicopter, glider, and lighter than air pilots, the numbers match up fairly well.

 

[bigD]

Skyline is the anti-Kit Darby.

 

[flyinboy]

Too much negativity

Skyline, you are nothing but a negativity spewin', doomsday preachin', naysayer.

Has it ever occurred to you that some of us are happy flying our Lear jets for these "crappy" 135 companies? I'm home with my kids every night and I get paid to do what I love. That is the most important thing.

Big deal if I don't get on with a major airline-I'm not bent that way. Those who truly want to get to that level will persevere and do whatever it takes to do so. The others will either give up, or settle for something less than their dream job. For me, as well as others I'm sure, it’s not the major airlines.



My apologies to those who care if I have misspelled something.

 

[NYCPilot]

I realize I'm getting in a little late on the conversation but here's my take.

I believe most of those stats. come from whats reported on current medicals. As far as there being a large number of CFI's out there, that figure is skewed. There are a lot of people who hold the CFI and do not actively teach. A lot of these pilots are airline pilots and such, flying commerical operations. They only keep the CFI current every 2 years since it is a hassle to have it reinstated again. A lot of CFI's also have no intention on going for a professional job, other than just teaching on the weekends for soem free flight time and partaking in their hobby. Most have occupations that pay much more and feel satisifed with thier work.

Many pilots will even get the commercial for sake of just having it. It's not much different than attaining the various levels of belts found in the martial arts.

Although it appears that the student to CFI ratio is a one-on-one, many after getting the SPC don't even bother to finish. Don't forget, a CFI teaches mor ethan just primary students. His student base consists of certificated pilots who need BFR's, checkouts, IFR currency, advanced ratings and certificates and so on. Plenty of students don't even possess a SPC, andso these may increase the number of students even more. Lots of people take lessons without obtaining the SPC.

 

[avbug]

According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, one in five pilots is a commercial pilot, meaning one who flies for a living.

http://stats.bls.gov/oco/pdf/ocos107.pdf

Of course, the official agency charged with keeping track of this stuff and reporting it also states on the same report:

"Civilian aircraft pilots and flight engineers held about 100,000 jobs in 2002. About 79,000 worked as airline pilots, copilots, and flight engineers. The remainder were commercial pilots who worked as flight instructors at local airports or for large businesses that fly company cargo and executives in their own airplanes or helicopters. Some commercial pilots flew small planes for air-taxi companies, usually to or from lightly traveled airports not served by major airlines. Others worked for a variety of businesses, performing tasks such as dusting crops, inspecting pipelines, or conducting sightseeing trips. Federal, State, and local governments also employed pilots. A few pilots were self-employed.."

We know that isn't close to being correct. It also goes on to talk about the "pilot shortage" prior to 09/11.

I cannot believe that Skyline has the experience he suggests in his personal data, yet is this ignorant of the state of the industry. Clearly he didn't come up through the industry, or he'd know better.

I'm also a little disturbed by the arrogance to suggest that most pilots view flying for a major airline as the shangri-la of employment in the industry. There are more than a few who would consider such a move a step down. While it's true that not every pilot will be sitting in the front office of a B777 at the end of his or her career...not everybody wants to, either. Think about that.

Whatever one's flavor, for those who desire to fly for a living, the opportunity is not only there, but very available. It's not a holy grail that only the select few ever reach. If it's something you want to do, you will do it. If it's something to which you are not fully committed, you might do it.

Also from the Bureau of Labor Statistics, we find the following:

http://stats.bls.gov/oco/content/ocos107.stm

"1 out of 5 pilots is a commercial pilot involved in more unusual tasks, such as dusting crops, spreading seed for reforestation, testing aircraft, flying passengers and cargo to areas not served by regular airlines, directing firefighting efforts, tracking criminals, monitoring traffic, and rescuing and evacuating injured persons."

 

[A Squared]

According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, one in five pilots is a commercial pilot, meaning one who flies for a living.

I think you're reading this incorectly (assuming I'm reading your meaning correctly) What I read in the BLS report is that out of 5 pilots who fly for a living, 4 are arline pilots (or FEs) and one is a commercial pilot of some other type. The BLS documentdoesn't address the issue of how many certificated pilots actually are employed as pilots, or perhaps I misunderstand your menaing.


On a somewhat related tangent, the BLS has been way off on some of thier information. Recently they released thier occupational fatality statistics for 2004, claiming that there were 22 airline pilots killed on the job

In reality there were 3 airline pilots who died on the job in 2004

 

[ToiletDuck]

*all* comm and ATP holders are working pilots and 70% of private pilots *will* be.

That 70% is BS i'm sorry I don't care how you cut it. If you really want me to find the answers to this then I will but I already know right now that 70% is just complete BS.

Rule of thumb is you need three accurate sorces to make something reliable. If I find just one article saying something opposite then you're whole argument is already lost. Try and find three sources.

 

[Skyline]

Details and bashing

Lets just forget about the details. Forget about the term "statistics" Ignore my statements that this little exercise of mine was largely based upon my own assumptions and lets examine it on a more basic level. Someone claimed that less than 20% of all pilots were currently working as professional pilots. If over half of all pilots are either commercial or ATP then at least 30% are unemployed. I am sure that most of the people who got an ATP did it with professional desires and now a large number of them are not working. You can choose to look at these numbers however you like. To me it seems that most of us will not make it to our career goals. Does anyone suggest otherwise? Perhaps if more of you were flying at a regional airlines you would be able to hear some sad stories the captains tell of missed interviews and broken dreams.

Don't get me wrong I am not trying to be a dream killer. It just seems to me to be obvious that there is simply not enough room for most of us out there at the best companies. If your dream is to fly a crop duster then don't comment here. I am not addressing you. If you are going to tell me that the regionals are great then I am sure you will be very happy. What I am taking about are the chances that the average off the street person has to make it, before 35, to a good company. To me it seems that the numbers claim that we have a 1 in 10 chance. If that is alright with you then go for it. For those of you with self preservation instincts then you had better take a hard look. Just by the strong response I have gotten from most of you it tells me that you all are thinking it as well.

Skyline

 

[mar]

No argument here

You bet. This industry is highly competitive and all of the sniping and bickering on this forum is symptomatic of that fact.

There are a lot of bad deals, trashed companies and ruined marriages in this business. That's a fact.

I think the real tragedy is the person who enters this business with some expectations of "normalcy" as compared to their "normal" Mon-Fri 9-5 friends.

This job is much better viewed as an "alternative" lifestyle.

I never wanted to work in a cube and commute with the rest of the lemmings so I've picked my poison.

Most adults realize that's Life mostly....pick your poison.

Good luck.

 

[ToiletDuck]

If over half of all pilots are either commercial or ATP then at least 30% are unemployed.

You are still emplying they are trying to work as a pilot. Many do it because they like achieving new goals or because they want the additional training so they can be good at it. I guess 30% unemployed as pilots could be true, but a lot of that 30% might not be trying to be a pilot. Some people just like having a Commercial or ATP license.

I've spent more years trying to get my handicap under par in golf than I have been flying and I have no intention of playing golf professionally.

 

[KigAir]

My only point is that there is a lot of competition and that there are clearly not enough seats to go around. You are right that most of us will quit over time.

You afraid of competition?