New AT to SWA training plan out

[funnyman12]

Why did SW hire 140 or so guys earlier this year? Block hours from last summer were down, yet they hired more pilots. Heck more guys below all of us is better, just never made much sense to me.

 

[texman]

Why did SW hire 140 or so guys earlier this year? Block hours from last summer were down, yet they hired more pilots. Heck more guys below all of us is better, just never made much sense to me.

It doesn't make sense to me either. Supposedly it was for the increase in vacation weeks by the pilot group becoming more SR. We have 150 plus retirements for 2013. No hiring for the year though. I heard it was because you guys are overstaffed per our model. So they need to offset the manning using our retirements. If true, then the SL10 upgrade projections were a lie.

 

[Ty Webb]

"Could be wrong"

Lear, no way...as you said in another thread you are never wrong...

If you can't counter a statement you don't like, insult the messenger. . . .

Genius . . . . pure genius! :laugh:

 

[Lear70]

It doesn't make sense to me either. Supposedly it was for the increase in vacation weeks by the pilot group becoming more SR. We have 150 plus retirements for 2013. No hiring for the year though. I heard it was because you guys are overstaffed per our model. So they need to offset the manning using our retirements. If true, then the SL10 upgrade projections were a lie.

We weren't overstaffed if we kept the 717's by more than 100 people, which could easily have been absorbed within our own 717 ranks just like it is now (low line values, high reserve coverage).

We were only overstaffed by about 50 or so on the 737 compared to your staffing ratio, which was MORE than offset by the retirements just in the first half of next year.

However, the number of 717's being sub-leased to Delta isn't offset on a purely hull-for hull basis by the retained 737 Classics plus deliveries. As a result, bringing over all our people is going to overstaff SWA by 450-500 people which, as i mentioned earlier, I agree with you that retirements are going to be used instead of growth to even out that number over the next 4-5 years.

That said, I disagree with you that it makes the SL10 upgrade numbers a lie.

The SL10 upgrade numbers were based on all our 737's coming across. They still are, and because our 737 CA's can't stay CA's and will be F/O's, your senior F/O's are still going to upgrade into those airplanes in the same staffing rate that they were promised in SL10.

Additionally, if nothing is done to offset the unplanned loss of our 717 Captain slots, you will also now be retaining the 737 Classics, which will yield you even MORE Captain seats.

With the Classics staying, you have to keep CA in those seats. With our 737's coming, you have to put CA's in those seats. You're going to get more upgrades than SL10 originally promised. That's just simple math of how many 737's are on property at the end of 12/31/2014.

Our overstaffing being brought over isn't going to come at the expense of CA seats, it's going to come at the expense of the F/O's, since we're ALL coming over as F/O's now. What is to be determined is whether or not it is considered a displacement for our people who were awarded 717 SWA TBD.

So basically your senior CA's were untouched with all this. Your mid-level
CA's won't feel it until after 2015 at which time enough people senior to them will have retired and they basically won't see any difference to what they were expecting to see in terms of seniority progression pre-acquisition. Your Junior CA's BEFORE the announcement get a seniority bump as all the senior F/O's there upgrade earlier than planned.

Your senior F/O's who upgrade through this will upgrade sooner and make an extra $250-500k than they expected, but will stay on reserve until basically 2020 in all likelihood as our senior CA's upgrade ahead of them after the 1/1/15 fence drop.

Your mid-level F/O's will stay about the same as your previously-senior F/O's upgrade, BUT our CA's come in above your previous-mid-level F/O's on each bases' seniority list and take the place of your senior F/O's.

Your junior F/O's will get bounced around from base to base as our CA's and senior F/O's come in above them and the normal monthly base size flexes up and down.

Your new-hire F/O's mixed with our mid-level, junior, and new-hire F/O's will form a very large reserve "plug" on the bottom for about a decade.

We've flow-charted the seniority progression out for the combined master seniority list and how it moves for the next 20 years and the above is, on a macro scale, about as accurate as it gets.

 

[roughneck]

What is to be determined is whether or not it is considered a displacement for our people who were awarded 717 SWA TBD.

A 717 displacement can't occur on the SWA side because we don't have a 717 to be displaced from. That displacement will occur on the AT side. The SWAPA contract doesn't apply to the AirTran side of the partition.

 

[madjack]

"If you can't counter a statement you don't like, insult the messenger. . . .

Genius . . . . pure genius! :laugh: "

Pot meet kettle

 

[madjack]

"Early already owes me $100 and Beisheim owes me a bottle of Johnny Walker Blue, but neither of them are anywhere to be found. "

Lear is the smartest guy in the room, just ask him!

 

[texman]

We weren't overstaffed if we kept the 717's by more than 100 people, which could easily have been absorbed within our own 717 ranks just like it is now (low line values, high reserve coverage).

We were only overstaffed by about 50 or so on the 737 compared to your staffing ratio, which was MORE than offset by the retirements just in the first half of next year.

However, the number of 717's being sub-leased to Delta isn't offset on a purely hull-for hull basis by the retained 737 Classics plus deliveries. As a result, bringing over all our people is going to overstaff SWA by 450-500 people which, as i mentioned earlier, I agree with you that retirements are going to be used instead of growth to even out that number over the next 4-5 years.

That said, I disagree with you that it makes the SL10 upgrade numbers a lie.

The SL10 upgrade numbers were based on all our 737's coming across. They still are, and because our 737 CA's can't stay CA's and will be F/O's, your senior F/O's are still going to upgrade into those airplanes in the same staffing rate that they were promised in SL10.

Additionally, if nothing is done to offset the unplanned loss of our 717 Captain slots, you will also now be retaining the 737 Classics, which will yield you even MORE Captain seats.

With the Classics staying, you have to keep CA in those seats. With our 737's coming, you have to put CA's in those seats. You're going to get more upgrades than SL10 originally promised. That's just simple math of how many 737's are on property at the end of 12/31/2014.

Our overstaffing being brought over isn't going to come at the expense of CA seats, it's going to come at the expense of the F/O's, since we're ALL coming over as F/O's now. What is to be determined is whether or not it is considered a displacement for our people who were awarded 717 SWA TBD.

So basically your senior CA's were untouched with all this. Your mid-level
CA's won't feel it until after 2015 at which time enough people senior to them will have retired and they basically won't see any difference to what they were expecting to see in terms of seniority progression pre-acquisition. Your Junior CA's BEFORE the announcement get a seniority bump as all the senior F/O's there upgrade earlier than planned.

Your senior F/O's who upgrade through this will upgrade sooner and make an extra $250-500k than they expected, but will stay on reserve until basically 2020 in all likelihood as our senior CA's upgrade ahead of them after the 1/1/15 fence drop.

Your mid-level F/O's will stay about the same as your previously-senior F/O's upgrade, BUT our CA's come in above your previous-mid-level F/O's on each bases' seniority list and take the place of your senior F/O's.

Your junior F/O's will get bounced around from base to base as our CA's and senior F/O's come in above them and the normal monthly base size flexes up and down.

Your new-hire F/O's mixed with our mid-level, junior, and new-hire F/O's will form a very large reserve "plug" on the bottom for about a decade.

We've flow-charted the seniority progression out for the combined master seniority list and how it moves for the next 20 years and the above is, on a macro scale, about as accurate as it gets.

So are you saying being overstaffed by 400-500 pilots, is due to less airframes on property after 2015? Thus the retirements will help ease the staffing levels? If we shrink this does mean the SL10 is bunk.

 

[Lear70]

So are you saying being overstaffed by 400-500 pilots, is due to less airframes on property after 2015? Thus the retirements will help ease the staffing levels? If we shrink this does mean the SL10 is bunk.

No.

The vast majority of SL10 was designed simply to incorporate another pilot group with regard to seniority, training, no probation, etc, as well as give you our 737 Captain seats. It wasn't designed to dictate staffing levels.

Yes, in 2015, it appears that the combined total number of airframes on property between both airlines will be LESS than it is now (not including the 717's that will finish transitioning that year). This is due to more 717's being assigned to Delta than there are Classics that were going to be retired and now will be retained plus deliveries of new aircraft including the ones that were deferred.

There will still be the same number of net CA seats required for our incoming 737's, which is what you were projecting to gain from SL10. None of those 737's are going anywhere else.

The extra Captain seats you will gain is that you're not retiring the Classics for now, so instead of our 717's coming over with their CA's in their seats, you keep over 50 airplanes that were supposed to go away, and you keep those CA seats too, while our CA's have to all go back to F/O.

The overstaffing problem will all be on the F/O end, with attrition being used to balance that out. A little under 200 per year the next few years, with your F/O's STILL continuing to get those CA seats, bypassing our former CA's, until 1/1/15, then our guys start upgrading instead.

Eventually that will even out the CA/FO staffing ratios, and hiring will start again, my best guess 2016-2017...??? Unless they pull the lever on growth, then all bets are off.

 

[Lear70]

"Early already owes me $100 and Beisheim owes me a bottle of Johnny Walker Blue, but neither of them are anywhere to be found. "

Lear is the smartest guy in the room, just ask him!

Hey, money talks... Never said I was right all the time, contrary to your mud-slinging claim, but the fact that those two owe me money over my predictions isn't changing.

 

[FlyinGuy]

The extra Captain seats you will gain is that you're not retiring the Classics for now, so instead of our 717's coming over with their CA's in their seats, you keep over 50 airplanes that were supposed to go away, and you keep those CA seats too, while our CA's have to all go back to F/O.

So we are gaining captain seats by not retiring the classics? Let me see if I have your logic straight. SWA decides it wants to maintain the fleet type that they have had for about 40 years (except for the 3 little pigs). They dump the 717 because of this fact and now us keeping the airplanes that we have had all along is our net gain?

 

[texman]

No.

The vast majority of SL10 was designed simply to incorporate another pilot group with regard to seniority, training, no probation, etc, as well as give you our 737 Captain seats. It wasn't designed to dictate staffing levels.

Yes, in 2015, it appears that the combined total number of airframes on property between both airlines will be LESS than it is now (not including the 717's that will finish transitioning that year). This is due to more 717's being assigned to Delta than there are Classics that were going to be retired and now will be retained plus deliveries of new aircraft including the ones that were deferred.

There will still be the same number of net CA seats required for our incoming 737's, which is what you were projecting to gain from SL10. None of those 737's are going anywhere else.

The extra Captain seats you will gain is that you're not retiring the Classics for now, so instead of our 717's coming over with their CA's in their seats, you keep over 50 airplanes that were supposed to go away, and you keep those CA seats too, while our CA's have to all go back to F/O.

The overstaffing problem will all be on the F/O end, with attrition being used to balance that out. A little under 200 per year the next few years, with your F/O's STILL continuing to get those CA seats, bypassing our former CA's, until 1/1/15, then our guys start upgrading instead.

Eventually that will even out the CA/FO staffing ratios, and hiring will start again, my best guess 2016-2017...??? Unless they pull the lever on growth, then all bets are off.

So what your saying is about 40+ net loss of airframes? Show me numbers. They way I see it is a flat fleet and attrition from retirements, or we could only hope. If this is the case we move up the list. We shrink=less capt seats which means upgrade projections per SL 10 out the door. If this happens we all got played!

 

[Lear70]

So what your saying is about 40+ net loss of airframes? Show me numbers. They way I see it is a flat fleet and attrition from retirements, or we could only hope. If this is the case we move up the list. We shrink=less capt seats which means upgrade projections per SL 10 out the door. If this happens we all got played!

No, because a net loss of hulls only affect OUR CA seats, at least in the short-term, because the hull losses are all in the 717 and you're keeping airplanes (classics) you weren't previously going to keep.

Previously, the plan was to replace the Classics with our 717's and additional -700 and -800 deliveries, so your total CA growth when you signed SL10 was ONLY for our 44 737's that were coming over, a net GAIN of approximately 264 CA upgrades for SWA pilots that you weren't expecting before SWA acquired AAI, but it came with a faster retirement schedule of the Classics, replaced with the 717, which limited your CA seat expectations to those 44 737's of ours.

Now that the Classics aren't going away, you have an unexpected increase in yearly CA spots. You aren't losing classics AND you're still gaining new deliveries AND you got our 737 CA seats.

In the short-term, at least until the Classics DO start going away, that's a net gain of CA seats for SWA pilots, even with the 717 going away, because ALL the upgrades are coming to you, and ALL our CA's are going back to F/O, rather than having a bunch of us sitting in 717's that were replacing Classics.

In short, with the original deal, you got 44 airplane's worth of CA seats but after that, with our CA's in the 717's and the Classics being retired, there weren't more CA seats for OSW for several years. Now you get continued slow upgrades after the initial ones you gain from our 737's coming over... that is, until the Classics start going away again.

Where the total fleet reduction hurts is later down the road, especially after 1/1/15, and especially when the Classics start going away without a 717 to act as a buffer for our CA's to take while your guys could upgrade into new 737's. Instead, our CA's will now start taking all CA slots for a long time after 1/1/15, your Classics will start going away, and the list will stagnate for a good, long while.

All you have to do is take the seniority list projections and pattern it out, year by year, taking each 717 out as it goes away, each Classic out as it goes away, and plugging in the planned delivery schedule of new airplanes and known attrition.

It's not pretty. Not for a long while, unless they grow at 15% ROIC as advertised. For now, you're going to get your upgrades (and more) promised in SL10. All 44 aircraft worth, in addition to known attrition.

So we are gaining captain seats by not retiring the classics? Let me see if I have your logic straight. SWA decides it wants to maintain the fleet type that they have had for about 40 years (except for the 3 little pigs). They dump the 717 because of this fact and now us keeping the airplanes that we have had all along is our net gain?

See above. If you hadn't retained your classics, you'd be getting rid of them and replacing them with 717's with OUR CA's in those seats, plus some deliveries of -700's and -800's, equals roughly flat (if not a slight decrease) in needed SWA CA seats on the 737 under the SL10 plan after you got a large number of upgrades from our 44 737's we brought with us.

Now, by retaining the Classics, PLUS getting new deliveries, yes, it's a net gain in the total number of CA seats now versus what you would have had IF the 717 had been retained and the Classics had gone away on-schedule.

It's not complex math.

 

[redflyer65]

Not trying to nit-pick Lear, but we always have Classics going away. We are constantly retiring some 300 or 500. Just look at the aircraft mx schedule in Swalife. There is always a classic in the DAL hanger getting prepared for the desert. Heck, you even see them when you flow thru there. A 300 sitting outside the hanger with 'Southwest' removed from the tail. We finally started losing some of the 500s, I think 5 are now gone for good.

I'm guessing you mean the original plan to get rid of them sooner rather than later. That plan was changed a long, long time ago wasn't it? Still a flat fleet no matter how you slice it.

 

[scoreboardII]

No, because a net loss of hulls only affect OUR CA seats, at least in the short-term, because the hull losses are all in the 717 and you're keeping airplanes (classics) you weren't previously going to keep.

Previously, the plan was to replace the Classics with our 717's and additional -700 and -800 deliveries, so your total CA growth when you signed SL10 was ONLY for our 44 737's that were coming over, a net GAIN of approximately 264 CA upgrades for SWA pilots that you weren't expecting before SWA acquired AAI, but it came with a faster retirement schedule of the Classics, replaced with the 717, which limited your CA seat expectations to those 44 737's of ours.

Now that the Classics aren't going away, you have an unexpected increase in yearly CA spots. You aren't losing classics AND you're still gaining new deliveries AND you got our 737 CA seats.

In the short-term, at least until the Classics DO start going away, that's a net gain of CA seats for SWA pilots, even with the 717 going away, because ALL the upgrades are coming to you, and ALL our CA's are going back to F/O, rather than having a bunch of us sitting in 717's that were replacing Classics.

In short, with the original deal, you got 44 airplane's worth of CA seats but after that, with our CA's in the 717's and the Classics being retired, there weren't more CA seats for OSW for several years. Now you get continued slow upgrades after the initial ones you gain from our 737's coming over... that is, until the Classics start going away again.

Where the total fleet reduction hurts is later down the road, especially after 1/1/15, and especially when the Classics start going away without a 717 to act as a buffer for our CA's to take while your guys could upgrade into new 737's. Instead, our CA's will now start taking all CA slots for a long time after 1/1/15, your Classics will start going away, and the list will stagnate for a good, long while.

All you have to do is take the seniority list projections and pattern it out, year by year, taking each 717 out as it goes away, each Classic out as it goes away, and plugging in the planned delivery schedule of new airplanes and known attrition.

It's not pretty. Not for a long while, unless they grow at 15% ROIC as advertised. For now, you're going to get your upgrades (and more) promised in SL10. All 44 aircraft worth, in addition to known attrition.


See above. If you hadn't retained your classics, you'd be getting rid of them and replacing them with 717's with OUR CA's in those seats, plus some deliveries of -700's and -800's, equals roughly flat (if not a slight decrease) in needed SWA CA seats on the 737 under the SL10 plan after you got a large number of upgrades from our 44 737's we brought with us.

Now, by retaining the Classics, PLUS getting new deliveries, yes, it's a net gain in the total number of CA seats now versus what you would have had IF the 717 had been retained and the Classics had gone away on-schedule.

It's not complex math.

Lear, one pilot to another, this diatribe you make is a nice spin on a snapshot during one day, at one specific moment in time at the place known as SWA. All of your prognostications fail the light of day two. This is a business which changes its mind based on one thing, money. That's how they have stayed in business 40 plus.
And is why the complaint you guys have that the 717 going away is specious at best.

There is not one arbiter who will risk his future and saddle a company with costs that are not directly in black and white.

 

[humveedriver]

Lear, one pilot to another, this diatribe you make is a nice spin on a snapshot during one day, at one specific moment in time at the place known as SWA. All of your prognostications fail the light of day two. This is a business which changes its mind based on one thing, money. That's how they have stayed in business 40 plus.
And is why the complaint you guys have that the 717 going away is specious at best.

There is not one arbiter who will risk his future and saddle a company with costs that are not directly in black and white.

Couldn't you apply that logic to almost anything in life, as virtually everything changes over time. Some things faster than others. My point is that normaly when you change your mind about something, there is a consequence involved with that change. This argument will always be one side insisting that one group of pilots is just lucky to be here and another group saying we brought value to table that should be recognized. We will see if over time either group changes their opinion of the other.

 

[texman]

Lear,

I see your point. My main thing is we don't shrink. We have orders to help replace the classics, and yes it is not just the 50+ AT had on order. I was told in 2010 the Classics can fly till 2024. Only 80 plus had to go right away. I understand your (AT) captain seat loss per the 717 leaving. It's not just about the captain seat, but how many you have below you.

 

[texman]

Couldn't you apply that logic to almost anything in life, as virtually everything changes over time. Some things faster than others. My point is that normaly when you change your mind about something, there is a consequence involved with that change. This argument will always be one side insisting that one group of pilots is just lucky to be here and another group saying we brought value to table that should be recognized. We will see if over time either group changes their opinion of the other.

You know and I know, both companies brought value to the table.

 

[Whataburger]

I have been at SWA for a while now. The ONLY thing that has been constant is change. We always try to adapt to our environment. No plans are ever solid around here and everything is constantly revised. If you look close enough, all of our plans here are written in pencil so they can be erased or altered. Only the ones best for the company survive.

 

[General Lee]

Lear, one pilot to another, this diatribe you make is a nice spin on a snapshot during one day, at one specific moment in time at the place known as SWA. All of your prognostications fail the light of day two. This is a business which changes its mind based on one thing, money. That's how they have stayed in business 40 plus.
And is why the complaint you guys have that the 717 going away is specious at best.

There is not one arbiter who will risk his future and saddle a company with costs that are not directly in black and white.

Did you see what arbiter Richard Bloch awarded the Pinnacle/Colgan/Mesaba guys? Huge training costs were involved when all of those guys were spread out during that SLI. That was an interesting arbitrated award, but Pinnacle followed it, and it hurt them. Arbitration is a gamble, no doubt.


Bye Bye---General Lee