Pilot Shortage

[atpcliff]

Hi!

The pilot shortage IS already affecting the majors in 3 ways:

1-they are losing revenue, because passengers who were originally going to be on their flights did not make it, because the feeder flight was late or cancelled

2-the number of applicants is way down, compared with what they are used to

3-the experience level of the applicants is also down compared with what they are used to.

cliff
YIP

 

[hindsight2020]

$100k in 10 years might be nice. However, if people are going broke and living off of food stamps the previous 9 years, you'll need a lot more than $100k to make up for that.

I agree with the whole "pay your dues" thing. I'm in the military, we wrote the book on that stuff. Two things I have noticed about military pay:
1) I'm not getting rich (not in it for that either).
2) The money the gov't does me is enough to cover all of my needs and a lot of my wants. I am never looking to promotion as a means of "catching up" on debt I racked up due to low pay.

Look at the pay scales out there. First year pay sucks (gotta pay those dues), but most places don't have great second year pay either. So, if you're going into debt in year 1, when do you "catch up". Never. It's nearly impossible to live off $35k-$40k a year (that's before taxes). People have to pay rent/mortgage, student loans (I'll be paying those dues for a LONG time), car loans, retirement, etc.

So, $100k in 10 years doesn't sound so bad, but what's it going to take to get there? I argue that the reason any "shortage" might be induced in this industry (or at least in US aviation) is because many people look at those 9 years and say f*** it, I'll do something else.

Skyward80

'2'

As a Reservist and a low-time guy I can vouch for how ridiculous the thought of working for a regional as the alternative is. No thank you. I value my time at home and my professional time more than to invest a college education and pilot training into a nominal 35K/year compensation for half a decade and be gone from home half the month. In that sense "pay your dues" is a bowl of sh$t. Nobody should be expected to starve to fulfill one's professional duties. Accepting unlivable wages for a decade as a tradeoff for a bigger carrot is just not economically sensible; give me a competitive starting wage and then we're talking, otherwise I agree, it's just not worth it. There is no pilot shortage, just shortage of well-compensated pilot jobs, and a surplus of qualified applicants for those few jobs. I am sure if military aviation was not available to me I would have pursued other avenues of employment and made flying recreationally a goal.

 

[pilotyip]

This is still a great career, upper income of the US more time at home than most other jobs. And if you fly for the right reason, i.e. love of flying you will be the happiest guy on the block. BTW where else are most of the pilots going to go to come anywhere near the the airline wages.

 

[Ultra Grump]

100K is a very achievable wage in the aviation industry after 10 years, what is wrong with than? It is a good income; I have never seen it and am doing just fine.

Yeah, $100k is great if you can stand living in the frozen boondocks. Not so great in any large city, and certainly not if it's anyplace warm and desirable.

 

[gunfyter]

Yip,

I could have done almost anything else (for the las 30 yrs) and been better off than I am now.

I have come to the conclusion that this "love of flying" is a disease that has caused me to be broke mot of my life.

 

[pilotyip]

Would not know never been there

Yeah, $100k is great if you can stand living in the frozen boondocks. Not so great in any large city, and certainly not if it's anyplace warm and desirable.

Don't understand, I have never made that number, I own a house, three cars, an airplane, and have decent retirement set up. And on top of this I live in a big city. I am getting by just fine, why is it impossible for others?

 

[skyward80]

100K is a very achievable wage in the aviation industry after 10 years, what is wrong with than? It is a good income; I have never seen it and am doing just fine. Nowhere did I say you should not try t0 make more. BTW What is middle class income? is it 46K, 50 percentile, is it 75K, 70 percentile, is in 90K, 80 percentile, is it 110K 90 percentile. Most pilots make a good living compared to the rest of the individuals in this country, and most are doing something they like. You have to pay your dues someplace to start out in this business

pilotyip:

I think you may have missed my point. $100k is a good income. No arguing that. I don't think people are walking away from this industry because their employers wanted to pay them $100k. I think the reason people leave the industry or go to Asia or the Middle East, is because $100k is achievable much more quickly there than it is in the US.

It boils down to this: people don't want to wait years upon years to earn $100k. It's true, you can't just start earning it overnight (pay the dues), but how long does a pilot need to live off of low pay before he can earn $100k? Everybody will make this decision differently. Some are willing to wait. Many aren't.

BTW, when I talk about pay, I am also thinking QOL.

Skyward80

 

[Ultra Grump]

Don't understand, I have never made that number, I own a house, three cars, an airplane, and have decent retirement set up. And on top of this I live in a big city. I am getting by just fine, why is it impossible for others?

Detroit, MI (aka Frozen Boondocks):
http://www.housingtracker.net/old_housingtracker/location/Michigan/Detroit/
Median home price as of 3/1/08: $89,000

San Diego, CA (aka Warm and Desirable):
http://www.housingtracker.net/old_housingtracker/location/California/SanDiego/
Median home price as of 3/1/08: $399,900


Understand now?

 

[BengalsFan]

And both falling like rocks... pretty soon $100k will buy you anything you want (except for those of us dumb enough to have bought a house already in Cali)

 

[Ultra Grump]

Unfortunately, the "falling like rocks" part is true. But it'll never get back to $100k anywhere in Cali. I was looking at a graph of SoCal median prices over the last 30 years or so, and it'd have to go from the current $415k to something like $175k to get to 2000 levels. I don't see that happening. The point, however, was that for someone willing to live in a sh!thole like Detroit, it'd be pretty easy to own a house and 3 cars on a pretty meager salary. Just because that's his standard for a "good salary" doesn't make it so for many, many others.

 

[Mr. Pebbles]

Don't understand, I have never made that number, I own a house, three cars, an airplane, and have decent retirement set up. And on top of this I live in a big city. I am getting by just fine, why is it impossible for others?

You were one of those guys in school that said, "Teacher, you didn't give us any homework!" weren't you.

Fact of the matter is, paying dues aside, no pilot should be defending the shi**ty pay that is becoming standard across this industry.

 

[pilotyip]

I have lived there also

Unfortunately, the "falling like rocks" part is true. But it'll never get back to $100k anywhere in Cali. I was looking at a graph of SoCal median prices over the last 30 years or so, and it'd have to go from the current $415k to something like $175k to get to 2000 levels. I don't see that happening. The point, however, was that for someone willing to live in a sh!thole like Detroit, it'd be pretty easy to own a house and 3 cars on a pretty meager salary. Just because that's his standard for a "good salary" doesn't make it so for many, many others.

I have lived in CA, NC, TX, FL, etc. One person's hole is another person's happy home. To each his own. I am happy and that is what it is all about. Sorry you don't like that. BTW I get to fly the B-17 and C-47 for free in summer.

 

[Ultra Grump]

I have lived in CA, NC, TX, FL, etc. One person's hole is another person's happy home. To each his own. I am happy and that is what it is all about. Sorry you don't like that.

That is not what I don't like. What I don't like is that you essentially keep repeating (in this thread and many others over the years) that "we're paid enough, how much more do we need?" That attitude is why, overall, pilot pay is way too low.

BTW I get to fly the B-17 and C-47 for free in summer.

Congratulations. What does that have to do with anything?

 

[BengalsFan]

sorry just bitching outloud

I'll admit, my comment had nothing constructive to add to this thread... I was just complaining out loud about how I thought I got a great deal 4 months ago and used a conventional loan and put money down. Now, I'm not upside down (yet), thank god... but I'm pissed that retards who used negative ammoratization loans and 1-2 year arms are foreclosing everywhere and that made my deal not so good... and I'm scared its gonna continue to fall.... anyways, I'm still not adding anything to this thread, so I'm outtie... peace!

Unfortunately, the "falling like rocks" part is true. But it'll never get back to $100k anywhere in Cali. I was looking at a graph of SoCal median prices over the last 30 years or so, and it'd have to go from the current $415k to something like $175k to get to 2000 levels. I don't see that happening. The point, however, was that for someone willing to live in a sh!thole like Detroit, it'd be pretty easy to own a house and 3 cars on a pretty meager salary. Just because that's his standard for a "good salary" doesn't make it so for many, many others.

 

[netjetwife]

That is not what I don't like. What I don't like is that you essentially keep repeating (in this thread and many others over the years) that "we're paid enough, how much more do we need?" That attitude is why, overall, pilot pay is way too low....

Good post, UG! Frac pilots are NOT greedy as Pilotyip implies. It is right and completely fair for professional pilots to expect compensation that matches their level of responsibility and skills. Pilotyip states that he's happy and "that is what it is all about". Leaving aside the selfish aspect of his post, I'd like to publicly thank the pilots who realize that it's a fairness issue and one pilot's low standards should never be the yardstick for an entire industry. Thanks, UG! Thanks, guys! NJW