Welcome to Flightinfo.com

  • Register now and join the discussion
  • Friendliest aviation Ccmmunity on the web
  • Modern site for PC's, Phones, Tablets - no 3rd party apps required
  • Ask questions, help others, promote aviation
  • Share the passion for aviation
  • Invite everyone to Flightinfo.com and let's have fun

Scary Numbers

Welcome to Flightinfo.com

  • Register now and join the discussion
  • Modern secure site, no 3rd party apps required
  • Invite your friends
  • Share the passion of aviation
  • Friendliest aviation community on the web
Skyline said:
Avbug

No, You can't call these stats. The numbers have been taken into consideration for all the variables that you mentioned. These are the facts. They are the true numbers of pilots out there with current medicals. Here is the link http://www.aopa.org/special/newsroom/stats/pilots_state.html . After two decades in the industry I still didn't know very many who made it to major, so I did some research. Flying Magazine is the one who is good at bending the statistics.

Skyline

Where do you see it mention anything about current medicals? It only states total certificates by state. Nothing about the pilots even having active medicals. (that's probably how they collect the stats, but it doesn't state that like you say.) This list includes all pilots 60+, all of which no longer qualify for a airline job, but still will maintain an ATP or commercial until they die. I have a commercial rating, my goal was to fly, but with my family, unless the pay scales in the beginning change drastically or I get a windfall of cash somehow, my 'career' will remain as a certificated commercial pilot and nothing more. Also, I can't recall which magazine, but one shows the monthly NEW certificates and the student pilot certificates have been slowing. There are less new student certificates issued every month.

Oh and they are stats, they are even located under the STATS part of the AOPA site. What you call them, stats or facts, has no bearing on what they represent.
 
Denial

Stats or Facts,

Like I said you make the choice on how to interpret them. Few would say that the odds are good to make it to a major. Out of my college graduating class of 30 only three are still flying and only one made it to a major.

My message is that throughout our careers we should occasionally step back and measure our progress, the costs and the odds of success. I had a roommate while flying for a regional. I bought a house and he moved in with me. At the time I told him to consider buying one as well, but he told me that he wanted to wait until he got on with a major before he bought. A year later he was dating a beautiful young lady and I asked if he was thinking of marriage he told me that "no" he was going to wait till he got on with a major before he settled down. The years have gone by and he and I are approaching 40 my friend is still at that regional and becoming a senior Captain and all he talks about these days are "how expensive houses are" and "how all the good girls are gone".

We all aggressively pursue our dreams without regard to personal costs. As we age the price becomes more expensive. You might loose more than you bargained for unless you periodically evaluate your situation. Look at the market, the number of unemployed, hiring trends and forecast where you feel your realistic odds of being in 5 years are. If you are headed in the wrong direction it can take that long to effect a change.

It is true that a few airlines are hiring but just as many are beginning to furlough again. My guess is that there are at least 100 qualified applicants out there for every new hire at SWA. We all need to evaluate our own odds of being that 100 and what we are willing to sacrifice to get there.

Skyline
 
Skyline said:
No, You can't call these stats. The numbers have been taken into consideration for all the variables that you mentioned. These are the facts.

Look, every time you post, it becomes more apparent that you don't have a clue what the word Statistics means. Statistics are merely a collection of data, numerical "facts", if you will. A group of numbers representing the number and breakdown among different types of certificated pilots is certainly statistics, in it's most basic form. If you don't think this is statistics, you need to go someplace and learn what statistics are, because you haven't a clue.


MFRskynight and Mattpilot are correct, the munbers for student pilots released by the FAA means holders of student pilot certificates, ie people working on a PPL, rec or sport certificate.

Skyline said:
it then would be easy to assume that more than half of the private pilots out there intent (sic) to be a pro

Umm, sure it would be equally easy to assume that 100% are, or that 1 % are. you can assume anything you want, that doesn't make it even remotely correct. To have any validity, an assumption like that has to have some sort of rational basis, which yours does not. Like someone else said, you just pulled that out of your arse.

On this page, http://www.aopa.org/special/newsroom/stats/pilots.html
AOPA makes the statement that "As a rule of thumb, about 20 percent of all pilots are actually employed full-time as pilots." Now, I'm not sure where AOPA gets that number, but it's a long, long way from your position that *all* comm and ATP holders are working pilots and 70% of private pilots *will* be.

Skyline said:
Out of my college graduating class of 30 only three are still flying and only one made it to a major.

hmmm, that doesn't give much support to your theory that *all* comm and ATP holders are working pilots and 70% of private pilots *will* be. What's that? 10% of your graduating class? May we assume that your graduating class, if it was a professional pilot major, all had commercial certificates at a minimum when they graduated?


VampyreGTX said:
Where do you see it mention anything about current medicals? It only states total certificates by state. Nothing about the pilots even having active medicals.

It doesn't say that on the AOPA page, but that is how the FAA releases thos numbers, as "active" pilots, maning those holding current medicals. If you go the FAA's website:

http://registry.faa.gov/activeairmen/main_page.asp

you'll see that this page is titled "active airmen" and when you consider that the FAAs statistics groups all pilots together while the AOPA statistics parse out the helicopter, glider, and lighter than air pilots, the numbers match up fairly well.
 
Too much negativity

Skyline, you are nothing but a negativity spewin', doomsday preachin', naysayer.

Has it ever occurred to you that some of us are happy flying our Lear jets for these "crappy" 135 companies? I'm home with my kids every night and I get paid to do what I love. That is the most important thing.

Big deal if I don't get on with a major airline-I'm not bent that way. Those who truly want to get to that level will persevere and do whatever it takes to do so. The others will either give up, or settle for something less than their dream job. For me, as well as others I'm sure, it’s not the major airlines.



My apologies to those who care if I have misspelled something.
 
I realize I'm getting in a little late on the conversation but here's my take.

I believe most of those stats. come from whats reported on current medicals. As far as there being a large number of CFI's out there, that figure is skewed. There are a lot of people who hold the CFI and do not actively teach. A lot of these pilots are airline pilots and such, flying commerical operations. They only keep the CFI current every 2 years since it is a hassle to have it reinstated again. A lot of CFI's also have no intention on going for a professional job, other than just teaching on the weekends for soem free flight time and partaking in their hobby. Most have occupations that pay much more and feel satisifed with thier work.

Many pilots will even get the commercial for sake of just having it. It's not much different than attaining the various levels of belts found in the martial arts.

Although it appears that the student to CFI ratio is a one-on-one, many after getting the SPC don't even bother to finish. Don't forget, a CFI teaches mor ethan just primary students. His student base consists of certificated pilots who need BFR's, checkouts, IFR currency, advanced ratings and certificates and so on. Plenty of students don't even possess a SPC, andso these may increase the number of students even more. Lots of people take lessons without obtaining the SPC.
 
Last edited:
According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, one in five pilots is a commercial pilot, meaning one who flies for a living.

http://stats.bls.gov/oco/pdf/ocos107.pdf

Of course, the official agency charged with keeping track of this stuff and reporting it also states on the same report:

"Civilian aircraft pilots and flight engineers held about 100,000 jobs in 2002. About 79,000 worked as airline pilots, copilots, and flight engineers. The remainder were commercial pilots who worked as flight instructors at local airports or for large businesses that fly company cargo and executives in their own airplanes or helicopters. Some commercial pilots flew small planes for air-taxi companies, usually to or from lightly traveled airports not served by major airlines. Others worked for a variety of businesses, performing tasks such as dusting crops, inspecting pipelines, or conducting sightseeing trips. Federal, State, and local governments also employed pilots. A few pilots were self-employed.."

We know that isn't close to being correct. It also goes on to talk about the "pilot shortage" prior to 09/11.

I cannot believe that Skyline has the experience he suggests in his personal data, yet is this ignorant of the state of the industry. Clearly he didn't come up through the industry, or he'd know better.

I'm also a little disturbed by the arrogance to suggest that most pilots view flying for a major airline as the shangri-la of employment in the industry. There are more than a few who would consider such a move a step down. While it's true that not every pilot will be sitting in the front office of a B777 at the end of his or her career...not everybody wants to, either. Think about that.

Whatever one's flavor, for those who desire to fly for a living, the opportunity is not only there, but very available. It's not a holy grail that only the select few ever reach. If it's something you want to do, you will do it. If it's something to which you are not fully committed, you might do it.

Also from the Bureau of Labor Statistics, we find the following:

http://stats.bls.gov/oco/content/ocos107.stm

"1 out of 5 pilots is a commercial pilot involved in more unusual tasks, such as dusting crops, spreading seed for reforestation, testing aircraft, flying passengers and cargo to areas not served by regular airlines, directing firefighting efforts, tracking criminals, monitoring traffic, and rescuing and evacuating injured persons."
 
Last edited:
avbug said:
According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, one in five pilots is a commercial pilot, meaning one who flies for a living.

I think you're reading this incorectly (assuming I'm reading your meaning correctly) What I read in the BLS report is that out of 5 pilots who fly for a living, 4 are arline pilots (or FEs) and one is a commercial pilot of some other type. The BLS documentdoesn't address the issue of how many certificated pilots actually are employed as pilots, or perhaps I misunderstand your menaing.


On a somewhat related tangent, the BLS has been way off on some of thier information. Recently they released thier occupational fatality statistics for 2004, claiming that there were 22 airline pilots killed on the job

In reality there were 3 airline pilots who died on the job in 2004
 
Last edited:
*all* comm and ATP holders are working pilots and 70% of private pilots *will* be.
That 70% is BS i'm sorry I don't care how you cut it. If you really want me to find the answers to this then I will but I already know right now that 70% is just complete BS.

Rule of thumb is you need three accurate sorces to make something reliable. If I find just one article saying something opposite then you're whole argument is already lost. Try and find three sources.
 
Details and bashing

Lets just forget about the details. Forget about the term "statistics" Ignore my statements that this little exercise of mine was largely based upon my own assumptions and lets examine it on a more basic level. Someone claimed that less than 20% of all pilots were currently working as professional pilots. If over half of all pilots are either commercial or ATP then at least 30% are unemployed. I am sure that most of the people who got an ATP did it with professional desires and now a large number of them are not working. You can choose to look at these numbers however you like. To me it seems that most of us will not make it to our career goals. Does anyone suggest otherwise? Perhaps if more of you were flying at a regional airlines you would be able to hear some sad stories the captains tell of missed interviews and broken dreams.

Don't get me wrong I am not trying to be a dream killer. It just seems to me to be obvious that there is simply not enough room for most of us out there at the best companies. If your dream is to fly a crop duster then don't comment here. I am not addressing you. If you are going to tell me that the regionals are great then I am sure you will be very happy. What I am taking about are the chances that the average off the street person has to make it, before 35, to a good company. To me it seems that the numbers claim that we have a 1 in 10 chance. If that is alright with you then go for it. For those of you with self preservation instincts then you had better take a hard look. Just by the strong response I have gotten from most of you it tells me that you all are thinking it as well.

Skyline
 
No argument here

You bet. This industry is highly competitive and all of the sniping and bickering on this forum is symptomatic of that fact.

There are a lot of bad deals, trashed companies and ruined marriages in this business. That's a fact.

I think the real tragedy is the person who enters this business with some expectations of "normalcy" as compared to their "normal" Mon-Fri 9-5 friends.

This job is much better viewed as an "alternative" lifestyle.

I never wanted to work in a cube and commute with the rest of the lemmings so I've picked my poison.

Most adults realize that's Life mostly....pick your poison.

Good luck.
 
If over half of all pilots are either commercial or ATP then at least 30% are unemployed.
You are still emplying they are trying to work as a pilot. Many do it because they like achieving new goals or because they want the additional training so they can be good at it. I guess 30% unemployed as pilots could be true, but a lot of that 30% might not be trying to be a pilot. Some people just like having a Commercial or ATP license.

I've spent more years trying to get my handicap under par in golf than I have been flying and I have no intention of playing golf professionally.
 
Skyline said:
My only point is that there is a lot of competition and that there are clearly not enough seats to go around. You are right that most of us will quit over time.

You afraid of competition?
 
Competition

I am not afraid of competition. I am afraid of wasting my life. I am afraid of winding up destitute at 58 after a full career of working.

Toilet Duck

You are right that all those unemployed ATP's and Commercial pilots are probably on to something else by now, but what that means is that they tried and failed. Gave up, threw in the towel. You could claim that a few are really hobby pilots but I am sure that most would raise their hand as being one for the grist mill.

The majority of us will end up spending our careers at the regionals or giving up. There just isn't enough room for everyone in fact only a slim few will make it.

If you are under 30 and in the left seat of an RJ I would say that you were in a good place. They have a one in three shot. If you are under 28 and the Captain of a 121 turboprop you stand a fair chance. They might have 5 to one odds. Much outside of that is slim pickins.

Skyline
 
Skyline said:
I am not afraid of competition. I am afraid of wasting my life. I am afraid of winding up destitute at 58 after a full career of working.

Toilet Duck

You are right that all those unemployed ATP's and Commercial pilots are probably on to something else by now, but what that means is that they tried and failed. Gave up, threw in the towel. You could claim that a few are really hobby pilots but I am sure that most would raise their hand as being one for the grist mill.

The majority of us will end up spending our careers at the regionals or giving up. There just isn't enough room for everyone in fact only a slim few will make it.

If you are under 30 and in the left seat of an RJ I would say that you were in a good place. They have a one in three shot. If you are under 28 and the Captain of a 121 turboprop you stand a fair chance. They might have 5 to one odds. Much outside of that is slim pickins.

Skyline
Fair chance? At what, being happy to be in a profession?

In my profession, I grind a stinky, homely, slow, noisy, unpressurized, simple ass, single engine turboprop through the sky. Today, as I sat in that "trawler" of an airplane, I saw my aircraft shadow bouncing closer and further away on the clouds with that goofy prism rainbow, while I enjoyed a cup of joe and the morning news on the ADF. I then reminded myself once again...it sure beats the hell out of deboning chickens for a living!

Just because THEY packaged a dream and put spin on it, it doesn't mean you're a loser because you find satisfaction in a postion lesser than the package deal promotion. Find the satisfaction...that's what I did.

It's all in what you make of it.
 
Last edited:
FN FAL said:
Fair chance? At what, being happy to be in a profession?

In my profession, I grind a stinky, homely, slow, noisy, unpressurized, simple ass, single engine turboprop through the sky. Today, as I sat in that "trawler" of an airplane, I saw my aircraft shadow bouncing closer and further away on the clouds with that goofy prism rainbow, while I enjoyed a cup of joe and the morning news on the ADF. I then reminded myself once again...it sure beats the hell out of deboning chickens for a living!

Just because THEY packaged a dream and put spin on it, it doesn't mean you're a loser because you find satisfaction in a postion lesser than the package deal promotion. Find the satisfaction...that's what I did.

It's all in what you make of it.

Great post.
 
FN FAL, do the chickens have large talons?

Good post. Exactly how I feel.
 
I find the notion that pilots should seek an airline career, and not finding that, consider themselves a failure, increadibly arrogant.

Perhaps if you think that only airline pilots are professionals, then yes, you might by right, skyline. Perhaps if you think that only pilots who fly for a major airline are successful professional pilots, you might be right, skyline. Perhaps if you feel that every other job out there is somehow beneath flying for an airline, you might be right, skyline.

But you're not.

Pleanty of seats abound, plenty of opportunities to work.

Finding yourself 58 years old without all the toys makes you a failure, does it?

In many lands, surviving to 58 is a huge success. One man's ceiling is another arrogant man's floor, right?

When I was a kid, we'd read stories about other kids who were so poor they couldn't rub two nickles together. We seldom had two quarters to rub together. I understood the kids in those stories, and I wondered if they wanted to fly as badly as I did. As I still do.

I'm grateful every time I strap into an airplane, insanely so. Your concepts presuppose too much. I know a lot of people who would give up most of what they have for the opportunity to have the privilege to fly. Many people start with just that in mind; it represents the fulfillment of their greatest dream. No great aspirations of grandeur, no plans to slog it out whining about union issues and lost pensions and furloughs. Just simple, free, fulfilling flight.

For those who do desire to fly and be paid for that unbelievable privilege, the opportunities are there, and a job awaits every soul that wants one. Your statistics, and the interpretations thereof, are in error.
 
Needs

For those of you who are truly disciples of the religion and love of aviation I tip my hat. The world needs monks of the sky or else how will our crops get sprayed, checks delivered or medevac flights get done.

I came from a different generation and from a different set of expectations. My points and statements are solely for those who desire a lucrative major airline career. If you find the love sitting in a Lear at 3:00AM than good for you I am sure that you will have plenty of opportunities to be happy. I feel that most people start out with that 747-400 in mind and a 250K pay check. Those are the folks that I am trying to reach. Some people want a stable life, health insurance, retirement plans, 18+ days off a month, respect, upper middle class income and the ability to properly provide for ones family.

If you think that it is reward enough to watch ice crystals form on the leading edge then you are in luck because there are an unlimited number of positions for those of you who like that kind of abuse. You can kiss your plane good night and then commit suicide when the money runs out in your short, short retirement. We all start out with moon beam eyes and the latest flying magazine under our arm, but sooner or later you need to figure out how to make a life and living out of it. For most people that means a good job at a major airline. However, There just simply isn't enough room for everyone.

Deboning chickens is not a fair analogy. If you had the determination to make it as a pro-pilot then you could have done a lot of things that paid much better. Most people blow 150K on four years of college and pilot licences. They could have become a doctor, but instead they are earning 16K flying a Seneca across the cascades at 4:00am.

Skyline
 
If you think that it is reward enough to watch ice crystals form on the leading edge then you are in luck because there are an unlimited number of positions for those of you who like that kind of abuse. You can kiss your plane good night and then commit suicide when the money runs out in your short, short retirement. We all start out with moon beam eyes and the latest flying magazine under our arm, but sooner or later you need to figure out how to make a life and living out of it. For most people that means a good job at a major airline.


I think that is one of the most condescending, if not arrogant things I've ever read on flight info.

You can kiss your airplane good night and then commit suicide...what an uttery stupid thing to say.

I do know pilots who became pilots purely for the money, and I don't know one of them that isn't bitter and miserable. Much like you.

I know a lot of other pilots who fly because it does make a living, and it's one we feel grateful to do. I've flown freight, single engine and multie engine heavy tankers, certain government assignments, skydivers, hauled banners, charter, flight instruction, air ambulance, air attack, crop dusting and aerial application, airline, fractional, corporate, and a few other things in there. Hauled a glider or two. Even gyroplanes. Loved the J-3 cub.

Still do.

Now I do have family members who have committed suicide. I have friends who said good night and then shot themselves. Not pilots, mind you, but people to whom your trite little snapshot of life took on real meaning. Me, I am still here, go figure.

At first your posts had the appearance of one who is drunk, who is depressed, who is rambling and rattling, and bitter. But if this is the case, you've been down or drunk for too long, and it's time to get some help. Are you feeling suicidal? Say so. We can get you help right now. Things are not as bad as you may think. Help is nothing more than a change in perception; it's easy, and the pain really does go away. Not so, with suicide.

We've had a couple of those on this board already, nobody wants to see another one. Say the word, here or by PM, and you've got no shortage of people who are willing to talk, trust me.

Your choice.
 
Don't forget that there are a lot of foreign pilots that hold an ATP or CPL that came over here to gain experience and are flying for international airlines.

The best thing about the FAA license is that it's good for life, once it's issued you'll kep it unless it'll get revoked for some reason.



PS. I have only read the first few posts when I wrote this reply, I will read the rest later.
 
Skyline said:
Deboning chickens is not a fair analogy.
Sure it is...you can't re-bone a chicken, just like you can't un-hypnotize the lemmings that flight schools massage into believing the "Big Lie". I thought I was quite clear on that?
 
Once I got the plane settled into cruise this morning, I actually began to think about this thread and the things that FN FAL said. A couple of thoughts came to mind:

Like FN FAL, I'm not flying a 747. I'm pretty far from it. Nonetheless, I absolutely love my job. There was a time when I was making good money flying a desk in the tech industry. Every day, I looked out my window and wished I was at the airport flying. Now that I spend my days flying, not once have I looked out the window and wished I was at a desk.

My second thought was that Skyline is a jackass.
 
Well it once again serves for me as a reminder to first read the whole thread before replying to it.

For what it is worth, I do fly a 747 and it's a nice job, but it was a lot more gratifying to fly the Lear24 doing the good work of air ambulance.

The story about the airline pilot who quit to take up instructing full time, now that's what we all should want in a "calling".

It's just that when you choose to be a pilot at a young age and sink yourself into a lot of debt trying to do it, we don't really know what we want out of life. We only will be able to tell once we are there and haved moved on to greener pastures and realize that the grass wasn't greener up close.

There is also such a thing as having the qualities it takes to become the 777 captain at American Airlines. Natural selection takes care of a lot of that too, it still is nicer too see somebody truly happy instructing in a 152, than seeing the 777-co pilot that is only a seat filler...
 
This dude cracks me up. First of all, is he actually assuming that major airline jobs are good jobs? *I* personally don't think they are. With at least four major airlines in BK right now, with paycuts being shoved down their throats, the threat of liquidation (no job) right behind it, I'm not sure that qualifies as a good job. Oh, and how many major airline pilots are furloughed right now? And, um, how many US airlines are flying the good ole' B744 right now? I can think of two pax carriers, and I'm not well versed in cargo so I can't say who's got what on that side of the fence. I once heard that if you weren't hired on at United by your 28th birthday, you would never become PIC on the 744 for them. Talk about a lot of dreams flushed down the toi-o-let.

I haven't touched a yoke in three years. However, I still have a current medical, more or less to make sure I can continue to meet standard... I need it for the "other" aviation job I'm pursuing. (Okay, I don't "need" it, but it's a reasonable approximation to the medical I need to have so it will suffice for now) I hold a PPL only, but plan on finishing the instrument, commercial, and CFI/II/MEI ratings when I have the money and time. MAYBE I will contract fly one in awhile, who knows.

If I were asked what existing flying job would be my dream job, I could name it in a heartbeat. There's a certain Lear 31 based somewhere in DC for a Maryland based insurance company. There's four or five pilots for the aircraft, each pilot probably flies three or four days each week, is home every night, rarely flies on the weekends, and is compensated fairly well. Funny, for a dream job, it ain't an airliner and it's a pretty small plane. I guess my priorities and goals are messed up.
 
smellthejeta said:
If I were asked what existing flying job would be my dream job, I could name it in a heartbeat. There's a certain Lear 31 based somewhere in DC for a Maryland based insurance company. There's four or five pilots for the aircraft, each pilot probably flies three or four days each week, is home every night, rarely flies on the weekends, and is compensated fairly well. Funny, for a dream job, it ain't an airliner and it's a pretty small plane. I guess my priorities and goals are messed up.
That sounds like a pretty cool gig.
 
I fly 3-4 days each month, 5-10 overnights per year, schedule is known 60-90 days in advance and the pay is excellent.

I've never applied to an airline as I've never wanted to work for one, yet every airline pilot I know has asked if we're hiring.

FWIW- I found this job after it was posted on FlightInfo.
 

Latest posts

Latest resources

Back
Top Bottom