Scary Numbers

[ToiletDuck]

*all* comm and ATP holders are working pilots and 70% of private pilots *will* be.

That 70% is BS i'm sorry I don't care how you cut it. If you really want me to find the answers to this then I will but I already know right now that 70% is just complete BS.

Rule of thumb is you need three accurate sorces to make something reliable. If I find just one article saying something opposite then you're whole argument is already lost. Try and find three sources.

 

[Skyline]

Details and bashing

Lets just forget about the details. Forget about the term "statistics" Ignore my statements that this little exercise of mine was largely based upon my own assumptions and lets examine it on a more basic level. Someone claimed that less than 20% of all pilots were currently working as professional pilots. If over half of all pilots are either commercial or ATP then at least 30% are unemployed. I am sure that most of the people who got an ATP did it with professional desires and now a large number of them are not working. You can choose to look at these numbers however you like. To me it seems that most of us will not make it to our career goals. Does anyone suggest otherwise? Perhaps if more of you were flying at a regional airlines you would be able to hear some sad stories the captains tell of missed interviews and broken dreams.

Don't get me wrong I am not trying to be a dream killer. It just seems to me to be obvious that there is simply not enough room for most of us out there at the best companies. If your dream is to fly a crop duster then don't comment here. I am not addressing you. If you are going to tell me that the regionals are great then I am sure you will be very happy. What I am taking about are the chances that the average off the street person has to make it, before 35, to a good company. To me it seems that the numbers claim that we have a 1 in 10 chance. If that is alright with you then go for it. For those of you with self preservation instincts then you had better take a hard look. Just by the strong response I have gotten from most of you it tells me that you all are thinking it as well.

Skyline

 

[mar]

No argument here

You bet. This industry is highly competitive and all of the sniping and bickering on this forum is symptomatic of that fact.

There are a lot of bad deals, trashed companies and ruined marriages in this business. That's a fact.

I think the real tragedy is the person who enters this business with some expectations of "normalcy" as compared to their "normal" Mon-Fri 9-5 friends.

This job is much better viewed as an "alternative" lifestyle.

I never wanted to work in a cube and commute with the rest of the lemmings so I've picked my poison.

Most adults realize that's Life mostly....pick your poison.

Good luck.

 

[ToiletDuck]

If over half of all pilots are either commercial or ATP then at least 30% are unemployed.

You are still emplying they are trying to work as a pilot. Many do it because they like achieving new goals or because they want the additional training so they can be good at it. I guess 30% unemployed as pilots could be true, but a lot of that 30% might not be trying to be a pilot. Some people just like having a Commercial or ATP license.

I've spent more years trying to get my handicap under par in golf than I have been flying and I have no intention of playing golf professionally.

 

[KigAir]

My only point is that there is a lot of competition and that there are clearly not enough seats to go around. You are right that most of us will quit over time.

You afraid of competition?

 

[Skyline]

Competition

I am not afraid of competition. I am afraid of wasting my life. I am afraid of winding up destitute at 58 after a full career of working.

Toilet Duck

You are right that all those unemployed ATP's and Commercial pilots are probably on to something else by now, but what that means is that they tried and failed. Gave up, threw in the towel. You could claim that a few are really hobby pilots but I am sure that most would raise their hand as being one for the grist mill.

The majority of us will end up spending our careers at the regionals or giving up. There just isn't enough room for everyone in fact only a slim few will make it.

If you are under 30 and in the left seat of an RJ I would say that you were in a good place. They have a one in three shot. If you are under 28 and the Captain of a 121 turboprop you stand a fair chance. They might have 5 to one odds. Much outside of that is slim pickins.

Skyline

 

[FN FAL]

I am not afraid of competition. I am afraid of wasting my life. I am afraid of winding up destitute at 58 after a full career of working.

Toilet Duck

You are right that all those unemployed ATP's and Commercial pilots are probably on to something else by now, but what that means is that they tried and failed. Gave up, threw in the towel. You could claim that a few are really hobby pilots but I am sure that most would raise their hand as being one for the grist mill.

The majority of us will end up spending our careers at the regionals or giving up. There just isn't enough room for everyone in fact only a slim few will make it.

If you are under 30 and in the left seat of an RJ I would say that you were in a good place. They have a one in three shot. If you are under 28 and the Captain of a 121 turboprop you stand a fair chance. They might have 5 to one odds. Much outside of that is slim pickins.

Skyline

Fair chance? At what, being happy to be in a profession?

In my profession, I grind a stinky, homely, slow, noisy, unpressurized, simple ass, single engine turboprop through the sky. Today, as I sat in that "trawler" of an airplane, I saw my aircraft shadow bouncing closer and further away on the clouds with that goofy prism rainbow, while I enjoyed a cup of joe and the morning news on the ADF. I then reminded myself once again...it sure beats the hell out of deboning chickens for a living!

Just because THEY packaged a dream and put spin on it, it doesn't mean you're a loser because you find satisfaction in a postion lesser than the package deal promotion. Find the satisfaction...that's what I did.

It's all in what you make of it.

 

[bigD]

Fair chance? At what, being happy to be in a profession?

In my profession, I grind a stinky, homely, slow, noisy, unpressurized, simple ass, single engine turboprop through the sky. Today, as I sat in that "trawler" of an airplane, I saw my aircraft shadow bouncing closer and further away on the clouds with that goofy prism rainbow, while I enjoyed a cup of joe and the morning news on the ADF. I then reminded myself once again...it sure beats the hell out of deboning chickens for a living!

Just because THEY packaged a dream and put spin on it, it doesn't mean you're a loser because you find satisfaction in a postion lesser than the package deal promotion. Find the satisfaction...that's what I did.

It's all in what you make of it.

Great post.

 

[FlyChicaga]

FN FAL, do the chickens have large talons?

Good post. Exactly how I feel.

 

[Pedro]

I third the above comments!