No comment on ASA PBS LOA yet?

[Jack-O-Lantern]

Still not answering my question. Why can't we shrink to profitability through attrition?

Are you kidding? Do you know what attrition is? There is nobody retiring or moving on to greener pastures.
You tell us!
Also,attrition through PBS is yet to be seen or known.

 

[aircombat]

Yea! Let the few of these who are the least experienced in our industry vote on our future.
For F$%K sake!
Oh, and please tell us all how we've plotted to ruin our industry!

I have a few examples how the experienced pilots ruined our profession such as relaxing scope, voting for age 65. The experienced have nothing to lose to throw generations of junior guys under the bus. The young guys have everything to lose. You are no different by saying things like “PBS will only prolong the call back to some degree”. Nice downplay.

 

[GeekMaster]

Aircombat,

No one on this board is going to change your mind. You've already decided and closed your mind to any further debate. The primary reason so many on here are "arguing" with you is for the benefit of those who read your posts that are a little closer to the edge and still willing to consider the facts before they vote. So, this post isn't for you so much as for THEM.

The big picture:

Skywest Inc IS working on a bigger long range plan. They "want" the plan to involve ASA because it is an asset they already own. However, they will enact their plan "TO WORK" with or without us. There plan involves a belief that not all of the current players will be in the game in the near future. Whether Mesa finally dies or Republic gets out of the regional business or whoever isn't that important. What IS important is they're convinced that some of the players will be missing. Therefore, they are posturing themselves to be the go to carrier for providing the lift. Most of us agree there won't be any Regional "growth", so growth for Skywest must come in the form of transferred business.

Now that we've got the big picture, let's look at all the pretty colors:

Skywest can function better with multiple certificates. It's already been established that they often have to deal with "no compete" clauses. So, it would benefit them immensely to include us in their plans. While they may "wish" we weren't Unionized, they don't hate us. But in order for us to fit into their plans, we have to be more efficient and cost effective. Right now we simply are not. Wait it out you say? IF WE WAIT IT OUT, THIS TRAIN WILL LEAVE WITHOUT US. Plain and simple.

Now to the forefront; the issue at hand:

THIS PBS LETTER IS A GOOD LETTER. In fact, it is by far the best PBS letter in the entire airline industry. So here's your challenge. There are many carriers using PBS. NAME ONE that got a better PBS agreement or has a better PBS system. Accepting it NOW will give our parent company a true incentive to include us more fairly in their plans. YES, THEY MUST GROW US TO SAVE ANY MONEY WITH THE PBS SYSTEM. That is a mathematical fact and not a prediction. If you need a scientific/mathematical explanation, I will be happy to give it in a separate post.

If we reject this PBS letter now, WE WILL HAVE LESS LEVERAGE in section 6. Not just a little less.....A LOT LESS !!!! For starters, Inc will show up with AOS or whatever the system they're using at Skywest Airlines and tell the mediator their side of the story. They will point out how they are trying very hard to compete and how that system is already owned and how well that pilot group is doing. They will further point out how high our costs are and how inefficient our bidding system is and that we are now in a minority. Now, guess what!! To the mediator, who isn't partial to pilot groups, it's going to sound like a reasonable argument.

So there are two choices:
1. Accept this agreement.....because of its own merit and its good....and try to work with our parent company and be reasonable with them and encourage them to make us a part of the big picture.

2. Reject this agreement and go back into to the same old spit in your face relationship we are accustomed to from our past management teams....and take at chance of "forcing" ourselves on them (kind of sounds like rape) and see how that works out.

This isn't about SH. He's just a pawn and has absolutely NO SAY in any decisions related to ASA's fate. I don't like him either and see him as incompetent. THIS IS about SKYWEST INC and their business plan.

If we keep doing what we're doing, we'll keep gettin' what we're gettin".

 

[aircombat]

Are you kidding? Do you know what attrition is? There is nobody retiring or moving on to greener pastures.
You tell us!
Also,attrition through PBS is yet to be seen or known.

you guys really only look ahead a few inches don't you? THIS IS GOING TO LAST FOR MANY MANY YEARS!!!
Also, stop saying that the company will not save a dime without growth because that is a lie.

 

[Jack-O-Lantern]

Wow! With all these people who get the big picture here,aircombat, why can't you and a very select few comprehend this?
Perhaps one day this reality check will lunge itself into you narrow minded head!

 

[aircombat]

I’m not saying this in not a good PBS system. It probably is a very good PBS. I’m just saying there is no growth right now so take it to section 6 in hopes to get a quick agreement with slight improvements in the language and maybe a bonus check. Or we can gruel it out for many years because the company has no motivation to sign.
They are not going to scrap everything negotiated just because it goes to section 6.

 

[aircombat]

Wow! With all these people who get the big picture here,aircombat, why can't you and a very select few comprehend this?
Perhaps one day this reality check will lunge itself into you narrow minded head!

there is more than just a few. maybe not on FI because they are smart enough to not pay to listen to you good old boys.

 

[GeekMaster]

As for leverage in Section 6. THERE WILL BE LEVERAGE IN SECTION 6. Just as Inc. needs to settle up this PBS issue as early as possible, they also need to close up all their labor cost issues for the next several years in order to fully pursue their goals. They've EVEN AGREED TO AN ACCELERATED TIMETABLE as part of this PBS. You don't think they're motivated? Look at our last contract when the goal for the company was to drag it out as long as humanly possible. Here they are actually agreeing to start negotiations a year early and file jointly for mediation if things don't get finished by a set date.

Aside from needing their labor issues settled, there are other points of leverage we will have that aren't really prudent to discuss in an open forum such as this one "right now".

 

[PCL_128]

They are not going to scrap everything negotiated just because it goes to section 6.

Actually, that's exactly what they'll do. It's what I would do if I was in their position, because it's how they gain the maximum leverage and hold up the Section 6 process indefinitely without incurring any wrath from the NMB.

You really need to listen to the people that have dealt with Section 6 and the NMB rather than dreaming up your own theories.

 

[aircombat]

As for leverage in Section 6. THERE WILL BE LEVERAGE IN SECTION 6. Just as Inc. needs to settle up this PBS issue as early as possible, they also need to close up all their labor cost issues for the next several years in order to fully pursue their goals. They've EVEN AGREED TO AN ACCELERATED TIMETABLE as part of this PBS. You don't think they're motivated? Look at our last contract when the goal for the company was to drag it out as long as humanly possible. Here they are actually agreeing to start negotiations a year early and file jointly for mediation if things don't get finished by a set date.

Aside from needing their labor issues settled, there are other points of leverage we will have that aren't really prudent to discuss in an open forum such as this one "right now".

There is definitely no shortage of smoke an mirrors in this. Unfortunately it works. A timetable is as solid as the promise for growth. And paying for the first 18 months of negotiations is nothing.
I hope that I am wrong I really do. Nothing would make me happier then for you guys to say I told you so. Sadly I think that I will be doing the finger pointing after years of negotiations and stagnation.

 

[GeekMaster]

I’m not saying this in not a good PBS system. It probably is a very good PBS. I’m just saying there is no growth right now so take it to section 6 in hopes to get a quick agreement with slight improvements in the language and maybe a bonus check. Or we can gruel it out for many years because the company has no motivation to sign.
They are not going to scrap everything negotiated just because it goes to section 6.

WOW. You really are unfamiliar with section 6.

I don't have another long post in me today to explain it to you, BUT, here's the very basic.

Each side prepares an opener. In that opener, each side puts forth their "dream contract"; more than they KNOW they will ever get. THEN they negotiate to an agreeable middle. They do their best to make that agreeable middle as close to their side as possible.

SKYWEST WILL THROW OUT EVERYTHING NEGOTIATED ON PBS because they KNOW that an impartial mediator will see the reason in their argument regarding the PBS system they already own.

 

[aircombat]

WOW. You really are unfamiliar with section 6.

I don't have another long post in me today to explain it to you, BUT, here's the very basic.

Each side prepares an opener. In that opener, each side puts forth their "dream contract"; more than they KNOW they will ever get. THEN they negotiate to an agreeable middle. They do their best to make that agreeable middle as close to their side as possible.

SKYWEST WILL THROW OUT EVERYTHING NEGOTIATED ON PBS because they KNOW that an impartial mediator will see the reason in their argument regarding the PBS system they already own.

Well then why won’t that happen anyhow in a few months during section 6. You can show the mediator what was already agreed upon. Why would they send something worse to the pilot group just to get voted down a second time? And again what is the chance that the company will wait as long as it would take to go to arbitration?

 

[GeekMaster]

Well then why won’t that happen anyhow in a few months during section 6. You can show the mediator what was already agreed upon. Why would they send something worse to the pilot group just to get voted down a second time? And again what is the chance that the company will wait as long as it would take to go to arbitration?

The short answer to ALL those questions is that the deal that's currently on the table IS a good deal for both parties. You've already acknowledged that yourself a few posts earlier. IT IS the price they feel they can pay and still shop our product out competitively.

Now I will ask YOU a question. WHAT EXACTLY do you feel we should add to the current deal, that you've just acknowledged as probably a good deal, to make it better while at the same time not putting us right back in the uncompetitive boat?

 

[PCL_128]

You can show the mediator what was already agreed upon.

Once you reject a TA, it's no longer "agreed upon."

Why would they send something worse to the pilot group just to get voted down a second time?

You're not listening. They won't be sending anything to the pilot group to get voted down a second time, because they'll be able to stall for 5+ years in Section 6 because you'll have no leverage of a strike. After those 5+ years, you'll end up caving on PBS, probably to terms far less than what you've got in this current PBS TA, because the NMB will make it very clear that you're never getting released as long as you hold out for something better on PBS.

You probably weren't in the industry at the time, but a story from ExpressJet's last contract negotiations may help you understand how this process really works:

Back in 2003, the ExressJet pilots were in Section 6 trying to hammer out a deal. This was before Comair and everyone else took big concessions in bankruptcy, so the old Comair rates were still in effect. So, the ExpressJet pilots wanted to improve upon the Comair contract and "jack up the house." They wanted a mid-seniority Captain to be able to make $100k per year. They got down to almost everything in the contract being finished except for compensation.

What did the NMB say to them about their pay rate demands? This is a direct quote: "Come back to us when you've stopped smoking crack."

Less than a year later, the ExpressJet pilots settled for the pay rates you see in their contract today, which is far below what they were demanding. The moral of the story? You have to play the game, and the NMB makes the rules. What you have in front of you for the PBS TA is the best thing you're going to see, because you're going to get raped in Section 6 if you don't already have a favorable PBS system in place. Don't lose just because you don't know the rules of the game.

 

[Poppa Hodax]

...In fact, it is by far the best PBS letter in the entire airline industry.
[snip]

This is like saying you have the most awesome Yugo in the world. It is still a Yugo.
Again, I haven't spoken to anyone who said that PBS made things better, but a lot said things got worse. Even if the ASA letter is the best in the industry, empirically speaking, PBS still is a bad deal.