Northwest Airlines Files 1113

[NuGuy]

...but there are very few 40 year old guys at NWA, they are all on the street.

Uh, yea...apparently you aren't quite up on the demographics at NWA as you profess...

Most of my friends at NWA are in the under-40 crowd, and not only are they quite numerous, but also still employed and, despite your best wishes, at least 1000 numbers from being furloughed.

But the NWA pilots have nothing to prove in this regard anyway. Along with Comair, they've already earned their star.



Nu

 

[Lear70]

Also, the Judge must pick either the entire management or union proposal, he/she can't pick certain parts from both proposals. The choice will be the new contract.

I didn't know that; I thought the judge could pick and choose from both proposals to come up with the new contract...

Also, at the end of the 51 days....if an agreement hasn't been reached, the deadline can be extended, with the agreement of management, the union, and the Judge. 320AV8R

THAT is what will keep NWA from extending things. They can't repeatedly file an 1113(c); it's a one-time filing, and the company AND the union must agree to extend the 51 day window. If they BOTH don't agree to do so, the judge steps in.

I wonder about NWA; their demographic is DRASTICALLY different than USAirways, the only other Ch. 11 I followed closely because my dad was working there at the time.

The USA pilot demographic was LARGELY 45-60 year old pilots, the most junior F/O had 20 years, my dad had 23 years and was getting displaced to F/O after being a CA since 1986. He took early retirement because the pension payment with the PBGC was higher and has been looking for work, with little luck, even though he flew Lears previously for almost a decade.

The market is flooded with people current and qualified and looking for better jobs. The only flying to be had is overseas in the Asian, African, or Eastern European markets at pay rates of $7,000 per month plus housing, no medical / dental coverage. It is tax-free, but you have to stay out of country minimum 300 days per year to keep the U.S. from snagging taxes.

Fast forward to NWA where there the most senior furloughee was hired around 1999 and the average F/O age is probably in the high 30's, low 40's, average CA in the high 40's, low 50's. There are many who could get jobs at AirTran, jetBlue or even one of the int'l gigs.

That makes them a big unknown whether they will take a stand or not. I don't think Duane Woerth will, but the top 10% has the most to lose with no way to get it back before mandatory retirement.

We'll probably see one of those 60/40 splits one way or another where it passes by the slimmest of margins amongst one of the most heated debates ever seen in aviation, then, if they walk, we'll see the judge order them back to work anyway while they spend a year arguing the validity of a strike in court.

Labor always tends to lose, no matter WHO sits in the Oval Office.

 

[pilotyip]

Nuguy not to dispute your figures. But from my crowd of around 15 NWA acquaintances, they are all beyond their mid 40's, that is probably because I am older. The 3 furloughs we have working for us, who were hired by NWA in 2001 and early 2000 have an average age close to 40. Figuring by next spring no body working for NWA would have been hired after 1999. Figuring an average age at time of hire early 30's, say 33, 2006 is 7 years beyond, that makes it about 40 for the low end of the age group at NWA. If that is the low end that means the majority of the NWA pilots are well over 40. To the point I was making, most of the NWA pilots are not going anywhere at this point in their lives, anymore than the TWA senior pilots when anywhere in their lives when they took big pay cuts in the 1980-90’s.

 

[NuGuy]

Pilotyip,

Your demos are off. The average age hired is lower, especially 1995-2001. The majority of classes I'm familiar with were around 30 or younger.

Nu

 

[Workin'Stiff]

Nuguy-

I'm under the same impression as pilotyip. I have several family members who work for NW, one in each "book". Bluebooks held the upper hand during the hiring days while the other two books were continually retiring. Now with the massive furlough forecasts projected at NW, Bluebook will lose the upper hand and you will see Red and Greenbooks being the vast majority. Those demographics will not strike and forfeit what that have with a very small possibility of ever acheiving that same sort of lifestyle with a different carrier, albeit at a 48% paycut. You won't be able to achieve that same paycheck (post-cut) that late in life.

 

[NuGuy]

Nuguy-

I'm under the same impression as pilotyip. I have several family members who work for NW, one in each "book". Bluebooks held the upper hand during the hiring days while the other two books were continually retiring. Now with the massive furlough forecasts projected at NW, Bluebook will lose the upper hand and you will see Red and Greenbooks being the vast majority. Those demographics will not strike and forfeit what that have with a very small possibility of ever acheiving that same sort of lifestyle with a different carrier, albeit at a 48% paycut. You won't be able to achieve that same paycheck (post-cut) that late in life.

I would agree with you IF it was the same situation as USAir. At U, the pilot group was SLOWLY bled to death over the course of a couple of years. The end being that thousands of pilots were already furloughed before the "Big Question" came up. On top of that, there was a HUGE demopgraphic gap at U, where there were hundereds of pilots furloughed for several years before hiring fired up again in 1998.

In the case of NWA, the "question" will be called in the next couple of months, as management seems to be hell bent on getting an "agreement" as soon as possible. This will occur before any massive furloughs.

Nu

 

[Workin'Stiff]

Potentially... If I remember correctly, the 51 day window for the 1113 filing ends sometime in early December, right??? This takes into account that both sides don't file a motion for extension (though I highly doubt management would do anyways). But I'm kind of fuzzy on the furlough dates, but there are supposed to be a number of furloughs this quarter followed by another one in early January? This 1113 filing could potentially drag into January when there would be, again, a massive furlough occuring. Lots of variables, but I do agree with you in part.

 

[PBRstreetgang]

What exactly does that have to do with anything? If ALPA had supported the AMFA strike and walked out with them, then the result would have been an immediate Ch. 7 filing and the end of all Red Tail jobs. How exactly is that better than this?

This is the low level of thinking that brought this industry to it's current level. I have a hard time believing that people could be so clueless, you are in the same category as the mgmt that pulls the strings attached to your puppet like persona. 911 was mgmts excuse to rape and pillage the airline labor movement and they will not be happy until you are making slightly more than the local freeway offramp beggar. Newsflash toolbox, you are LABOR and subject to the whims and vagarities of the mgmt that acts as puppeteer. You think that it is some mysterious process that the lorenzo's and wolfes magically appear at the top of airline managment structures, ok here is a free one, they are "hired" to crush your worthless career to maximize corporate profits, nothing more, nothing less. You wanna know why? Read these message boards there are dozens(once hundreds), of newbie pilots who will do your job for half of what you get(wife, parents will support them). You are a dinosaur waiting for your career to sink into the mud pits of extinction, the new mgmt model is to renew the senority lists with layoffs, furloughs and other legal mechanisims designed to limit your senority to 5 years of less. After your 3rd or 4th furlough you will walk away to that lowes plumbing dept job, and make space for the next clueless toolbox who "loves flying" your passion will be exploited mercilessly until your a$$ bleeds like a child molester's in a prison cellblock. Sorry for the rant, continue with your regularly scheduled rant.
PBR

 

[PBRstreetgang]

Eastern Airlines?

via the Lorenzo effect, he wanted to chop it up labor just made it easier and gave him a scapegoat.
PBR

 

[JohnDoe]

While not as "PC" as some would like.......PBR is pretty much spot-on in his assesment. As long as there are those willing to do this job for 20k a year, which there are by the thousands, nothing will change.

Just look at what NW management is hoping to obtain in their proposal. If they get it (wet-leasing, third-party vendors, etc), they will be able to replace any workgroup at-will when they cause "trouble" with the next lower bidder.

The only way to stop it at this point is to "shut it down" and that is not going to happen. Every other employee group at every other carrier has given-in over the last 5 years.