No comment on ASA PBS LOA yet?

[Jack-O-Lantern]

Still not answering my question. Why can't we shrink to profitability through attrition?

Are you kidding? Do you know what attrition is? There is nobody retiring or moving on to greener pastures.
You tell us!
Also,attrition through PBS is yet to be seen or known.

 

[aircombat]

Yea! Let the few of these who are the least experienced in our industry vote on our future.
For F$%K sake!
Oh, and please tell us all how we've plotted to ruin our industry!

I have a few examples how the experienced pilots ruined our profession such as relaxing scope, voting for age 65. The experienced have nothing to lose to throw generations of junior guys under the bus. The young guys have everything to lose. You are no different by saying things like “PBS will only prolong the call back to some degree”. Nice downplay.

 

[GeekMaster]

Aircombat,

No one on this board is going to change your mind. You've already decided and closed your mind to any further debate. The primary reason so many on here are "arguing" with you is for the benefit of those who read your posts that are a little closer to the edge and still willing to consider the facts before they vote. So, this post isn't for you so much as for THEM.

The big picture:

Skywest Inc IS working on a bigger long range plan. They "want" the plan to involve ASA because it is an asset they already own. However, they will enact their plan "TO WORK" with or without us. There plan involves a belief that not all of the current players will be in the game in the near future. Whether Mesa finally dies or Republic gets out of the regional business or whoever isn't that important. What IS important is they're convinced that some of the players will be missing. Therefore, they are posturing themselves to be the go to carrier for providing the lift. Most of us agree there won't be any Regional "growth", so growth for Skywest must come in the form of transferred business.

Now that we've got the big picture, let's look at all the pretty colors:

Skywest can function better with multiple certificates. It's already been established that they often have to deal with "no compete" clauses. So, it would benefit them immensely to include us in their plans. While they may "wish" we weren't Unionized, they don't hate us. But in order for us to fit into their plans, we have to be more efficient and cost effective. Right now we simply are not. Wait it out you say? IF WE WAIT IT OUT, THIS TRAIN WILL LEAVE WITHOUT US. Plain and simple.

Now to the forefront; the issue at hand:

THIS PBS LETTER IS A GOOD LETTER. In fact, it is by far the best PBS letter in the entire airline industry. So here's your challenge. There are many carriers using PBS. NAME ONE that got a better PBS agreement or has a better PBS system. Accepting it NOW will give our parent company a true incentive to include us more fairly in their plans. YES, THEY MUST GROW US TO SAVE ANY MONEY WITH THE PBS SYSTEM. That is a mathematical fact and not a prediction. If you need a scientific/mathematical explanation, I will be happy to give it in a separate post.

If we reject this PBS letter now, WE WILL HAVE LESS LEVERAGE in section 6. Not just a little less.....A LOT LESS !!!! For starters, Inc will show up with AOS or whatever the system they're using at Skywest Airlines and tell the mediator their side of the story. They will point out how they are trying very hard to compete and how that system is already owned and how well that pilot group is doing. They will further point out how high our costs are and how inefficient our bidding system is and that we are now in a minority. Now, guess what!! To the mediator, who isn't partial to pilot groups, it's going to sound like a reasonable argument.

So there are two choices:
1. Accept this agreement.....because of its own merit and its good....and try to work with our parent company and be reasonable with them and encourage them to make us a part of the big picture.

2. Reject this agreement and go back into to the same old spit in your face relationship we are accustomed to from our past management teams....and take at chance of "forcing" ourselves on them (kind of sounds like rape) and see how that works out.

This isn't about SH. He's just a pawn and has absolutely NO SAY in any decisions related to ASA's fate. I don't like him either and see him as incompetent. THIS IS about SKYWEST INC and their business plan.

If we keep doing what we're doing, we'll keep gettin' what we're gettin".

 

[aircombat]

Are you kidding? Do you know what attrition is? There is nobody retiring or moving on to greener pastures.
You tell us!
Also,attrition through PBS is yet to be seen or known.

you guys really only look ahead a few inches don't you? THIS IS GOING TO LAST FOR MANY MANY YEARS!!!
Also, stop saying that the company will not save a dime without growth because that is a lie.

 

[Jack-O-Lantern]

Wow! With all these people who get the big picture here,aircombat, why can't you and a very select few comprehend this?
Perhaps one day this reality check will lunge itself into you narrow minded head!

 

[aircombat]

I’m not saying this in not a good PBS system. It probably is a very good PBS. I’m just saying there is no growth right now so take it to section 6 in hopes to get a quick agreement with slight improvements in the language and maybe a bonus check. Or we can gruel it out for many years because the company has no motivation to sign.
They are not going to scrap everything negotiated just because it goes to section 6.

 

[aircombat]

Wow! With all these people who get the big picture here,aircombat, why can't you and a very select few comprehend this?
Perhaps one day this reality check will lunge itself into you narrow minded head!

there is more than just a few. maybe not on FI because they are smart enough to not pay to listen to you good old boys.

 

[GeekMaster]

As for leverage in Section 6. THERE WILL BE LEVERAGE IN SECTION 6. Just as Inc. needs to settle up this PBS issue as early as possible, they also need to close up all their labor cost issues for the next several years in order to fully pursue their goals. They've EVEN AGREED TO AN ACCELERATED TIMETABLE as part of this PBS. You don't think they're motivated? Look at our last contract when the goal for the company was to drag it out as long as humanly possible. Here they are actually agreeing to start negotiations a year early and file jointly for mediation if things don't get finished by a set date.

Aside from needing their labor issues settled, there are other points of leverage we will have that aren't really prudent to discuss in an open forum such as this one "right now".

 

[PCL_128]

They are not going to scrap everything negotiated just because it goes to section 6.

Actually, that's exactly what they'll do. It's what I would do if I was in their position, because it's how they gain the maximum leverage and hold up the Section 6 process indefinitely without incurring any wrath from the NMB.

You really need to listen to the people that have dealt with Section 6 and the NMB rather than dreaming up your own theories.

 

[aircombat]

As for leverage in Section 6. THERE WILL BE LEVERAGE IN SECTION 6. Just as Inc. needs to settle up this PBS issue as early as possible, they also need to close up all their labor cost issues for the next several years in order to fully pursue their goals. They've EVEN AGREED TO AN ACCELERATED TIMETABLE as part of this PBS. You don't think they're motivated? Look at our last contract when the goal for the company was to drag it out as long as humanly possible. Here they are actually agreeing to start negotiations a year early and file jointly for mediation if things don't get finished by a set date.

Aside from needing their labor issues settled, there are other points of leverage we will have that aren't really prudent to discuss in an open forum such as this one "right now".

There is definitely no shortage of smoke an mirrors in this. Unfortunately it works. A timetable is as solid as the promise for growth. And paying for the first 18 months of negotiations is nothing.
I hope that I am wrong I really do. Nothing would make me happier then for you guys to say I told you so. Sadly I think that I will be doing the finger pointing after years of negotiations and stagnation.

 

[GeekMaster]

I’m not saying this in not a good PBS system. It probably is a very good PBS. I’m just saying there is no growth right now so take it to section 6 in hopes to get a quick agreement with slight improvements in the language and maybe a bonus check. Or we can gruel it out for many years because the company has no motivation to sign.
They are not going to scrap everything negotiated just because it goes to section 6.

WOW. You really are unfamiliar with section 6.

I don't have another long post in me today to explain it to you, BUT, here's the very basic.

Each side prepares an opener. In that opener, each side puts forth their "dream contract"; more than they KNOW they will ever get. THEN they negotiate to an agreeable middle. They do their best to make that agreeable middle as close to their side as possible.

SKYWEST WILL THROW OUT EVERYTHING NEGOTIATED ON PBS because they KNOW that an impartial mediator will see the reason in their argument regarding the PBS system they already own.

 

[aircombat]

WOW. You really are unfamiliar with section 6.

I don't have another long post in me today to explain it to you, BUT, here's the very basic.

Each side prepares an opener. In that opener, each side puts forth their "dream contract"; more than they KNOW they will ever get. THEN they negotiate to an agreeable middle. They do their best to make that agreeable middle as close to their side as possible.

SKYWEST WILL THROW OUT EVERYTHING NEGOTIATED ON PBS because they KNOW that an impartial mediator will see the reason in their argument regarding the PBS system they already own.

Well then why won’t that happen anyhow in a few months during section 6. You can show the mediator what was already agreed upon. Why would they send something worse to the pilot group just to get voted down a second time? And again what is the chance that the company will wait as long as it would take to go to arbitration?

 

[GeekMaster]

Well then why won’t that happen anyhow in a few months during section 6. You can show the mediator what was already agreed upon. Why would they send something worse to the pilot group just to get voted down a second time? And again what is the chance that the company will wait as long as it would take to go to arbitration?

The short answer to ALL those questions is that the deal that's currently on the table IS a good deal for both parties. You've already acknowledged that yourself a few posts earlier. IT IS the price they feel they can pay and still shop our product out competitively.

Now I will ask YOU a question. WHAT EXACTLY do you feel we should add to the current deal, that you've just acknowledged as probably a good deal, to make it better while at the same time not putting us right back in the uncompetitive boat?

 

[PCL_128]

You can show the mediator what was already agreed upon.

Once you reject a TA, it's no longer "agreed upon."

Why would they send something worse to the pilot group just to get voted down a second time?

You're not listening. They won't be sending anything to the pilot group to get voted down a second time, because they'll be able to stall for 5+ years in Section 6 because you'll have no leverage of a strike. After those 5+ years, you'll end up caving on PBS, probably to terms far less than what you've got in this current PBS TA, because the NMB will make it very clear that you're never getting released as long as you hold out for something better on PBS.

You probably weren't in the industry at the time, but a story from ExpressJet's last contract negotiations may help you understand how this process really works:

Back in 2003, the ExressJet pilots were in Section 6 trying to hammer out a deal. This was before Comair and everyone else took big concessions in bankruptcy, so the old Comair rates were still in effect. So, the ExpressJet pilots wanted to improve upon the Comair contract and "jack up the house." They wanted a mid-seniority Captain to be able to make $100k per year. They got down to almost everything in the contract being finished except for compensation.

What did the NMB say to them about their pay rate demands? This is a direct quote: "Come back to us when you've stopped smoking crack."

Less than a year later, the ExpressJet pilots settled for the pay rates you see in their contract today, which is far below what they were demanding. The moral of the story? You have to play the game, and the NMB makes the rules. What you have in front of you for the PBS TA is the best thing you're going to see, because you're going to get raped in Section 6 if you don't already have a favorable PBS system in place. Don't lose just because you don't know the rules of the game.

 

[Poppa Hodax]

...In fact, it is by far the best PBS letter in the entire airline industry.
[snip]

This is like saying you have the most awesome Yugo in the world. It is still a Yugo.
Again, I haven't spoken to anyone who said that PBS made things better, but a lot said things got worse. Even if the ASA letter is the best in the industry, empirically speaking, PBS still is a bad deal.

 

[buscap]

Ok people!!

Here's one for ya!! Listen up!!! Only gonna type this once!!!

The PBS cat is already out of the bag!!! The turd has already been crapped!!! Genie out of the bottle!!! Can't unscramble eggs...and all that other crap.

And it's all way past the tipping point. We ain't reversing this industry trend. Now we can sit here and fight it...all by our freakin selves...with our high costs and most likely shrinking pot of flying.

Or we can jack the bar up just a little with the best PBS system, contract language and work rules.

You guys need to talk to some folks about the PBS LOA. Not one pilot group out there, regional or mainline, has anything like we are considering. And the reason for that is because most of them got PBS at the point of a spear.

Yeah this ain't great, but we need to take a close look at the opportunity here. This may be our last best chance to control the screwing.

We keep our costs high and I'll bet a brand new pair of mormon long-johns Mr. A will just plain fak us into the trash pile of oblivion.

In no way does that man want us to be the cheapest out there. He is no idiot and knows very much who he is dealing with. But he will do what any sharp businessman would in this situation.

He's got two airlines with very different operational ledgers. Do the math people!! Besides, I believe if approved, the LOA will result in the Flightline system migrating over to the Skywest side, which will raise their costs slightly, much to our benefit.

Read this again. And I'm not nearly as well informed as these other guys.

 

[OCP]

This is like saying you have the most awesome Yugo in the world. It is still a Yugo.
Again, I haven't spoken to anyone who said that PBS made things better, but a lot said things got worse. Even if the ASA letter is the best in the industry, empirically speaking, PBS still is a bad deal.

Funny just 2 days ago I was talking to a Delta guy who said he loved it and it gave him so much more flexibility in his schedule. I even went on to tell him some of the items in our LOA and he was impressed.

 

[GeekMaster]

This is like saying you have the most awesome Yugo in the world. It is still a Yugo.
Again, I haven't spoken to anyone who said that PBS made things better, but a lot said things got worse. Even if the ASA letter is the best in the industry, empirically speaking, PBS still is a bad deal.

Fine....you wanna use that comparison.....right now we're manufacturing Edsels. While we might like them but NO ONE else in the car buying world wants to buy them; not Delta, not United, Not U.S. Air.


Euphemisms aside, THIS IS PBS. Either IT or the eventual death of our airline is coming our way. It's up to us to choose. The wise men among us will choose that which best benefits us. Given the chance to choose the "best" PBS LOA and system out there (Yugo) vs. the eventual death of my Airline (Edsel), I choose the PBS.

I hope others with a more level head agree.

 

[79%N1]

PCL is "schooling" you aircombat. Please pay attention and take a lesson. You sound clueless and juvenille! People here are filling all of your arguments with holes, but you are stubbornly clinging to your position. You opinion is yours, but your arguements make no sense and are based on conjecture, not facts.

 

[aircombat]

PCL is "schooling" you aircombat. Please pay attention and take a lesson. You sound clueless and juvenille! People here are filling all of your arguments with holes, but you are stubbornly clinging to your position. You opinion is yours, but your arguements make no sense and are based on conjecture, not facts.

Whatever. The only thing the union has done is make themselves sound week and hopeless. To say they can’t use PBS to their advantage in section 6 really makes me lose all faith in them. If they are shooting holes in everything I say why can’t they answer the question I have about their statement regarding the company not saving a dime until we grow. In actuality they can and will save money when we shrink through attrition to profitability.

 

[JoeMerchant]

Whatever. The only thing the union has done is make themselves sound week and hopeless. To say they can’t use PBS to their advantage in section 6 really makes me lose all faith in them. If they are shooting holes in everything I say why can’t they answer the question I have about their statement regarding the company not saving a dime until we grow. In actuality they can and will save money when we shrink through attrition to profitability.

You haven't answered the question as to where the "attrition" is going to come from....How are we going to see much attrition in this environment?

 

[Jack-O-Lantern]

Knock Knock Knock, hello. anybody there?

 

[Poppa Hodax]

....Either IT or the eventual death of our airline is coming our way.
[snip]

I am having a little trouble accepting your supposition that the only possible outcome of not accepting this (and only this) PBS offer is the inevitable, inescapable end of ASA.

 

[GeekMaster]

I am having a little trouble accepting your supposition that the only possible outcome of not accepting this (and only this) PBS offer is the inevitable, inescapable end of ASA.

Accepting "this" offer is wiser because it will be the best one that crosses our table. If we reject it, I suppose that before we let ourselves die, we will accept another offer in the future. It just won't be as good. Even if it's the exact same offer, we will have lost the opportunities that go other directions in the mean time.

 

[asayankee]

You haven't answered the question as to where the "attrition" is going to come from....How are we going to see much attrition in this environment?

and nobody has answered the question of where the growth will be from!!!

 

[Poppa Hodax]

...Either IT or the eventual death of our airline is coming our way. It's up to us to choose.
[snip]

The future is (tautologically) unknown. While I acknowledge that the end of the airline is a possibility, I don't agree that it is even a likely probability. Please PM me if you have some means of knowing otherwise: I have a couple of Super Bowl and lottery questions.

I intend to read the LOA with regard to what the agreement will definitely do to our status quo, not what it might do to our future:
- Does it improve the quality of the scheduling?
- Does it favor only the senior?
- Do we make more money?
- Can I turn one week of vacation into three?
- Any improvements for the Reserves, or are they forgotten again?
Concomitantly, I will pay particular regard to the language. Too many "shoulds" and "will make an efforts", and not enough "wills" and "shalls" is a deal breaker.

 

[aircombat]

and nobody has answered the question of where the growth will be from!!!

Exactly. So I’m not the only one. If you guys haven’t noticed there is no growth right now, just stagnation. There has been more attrition here in the past few years then growth. And that trend will just increase over the next 5 years.

 

[LazyLightnin']

5 Years seems a little drastic.

Plus, there's a couple of positive rumors regarding expansion. Albeit they're rumors and the Vietnam one excluded.

You really think Inc. is not actively pursuing growth?

 

[aircombat]

Accepting "this" offer is wiser because it will be the best one that crosses our table. If we reject it, I suppose that before we let ourselves die, we will accept another offer in the future. It just won't be as good. Even if it's the exact same offer, we will have lost the opportunities that go other directions in the mean time.

I still haven’t gotten a good answer why this will be the best offer and we will get garbage later? The best answer that I have gotten is. “You don’t understand section 6 negotiations“. That’s not an answer. That’s just an intimidation tactic. You guys like to fall for those just as fast as the smoke and mirrors tactics.
I don’t even know why I bother when you guys openly say you don’t care about what this might do to the future just what will you get out of it right now. Again I’m sure that is what the people said when they voted your high paying job away by relaxing scope. I hope you all enjoy the 5+ years of section 6 you are setting yourselves up for nicely.

 

[aircombat]

5 Years seems a little drastic.

Plus, there's a couple of positive rumors regarding expansion. Albeit they're rumors and the Vietnam one excluded.

You really think Inc. is not actively pursuing growth?

I say these things only from past experiences, not just because I like to make things up. Why not 5 years that’s how long the last contract took. PBS was supposed to be our leverage this time. Now Obama is going to be our leverage?
Yes I do think Inc is seeking growth and what makes you think that the growth won’t go to Skywest. Because you saved them a fraction of a percent? We are still going to be more expensive. Furthermore I worked at a regional that was purchased by another. They were shrunk until they were more manageable and then partially stapled. Our lists will merge eventually. What are we waiting for. Skywest to shrink us and get a Union. There goes our leverage for that one as well.