Pilot Shortage

[NYRANGERS]

Re: problem is

The problem here is that every one is right.

On another thread, someone was telling what Delta was going to do when they started back recruiting because Plato and Frank had said so. My point there is by 200X, who knows if these guys will be alive, let alone employed and working at Delta recruiting.

There are no saints here and frankly for the next couple of years, it flat out does not matter if a major is your goal .

It was just an educated guess. Who knows if Delta will be around in 200X, but it is a pretty good guess they will.


Lighten up dude..

 

[NYRANGERS]

Publisher,

I was also trying to give my two cents to the guys and gals who were in the pool or wating for an interview. I still think if Frank says they will be rembering them then I think they will.

Being a Delta pilot myself I would think I would know more about the situation then you..

 

[bobbysamd]

Here, here ....

Well, Pub, we agree again. You are 100% correct that Kit shifts with the wind regarding the pilot "shortage."

I was ruminating during the day about what really defines a pilot shortage, or shortage of qualified workers in any industry. I don't think it's all that difficult to define. A worker shortage exists when jobs go wanting for lack of applicants. Plain and simple. I remember several years ago there was a teacher shortage. Colleges couldn't graduate enough teachers. Then, one year, the teacher shortage ended.

Let's say an airline desperately wants to operate its aircraft but is parking them because it can't find enough pilots to fill their seats, junior manning and reserve notwithstanding. A pilot shortage therefore exists. When Kit portrays "pilot shortage," any reasonable person would take that to mean that a job(s) awaits all those who train for it. The flight schools do a fine job of selling that idea. Finish training, look for work, and pilots learn first hand the definition, or lack thereof, of pilot "shortage."

I don't disagree that Kit has helped people find jobs. After all, Lou Smith started FAPA to provide a resource for military pilots who wanted airline jobs but didn't know where to begin. However, under Kit's stewardship, FAPA grew, due in part and in no small measure to Kit raising "pilot shortage" to an art form.

 

[publisher]

Question

I am not saying that I would be surprised if they were still there but rather that as up in the air as things are, who knows.

While I appreciate the statement NYRANGERS, no offense but the fact is that I would probably have a better chance of knowing than you in this case. The pool may or may not be in existence and my thinking is that it depends somewhat on timing as does everything else.

Let me give you a management kind of thinking here. We have a pilot in the "pool" who we liked who was 50 years old. The delay equals 5 years. We now have 5 years left for the investment in the individual. We have a comparable new applicant, same qualifications, he is 45 when it started and we will get 10 years of service. Which will we hire.

Obviously I have simplified the situation for example. Still this is an example of the thought process. In one year, the applicant pool does not change much, in 5 it can change immensely. I could give a number of other examples of these type of things. If you stand still for the 5 years, how many pass you in the career chain.

 

[enigma]

Mr. Darby. Please clarify one statement.

From 1993 to 2001 there were over 106,000 new jobs at the 200+ airlines we track - if that is not a
boom then what is?

I pasted a quote from your post. I want to know if the number (106,000) represents the number of new jobs, or does it represent the number of new PILOT jobs?

If your number is correct and it refers to new pilot positions, that would mean that ever pilot job in the country was "NEW" since 1993, because there are only somewhere around 100,000 airline pilots employed today.

I think that this is just another example of your spin. I don't think that there have been 106,000 NEW airline pilot jobs created since 1993.

I don't think so; but I don't mind being wrong if you care to prove me wrong.

Yeah, I know that this is an aviation board, not just a pilot board, but please don't come up with some semantic argument about emplyoment services being aimed at the entire industry, not just pilots. We all know that the main focus of your industry is pilot wannabees, and your reply came in a string about "pilot shortages"

regards
enigma

 

[House_X]

Before 9/11 there was a definate pilot shortage...everyone at the flight school I used to teach at were getting interviews close to mins. I interviewed pre 9/11 and waited 6 months in a pool and got a class date...I was lucky...

Kit is in this thing for the money...he makes money off of OUR DREAMS of becoming airline pilots. When there's a pilot shortage, he'll say there isn't one...just to keep the fear factor going so that you'll pay $$$$. I used to like Flying Careers magazine better than the Air Inc mag. They were more honest and critical with evaluating the corporate culture of each airline.

What's critical to our profession will be the Mechanics shortage.
With less military pilots and the fact younger generations don't want to fly beat-up 30 year old training aircraft; as soon as the economy improves, we'll see a shortage in pilots, mechanics and F/A's.

 

[Caveman]

Even if Kit Darby's numbers are correct regarding 106K new pilot jobs he forgets to mention that in the period covered 1 pilot may have had 4 or 5 of those jobs. 135 freight, 135 charter, 121 commuter, 121 regional, and, finally, 121 major. 106K pilots may have been hired but most were hired more than once.

 

[Ned]

bobbysamd

I agree 100% with bobbysamd

An example of a shortage in labor would be for nurses. Go look in the paper, there are 100s of open nursing jobs. They are not being filled and the pay is slowly going up as a result (in florida anyway)

Now go and find a pilot position advertised. Its not there.

The problem is you guys are begging for the jobs Somebody takes the FO job fot 20K a year. Somebody will fly your twin for FREE if you put an add in the paper. The supply of pilots far exceeds the demand. There is a glut of pilots.

Now the real question... Why do you care if anybody makes money off a pilot service? If you don't like it don't buy. If you don't think its right to PFT or fly for free then don't. Find a new career if its so bad. Or just keep whining on internet message board, I guess either way will work.

The only thing that makes me madd is I haven't figured a way to scam the masses so I don't have to work anymore. I suppose I'm just jealous!

 

[FlyinBrian]

Before 9/11 there was a definate pilot shortage...everyone at the flight school I used to teach at were getting interviews close to mins

People have always been getting hired close to mins. But mins change all of the time, and so you can't use the fact that people are getting hired close to mins to prove a shortage.

I'll put this in economic terms for everyone. Pilot jobs are subject to the laws of supply and demand like anything else. For there to be a shortage, the Quatity of pilots demanded from the market must exceed the quantity of pilots supplied by the market.

That has never ever happened.

If it ever looks like it might, the airlines just lower their mins, thereby shifting the enitire supply curve to the right and re-establishting market equilibrium. For there to be a true shortage, airlines would have to lower their mins to a Commercial pilot certificate (190 hrs absolute minimum) They can't go lower because of federal regulation. So if at this level there STILL weren't enough pilots to fill the jobs, you may be able to declare a shortage, and airlines would have to start paying for pilots to get their ratings.

Don't hold your breath

 

[FlyinBrian]

On a lighter note..

Don't let that discourage you from becoming a pilot. There doesn't have to be a shortage in any industry for there to be available jobs. In fact, there are very few industries where there is a shortage of labor, for the same reasons that there is not a shortage of pilots. Companies can typically find people to fill jobs by changing the dynamics of supply and demand. They can either lower the qualifications (supply curve shift) raise the pay (increase the quantity supplied)

I guess my point is that the lack of a shortage does not necessarily mean it's difficult to get hired. As was previously stated, there only has to be one job available as long as you get it.