2000 seniority guys are probably looking at 2-3 years before they can hod a reserve capt slot and 4 years until a lineholding position. Almost all deliveries going forward are Airbuses, and many current 190 capts will transition to the bus. I roughly figure my numbers because with attrition (their arrogance likely doesn't figure enough, I think attrition will be rampant starting 2014) we plan to hire 250/ year indefinitely starting in 2013 through indefinitely. As for 320 line holdin capt... Let's just say it'll be a while. 5-8 years? for a guy in the 2000-2100 seniority range.
So between 1300 and 2000 equals 700 pilots. Lets say 2/3 want to upgrade. That equals 425 / 7 per plane = 60 aircraft. Really 2-3 year upgrade. Who's lying now. Get off the crack pipe. Oh by the way there are many sen. F.O.'s in LGB, MCO and FLL that don't even equate in the above numbers. 55 aircraft between now and 2016( No lease returns figured in which is likely). Your math is very fuzzy. You can be happy here thats good-but don't mislead. Attrition is a variable that has no value at current. I saw the best of times prior 9/11 that quickley ended. Once again goodluck.