Pilot Shortage

[fam62c]

Here's the simple answer.

There is not and there will never be a pilot shortage for good jobs in the USA. For every good job that offers good pay and good QOL there are 100 or more bad jobs. That means that there are 100 or more applicants for every good job. UPS, FedEX, SWA, NetJets and other high quality airline and corporate operators will always have a huge surplus of applicants. Don't believe me? Try being out of work with qualifications far in excess of what most places are hiring and see how many employers you hear back from when you start applying for jobs. If you are lucky you will get an automated E-mail message back after you apply. At most places you won't even get that much.

The USA could stop training new pilots entirely for 5 years or more and the good employers would never even notice the difference. Maybe if you are MESA airlines and you are looking for FO's to work for 20K/year you may think that there's a shortage. It's a great time for young pilots with no experience to get started in entry level positions with low pay and undesirable QOL but the good employers are still flooded with applicants. The number of entry level jobs at the bottom of the industry has increased dramatically but the number of good jobs at the top never increases. I just looked at the XOJet posts and could not believe the number of applicants they have for a small number of jobs. Keep in mind that these are jobs where you are away from home a minimum of 8 days in a row.

There's no shortage of pilots, there's only a shortage of good flying jobs.

 

[Flybet3]

There is not and there will never be a pilot shortage for good jobs in the USA. For every good job that offers good pay and good QOL there are 100 or more bad jobs. That means that there are 100 or more applicants for every good job. UPS, FedEX, SWA, NetJets and other high quality airline and corporate operators will always have a huge surplus of applicants. Don't believe me? Try being out of work with qualifications far in excess of what most places are hiring and see how many employers you hear back from when you start applying for jobs. If you are lucky you will get an automated E-mail message back after you apply. At most places you won't even get that much.

The USA could stop training new pilots entirely for 5 years or more and the good employers would never even notice the difference. Maybe if you are MESA airlines and you are looking for FO's to work for 20K/year you may think that there's a shortage. It's a great time for young pilots with no experience to get started in entry level positions with low pay and undesirable QOL but the good employers are still flooded with applicants. The number of entry level jobs at the bottom of the industry has increased dramatically but the number of good jobs at the top never increases. I just looked at the XOJet posts and could not believe the number of applicants they have for a small number of jobs. Keep in mind that these are jobs where you are away from home a minimum of 8 days in a row.

There's no shortage of pilots, there's only a shortage of good flying jobs.

Good point. Very good post.

 

[captain dad]

Maybe if you are MESA airlines and you are looking for FO's to work for 20K/year you may think that there's a shortage.

That is where you will see the shortage; at the bottom of the industry. There aren't enough qualified pilots as it is now. When regionals go soliciting at flight schools, FBOs and even airline terminals (one was even passing out flyers) there is a pilot shortage.

Ask the pilots and FAs on your next regional ride.

 

[skyward80]

If the demand is truly that high, they should pay more and provide a better QOL. Thanks to mergers, slow economy, and age 65, pilots are going to be spending a lot more time on the bottom of this industry. If you don't sweeten that deal at least a little bit, you're not going to get any pilots.

Any "shortage" is self-induced. Take me for example, I have no civilian job. If my orders are cut off tomorrow, I'm basically unemployed. With my qualifications, I could easily work at a regional. However, you will never see my name on one of their applications. And, no, it's NOT because I think I'm too good or whatever. It's because I can't afford to work their. I've got loans to pay, a retirement account to fund, etc. I can't afford to live off of chicken feed and food stamps.

Here's a whole other can of worms for everybody... If ALPA were worth a s***, they would be working hard to raise standards at regionals. However, ALPA is a heavy captain union. If you're not a heavy-flying captain, you don't matter. Ask any regional/national pilot. My roommate from college doesn't have a whole lot of great things to say about them nor do the dozen or so other regional/national pilots I know in that segment of the industry. Plus, about 10 minutes of research will show you that ALPA disregards its members.

Skyward80

 

[pilotyip]

Direct entry 100K job?

However, you will never see my name on one of their applications. And, no, it's NOT because I think I'm too good or whatever. It's because I can't afford to work their. I've got loans to pay, a retirement account to fund, etc. I can't afford to live off of chicken feed and food stamps.

Skyward80

100K is a very achievable wage in the aviation industry after 10 years, what is wrong with than? It is a good income; I have never seen it and am doing just fine. Nowhere did I say you should not try t0 make more. BTW What is middle class income? is it 46K, 50 percentile, is it 75K, 70 percentile, is in 90K, 80 percentile, is it 110K 90 percentile. Most pilots make a good living compared to the rest of the individuals in this country, and most are doing something they like. You have to pay your dues someplace to start out in this business

 

[Coool Hand Luke]

100K is a very achievable wage in the aviation industry after 10 years, what is wrong with than? It is a good income; I have never seen it and am doing just fine. Nowhere did I say you should not try t0 make more. BTW What is middle class income? is it 46K, 50 percentile, is it 75K, 70 percentile, is in 90K, 80 percentile, is it 110K 90 percentile. Most pilots make a good living compared to the rest of the individuals in this country, and most are doing something they like. You have to pay your dues someplace to start out in this business

Hold on there high speed. Most of the rest of the individuals in this country also do not regulary have other peoples lives depeneding on how well they do thier job. They mess up, no big deal. We mess up, people can get hurt. There is a big difference, don't you think?

And before you bring up doctors, let's just see how much they make for this same responsibility...and the last I checked, I haven't seen or heard about any "surgery simulators" where "surgery simulator Doctor Insructors" give the students simulated equipement failures while they are doing simulated open heart sugery. Oh yea, an your nurse just became incapacitated.

 

[Flyby1206]

100K is a very achievable wage in the aviation industry after 10 years, what is wrong with than? It is a good income; I have never seen it and am doing just fine. Nowhere did I say you should not try t0 make more. BTW What is middle class income? is it 46K, 50 percentile, is it 75K, 70 percentile, is in 90K, 80 percentile, is it 110K 90 percentile. Most pilots make a good living compared to the rest of the individuals in this country, and most are doing something they like. You have to pay your dues someplace to start out in this business

How much does the average pilot spend on college education, flight training, expenses along the way before they get hired at a regional carrier? I would say 100k would be average total cost. How much did the guy working the middle-class job at a factory spend in training? Probably no college, no specialized training, they didnt spend years of apprenticeship making low wages in hopes of getting hired at a big factory someday. As long as this industry has the "I paid my dues, you have to do the same. We will eat our young to get what the top 5% of the company wants" we wont make progress. I ask you this: When are my dues considered "paid." How many years of night freight in a baron, flight instructing, right seat in an RJ, left seat in an RJ, Reserve on the DC-9 out of DTW does it take before I am on the same level as someone who has paid their dues? If I get furloughed and have to go back to flying an RJ or baron, of CFI does that mean my dues have been taken back? The industry is as strong as its weakest payscale.

 

[blzr]

And before you bring up doctors, let's just see how much they make for this same responsibility...and the last I checked, I haven't seen or heard about any "surgery simulators" where "surgery simulator Doctor Insructors" give the students simulated equipement failures while they are doing simulated open heart sugery. Oh yea, an your nurse just became incapacitated.
__________________

If 'ole Doc Sawbones screws the pooch, only one person dies, if the pilot does, the whole E/R dies.

 

[blzr]

100K is a very achievable wage in the aviation industry after 10 years, what is wrong with than? It is a good income; I have never seen it and am doing just fine. Nowhere did I say you should not try t0 make more. BTW What is middle class income? is it 46K, 50 percentile, is it 75K, 70 percentile, is in 90K, 80 percentile, is it 110K 90 percentile. Most pilots make a good living compared to the rest of the individuals in this country, and most are doing something they like. You have to pay your dues someplace to start out in this business

There is a big difference between "being happy with what you make", and "being content"with what you make.

We have a much larger responsibility to the customer than ANYONE else in the company, all the while being treated like second class citizens by management.

 

[G100driver]

Look, guys flying for the commuters probably get what the deserve .... it is not like they need a college education fly a shinny little jet.

 

[gunfyter]

100K is a very achievable wage in the aviation industry after 10 years, what is wrong with than? It is a good income; I have never seen it and am doing just fine. Nowhere did I say you should not try t0 make more. BTW What is middle class income? is it 46K, 50 percentile, is it 75K, 70 percentile, is in 90K, 80 percentile, is it 110K 90 percentile. Most pilots make a good living compared to the rest of the individuals in this country, and most are doing something they like. You have to pay your dues someplace to start out in this business

Pilots need to be Rich, not middle class. $200K is the new $100K Salaries on par with Medical doctors.

Do you really think RJ captains should earn less than $100K? I do not.

The reason people fly for low wages is that the experience and staying current is worth MORE than the pay ... in securing a better position that pays pilots correctly. Employers take advantage of this reality and offer criminally low wages to pilots in certain sectors of this industry.

 

[Coool Hand Luke]

Look, guys flying for the commuters probably get what the deserve .... it is not like they need a college education fly a shinny little jet.

I don't fly for the commuters, but what differenct does that make anyway? Let me go ahead and answer my retorical question: none

But that's just my opinion G100driver. Just like in my opinion an Astra is not really a Gulfstream. But hey, I suppose you probably get away will fooling all the ladies by telling them you are a "Gulfstream Driver". How impressive.

 

[G100driver]

I don't fly for the commuters, but what differenct does that make anyway? Let me go ahead and answer my retorical question: none

But that's just my opinion G100driver. Just like in my opinion an Astra is not really a Gulfstream. But hey, I suppose you probably get away will fooling all the ladies by telling them you are a "Gulfstream Driver". How impressive.

I guess irony did not filter down to the commu ...opps, mainline feeder pilots ... (sacasm again, do not fly off the handle)

ps I have not flown a G100 years but I cannot change my screen name to fit every type I have ... and yes the ladies are are very impressed :laugh:

 

[skyward80]

$100k in 10 years might be nice. However, if people are going broke and living off of food stamps the previous 9 years, you'll need a lot more than $100k to make up for that.

I agree with the whole "pay your dues" thing. I'm in the military, we wrote the book on that stuff. Two things I have noticed about military pay:
1) I'm not getting rich (not in it for that either).
2) The money the gov't does me is enough to cover all of my needs and a lot of my wants. I am never looking to promotion as a means of "catching up" on debt I racked up due to low pay.

Look at the pay scales out there. First year pay sucks (gotta pay those dues), but most places don't have great second year pay either. So, if you're going into debt in year 1, when do you "catch up". Never. It's nearly impossible to live off $35k-$40k a year (that's before taxes). People have to pay rent/mortgage, student loans (I'll be paying those dues for a LONG time), car loans, retirement, etc.

So, $100k in 10 years doesn't sound so bad, but what's it going to take to get there? I argue that the reason any "shortage" might be induced in this industry (or at least in US aviation) is because many people look at those 9 years and say f*** it, I'll do something else.

Skyward80

 

[Publishers]

Fam62 makes good points. The aspect that many fail to grasp is that many of what you consider the lower tier of jobs would not all be there if pilot pay was doubled or if the cost of fuel doubles. There is a certain reality between the cost variables. As example, there is a cost where it is no longer reasonable to fly cancelled checks. There would be routes no longer feasible from certain cities. It would be more economical to drive than fly some trips. The companies aircraft that is marginal would become not feasible. The regional jet seat cost would be too great for XYZ companies sales staff and trips would become delayed or cancelled. There would be less whine from all the pilots because there would be less pilots.
In any occupation, there are companies that are the best to work for that have the best wages and the best QOL. The goal of course is to work for one of these and it is highly competitive. Many of those who work there started somewhere else with an opportunity someone gave them where they worked to become attractive to the best companies. What you need to ask yourself is would I be chosen or passed up? What if the people that helped me get started had not? what is the range of value for doing a particular job?

 

[atpcliff]

Hi!

The pilot shortage IS already affecting the majors in 3 ways:

1-they are losing revenue, because passengers who were originally going to be on their flights did not make it, because the feeder flight was late or cancelled

2-the number of applicants is way down, compared with what they are used to

3-the experience level of the applicants is also down compared with what they are used to.

cliff
YIP

 

[hindsight2020]

$100k in 10 years might be nice. However, if people are going broke and living off of food stamps the previous 9 years, you'll need a lot more than $100k to make up for that.

I agree with the whole "pay your dues" thing. I'm in the military, we wrote the book on that stuff. Two things I have noticed about military pay:
1) I'm not getting rich (not in it for that either).
2) The money the gov't does me is enough to cover all of my needs and a lot of my wants. I am never looking to promotion as a means of "catching up" on debt I racked up due to low pay.

Look at the pay scales out there. First year pay sucks (gotta pay those dues), but most places don't have great second year pay either. So, if you're going into debt in year 1, when do you "catch up". Never. It's nearly impossible to live off $35k-$40k a year (that's before taxes). People have to pay rent/mortgage, student loans (I'll be paying those dues for a LONG time), car loans, retirement, etc.

So, $100k in 10 years doesn't sound so bad, but what's it going to take to get there? I argue that the reason any "shortage" might be induced in this industry (or at least in US aviation) is because many people look at those 9 years and say f*** it, I'll do something else.

Skyward80

'2'

As a Reservist and a low-time guy I can vouch for how ridiculous the thought of working for a regional as the alternative is. No thank you. I value my time at home and my professional time more than to invest a college education and pilot training into a nominal 35K/year compensation for half a decade and be gone from home half the month. In that sense "pay your dues" is a bowl of sh$t. Nobody should be expected to starve to fulfill one's professional duties. Accepting unlivable wages for a decade as a tradeoff for a bigger carrot is just not economically sensible; give me a competitive starting wage and then we're talking, otherwise I agree, it's just not worth it. There is no pilot shortage, just shortage of well-compensated pilot jobs, and a surplus of qualified applicants for those few jobs. I am sure if military aviation was not available to me I would have pursued other avenues of employment and made flying recreationally a goal.

 

[pilotyip]

This is still a great career, upper income of the US more time at home than most other jobs. And if you fly for the right reason, i.e. love of flying you will be the happiest guy on the block. BTW where else are most of the pilots going to go to come anywhere near the the airline wages.

 

[Ultra Grump]

100K is a very achievable wage in the aviation industry after 10 years, what is wrong with than? It is a good income; I have never seen it and am doing just fine.

Yeah, $100k is great if you can stand living in the frozen boondocks. Not so great in any large city, and certainly not if it's anyplace warm and desirable.

 

[gunfyter]

Yip,

I could have done almost anything else (for the las 30 yrs) and been better off than I am now.

I have come to the conclusion that this "love of flying" is a disease that has caused me to be broke mot of my life.

 

[pilotyip]

Would not know never been there

Yeah, $100k is great if you can stand living in the frozen boondocks. Not so great in any large city, and certainly not if it's anyplace warm and desirable.

Don't understand, I have never made that number, I own a house, three cars, an airplane, and have decent retirement set up. And on top of this I live in a big city. I am getting by just fine, why is it impossible for others?

 

[skyward80]

100K is a very achievable wage in the aviation industry after 10 years, what is wrong with than? It is a good income; I have never seen it and am doing just fine. Nowhere did I say you should not try t0 make more. BTW What is middle class income? is it 46K, 50 percentile, is it 75K, 70 percentile, is in 90K, 80 percentile, is it 110K 90 percentile. Most pilots make a good living compared to the rest of the individuals in this country, and most are doing something they like. You have to pay your dues someplace to start out in this business

pilotyip:

I think you may have missed my point. $100k is a good income. No arguing that. I don't think people are walking away from this industry because their employers wanted to pay them $100k. I think the reason people leave the industry or go to Asia or the Middle East, is because $100k is achievable much more quickly there than it is in the US.

It boils down to this: people don't want to wait years upon years to earn $100k. It's true, you can't just start earning it overnight (pay the dues), but how long does a pilot need to live off of low pay before he can earn $100k? Everybody will make this decision differently. Some are willing to wait. Many aren't.

BTW, when I talk about pay, I am also thinking QOL.

Skyward80

 

[Ultra Grump]

Don't understand, I have never made that number, I own a house, three cars, an airplane, and have decent retirement set up. And on top of this I live in a big city. I am getting by just fine, why is it impossible for others?

Detroit, MI (aka Frozen Boondocks):
http://www.housingtracker.net/old_housingtracker/location/Michigan/Detroit/
Median home price as of 3/1/08: $89,000

San Diego, CA (aka Warm and Desirable):
http://www.housingtracker.net/old_housingtracker/location/California/SanDiego/
Median home price as of 3/1/08: $399,900


Understand now?

 

[BengalsFan]

And both falling like rocks... pretty soon $100k will buy you anything you want (except for those of us dumb enough to have bought a house already in Cali)

 

[Ultra Grump]

Unfortunately, the "falling like rocks" part is true. But it'll never get back to $100k anywhere in Cali. I was looking at a graph of SoCal median prices over the last 30 years or so, and it'd have to go from the current $415k to something like $175k to get to 2000 levels. I don't see that happening. The point, however, was that for someone willing to live in a sh!thole like Detroit, it'd be pretty easy to own a house and 3 cars on a pretty meager salary. Just because that's his standard for a "good salary" doesn't make it so for many, many others.

 

[Mr. Pebbles]

Don't understand, I have never made that number, I own a house, three cars, an airplane, and have decent retirement set up. And on top of this I live in a big city. I am getting by just fine, why is it impossible for others?

You were one of those guys in school that said, "Teacher, you didn't give us any homework!" weren't you.

Fact of the matter is, paying dues aside, no pilot should be defending the shi**ty pay that is becoming standard across this industry.

 

[pilotyip]

I have lived there also

Unfortunately, the "falling like rocks" part is true. But it'll never get back to $100k anywhere in Cali. I was looking at a graph of SoCal median prices over the last 30 years or so, and it'd have to go from the current $415k to something like $175k to get to 2000 levels. I don't see that happening. The point, however, was that for someone willing to live in a sh!thole like Detroit, it'd be pretty easy to own a house and 3 cars on a pretty meager salary. Just because that's his standard for a "good salary" doesn't make it so for many, many others.

I have lived in CA, NC, TX, FL, etc. One person's hole is another person's happy home. To each his own. I am happy and that is what it is all about. Sorry you don't like that. BTW I get to fly the B-17 and C-47 for free in summer.

 

[Ultra Grump]

I have lived in CA, NC, TX, FL, etc. One person's hole is another person's happy home. To each his own. I am happy and that is what it is all about. Sorry you don't like that.

That is not what I don't like. What I don't like is that you essentially keep repeating (in this thread and many others over the years) that "we're paid enough, how much more do we need?" That attitude is why, overall, pilot pay is way too low.

BTW I get to fly the B-17 and C-47 for free in summer.

Congratulations. What does that have to do with anything?

 

[BengalsFan]

sorry just bitching outloud

I'll admit, my comment had nothing constructive to add to this thread... I was just complaining out loud about how I thought I got a great deal 4 months ago and used a conventional loan and put money down. Now, I'm not upside down (yet), thank god... but I'm pissed that retards who used negative ammoratization loans and 1-2 year arms are foreclosing everywhere and that made my deal not so good... and I'm scared its gonna continue to fall.... anyways, I'm still not adding anything to this thread, so I'm outtie... peace!

Unfortunately, the "falling like rocks" part is true. But it'll never get back to $100k anywhere in Cali. I was looking at a graph of SoCal median prices over the last 30 years or so, and it'd have to go from the current $415k to something like $175k to get to 2000 levels. I don't see that happening. The point, however, was that for someone willing to live in a sh!thole like Detroit, it'd be pretty easy to own a house and 3 cars on a pretty meager salary. Just because that's his standard for a "good salary" doesn't make it so for many, many others.

 

[netjetwife]

That is not what I don't like. What I don't like is that you essentially keep repeating (in this thread and many others over the years) that "we're paid enough, how much more do we need?" That attitude is why, overall, pilot pay is way too low....

Good post, UG! Frac pilots are NOT greedy as Pilotyip implies. It is right and completely fair for professional pilots to expect compensation that matches their level of responsibility and skills. Pilotyip states that he's happy and "that is what it is all about". Leaving aside the selfish aspect of his post, I'd like to publicly thank the pilots who realize that it's a fairness issue and one pilot's low standards should never be the yardstick for an entire industry. Thanks, UG! Thanks, guys! NJW