New AT to SWA training plan out

[Citrusflyer]

Only 166 pilots are going over the fence in the first half of 2013. That'll leave 1400+ pilots on the AT side in the summer of 2013. The 'math-wiz' in me says that'll leave almost 80 pilots per month to train to get to the magic #0 on the Airtran side by the end of 2014.

Considering the glacial pace of movement now, and in the past, this doesn't bode well for this thing wrapping up in time.

 

[Lear70]

Only 166 pilots are going over the fence in the first half of 2013. That'll leave 1400+ pilots on the AT side in the summer of 2013. The 'math-wiz' in me says that'll leave almost 80 pilots per month to train to get to the magic #0 on the Airtran side by the end of 2014.

Considering the glacial pace of movement now, and in the past, this doesn't bode well for this thing wrapping up in time.

I've been saying that for a while...

It's not QUITE 1,400 pilots. There's almost 100 in an inactive status that will transfer over inactive, bringing the number to transition to 1650 or so. You have almost 250 across the partition by the end of this year, and another 166 is 416 by June. If they do 25 per month like they have been, that will be 566 by the end of next year, leaving just under 1,100 pilots to go over in one year which is "challenging" to say the least.

So they either somehow get almost 100 people through class per month in 2014, OR they:

A. Violate the 1/1/15 date,
B. Get relief from SWAPA for the 450 +/- 717 pilots that need to operate the 717 until Delta finishes taking them towards 3rd quarter 2015,
C. Get approval from the FAA for a "short course" FOM equivalency, slap a sticker on the planes, and bring everyone over to SWA via training by Memo which is what Delta/NWA basically did, or
D. Park the planes and send the pilots home WITH PAY for anywhere from a few months to half a year. Can't furlough them per the SIA, so you'd have to pay them.

Not seeing many other options and not seeing a way to wrap it up at the glacial pace it's moving.

 

[Citrusflyer]

Lear,

Did I read correctly - the guys who bid the 717 are to (as of now) go through 717 training before they can bid over to SWA?

 

[texman]

Lear I can see plan B or C happening.

 

[Lear70]

Lear,

Did I read correctly - the guys who bid the 717 are to (as of now) go through 717 training before they can bid over to SWA?

Yes, and that's how the SIA has to be done unless we give them relief, which I understand they asked for, and we asked to take that money that saves and apply it to other things (such as CA pay protection) and they declined. They basically wanted it for free and we said No.

So they will double and triple train people. Cost estimate around $35 Mil last I heard. Again I'm not involved directly in that part anymore, but after the 717 debacle I don't see our MEC giving anything for free anymore. Just my impression.

 

[Lear70]

Lear I can see plan B or C happening.

Yeah that's my guess too. Nothing to do but sit back and see how it unfolds. :beer:

 

[texman]

While B and C may work. It won't be free on our end either.

 

[RIDETHELIGHTING]

Hey Lear since the Trn schedule only goes out for 6 months. Do you think there will be more classes in the last 6 months? If so guess on how many. Thks.

 

[Lear70]

Hey Lear since the Trn schedule only goes out for 6 months. Do you think there will be more classes in the last 6 months? If so guess on how many. Thks.

My two cents, which is probably worth about half that amount (if that), is that they start a slow-and-steady draw-down of ATL 717 pilots about 24 per month and remain constant in that for the last 6 months of 2013, similar to what you see in May and June.

I also believe you will see some MCO 717 pilots in Nov/Dec 2013 /Jan 14 with the final MCO base closure at the end of 1st quarter 2014, and resuming 737 pilot transitions end 1st Qtr / beginning 2nd Qtr 2014.

At some point they're going to have to increase the pace of training to get all of us across or we're going to find ourselves flying 40 hours block a month with 20+ days off and 50% of the group on reserve. The big question is how overstaffed are they going to let us get before they decide to increase the training flow...

 

[RIDETHELIGHTING]

So the rest of the year only 717. And no more 737 trasition?