Pilot Shortage

[captain dad]

There is a huge shortage that started five years ago. The full effects will take maybe another five due to the age 65 law patching the leak, so to speak.

You have regionals lowering mins to extremely low levels, some talking about running ab initio training. While some have had to cancel a substantial number of flights due to lack of staff.

You have the DOT and FAA as well as schools them selves claiming flight school enrollment will not meet future demand.

You have industry growth and expansion with forecasts, put out by the DOT annually, showing increasing demand for pilots.

If you don't believe me go talk to a regional pilot and ask him how much time his FO had when he got hired a week ago.

When I was in flight school (15 years ago) there were instructors trying to go anywhere that had 4,000 + hours and had been instructors for 5 + years. Ten years ago I had 1,200 hours and one year as a CFI when hired at a regional. Today, a friend of mine was hired by the same reputable regional with 600 hours and 25 multi. and no CFI.

It isn't the fact that qualified pilots aren't applying to these places. The Fact is that there aren't enough qualified pilots. And it is going to get worse.

I just hope that the airlines respond in a positive way to make it safer for the general public. Ab initio classes would be a great idea. Maximize the exposure to the environment the pilot needs to do his job safely. I am hopeful but don't expect much.

For the rest of us yes the higher demand will raise the bar on several levels. I suggest you save as much money as possible for the next down turn.

 

[EngineOut]

Another thing I notice is the mega-low timers had to put in less (effort, dues, time, whatever) to get where they are, therefore, tend to be the first to exit the industry in search of another line of work when it starts to suck.

 

[Flyby1206]

We need volunteers from 1108 to apply to the regionals starting with MESA....

To infiltrate and STRONG UNIONIZE the Regionals.

I ask you... Should there be a single RJ Captain making less than $100K? RJ SIC's $50K or more.


I think this is an achievable goal.

We need a national organization of pilots to do for us what the AMA has done for Doctors ... keep compensation high.

I think the key is to keep minimum requirements and barriers to entry high. Regionals will hire anyone with a pulse, regardless of what any airline union would say. Fracs have contracts with the owners stating that pilots must have 2500hrs and an ATP. This means when they are short on applicants they must raise pay/benefits to attract pilots who DO meet the mins. Regionals can just drop minimum requirements so that supply meets demand.

 

[gunfyter]

I think the key is to keep minimum requirements and barriers to entry high. Regionals will hire anyone with a pulse, regardless of what any airline union would say. Fracs have contracts with the owners stating that pilots must have 2500hrs and an ATP. This means when they are short on applicants they must raise pay/benefits to attract pilots who DO meet the mins. Regionals can just drop minimum requirements so that supply meets demand.

Exactly what the AMA does for Docs.... keep the entry to med schools dificult.

 

[pilotyip]

12 years ago 1996, as a 10,000 hour pilot I was turned down by AE because I did not have 500 hours in the last year. I only had 390 hours turbine ME time in BE-200. But ACA would have hired me if I would have paid them 10K for the right seat of JS-31. My how times have changed.

 

[phr8dawg]

It has always been my opinion that the knowledge base to be a safe pilot is contained in only about ten books. If the same could be said for sim training, the market could easily create needed pilots. The problem is that our training techniques are outdated. We need interactive sim technology at the private level, not just for jets.

 

[*#$% Headwinds]

Whenever anybody asks me about career advice in aviation, I tell them to go to truck driving school. It costs a lot less, and you will be making more next month than I have made after 15 years.

 

[gunfyter]

12 years ago 1996, as a 10,000 hour pilot I was turned down by AE because I did not have 500 hours in the last year. I only had 390 hours turbine ME time in BE-200. But ACA would have hired me if I would have paid them 10K for the right seat of JS-31. My how times have changed.

Same with me but I was a low timer with only 5000 hrs.

 

[skyward80]

The regional minimums have risen and fallen quite a bit over the last decade or so. I believe we are experiencing a natural growth cycle which will probably be cut short by the recession on the horizon. Regional minimums are not a good indicator of what's going on in our industry. I read an article in Aviation Week a while back that stated that one of NWA's express carriers couldn't hold on to pilots. I forget which carrier it was, but I remember looking only at the pay and it was lousy.

From a global perspective... Is there a pilot shortage? You bet. Is the west hurting for pilots? Nope. If pay and working conditions were different, I bet we'd see a lot more people applying to regionals and possibly staying there a little longer. Plenty of guys out there who don't even consider some of these companies because they can't afford to work there.

When pay and working conditions suck, it doesn't take long for the shine to wear off of even the most shiny penny.

Skyward80

 

[Fozzy]

"She is going from suck to blow"

Another thing I notice is the mega-low timers had to put in less (effort, dues, time, whatever) to get where they are, therefore, tend to be the first to exit the industry in search of another line of work when it starts to suck.

My personal opinion is that it already sucks.
Walking through the terminal (especially the crew bases) makes me sick to my stomach. I think just the thought of having to do that work again gives me the shakes.

The root of the shortage is lack of money and QOL. Who wants to do this job if your life will suck and they pay you peanuts? I won't.