Pilot Shortage

[bobbysamd]

Still try . . .

Good analysis, Brian. I would add that many of us forget, or don't remember, that there was a pilot shortage as Brian defined in the 1960s. Places like United were hiring people with Commercials at the mins or even with Privates (as an aside, United still does, sometimes!!). But, that was only briefly in the sixties.

Despite the deceptive, shifting sands of Kit's pilot shortage, people should still try for the career. Just realize that attaining your goals won't be the easy, breezy experience as Kit and his sycophants lead you to believe. It takes a lot more to get a pilot job than just being persistent and optimistic.

 

[Timebuilder]

Right Bobby.

Nowdays, it takes a LOT more.

 

[bigD]

For me - I don't really care how long I have to wait, as long as I get there at some point. Yeah, it'd be nice to make the bigger money earlier, but I'm beginning to realize that the process of getting there is half the fun. So what if I have to instruct another year or two, or spend some more time flying RJ's or Brasilias? It's still flying. Each step of the process is going to be a blast in its own way.

I just see a couple of my buddies plunking down 40K and getting their 1000/200 in like 18 months, and wonder how much time they've had to sit back and really enjoy being up there? Do they ever fly a cub to a 1500' grass strip to get some BBQ in the small town nearby? Or do the date flight where you watch the sun go down from the air and have dinner somewhere 300nm away? Not to knock the rapid training method - it's certainly faster and cheaper!

Yeah, I know - I don't have a family to think about yet, so maybe I'm being naive, but at the moment I'm just enjoying where I am now, and will worry about the airlines when I finally get the minimums to apply.

 

[bobbysamd]

Good attitude

Absolutely. Part of the fun is getting there. Some of my best experiences in aviation were when I soloed my first student, when I soloed CAP cadets during two CAP flight encampments, running one of the encampments, and building something like 250 hours of multi in one semester instructing at ERAU. (Finally) getting a phone call inviting me to my first interview was a good experience. My best memory: The last day of my last job before starting aviation full time. Arriving at that day was a journey in and of itself.

Enjoy the ride. There's plenty to enjoy.

 

[publisher]

fun

I would agree that getting there is half the fun.

Most of the time when I tell people to consider an accelerated program, it is someone who is a mid life career changer, older and someone trying to catch up. In addition, sometimes the persons personality is such that they are a lousy instructor and that is just not the route.

As to Brian, to me there is a shortage any time I cannot find someone I want. If I have to lower my standards, there is a shortage. I am not sure that there is not a shortage today of people with the work ethic I want. The me generation is not what I want so there is a shortage.

Lastly, life is competitive. You do not go become a lawyer or doctor because someone like Kit or some college runs ads about the doctor shortage. Pilots have always had the giant ego and the confidant nature,,,,,, unless they were being interviewed by a chief pilot,,,,that the competition should not matter.

 

[enigma]

amazed by you

.............. I am not sure that there is not a shortage today of people with the work ethic I want. The me generation is not what I want so there is a shortage. .................

Man you amaze me. I just can't imagine how someone who seemingly makes a living ( I assume that publishing a magazine is your livelyhood) from pilots, and who professes a love of the industry can have such a low level of respect for the people that constitute his bread and butter.

I don't know who you are observing when you come to the conclusion that there is a shortage of people/pilots with a proper work ethic, but it isn't anyone that flys for a living. When was the last time you spent a week with a ditch driver, or even a Brasilia crew flying 7/8/9 legs a day? When was the last time you went through upgrade training? Even the PFT'rs that I despise still have to work their tails off to succeed.

Are you an employer of professional pilots?, or are you just speaking hypothetically when you say that the me generation is not what you want?

For that matter, just what do you want, indentured servants or maybe just plain slaves?

later

 

[publisher]

Enigma

Enigma,

Sorry about that. I was using an actual example from a Director of Operations of a Part 121 carrier who will remain nameless. It was a discussion on crew scheduling and all the people who did not show for work.

While he may have been facetious in making the remark, I know where he was coming from. There are many today who worry more about their time off than their time on and it is not necessarily the younger generation.

I have a friend who is an American Captain who was on reserve and who whined when they called him to actually go fly a trip. It interfered with his golf and fishing.

You have to read these things with the grain of reality that is there and not get too offended. If you fly the line, you know some of these people.

 

[Timebuilder]

I knew a guy like that.

He would get all bent out of shape when I would "volunteer" to fly his 767 if he had a tee time he wanted to make.

Talk about a shift in priorities....

 

[enigma]

Re: Enigma

Enigma,

Sorry about that. I was using an actual example from a Director of Operations of a Part 121 carrier who will remain nameless. It was a discussion on crew scheduling and all the people who did not show for work.

Publisher

If I missed something from the ongoing string that would have explained your post, I appologize. But I didn't see anything in that post that would have indicated that you were quoting someone else. I know, because you've said so, that you sometimes write some things to get a reaction; and I considered that before I responded, but I couldn't find any way to justify that kind of attitude towards hard working pilots.

 

[NYRANGERS]

I knew a guy like that.

He would get all bent out of shape when I would "volunteer" to fly his 767 if he had a tee time he wanted to make.

Talk about a shift in priorities....

This is why high paying mainline jobs are becomming a thing of the past.

Do you mean volunteer to fly his 767 for free?

 

[publisher]

Hurry

Sometimes when I get in a hurry, I skip stuff just trying to make the point, which was, anytime I (proverbial I) cannot hire who I want, there is a shortage to me.

As with any group, there are a bunch of hard working pilots, and , there are those on cruise control. The American guy is my friend but I don't see him getting too stressed out having to crank that 767 to South America and back every other week or two.


When I get paid to write, we take a bit more time.

 

[Timebuilder]

>>This is why high paying mainline jobs are becomming a thing of the past.

Do you mean volunteer to fly his 767 for free?

Let's not go down that road again...

I would tell him that to remind him that a lot of guys would love to be inconvenienced in that way, and to further remind him that this had been a goal for him, and he should be d*** thankful for the job he had. I'd have been happy to relieve him of $200 per hr for a flight to Paris!!

 

[NYRANGERS]

>>This is why high paying mainline jobs are becomming a thing of the past.

Do you mean volunteer to fly his 767 for free?

Let's not go down that road again...

I would tell him that to remind him that a lot of guys would love to be inconvenienced in that way, and to further remind him that this had been a goal for him, and he should be d*** thankful for the job he had. I'd have been happy to relieve him of $200 per hr for a flight to Paris!!

Fair enough, I just wasn't sure what you meant by you r previous statement. Sorry for implying otherwise.

I am thankful for my job....

 

[bobbysamd]

Absolutely

I would have jumped for joy had all my commuter job-hunting efforts resulted in just one invitation to class. I would have been joyous, still, just to hold a good line and drive around a 1900 for several years. RJ controversies notwithstanding, to be in the right place at the right time for an RJ seat would have been beyond my wildest imagination.

 

[TurboS7]

We had to turn down a 40K 727 charter tonight because we didn't have any crews....yes there is a pilot shortage on Sunday nights, holidays, and when the weather is great for golf. It is a great life but somebody has to do it.

 

[Flightjock30]

There certainly is not a pilot shortage in the civilian aviation world, but there is one in military aviation.

 

[bobbysamd]

Military v. Civilian Pilot Shortage

Perhaps. But, you can't compare the two. Many factors govern the number of military pilot slots, such as whether the military feels it needs pilots.

Maybe what you really should look at is if there is a shortage of people wanting to be military pilots. To the best of my knowledge, there is no shortage of wannabes. The military sets specific, narrow criteria for trainees and there might not be enough of them available. This may be a situation of whether there are enough qualified applicants available for the slots to be filled.

In the case of the civilian pilot "shortage," there is never a shortage because the airlines adjust their requirements according to their needs. In times such as now, they raise the quals. In better hiring times, when they're not running short of better-qualified applicants, they lower their requirements and the void is filled. On the other hand, the military's requirements are rigid.

 

[Austpilot]

I know I keep saying it, but there may not be a pilot shortage in your part of the world, but there will be in the Asia Pacific soon if the future aircraft orders are anything to go by.

 

[skydiverdriver]

Austpilot

So, do you think they will be hiring expats for those jobs? Which asian airlines are ordering planes? Thanks for the info.

 

[PilotOnTheRise]

I believe what the guy who originally posted the question about pilot shortages, was really wanting to know, is whether getting into aviation is a good thing at this time to do. Will he have a chance of getting hired down the road? I do not believe there will be, or is a pilot shortage as far as there being no pilots to take the places of retiring pilots. However, I do believe the rumor of all the pilots that will retire over the next 10 years, which is alot of them. The part that makes there "no shortage" is the young training pilots like myself and many others who will move in to take the regional jobs, that went to the majors to take the retired pilot's jobs. In that respect, there is no "shortage" in pilots, however, there will be a NEED for them and plenty of jobs for people like myself to get. But, also plenty of young pilots to go after those jobs, again like myself and others currently going after their ratings and building time. So, now is probably one of the best times to get into aviation. I will not be applying to an airline for another few years, and by then, things should be back to normal, as they are already beginning to pick up. The regionals have announced when they will call back their furloughed pilots and some regionals are even hiring again.

 

[jsoceanlord]

you know capitalism can really be a crock, with flight schools having to prostitute themselves and make all lies about shortages, etc. and the feds have to look the other way as schools train suspicious foreigners, etc., all for the almight dollar

that's capitalism.

i'm not dissing it, just saying how it is.

you've also got about a zillion flight students nievely entering flight schools without appreciating the financial obstacles in operating 50 million dollar jets (and consequent lack of jobs to operate them)

flight schools and the feds all encourage that nievete

 

[bobbysamd]

Career Pilot

I agree with Jsoceanlord, especially his last two paragraphs. Just the same, I would say that if you're a young person that you should go for it. Know the risks extremely well and don't be naive about the career. There are no guarantees. You may not make the goal you set for yourself and have to turn elsewhere for a career. There are plenty of people whose careers began and ended at the airport at which they learned to fly.

Pilots will always be hired for many of the reasons Kit Darby and others cite, such as retirements, but you won't see prodigious numbers of pilots hired. Kit's pilot shortage proclamations are sophistries. I appreciate Austpilot's point about hiring at foreign carriers, but those carriers usually hire their nationals before they consider expatriates. Many of these carriers will train their nationals to be pilots and not consider expats.

Older people should think it through carefully before changing careers. Age discrimination exists in hiring, especially at the commuters, and probably elsewhere. There is still plenty to do in aviation besides airline flying, such as corporate, career instructing, and other things.

Once again, know the risks.

 

[Austpilot]

Skydiverdriver

Mate - it depends on the airline, take Cathay Pacific for example - they hire US citizens, Canadians, Kiwis, Aussies, english - pretty much anyone who meets their quals when they interview in various parts of the world and gets through gets hired.

Who knows whats going to happen - I appreciate Bobbysamd's point that some of the majors around the region hire nationals only, but look, I know for a fact that certain airlines are getting cagey as they don't know where they are getting there crews from over the next expansion period. Airlines like Emirates are looking, a mate of mine got hired by them for a 777 slot not that long ago. I know of a steady stream of Australians that are getting into Dragonair, Cathay, Emirates, Japan Air, Singapore Airlines.

Thing that I'm trying to say is that when the airlines get the expansion going - not if, but when, there will be full on hiring, lets face it, you look at the stats, there are comparatively less people learning to fly these days, the numbers going to have to equalise one day, it's the law of averages and the good thing is, as the numbers of trainees drop and the airlines reject those that are not made of the "right stuff" can only leave good opportunities for the ones that are left behind and are serious about an airline career.

The other point is that there will be a global shortage, and with a global shortage comes reduced and or "slackened" nationality requirements - don't laugh - I've seen it happen in Hong Kong, Malaysia and Singapore.

The other thing is most of the Asian carriers prescribe to the UK ATPL in order to upgrade to F/O or command - anyone that knows anything about the UK system would know that it is pretty full on and bluddy expensive!

Contrary to the wank factor as well - airlines like Singapore are criticised for hiring cadet nationals over high time ego bulging crusty old farts - well, these young Singaporean kids and Hong Kong guys in Cathay are very smart kids, they pick up on systems and computers in a tenth of the time it would take an old codger, they also do umteenth hours in the right seat of a Lear 45 around asia before let loose in an S/O's seat of a heavy. Surprisingly enough, it's always these bright young guys in the S/Os seat that pick the mistakes of the two geriatrics in the left and right seats!

No I'm not an S/O - I'm a right seat geriatric on the 747-400!!

 

[TurboS7]

Asia/Pacific, yes what a mass of nothing, imagine flying from Miami to SAN and having not one place to stop for fuel or land. Welcome to the Pacific.

 

[Timebuilder]

>>you know capitalism can really be a crock, with flight schools having to prostitute themselves and make all lies about shortages, etc. and the feds have to look the other way as schools train suspicious foreigners, etc., all for the almight dollar

No, that's the advertising industry.

The feds don't look the other way when foreign nationals are trained. They PAVE the way. Any idea of how many Suadi princes have trained in US figthters over the past 35 years? A whole bunch, to put it mildly. The training of terrorists happened because the socialist element in the US says it isn't politically correct to secure our borders, and deport violators. Capitalism will take full advantage of what US law permits, but it is not the source of the problem. In fact, it is the "keystone" of our freedom. If it were otherwise, you might be told what your life career would be by a government representative while you were in the eighth grade. Flying career? No, comrade Smith. YOU will be a plumber.

Flight schools prostituting themselves? Let's put that to rest. As an American consumer, you are expected to exercise due dilligence, in other words your own investigation, of the schools you attend and the true likelihood of that heavy iron job like the one in the picture. Kit Darby? Ron Popeil? PT Barnum? I'm a little guilty of not doing a better job of investigating, myself. Then again, I had no false hopes of flying a 747 for anyone, since I got into this to fly, not "live large".

If you are just starting out now, you could get a big jet job. It will most likely take you 20 years to get there, but it's possible. Being female and having a father at the airline can shorten that time, but with the shrinkage in large jet jobs, outpacing attrition, it will take much longer than was projected five years ago. The thirst for smaller jets won't dry up any time soon. Old equipment will continually be replaced inthe US, but growth in the "traditional" US majors will be a trickle, at best. The market will continue to grow carriers like Jet Blue, Spirit and Southwest, due to reduced costs. I'd forget about working for Delta, United, American, US Air, etc.

No, Virgina, there never was a pilot shortage. Our laws, the same ones that guarantee our freedoms, let advertisers put a spin on the truth that lets young pilots believe there is a pot of gold waiting for them at the end of the rainbow.

There is a pot of gold, but you are unlikely to get there.

As Walter used to say...."..and that's the way it is".

 

[publisher]

pot of gold

Pot of Gold or not, people will still come to this industry. Believe it or not, there are people who would actually come to do this for $50k a year and be happy as the dickens just to be doing something like that instead of what they do all day.

This is not the result of advertisers, Air Inc's, or anything other than it is way cooler than managing your local hardware store.

 

[bobbysamd]

Yep . . .

I would have been thrilled just to get a class date and would have been happy with $50K, as long as it would have been fair pay and was accompanied by fair treatment.

Looking back, as a single person I could have done quite nicely on $50K a year, notwithstanding other opportunities to earn money on my days off.

 

[Flightjock30]

If you get on with a regional by age 23 and earn a captain slot by age 25 I don't see why you couldn't get on with American, United, or Delta if you had a few thousand hours turbine PIC when those airlines were hiring. If they do happen to hire at that pace again like in the late 1990s that is. But of course supply and demand does play its part and even the most qualified won't make it to the best majors. Good luck.

 

[bssthound]

It ain't what you know . . .

it's who you know.

Nothing is better than having someone who will walk your resume' in to the hiring folks. Like it or not, that's how you stand out from the other 10,000+ applicants in the stack.

 

[Austpilot]

TurboS7?

Oh well, some of us like the challenge that International flying presents - Crossing lots of countries going to Europe is alot like what you were talking about, probably more interesting though.

Fly safe.