Scary Numbers

[ToiletDuck]

*all* comm and ATP holders are working pilots and 70% of private pilots *will* be.

That 70% is BS i'm sorry I don't care how you cut it. If you really want me to find the answers to this then I will but I already know right now that 70% is just complete BS.

Rule of thumb is you need three accurate sorces to make something reliable. If I find just one article saying something opposite then you're whole argument is already lost. Try and find three sources.

 

[Skyline]

Details and bashing

Lets just forget about the details. Forget about the term "statistics" Ignore my statements that this little exercise of mine was largely based upon my own assumptions and lets examine it on a more basic level. Someone claimed that less than 20% of all pilots were currently working as professional pilots. If over half of all pilots are either commercial or ATP then at least 30% are unemployed. I am sure that most of the people who got an ATP did it with professional desires and now a large number of them are not working. You can choose to look at these numbers however you like. To me it seems that most of us will not make it to our career goals. Does anyone suggest otherwise? Perhaps if more of you were flying at a regional airlines you would be able to hear some sad stories the captains tell of missed interviews and broken dreams.

Don't get me wrong I am not trying to be a dream killer. It just seems to me to be obvious that there is simply not enough room for most of us out there at the best companies. If your dream is to fly a crop duster then don't comment here. I am not addressing you. If you are going to tell me that the regionals are great then I am sure you will be very happy. What I am taking about are the chances that the average off the street person has to make it, before 35, to a good company. To me it seems that the numbers claim that we have a 1 in 10 chance. If that is alright with you then go for it. For those of you with self preservation instincts then you had better take a hard look. Just by the strong response I have gotten from most of you it tells me that you all are thinking it as well.

Skyline

 

[mar]

No argument here

You bet. This industry is highly competitive and all of the sniping and bickering on this forum is symptomatic of that fact.

There are a lot of bad deals, trashed companies and ruined marriages in this business. That's a fact.

I think the real tragedy is the person who enters this business with some expectations of "normalcy" as compared to their "normal" Mon-Fri 9-5 friends.

This job is much better viewed as an "alternative" lifestyle.

I never wanted to work in a cube and commute with the rest of the lemmings so I've picked my poison.

Most adults realize that's Life mostly....pick your poison.

Good luck.

 

[ToiletDuck]

If over half of all pilots are either commercial or ATP then at least 30% are unemployed.

You are still emplying they are trying to work as a pilot. Many do it because they like achieving new goals or because they want the additional training so they can be good at it. I guess 30% unemployed as pilots could be true, but a lot of that 30% might not be trying to be a pilot. Some people just like having a Commercial or ATP license.

I've spent more years trying to get my handicap under par in golf than I have been flying and I have no intention of playing golf professionally.

 

[KigAir]

My only point is that there is a lot of competition and that there are clearly not enough seats to go around. You are right that most of us will quit over time.

You afraid of competition?

 

[Skyline]

Competition

I am not afraid of competition. I am afraid of wasting my life. I am afraid of winding up destitute at 58 after a full career of working.

Toilet Duck

You are right that all those unemployed ATP's and Commercial pilots are probably on to something else by now, but what that means is that they tried and failed. Gave up, threw in the towel. You could claim that a few are really hobby pilots but I am sure that most would raise their hand as being one for the grist mill.

The majority of us will end up spending our careers at the regionals or giving up. There just isn't enough room for everyone in fact only a slim few will make it.

If you are under 30 and in the left seat of an RJ I would say that you were in a good place. They have a one in three shot. If you are under 28 and the Captain of a 121 turboprop you stand a fair chance. They might have 5 to one odds. Much outside of that is slim pickins.

Skyline

 

[FN FAL]

I am not afraid of competition. I am afraid of wasting my life. I am afraid of winding up destitute at 58 after a full career of working.

Toilet Duck

You are right that all those unemployed ATP's and Commercial pilots are probably on to something else by now, but what that means is that they tried and failed. Gave up, threw in the towel. You could claim that a few are really hobby pilots but I am sure that most would raise their hand as being one for the grist mill.

The majority of us will end up spending our careers at the regionals or giving up. There just isn't enough room for everyone in fact only a slim few will make it.

If you are under 30 and in the left seat of an RJ I would say that you were in a good place. They have a one in three shot. If you are under 28 and the Captain of a 121 turboprop you stand a fair chance. They might have 5 to one odds. Much outside of that is slim pickins.

Skyline

Fair chance? At what, being happy to be in a profession?

In my profession, I grind a stinky, homely, slow, noisy, unpressurized, simple ass, single engine turboprop through the sky. Today, as I sat in that "trawler" of an airplane, I saw my aircraft shadow bouncing closer and further away on the clouds with that goofy prism rainbow, while I enjoyed a cup of joe and the morning news on the ADF. I then reminded myself once again...it sure beats the hell out of deboning chickens for a living!

Just because THEY packaged a dream and put spin on it, it doesn't mean you're a loser because you find satisfaction in a postion lesser than the package deal promotion. Find the satisfaction...that's what I did.

It's all in what you make of it.

 

[bigD]

Fair chance? At what, being happy to be in a profession?

In my profession, I grind a stinky, homely, slow, noisy, unpressurized, simple ass, single engine turboprop through the sky. Today, as I sat in that "trawler" of an airplane, I saw my aircraft shadow bouncing closer and further away on the clouds with that goofy prism rainbow, while I enjoyed a cup of joe and the morning news on the ADF. I then reminded myself once again...it sure beats the hell out of deboning chickens for a living!

Just because THEY packaged a dream and put spin on it, it doesn't mean you're a loser because you find satisfaction in a postion lesser than the package deal promotion. Find the satisfaction...that's what I did.

It's all in what you make of it.

Great post.

 

[FlyChicaga]

FN FAL, do the chickens have large talons?

Good post. Exactly how I feel.

 

[Pedro]

I third the above comments!

 

[avbug]

I find the notion that pilots should seek an airline career, and not finding that, consider themselves a failure, increadibly arrogant.

Perhaps if you think that only airline pilots are professionals, then yes, you might by right, skyline. Perhaps if you think that only pilots who fly for a major airline are successful professional pilots, you might be right, skyline. Perhaps if you feel that every other job out there is somehow beneath flying for an airline, you might be right, skyline.

But you're not.

Pleanty of seats abound, plenty of opportunities to work.

Finding yourself 58 years old without all the toys makes you a failure, does it?

In many lands, surviving to 58 is a huge success. One man's ceiling is another arrogant man's floor, right?

When I was a kid, we'd read stories about other kids who were so poor they couldn't rub two nickles together. We seldom had two quarters to rub together. I understood the kids in those stories, and I wondered if they wanted to fly as badly as I did. As I still do.

I'm grateful every time I strap into an airplane, insanely so. Your concepts presuppose too much. I know a lot of people who would give up most of what they have for the opportunity to have the privilege to fly. Many people start with just that in mind; it represents the fulfillment of their greatest dream. No great aspirations of grandeur, no plans to slog it out whining about union issues and lost pensions and furloughs. Just simple, free, fulfilling flight.

For those who do desire to fly and be paid for that unbelievable privilege, the opportunities are there, and a job awaits every soul that wants one. Your statistics, and the interpretations thereof, are in error.

 

[Skyline]

Needs

For those of you who are truly disciples of the religion and love of aviation I tip my hat. The world needs monks of the sky or else how will our crops get sprayed, checks delivered or medevac flights get done.

I came from a different generation and from a different set of expectations. My points and statements are solely for those who desire a lucrative major airline career. If you find the love sitting in a Lear at 3:00AM than good for you I am sure that you will have plenty of opportunities to be happy. I feel that most people start out with that 747-400 in mind and a 250K pay check. Those are the folks that I am trying to reach. Some people want a stable life, health insurance, retirement plans, 18+ days off a month, respect, upper middle class income and the ability to properly provide for ones family.

If you think that it is reward enough to watch ice crystals form on the leading edge then you are in luck because there are an unlimited number of positions for those of you who like that kind of abuse. You can kiss your plane good night and then commit suicide when the money runs out in your short, short retirement. We all start out with moon beam eyes and the latest flying magazine under our arm, but sooner or later you need to figure out how to make a life and living out of it. For most people that means a good job at a major airline. However, There just simply isn't enough room for everyone.

Deboning chickens is not a fair analogy. If you had the determination to make it as a pro-pilot then you could have done a lot of things that paid much better. Most people blow 150K on four years of college and pilot licences. They could have become a doctor, but instead they are earning 16K flying a Seneca across the cascades at 4:00am.

Skyline

 

[avbug]

If you think that it is reward enough to watch ice crystals form on the leading edge then you are in luck because there are an unlimited number of positions for those of you who like that kind of abuse. You can kiss your plane good night and then commit suicide when the money runs out in your short, short retirement. We all start out with moon beam eyes and the latest flying magazine under our arm, but sooner or later you need to figure out how to make a life and living out of it. For most people that means a good job at a major airline.

I think that is one of the most condescending, if not arrogant things I've ever read on flight info.

You can kiss your airplane good night and then commit suicide...what an uttery stupid thing to say.

I do know pilots who became pilots purely for the money, and I don't know one of them that isn't bitter and miserable. Much like you.

I know a lot of other pilots who fly because it does make a living, and it's one we feel grateful to do. I've flown freight, single engine and multie engine heavy tankers, certain government assignments, skydivers, hauled banners, charter, flight instruction, air ambulance, air attack, crop dusting and aerial application, airline, fractional, corporate, and a few other things in there. Hauled a glider or two. Even gyroplanes. Loved the J-3 cub.

Still do.

Now I do have family members who have committed suicide. I have friends who said good night and then shot themselves. Not pilots, mind you, but people to whom your trite little snapshot of life took on real meaning. Me, I am still here, go figure.

At first your posts had the appearance of one who is drunk, who is depressed, who is rambling and rattling, and bitter. But if this is the case, you've been down or drunk for too long, and it's time to get some help. Are you feeling suicidal? Say so. We can get you help right now. Things are not as bad as you may think. Help is nothing more than a change in perception; it's easy, and the pain really does go away. Not so, with suicide.

We've had a couple of those on this board already, nobody wants to see another one. Say the word, here or by PM, and you've got no shortage of people who are willing to talk, trust me.

Your choice.

 

[Hawker rider]

Don't forget that there are a lot of foreign pilots that hold an ATP or CPL that came over here to gain experience and are flying for international airlines.

The best thing about the FAA license is that it's good for life, once it's issued you'll kep it unless it'll get revoked for some reason.



PS. I have only read the first few posts when I wrote this reply, I will read the rest later.

 

[FN FAL]

Deboning chickens is not a fair analogy.

Sure it is...you can't re-bone a chicken, just like you can't un-hypnotize the lemmings that flight schools massage into believing the "Big Lie". I thought I was quite clear on that?

 

[bigD]

Once I got the plane settled into cruise this morning, I actually began to think about this thread and the things that FN FAL said. A couple of thoughts came to mind:

Like FN FAL, I'm not flying a 747. I'm pretty far from it. Nonetheless, I absolutely love my job. There was a time when I was making good money flying a desk in the tech industry. Every day, I looked out my window and wished I was at the airport flying. Now that I spend my days flying, not once have I looked out the window and wished I was at a desk.

My second thought was that Skyline is a jackass.

 

[Hawker rider]

Well it once again serves for me as a reminder to first read the whole thread before replying to it.

For what it is worth, I do fly a 747 and it's a nice job, but it was a lot more gratifying to fly the Lear24 doing the good work of air ambulance.

The story about the airline pilot who quit to take up instructing full time, now that's what we all should want in a "calling".

It's just that when you choose to be a pilot at a young age and sink yourself into a lot of debt trying to do it, we don't really know what we want out of life. We only will be able to tell once we are there and haved moved on to greener pastures and realize that the grass wasn't greener up close.

There is also such a thing as having the qualities it takes to become the 777 captain at American Airlines. Natural selection takes care of a lot of that too, it still is nicer too see somebody truly happy instructing in a 152, than seeing the 777-co pilot that is only a seat filler...

 

[smellthejeta]

This dude cracks me up. First of all, is he actually assuming that major airline jobs are good jobs? *I* personally don't think they are. With at least four major airlines in BK right now, with paycuts being shoved down their throats, the threat of liquidation (no job) right behind it, I'm not sure that qualifies as a good job. Oh, and how many major airline pilots are furloughed right now? And, um, how many US airlines are flying the good ole' B744 right now? I can think of two pax carriers, and I'm not well versed in cargo so I can't say who's got what on that side of the fence. I once heard that if you weren't hired on at United by your 28th birthday, you would never become PIC on the 744 for them. Talk about a lot of dreams flushed down the toi-o-let.

I haven't touched a yoke in three years. However, I still have a current medical, more or less to make sure I can continue to meet standard... I need it for the "other" aviation job I'm pursuing. (Okay, I don't "need" it, but it's a reasonable approximation to the medical I need to have so it will suffice for now) I hold a PPL only, but plan on finishing the instrument, commercial, and CFI/II/MEI ratings when I have the money and time. MAYBE I will contract fly one in awhile, who knows.

If I were asked what existing flying job would be my dream job, I could name it in a heartbeat. There's a certain Lear 31 based somewhere in DC for a Maryland based insurance company. There's four or five pilots for the aircraft, each pilot probably flies three or four days each week, is home every night, rarely flies on the weekends, and is compensated fairly well. Funny, for a dream job, it ain't an airliner and it's a pretty small plane. I guess my priorities and goals are messed up.

 

[FN FAL]

If I were asked what existing flying job would be my dream job, I could name it in a heartbeat. There's a certain Lear 31 based somewhere in DC for a Maryland based insurance company. There's four or five pilots for the aircraft, each pilot probably flies three or four days each week, is home every night, rarely flies on the weekends, and is compensated fairly well. Funny, for a dream job, it ain't an airliner and it's a pretty small plane. I guess my priorities and goals are messed up.

That sounds like a pretty cool gig.

 

[HMR]

I fly 3-4 days each month, 5-10 overnights per year, schedule is known 60-90 days in advance and the pay is excellent.

I've never applied to an airline as I've never wanted to work for one, yet every airline pilot I know has asked if we're hiring.

FWIW- I found this job after it was posted on FlightInfo.