Lear,
I disagree. I removed employee numbers & last names, but used first names & seniority # where applicable to prove my point. Sorry if it’s a bit confusing though you should be able to follow my logic. I do not mean this post derogatory at all; it is just an observation
From SL10: Pilot totals
SWA 5863
AT 1704 (1737 are in the Final Transition Bid [FTB], so I’ll give you the higher #)
2012NH 132 (from today's SWA list)
Total: 7732
7732/2 = 3866 “50% Pilot” – that is, 50% of system seniority.
Projecting SL10 MSL list to 1/15: (assuming all attrition is replaced with new hires)
#3866 is former SWA Eric
The next senior former AT is Doug (#3864), who happened to bid 717 CA in the FTB
From SL10, Doug was #339 on the former AT MSL; additionally, he was the 248th most junior 717 CA ≤50% SL10 MSL line.
91 AT guys senior to Doug bid 737 FO, 1 of these guys will retire before 1/15
20 AT 717 Captains senior to Doug will retire before 1/15
So on 1/15:
Again, 20 AT 717 Captains senior to Doug already retired.
The vacancies age-65 produce will most likely be absorbed as the 717s are transitioned; thereby, delaying the more junior from popping out the bottom (albeit for only a short period of time, maybe a bid period at most).
Considering the senior AT 717 Captains who will retire: 248-20 = 228 AT CA “should” be able to hold Captain, that is ≤50% system seniority list.
However,
36 * 6 = 216 guys will still hold CA (as per the SWA/DAL transition schedule)
228 – 216 = 12 displaced AT Captains who are ≤50% of the seniority list on 1/15 (again, these are the guys who BID 717CA).
Now if we consider the senior (≤50%) AT pilots who bid 737 FO:
91 – 1 (retiree) = 90, add these with the 12 bumped guys, 102 guys ≤50% system seniority & NOT holding a captain seat (however, again 90 of these guys BID 737 FO for whatever reason, and will most likely be bidding back to the left seat over the next 4 classes or so). So out of 318 former senior (≤50%) AT pilots, 216 are still in their seat.
Now lets compare if all 717s were to stay and look at our seniority list on 1/15:
We would have 509 former AT B717 Captains, with the most junior guy, David being #784 on the former AT list. David is #5706 on the MSL and is just junior to Jon #5705 on the SWA side. Jon is 1,398 "SWA" guys junior to Eric (the “50% [SWA] guy” listed above), and 1,840 total pilots junior Eric. Another way to view this,
we'd have 261 guys holding Captain out of seniority order (albeit probably for a short period of time as the more senior bid any B717 vacancies).
So by subleasing all but 36 * B717
bumps 12 former AT B717 Captains out of their 50% seat VERSUS having 261 former AT guys holding captain seat out of seniority with the most junior ahead of close to 1,400 "former" SWA FOs.
(BTW, 261 is my least favorite #

uke

Hence my statement that the 717 sublease “normalizes” the master seniority list (wrt to holding a "bid" Captain seat & the SL10 MSL).
Fly safe,
-C
PS If we do NOT consider the 132 HNs, the list is smaller and fewer guys are below the 50% line. Actually, this would result in 16 fewer AT pilots below the 50% line, essentially zeroing out ALL bumped B717CA. Actually, since none of these 16 guys will have retired by 1/15,
we'd HAVE a handful of guys holding CA seat out of system seniority versus 261.