New AT to SWA training plan out

[Citrusflyer]

Only 166 pilots are going over the fence in the first half of 2013. That'll leave 1400+ pilots on the AT side in the summer of 2013. The 'math-wiz' in me says that'll leave almost 80 pilots per month to train to get to the magic #0 on the Airtran side by the end of 2014.

Considering the glacial pace of movement now, and in the past, this doesn't bode well for this thing wrapping up in time.

 

[Lear70]

Only 166 pilots are going over the fence in the first half of 2013. That'll leave 1400+ pilots on the AT side in the summer of 2013. The 'math-wiz' in me says that'll leave almost 80 pilots per month to train to get to the magic #0 on the Airtran side by the end of 2014.

Considering the glacial pace of movement now, and in the past, this doesn't bode well for this thing wrapping up in time.

I've been saying that for a while...

It's not QUITE 1,400 pilots. There's almost 100 in an inactive status that will transfer over inactive, bringing the number to transition to 1650 or so. You have almost 250 across the partition by the end of this year, and another 166 is 416 by June. If they do 25 per month like they have been, that will be 566 by the end of next year, leaving just under 1,100 pilots to go over in one year which is "challenging" to say the least.

So they either somehow get almost 100 people through class per month in 2014, OR they:

A. Violate the 1/1/15 date,
B. Get relief from SWAPA for the 450 +/- 717 pilots that need to operate the 717 until Delta finishes taking them towards 3rd quarter 2015,
C. Get approval from the FAA for a "short course" FOM equivalency, slap a sticker on the planes, and bring everyone over to SWA via training by Memo which is what Delta/NWA basically did, or
D. Park the planes and send the pilots home WITH PAY for anywhere from a few months to half a year. Can't furlough them per the SIA, so you'd have to pay them.

Not seeing many other options and not seeing a way to wrap it up at the glacial pace it's moving.

 

[Citrusflyer]

Lear,

Did I read correctly - the guys who bid the 717 are to (as of now) go through 717 training before they can bid over to SWA?

 

[texman]

Lear I can see plan B or C happening.

 

[Lear70]

Lear,

Did I read correctly - the guys who bid the 717 are to (as of now) go through 717 training before they can bid over to SWA?

Yes, and that's how the SIA has to be done unless we give them relief, which I understand they asked for, and we asked to take that money that saves and apply it to other things (such as CA pay protection) and they declined. They basically wanted it for free and we said No.

So they will double and triple train people. Cost estimate around $35 Mil last I heard. Again I'm not involved directly in that part anymore, but after the 717 debacle I don't see our MEC giving anything for free anymore. Just my impression.

 

[Lear70]

Lear I can see plan B or C happening.

Yeah that's my guess too. Nothing to do but sit back and see how it unfolds. :beer:

 

[texman]

While B and C may work. It won't be free on our end either.

 

[RIDETHELIGHTING]

Hey Lear since the Trn schedule only goes out for 6 months. Do you think there will be more classes in the last 6 months? If so guess on how many. Thks.

 

[Lear70]

Hey Lear since the Trn schedule only goes out for 6 months. Do you think there will be more classes in the last 6 months? If so guess on how many. Thks.

My two cents, which is probably worth about half that amount (if that), is that they start a slow-and-steady draw-down of ATL 717 pilots about 24 per month and remain constant in that for the last 6 months of 2013, similar to what you see in May and June.

I also believe you will see some MCO 717 pilots in Nov/Dec 2013 /Jan 14 with the final MCO base closure at the end of 1st quarter 2014, and resuming 737 pilot transitions end 1st Qtr / beginning 2nd Qtr 2014.

At some point they're going to have to increase the pace of training to get all of us across or we're going to find ourselves flying 40 hours block a month with 20+ days off and 50% of the group on reserve. The big question is how overstaffed are they going to let us get before they decide to increase the training flow...

 

[RIDETHELIGHTING]

So the rest of the year only 717. And no more 737 trasition?

 

[Lear70]

So the rest of the year only 717. And no more 737 trasition?

It's just a guess, but an educated one.

With the elimination of our SJU routes, they really only need those planes and pilots over. Other than that, there's no reason to take extra 737 pilots and, in truth, the 717 will be going away at a faster clip than just 24 people per month, more like 36 to keep the staffing balance we have now.

As such, I just don't see very many (if any) 737 pilot transitions after Aug/Sep when they finish drawing down MCO.

Again, just an educated guess.

 

[BR715]

Are the 717 Capts that bid to stay on the 717 eligible to bid for any of those 737 FO spots? Or does only the guys that bid 737 FO get to bid to go over. I'm asking for myself if you haven't figured it out.

 

[Citrusflyer]

Are the 717 Capts that bid to stay on the 717 eligible to bid for any of those 737 FO spots? Or does only the guys that bid 737 FO get to bid to go over. I'm asking for myself if you haven't figured it out.

Everything I've been told is that the only one's going over are those who bid 737 FO. Anyone who bid the 717 currently have an invalid bid - and no seat at SWA (until the union issues get solved).

 

[Lear70]

Everything I've been told is that the only one's going over are those who bid 737 FO. Anyone who bid the 717 currently have an invalid bid - and no seat at SWA (until the union issues get solved).

Not *exactly* correct.

They can't go over until all the pilots who were awarded SWA 737 FO either go over or bypass so the out-of-seniority moves will continue.

It also triggers displacement language at Southwest because their award is SWA 717 and once they transition into Initial Indoc there and that plane is no longer available, it becomes a displacement to 737 F/O, an issue that is being disputed by SWAPA and that we expect the DR process to answer as well.

If anyone thinks that SWA was planning on the 717 going away, they only have to look at this mess. If SWA really thought they were going to sell the 717 before 1/1/15, they wouldn't have left this $35 Million and growing morass as a possibility in the SIA documents. Their Chief Labor Relations counsel is much too smart for that.

 

[Whataburger]

C And D ain't happening.

 

[fam62c]

Lear I can see plan B or C happening.

Unless SWAPA wants to spend the next 10 years in mediation for their next contract they will allow the flexibility the company asks for when the time comes. If they try to back management into a corner they will end up in the doghouse with the AT pilots.

 

[texman]

Unless SWAPA wants to spend the next 10 years in mediation for their next contract they will allow the flexibility the company asks for when the time comes. If they try to back management into a corner they will end up in the doghouse with the AT pilots.

They like to know cost. 10 years won't happen.

 

[Citrusflyer]

Not *exactly* correct.

They can't go over until all the pilots who were awarded SWA 737 FO either go over or bypass so the out-of-seniority moves will continue.

It's correct - as far as it goes, for all of 2013 - as the 737 FO bidders wont all be over the fence prior to 2014. Then the chaos begins ...

 

[fam62c]

They like to know cost. 10 years won't happen.

They do know the cost, it's your current contractual run-rate continuing on after the amendable date theoretically forever the way the NMB works today.

 

[Lear70]

It's correct - as far as it goes, for all of 2013 - as the 737 FO bidders wont all be over the fence prior to 2014. Then the chaos begins ...

Not exactly.

There are plenty of 717 pilots who bid 737 FO so those guys will be able to go while people senior to the who bid 717 will be bypassed.

When they run out of 717 pilots who bid 737 and they need to pull people across the partition they will. But until then, it's not an invalid bid and they have a way to cross, just can't do it until we go through all the people awarded 737 FO.