Quotas are a pretty ugly way to protect premerger groups and their "intent" is to ensure that attrition from one premerger group is filled by its respective premerger pilots. These quotas are no different. Without fleet growth, these quotas will always be in play for their entire 5 year duration and the premerger group to get the most upgrades will be the group with the most captain attrition.
PCL was well over their -200 quota but with the approximate 10 CAs leaving per month from the premerger PCL group we will be back at our quota in the next few months. Considering that nobody ever seems to leave Mesaba, I would anticipate that their premerger FO's won't be seeing a lot of upgrades. Maybe that will change once they become Pinnacle pilots.
Attrition for the former MSA CA's will be as great, if not greater than the attrition for the PCL group. Plus you forget how the top of the list was constructed. When a 900 CA leaves a MSA 200 CA will take his place.
One small surprise in the award was the very small number of PCL FO's that bid for the 900. It seems to me if you were a year or more from upgrade that would be the AC to be in. Note that one of the displaced PCL CA's went to 900 FO in MEM. As the 200 schedules get widgetized they are starting to suck badly.