Pilot Shortage

[Unchilled]

Is there ever going to be a pilot shortage?

I hear about the impending pilot shortage and how airlines are beginning to hire again. Then I come here and see a bunch of pilots on furlough. That irritates me. Where does this BS come from? Is there any truth to it? I hear this stuff on the radio all the time. I have a long way to go before I become employable, but this stuff is still important to me. What do you think?

Thanks.
Unchilled

 

[surplus1]

Is there ever going to be a pilot shortage?

I hear about the impending pilot shortage and how airlines are beginning to hire again. Then I come here and see a bunch of pilots on furlough. That irritates me. Where does this BS come from? Is there any truth to it? I hear this stuff on the radio all the time. I have a long way to go before I become employable, but this stuff is still important to me. What do you think?

Thanks.
Unchilled

IMHO, there is no pilot shortage, there has never been a pilot shortage and it is highly improbable that there ever will be a pilot shortage.

There are times when more pilots are hired and times when fewer pilots are hired. It runs in cycles and that has always been the case. The supply of pilots has always been greater than the demand for pilots.

Where does the BS come? Advertising hype.

 

[avbug]

Pilot Shortage?

Ha! Ha! Haaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaa!

Seriously, we'v been hearing about this for years. Haven't seen it yet. No such thing. No shortage of pilots.

Monkeys...now there's a shortage. When was the last time you saw one on a scheduled flight?

 

[Unchilled]

Pilot Shortage?

Ha! Ha! Haaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaa!

Seriously, we'v been hearing about this for years. Haven't seen it yet. No such thing. No shortage of pilots.

Monkeys...now there's a shortage. When was the last time you saw one on a scheduled flight?

I know it sounds like a stupid question, and I don't blame you for laughing. Can't blame me for hoping. It sucks this kind of BS is out there though. Unfortunately, flying for a living is all I ever wanted to do, so I'm gonna stick it out either way.

 

[surplus1]

I know it sounds like a stupid question, and I don't blame you for laughing. Can't blame me for hoping. It sucks this kind of BS is out there though. Unfortunately, flying for a living is all I ever wanted to do, so I'm gonna stick it out either way.

It's NOT a stupid question. There is no such thing as a stupid question in aviation.

If flying for a living is what you want to do, then do it! Stick to your guns and you'll make it, shortage or not.

I don't think it's possible to have a better career than that of a professional pilot! Remember though, I'm prejudiced.

Best wishes to you for the future.

 

[Huck]

There doesn't have to be thousands of jobs out there - just one. Just make sure you get it.

 

[bobbysamd]

Pilot "shortage"

No, sir, there is no pilot shortage. That has to be one of the biggest old wive's tales ever. There has never been a pilot shortage. Don't laugh - there was no pilot shortage when the Wright Flyer first flew nearly 100 years ago. There were two Wright Brothers and one "opening" to fly that airplane. Moreover, neither of them P-F-T'd. Both Orville and Wilbur had extensive experience building and flying gliders before they built and flew the Wright Flyer.

Historians have noted that even years ago there was no pilot shortage. George Hopkins notes in Flying the Line that E.L. Cord, who was an early-day Frank Lorenzo, had no trouble finding pilots to fly for his airline, and for less money than the trunks of the day were paying.

Frankly, I think that it was Kit Darby who spun up the myth of pilot shortage to promote his agenda of driving business to his customers. In 1987, news reports proclaimed a pilot shortage. Forty-thousand pilots would be needed over the next ten years. The source of theose statistics: Kit Darby, as FAPA impressario. A few weeks ago, Parade Magazine in your Sunday paper ran a box from an outfit called Be A Pilot. Be A Pilot said forty-thousand pilots would be needed over the next ten years? Its "source?" Yeppers, Kit Darby, this time as AIR, Inc.! That statement was especially noxious because of all the furloughs. Tell the furloughees there is a pilot shortage!

Don't ever believe that there is a pilot shortage. Some of us found that out the hard way. Just the same, there is no reason not to try for the career, if you're motivated. You'll work plenty hard and sacrifice a lot, but, as was said above, all it takes is one job.

 

[Bluto]

Semantics?

First, I think there is not, has never been, and will never be a shortage of pilots for the available jobs. The reason for this is quite simple: The level of experience required for these jobs is extremely variable. So, depending on your definition of "shortage", I can see how some people feel this is true. I do feel that the level of overstaffing will decrease in the coming years, since the rate of retirements will increase. Keep in mind also, that retirements are only one very small factor in determining the available jobs.

 

[Timebuilder]

Unchilled, you can chill out on this one.

I was asking myself about this several years ago. At first, I figured these claims of a "pilot shortage" must be true if I was seeing these ads in "reputable" aviation magazines. I had this idea in my head that the people I didn't know in aviation (magazine publishers, etc) were somehow like the people I did know in aviation: trustworthy beyond reproach.

Wrong-O.

No shortage of pilots, only a shortage of flight students, aeps and upas "members", AIR Inc subscribers, etc.

As always, there is a shortage of good people. We always need more of them.

 

[RichardFitzwell]

Don't laugh - there was no pilot shortage when the Wright Flyer first flew nearly 100 years ago. There were two Wright Brothers and one "opening" to fly that airplane.

Good one Bobby.

 

[flyingtoilet]

Bluto is right on track. There will never be a "shortage" per se. Just that the flight time requirements will vary greatly. In a few years, we'll probably see hiring minimums back where they were before 9/11. But as long as there are student pilots out there, a shortage won't happen. Hiring mins. at a major might be 250TT with a Commercial-Multi, but there will never be a situation where there is more of a need for crews than certificated pilots available.

 

[publisher]

point made

While we have had this discussion once before, the point was just made again that it is a matter of experience level that changes, not supply.

That therefore is how it should be stated.....

there is a shortage of 5000 tt 1000 pic mulit turbine --as example.

two years ago, I don't think that anyone would argue that the experience level to get into an airline had dropped considerably from earlier years. these things are relative.

lastly, these statements are both relative and take in a much wider scope than stated. In short, they are worldwide and they are all pilot jobs, not just a few American carriers.

besides this, who amongst us predicted a terrorist attack in our projections.

 

[TurboS7]

We just put 70 pilots on the street. Half of the pilot's are 737NG pilots with type ratings and about 1000 hours PIC in the jet. They are all excellent pilot's and very highly motivated to excel in what they do. I hope they do well and get very highly paid 737BBJ jobs, they all deserve it.

 

[Beer&Brauts]

Unchilled,

I wouldn't let the fact the "pilot shortage" is a myth deter you from your career goals. I started flying in the early 90's - the last time hiring was practically nill and lots of people were on the streets. It took some time for me to make it to a regional, but now that I'm here, I'm happy I stuck it out.

If flying is what you really want to do with your life than go for it - it's just a matter of time before you're doing it for a living. If you're one of those foolishly lured by Kit Darby's and the flight schools propaganda of flying for a major airlines making the big bucks in a matter of no time - forget it.

 

[enigma]

I think that the jury has returned, and the verdict is: NO shortage.

With that said, flying is a good career if you enter in with realistic expectations. It is a career that you will have little if any control over. Your career success will be based somewhat upon your timing and decisions that you made without adequate information, and largely by the decisions made by the population of pilots at large. Speaking about information to make decisions, unless you have crystal ball, there is no way to get that information. There are plenty of pilots who were hired by Pan Am, EAL, etc, who made what seemed like a great decision that later turned out to lead to a dead end.

As for where the misleading information comes from, certain companies exist that make a living by providing help in acquiring an airline job. Other companies make a living by training pilots. In an attempt to enlarge their business, they use "inovative" marketing techniques to gain customers.

It also comes word of mouth from uniformed prospective pilots who desperately want to believe that they are only weeks away from the left seat of a 747.

Good Luck, and Please don't drag us all down by ever paying for a job.

8N

 

[Pilotadjuster]

Consider the source

Always consider the source of information; if they are trying to sell you a $50k flight training program, then....

No pilot shortage anyone here has seen, at any experience level, but heres to hoping!

 

[bobbysamd]

More "pilot unshortage"

Absolutely. We should all hope that the economy will improve reapidly, all of the furloughees will be recalled, and the airlines will need pilots. Don't equate "need" with "pilot shortage." There's a major difference.

However, Pub, don't forget that although companies may say they need someone with 5000 total-1000 multi PIC turbine, all they have to do, and will do, is lower the mins and voila, qualifiied, trainable applicants coming out of their ears. And, therein lies the rub.

Just as E.L. Cord discovered, there are plenty of pilots available to fly airplanes. Companies are never desperate for pilots. Pilots, though, are somtimes desperate for jobs.

 

[reaperman]

The term "Pilot" may be a bit too generic to apply a concept like shortage to. There are pilots and then there are pilots.

I've been reading about and watching Airnet since before I could get my medical cert. (Finally started training last month), and Craig Washka definitely described a pilot shortage (before September). The shortage was of pilots who could fill out the applications correctly and completely, pass their sim rides, and successfully complete Airnet's training course. Just as a side note, being able to spell 'definitey' does not seem to be a requirement for any pilot job, and may even be a disqualifier

There seem to be a lot of Airnet pilots on this board and, from everything I've read and heard about the type of flying involved, you are all to be congratulated on being among the best civilian pilots out there.

I used to be an electronics engineer, another profession which has suffered a "shortage" since I can remember. There were always plenty of engineering school graduates to fill the jobs, but there were not many of them who could really do the job well. I suspect the same may be true of pilots.

 

[publisher]

point

that was the point Bobby,

There can be a shortage of high time 737 type rated pilots but n overall shortage.

There can be a shortage to the extent one has to drop their minimums.

There can be an abundance in the US and not worldwide.

What there will never be is a shortage of people with licenses.

 

[ShawnC]

There is a pilot shortage, theres a shortage of available female pilots. To date I have only met one that is single, I mean come on normal girls just never understand that much I(and most pilots) love flying. I use to work eight hours on the line, just to get a free tow right before it close up for the day. And that was ontop of my normal job that I held during the week.

 

[bobbysamd]

counterpoint

True, Pub, there are plenty of folks with pilot certificates. I'm just one.

Now, if the airline in question held fast to its 5000 hour requirement and found no takers, then, yes, it is facing a shortage. Drop the requirement to 4000 hours and poof! the shortage vanishes. Ergo, there is no pilot shortage. Now, if it can't find anyone after dropping the requirments several times, then there is a need and people should sign up with one of Kit's 737 type providers and get typed. That fills a need. However, if Kit trumpets a need for 737 pilots when there is no such need, that is a snowjob.

 

[skydiverdriver]

I have never heard anyone talk about a pilot shortage. Now, I have heard them talk about a shortage of qualified pilots, but that is completely different. I think this may happen, and was beginning to happen before Sept 11th. Of course, that changed everything, and nobody could have predicted it. We are in a recession, and the attacks made it worse. Of course you can't rely on information that was given before the terrorist act. I think we will have a shortage of QUALIFIED pilots, but not for a couple years after it was originally going to happen. Good luck, and don't give up.

 

[kilomike]

pilot shortage--Never!!

There never was, and never will be a pilot shortage. Bobbysamd put it best.

I would definitely not object to more people learning to fly for pleasure or personal business, however.

The "pilot shortage" is manufactured by Kit Darby, and money-hungry flight schools feeding off of people's hopes and dreams. I think it's sad that so many people get taken advantage of in this manner.

 

[350DRIVER]

I think most if not all flight schools or I should say your "bigger" more notable schools are very guilty of selling the "Pilot Shortage" propaganda- They would not be as successful as they are today without some false advertising and "selling" of this idea to the young and nieve that "only" want to be "airline pilots" and thats all they want....- If it were only this easy....... But if you put things into perspective and look at this whole process that the flight schools are selling "new" airline pilot wannabes-they don't know any better and they truly believe in the flight school and have no doubts in their mind that there is a "pilot shortage"- very good marketing techinques BUT sad because this is not the case at all and by the time the would be "airline pilot" realizes this they have already sunk a large amount of money into these "programs" and for the most part their hands are tied with very few options or "ways out" to turn to...... A few prime examples are Tab Express and Kit's little money maker- BUT they market their concepts and ideas so well that the young next generation of pilots "believe" in them without knowing any better-

I don't think their will ever be a "pilot shortage" but as long as your Tab Express and Kit's of the industry are alive and well they will continue to brainwash and "sell" the ideas to the "young" next generation of pilots who only know or "want" to believe in these misconceptions... Supply will always outnumber demand in this industry.

cheers
350

 

[publisher]

good

I think that one has to realize though that these schools like TAB would fail if they did not have success.

You need to know that TAB just placed some of their students in the last 30 days and so the people that they placed achieved what they wanted to.

Now that is not because of a shortage as discussed.


While Bobby and I debate whether people really come to the desire for this profession because Kit or TAB or anyone else says there is a shortage, most pilots have the self confidence to believe that they can compete with anyone for the job. As long as there are some good positions out there to aspire to, there will be people to compete for them.

 

[bobbysamd]

Desire

I think the great majority of people aspire to the profession because they love airplanes and aviation. That was my sole motivation to learn how to fly. When Kit declared there is/was a pilot shortage, that was the icing on the cake. I thought, well, gee, is this something with which moi can make a career? I found that prospect to be more than exciting; it was a dream come true.

I believe that quite a few other people want the career because of the potential to make money and enjoy a great lifestyle. Others do it because they are military pilots and flying airplanes is all they know. That does not mean they don't love aviation any less. Then, you have the son or daughter of an airline captain, whose father and maybe grandfather was an airline captain. The young person starts training because it was pre-ordained. I remember running in to one or two Riddlers who said they were flying because they had nothing else to do. These students frustrated me. Look up the Law of Readiness in the FOI.

I remember when I started my first full-time flying job that it didn't seem like work. Do it because you love it.

 

[pilotyip]

Shortage of experience

There may have never been a pilot shortage, but there certainly was a shortage of pilots with the potential to rapidly upgrade. In 2000 we were upgrading pilots to DA-20 Captain after three months on line as an F/O, who three years earlier would not have meet our DA-20 F/O hiring minimums. The regionals were hiring 500 hr pilots with under 100 MEL, true there were always people looking for pilots jobs, but we got real deep in the experience barrel. Air Inc provides an excellent forum, about 1/3 of our pilots come from the Air Inc. system because we get to see the guys and talk to them before we bring them in for the interview. I wish they would have had something like this in the 1980's when I was "between jobs". Pilots who avoid using thier services are missing some great opportunities to sell themselves and find out what is going on in the market. Kit Darby does a great job.

 

[pilotyip]

Experience Shortage

There may have never been a pilot shortage, but there certainly was a shortage of pilots with the potential to rapidly upgrade. In 2000 we were upgrading pilots to DA-20 Captain after three months on line as an F/O, who three years earlier would not have meet our DA-20 F/O hiring minimums. The regionals were hiring 500 hr pilots with under 100 MEL, true there were always people looking for pilots jobs, but we got real deep in the experience barrel. Air Inc provides an excellent forum, about 1/3 of our pilots come from the Air Inc. system because we get to see the guys and talk to them before we bring them in for the interview. I wish they would have had something like this in the 1980's when I was "between jobs". Pilots who avoid using thier services are missing some great opportunities to sell themselves and find out what is going on in the market. Kit Darby does a great job. It is $200 well spent for the latest from the mouth intelligence out there. We will be there in July and hiring.

 

[Snakum]

PilotYip ... what were the mins in 2000 for Captain? For FO? You're with Ameristar, or was it Reliant? Just curious.


I take it the closest we've ever been to a 'shortage' was in the early 60s.

I spoke with an older retired UA guy at a local FBO once who told me he was picked up by United in 1963 (if I remember correctly) with a fresh Commercial ME and no high school diploma and sent to FE training on a 707. Boy ... talk about a firehose!


Minh
Sometimes SE Piston Corporate Geek

 

[Timebuilder]

I know one of those guys. You'd be amazed how many were hired that way. I was about twelve years too young for that little hiring frenzy.