Scary Numbers

[MFRskyknight]

I got these numbers from the AOPA web site.

I got a hat from the AOPA web site. It isn't getting me the chicks I thought it would. Must be broken...

Commercial 127,389

Private 250,150

Student 83,567

Instructor 85,865

Unless I'm mistaken, "Student", in terms of FAA certificates, refers to anyone working on a Private license, right? So on top of the 83,567 current "student" pilots out there, there would be a number of private pilots working on their instrument, comm, ME, etc. Granted, it's probably combined a smaller number than all the primary students, but I wouldn't think there'd be a shortage of work for market-savvy, quality CFIs.

Anyone who gets a CFI is nuts.

Agreed. Can't wait to get mine!!

 

[mattpilot]

Unless I'm mistaken, "Student", in terms of FAA certificates, refers to anyone working on a Private license, right? So on top of the 83,567 current "student" pilots out there, there would be a number of private pilots working on their instrument, comm, ME, etc. Granted, it's probably combined a smaller number than all the primary students, but I wouldn't think there'd be a shortage of work for market-savvy, quality CFIs.

And i'm guessing here that "student" refers to anyone who has a "student pilot certificate". "Students" are those who actually have a student certificate and thus fit the definition of Part 61.

It is not anyone who takes flight lessons, only those who chose to get a "student pilot certificate". So that could, but not necessarily does, exclude most pre-solo students from the count. Now i say "not necessarily" because i got my student certificate before i took my first flying lesson.

How else would they keep track of the number of students?

 

[Skyline]

Avbug

No, skyline. Those are stats. Meaningless stats. First, you make the assumption that there are three hundred thousand professional pilots because you added the number of ATPs to commercial pilots. If you stop and think about it before posting more on this, you'll realize that all ATP's are commercial...and many of us hold ATP-this, commercial-that. In other words, many of us are one and the same, from both lists. Further, a great many also hold private pilot privileges in something else, (eg, private pilot-balloon, etc). On that alone, those numbers go out the window.

Second, not all those pilots are working. Many of those certificates are for 60 and older, and many retired. Many have gone on to do other things. Others simply don't work.

The statistics you quoted are also wrong, because most working professional pilots have been or are currently holders of a flight instructor certificate. It's also axiomatic that most of the instructors who hold certificates do not teach, or if they do, it's very, very little.

You need to do a little more research.

Avbug

No, You can't call these stats. The numbers have been taken into consideration for all the variables that you mentioned. These are the facts. They are the true numbers of pilots out there with current medicals. Here is the link http://www.aopa.org/special/newsroom/stats/pilots_state.html . After two decades in the industry I still didn't know very many who made it to major, so I did some research. Flying Magazine is the one who is good at bending the statistics.

Skyline

 

[Skyline]

Details

Even it you left the pvt pilot numbers out totally there are about 30 to 50 pilots out there for every new job at the majors. Just military attrition alone could satisfy the needs of the airlines and have a few thousand left overs every year. There are other jobs in aviation but my point is that there are very few truly good ones to go around. Corporate and other markets will have a few but it can't be too many. The reality is that most of us will end up as a regional captain or flying a Lear someplace or perhaps as an expatriate flying overseas. I have already had most of those jobs and they are no good at all. None of those sound good to me.

Skyline

 

[siucavflight]

Just wondering how you arrived at the fact that 70% of private pilots is intending to go pro, I would guess tht the number would be seriously less than that, maybe closer to 10%

 

[Skyline]

Pvt Pilot

Given that over the years the percentage of pilots with professional licenses has gone up considerably to the point where they comprise over half the total number of all pilots it then would be easy to assume that more than half of the private pilots out there intent to be a pro, since a portion will not advance past private. There are simply less people who can afford to do this as a hobby anymore. By 2020 it will be near 100% of private to pro. The latest sport pilot licence is further evidence of that.

Skyline

 

[siucavflight]

Given that over the years the percentage of pilots with professional licenses has gone up considerably to the point where they comprise over half the total number of all pilots it then would be easy to assume that more than half of the private pilots out there intent to be a pro, since a portion will not advance past private. There are simply less people who can afford to do this as a hobby anymore. By 2020 it will be near 100% of private to pro. The latest sport pilot licence is further evidence of that.

Skyline

Very interesting, I love pilots, they know it all.

 

[Kingairrick]

Even it you left the pvt pilot numbers out totally there are about 30 to 50 pilots out there for every new job at the majors. Just military attrition alone could satisfy the needs of the airlines and have a few thousand left overs every year. There are other jobs in aviation but my point is that there are very few truly good ones to go around. Corporate and other markets will have a few but it can't be too many. The reality is that most of us will end up as a regional captain or flying a Lear someplace or perhaps as an expatriate flying overseas. I have already had most of those jobs and they are no good at all. None of those sound good to me.

Skyline

So what was your point? Are you telling everyone who has aspirations to go to a major to give up and go to law school? Or, are you giving them the heads up because you are quitting yourself?

I agree with Avbug that what you have done is take FACTUAL statistics and inferred your own conclusions from them. It's easy to do. It makes the whole argument suspect.

I have also been in this industry for 20 years, and so far in the past 12 months, I have seen every one of my friends that were qualified, and had the desire to go, get hired by a major airline.

There ARE quality jobs out there for quality people.

 

[Skyline]

Point

My only point is that there is a lot of competition and that there are clearly not enough seats to go around. You are right that most of us will quit over time. Sooner or later most of us will have come to that conclusion. The reality is that those who stick with it will be lucky to end up as an RJ Captain and if that is acceptable to you then great. I know more people who died with a yoke in hand that those who made it to the majors. I also believe that I live in an area of the country that has a lower chance than other places. Go to the link yourself. Look up the same numbers. You decide, but to me it seems clear and fits with what I have witnessed in the industry.

Skyline

 

[Skyline]

Major Airline

I have also been in this industry for 20 years, and so far in the past 12 months, I have seen every one of my friends that were qualified, and had the desire to go, get hired by a major airline.

QUOTE]

What is your definition of a Major airline? I think skywest qualifies as one but I wouldn't call it a good job.

Skyline