Pilot Shortage

[Austpilot]

Well, at the risk of being different and to give you some hope - depending on how far you are prepared to travel, you may indeed find a pilot shortage. I know that here in the Asia Pacific they are predicting an upturn where between now and 2012 there will be a requirement for 28,000 short to mid haul airline pilots,look at the Boeing ans Airbus orders for the Asian carriers. They cannot train that many as the cost of private flying is increasing - over $100 US now for a C152 in the region and also The Asians see merchant banking and IT as a more lucrative job.

You guys need to think out of the square a bit more and not scoff at a simple question - and yes, airlines like Cathay and SIA hire Americans if you are in the right place at the right time, with the right quals.

Sure, they may be an oversupply in the USA - but thats the USA - there is another big wide aviation world out there.

 

[bobbysamd]

It's not that easy, though . . . .

That may be true, but usually these airlines give first preference to their own nationals. What's different about many foreign airlines is they screen and hire people with potential and then train them at their cost and pay them. Sort of a reverse P-F-T. They set up their own schools and/or send their students here for training. For example, Asiana had a big contract program with FlightSafety. They sent students to FSI with zero time and seven months later the students were getting time in Citations.

Also, U.S. pilots have to jump through many hoops to get foreign licenses. Moreover, Cathay, JAL and the others will hire foreign pilots who have high time, high turbine and good time in type. It isn't simple.

Captain Mac, at www.fcilax.com , usually lists foreign airlines who are looking for pilots in his monthly newsletter.

 

[Pilotadjuster]

"The airlines have resumed hiring!"

Quote from TAB Express ad in Flying this month. Also on the ad--"no CFI requited, No college required". "American Eagle, A Tab Express Bridge partner". Gee, I didn't know Eagle had started hiring again. Guess I'll have to tell a friend of mine who was furloughed before ground school....

Seems as if every "major" flight school has a huge ad in this month's Flying; I have a sneeking suspicion the only shortage is of STUDENTS...but call me a cynic....

 

[bobbysamd]

TAB Express

We have a few threads going on that place. In a nutshell, don't believe everything you read. There is no pilot shortage. Schools, and places such as TAB, are always soliciting customers.

Your cynicism is well founded.

 

[Austpilot]

Bobbysamd I can see where you are coming from, but just to quote some figures I have heard lately, Cathay want up to 250 S/O's over the next 2 years, SIA are going to have a huge shortage by 2005, Qantas hiring 150-200 S/O's over the next three years, Emirates looking for up to 200 pilots in the next 18 months,Dragon air recruiting, sure, some of these airlines will take as a preference type endorsed guys, but when I did second round in Hong Kong for Cathay there were three young Americans there, 6 Aussies and a handfull of Kiwis. I guess there is a misnomer in all of this - that is that there will never be a shortage of applicants to the airlines - BUT there will always be a shortage of qualified guys with the "right stuff" for the airlines. And yes, I don't know what the situation is in the USA, I really do feel for all the guys there that have been furloughed etc - I hope you guys have some idea as to the state of care and respect we have for you guys in the USA after 9/11, but things will pick up, it has to, every 10 years there is some huge thing that happens and the industry as we know it slides into a "recession" but it does pick up.

I stand by my claim that there is a shortage of pilots, and there will always be a shortage of pilots - ones that have what it takes - and that will always be the case. And I have no idea what that exact quality is, thats for the psychs and the consultants to figure out - although, I reckon they get it wrong some time!! Judging by some of the wallies that fly around!!

Systems and energy management is what being an airline pilot is all about these days - at least thats what I reckon!

I take my hat off to all you guys in the USA that are doing it tough - I know I've digressed a bit on this one, but I hope and pray we can all get back to normality soon, we all deserve it for the work, sacrifices and commitment we have shown, and I tell you what - no psychotic middle eastern freak is going to ruin my dream, or foist his pathetic views on whatever I want to achieve in life.

For those that are on furlough still - keep positive and be patient.

Safe flying.

 

[bobbysamd]

Pilot shortage v. applicant shortage

True, there is no shortage of applicants. I would agree that there would be a shortage of "qualified" pilots if the airlines fixed their qualifications at definite values. Then, we would have a baseline with which to measure quals and determine if a "shortage" exists. However, the airlines play fast and loose with their baseline quals when they cannot get enough people who meet their requirements. E.g., when they don't have enough people available, say, with 3000 hours total, they simply lower that requirement to, say, 2500 hours. Nature abhors a vacuum, so, the folks with 2500 hours fill it. And, all of a sudden, no applicant shortage because, of course, there's no pilot shortage.

The airlines still manage to train these people up to standards, so it's hard to say they can't find people with the "right stuff." Maybe, less experience. Don't forget, many of these same airlines operate their own schools and train zero-time people to standards their way. These people hit the line at 500 hours. For that matter, consider the military. The military starts with good-quality material, graduates from its academies and ROTC. It trains these people to fly all kinds of aircraft in 300 hours. So, high time, low time, mid time, you can't say there's a pilot shortage.

 

[Kit Darby]

Kit Darby on the "shortage"

Hiring boom and a pilot shortage are to different things. My words are no shortage of people, who want to be pilots, or pilots who want to be professional pilots or professional pilots who want to be airline pilots. I always use the additional phrase "qualified and experienced" when I discuss any type of pilot shortage. I go on to say that I do no believe that we will ever see a true shortage like we had in the mid-sixties where the airlines were paying for training - not in my lifetime.

What the editors at aviation magazines choose to pull from our news releases I cannot control. To see what the entire news release says go to http://www.jet-jobs.com/press releases/4.17.02.html . Please note all of the detailed furloughed pilot information that puts the real picture in perspective. There is and never has been anything but a denial of a shortage from AIR, Inc. or me.
From 1993 to 2001 there were over 106,000 new jobs at the 200+ airlines we track - if that is not a
boom then what is? Sure some jobs were lost after deregulation but many more were created too. I guess it is a test of our optimisim as to whether the glass is half-full or half-empty.


My publisher letter from the thick of the hiring boom follows:

Pilot shortage?
What pilot shortage?

Dear AIR, Inc. member and ALPC Readers:

Lately, when I talk to members of the media—national newspapers, magazines, TV, and radio—their
questions almost always include the assumption that there is a pilot shortage. They all seem to be feeding on the shortages at the major airlines due to short-term labor unrest, or on schedule reductions at some of the smaller airlines. I am always offended by their fixation, because without qualifiers, this view is inaccurate and quite honestly, unacceptable.
While it’s true that major airlines like United and Delta have pointed to a lack of pilots as the reason for their recent flight cancellations, when we talk about pilot shortages, we must remember there are 635,000 licensed pilots in the U.S., plus nearly 30,000 military pilots. There is no lack of people who want to be pilots, no lack of pilots who want to be professionals, and no lack of professional pilots who want to be airline pilots. There is, however, a shortage of qualified and experienced pilot applicants that the airlines
are used to seeing—especially at the regional level.

The average qualifications for pilots getting a major airline job confirm that these airlines are not facing an applicant shortage. The average civilian pilot is 34 years old and has 5,300 hours—more than 21 times the FAA minimum of 250 hours to do the job—and military pilots average 37 years old, with over 3,300 hours total. The airlines themselves set the standards for both minimum requirements and competitive qualifications, and if they need to, there is plenty of room to reduce their minimum and/or competitive levels to create an entirely new group of “qualified and experienced” pilots. The worst that might happen would be the need for additional training to replace the difference in qualifications or experience. I am always mindful that the military successfully places pilots in the most sophisticated aircraft for extremely demanding missions after less than 300 hours of flight training—so it can be done.

The majors will hire close to 5,000 pilots this year, representing about eight percent of their 63,000 pilots—busy, but manageable, although many major airlines have been limited in hiring by the number of pilots they can train. National carriers will hire about 6,800 new pilots, or about 35 percent of their current 19,500 pilot workforce—which probably is a little too hectic, but they’re getting the job done. The regional airlines, both jet and non-jet, will hire about 2,650 pilots each (5,300 total), representing a whopping 73 percent of their 7,200 pilots—which is very hard to do and some shortages are being reported.

The “pilot shortage” problem has more to do with qualified and experienced pilots not being in the right place at the right time, than with an overall pilot shortfall. The choice for some airlines may be to over-hire and stockpile pilots, or reduce the flying they do until they have the time to find and train replacement pilots, which easily could take several months. The point is, there is no lack of applicants; there may just be a shortage of qualified and experienced pilots at a particular airline, at least for the moment.

A few airlines, mostly in the regional category, have been unable to fill their classes. After experiencing more than 20 years of pilot surplus, it is easy for them to forget to reach out to applicants. In working with these airlines we often find they are not taking the steps they might to recruit for other career fields, like advertising and attending job fairs to promote opportunities at their airline. Occasionally, application/screening fees or high hiring minimums must be reevaluated to bring in more pilots more quickly. Usually, with some minor adjustments toward traditional recruiting techniques, these airlines are flush with qualified and experienced pilot applicants again.
Remember, most applicants are well above the FAA minimums to do the job, and all the airlines need to do is adjust their hiring standards to get all the “qualified and experienced” pilot applicants they need.
Meanwhile, your job remains to be the best-qualified, most-experienced pilot you can until you get the job at the airline where you expect to retire.

Happy job hunting!

Kit Darby
President & Publisher

 

[bobbysamd]

Pilot shortage

You know something, Kit, what you write here and what you proclaim elsewhere are two different things. You say here there isn't really a pilot shortage. It sure sounds different than the message I've seen from you recently. It is the same message that you peddled in 1987; forty-thousand new pilots will be needed over the next ten years.

Once again, Kit, your misrepresentation appeared in the Be A Pilot.com piece in the Sunday Parade magazine last April. Here's a link to Be A Pilot.com that links to your site:

http://www.beapilot.com/careers.html

You play fast and loose with semantics, Kit, when you qualify your "pilot shortage" claim with the additional phrase "qualified and experienced." Such phrasing is known in the advertising trade as "weasel words." Qualifying, or "weaseling," around a claim or assertion. I read about "weasel words" in a book about advertising called I Can Sell You Anything. It came out thirty years ago.

I would appreciate your point if there was an agreed definition of what constitutes "qualified and experienced." But, maybe it isn't altogether your fault, Kit. The airlines play fast and loose with their requirements as hiring goes up and down. You know how it works. During slow times the requirements go up. During good times the requirements go down. The airlines define who is "qualified and experienced" to suit their needs. E.g., the commuters, who were hiring at 1500 total-500 multi, decide that 1000 total-100 multi fits their definition of "qualified and experienced" because they can't get any 1500-500 pilots and they need "qualified and experienced" pilots. All of sudden, the commuters have "qualified and experienced" pilots coming out of their ears. Therefore, Kit, there is no pilot shortage. (Disclaimer: Absolutely no offense or slight intended to 1000-100 pilots. None at all. Please, please don't take offense. You folks are trying. Everyone is trying. I'm trying to make a point to Kit.)

You work for United. Once again, go talk to Nancy Stuke. Ask her to pull out the sheaves of resumes in her files of qualified and desirable pilot applicants.

Notwithstanding pilots who are trying to advance in their careers, how about the furloughees and pilots who are out of work because of company failures and 911? Rights of recall lasts only so long. Any hope for them, Kit? Read Flying the Line, Volume II again, especially the section about the Eastern shutdown and the pilots who never flew again.

You need a new shtik, Kit.

 

[pilotyip]

Kit does a good job

don't knock his success, he has helped alot of guys get good jobs

 

[publisher]

problem is

The problem here is that every one is right.

Kit has helped people get jobs. Kit defines shortage as he sees fit and we all agree that there really is no definition. For the most part airlines will always have a shortage of what they want and pilots a surplus of competition for the postions available.

Kit claims 70% of every one employed at a major is an Air Inc member. Who knows how he comes to this conclusion. UPAS and AEPS probably have some justification for a big number of those as well seeing there were many dual members.

Kit charges big bucks to come here guys tell what is going on at their companies even if that is absolutely nothing. For a couple of hundred bucks, I would like to know who is coming there to recruit and who to inform.

On another thread, someone was telling what Delta was going to do when they started back recruiting because Plato and Frank had said so. My point there is by 200X, who knows if these guys will be alive, let alone employed and working at Delta recruiting.

There are no saints here and frankly for the next couple of years, it flat out does not matter if a major is your goal .

 

[NYRANGERS]

Re: problem is

The problem here is that every one is right.

On another thread, someone was telling what Delta was going to do when they started back recruiting because Plato and Frank had said so. My point there is by 200X, who knows if these guys will be alive, let alone employed and working at Delta recruiting.

There are no saints here and frankly for the next couple of years, it flat out does not matter if a major is your goal .

It was just an educated guess. Who knows if Delta will be around in 200X, but it is a pretty good guess they will.


Lighten up dude..

 

[NYRANGERS]

Publisher,

I was also trying to give my two cents to the guys and gals who were in the pool or wating for an interview. I still think if Frank says they will be rembering them then I think they will.

Being a Delta pilot myself I would think I would know more about the situation then you..

 

[bobbysamd]

Here, here ....

Well, Pub, we agree again. You are 100% correct that Kit shifts with the wind regarding the pilot "shortage."

I was ruminating during the day about what really defines a pilot shortage, or shortage of qualified workers in any industry. I don't think it's all that difficult to define. A worker shortage exists when jobs go wanting for lack of applicants. Plain and simple. I remember several years ago there was a teacher shortage. Colleges couldn't graduate enough teachers. Then, one year, the teacher shortage ended.

Let's say an airline desperately wants to operate its aircraft but is parking them because it can't find enough pilots to fill their seats, junior manning and reserve notwithstanding. A pilot shortage therefore exists. When Kit portrays "pilot shortage," any reasonable person would take that to mean that a job(s) awaits all those who train for it. The flight schools do a fine job of selling that idea. Finish training, look for work, and pilots learn first hand the definition, or lack thereof, of pilot "shortage."

I don't disagree that Kit has helped people find jobs. After all, Lou Smith started FAPA to provide a resource for military pilots who wanted airline jobs but didn't know where to begin. However, under Kit's stewardship, FAPA grew, due in part and in no small measure to Kit raising "pilot shortage" to an art form.

 

[publisher]

Question

I am not saying that I would be surprised if they were still there but rather that as up in the air as things are, who knows.

While I appreciate the statement NYRANGERS, no offense but the fact is that I would probably have a better chance of knowing than you in this case. The pool may or may not be in existence and my thinking is that it depends somewhat on timing as does everything else.

Let me give you a management kind of thinking here. We have a pilot in the "pool" who we liked who was 50 years old. The delay equals 5 years. We now have 5 years left for the investment in the individual. We have a comparable new applicant, same qualifications, he is 45 when it started and we will get 10 years of service. Which will we hire.

Obviously I have simplified the situation for example. Still this is an example of the thought process. In one year, the applicant pool does not change much, in 5 it can change immensely. I could give a number of other examples of these type of things. If you stand still for the 5 years, how many pass you in the career chain.

 

[enigma]

Mr. Darby. Please clarify one statement.

From 1993 to 2001 there were over 106,000 new jobs at the 200+ airlines we track - if that is not a
boom then what is?

I pasted a quote from your post. I want to know if the number (106,000) represents the number of new jobs, or does it represent the number of new PILOT jobs?

If your number is correct and it refers to new pilot positions, that would mean that ever pilot job in the country was "NEW" since 1993, because there are only somewhere around 100,000 airline pilots employed today.

I think that this is just another example of your spin. I don't think that there have been 106,000 NEW airline pilot jobs created since 1993.

I don't think so; but I don't mind being wrong if you care to prove me wrong.

Yeah, I know that this is an aviation board, not just a pilot board, but please don't come up with some semantic argument about emplyoment services being aimed at the entire industry, not just pilots. We all know that the main focus of your industry is pilot wannabees, and your reply came in a string about "pilot shortages"

regards
enigma

 

[House_X]

Before 9/11 there was a definate pilot shortage...everyone at the flight school I used to teach at were getting interviews close to mins. I interviewed pre 9/11 and waited 6 months in a pool and got a class date...I was lucky...

Kit is in this thing for the money...he makes money off of OUR DREAMS of becoming airline pilots. When there's a pilot shortage, he'll say there isn't one...just to keep the fear factor going so that you'll pay $$$$. I used to like Flying Careers magazine better than the Air Inc mag. They were more honest and critical with evaluating the corporate culture of each airline.

What's critical to our profession will be the Mechanics shortage.
With less military pilots and the fact younger generations don't want to fly beat-up 30 year old training aircraft; as soon as the economy improves, we'll see a shortage in pilots, mechanics and F/A's.

 

[Caveman]

Even if Kit Darby's numbers are correct regarding 106K new pilot jobs he forgets to mention that in the period covered 1 pilot may have had 4 or 5 of those jobs. 135 freight, 135 charter, 121 commuter, 121 regional, and, finally, 121 major. 106K pilots may have been hired but most were hired more than once.

 

[Ned]

bobbysamd

I agree 100% with bobbysamd

An example of a shortage in labor would be for nurses. Go look in the paper, there are 100s of open nursing jobs. They are not being filled and the pay is slowly going up as a result (in florida anyway)

Now go and find a pilot position advertised. Its not there.

The problem is you guys are begging for the jobs Somebody takes the FO job fot 20K a year. Somebody will fly your twin for FREE if you put an add in the paper. The supply of pilots far exceeds the demand. There is a glut of pilots.

Now the real question... Why do you care if anybody makes money off a pilot service? If you don't like it don't buy. If you don't think its right to PFT or fly for free then don't. Find a new career if its so bad. Or just keep whining on internet message board, I guess either way will work.

The only thing that makes me madd is I haven't figured a way to scam the masses so I don't have to work anymore. I suppose I'm just jealous!

 

[FlyinBrian]

Before 9/11 there was a definate pilot shortage...everyone at the flight school I used to teach at were getting interviews close to mins

People have always been getting hired close to mins. But mins change all of the time, and so you can't use the fact that people are getting hired close to mins to prove a shortage.

I'll put this in economic terms for everyone. Pilot jobs are subject to the laws of supply and demand like anything else. For there to be a shortage, the Quatity of pilots demanded from the market must exceed the quantity of pilots supplied by the market.

That has never ever happened.

If it ever looks like it might, the airlines just lower their mins, thereby shifting the enitire supply curve to the right and re-establishting market equilibrium. For there to be a true shortage, airlines would have to lower their mins to a Commercial pilot certificate (190 hrs absolute minimum) They can't go lower because of federal regulation. So if at this level there STILL weren't enough pilots to fill the jobs, you may be able to declare a shortage, and airlines would have to start paying for pilots to get their ratings.

Don't hold your breath

 

[FlyinBrian]

On a lighter note..

Don't let that discourage you from becoming a pilot. There doesn't have to be a shortage in any industry for there to be available jobs. In fact, there are very few industries where there is a shortage of labor, for the same reasons that there is not a shortage of pilots. Companies can typically find people to fill jobs by changing the dynamics of supply and demand. They can either lower the qualifications (supply curve shift) raise the pay (increase the quantity supplied)

I guess my point is that the lack of a shortage does not necessarily mean it's difficult to get hired. As was previously stated, there only has to be one job available as long as you get it.