Jet Fuel Prices WILL Be Climbing A LOT, and Soon

[jetflyer]

Squirrel,

It is widely known that OPEC countries are lying and lying hard about their oil reserves. Not a conspiracy just the truth.

Read http://www.yubanet.com/cgi-bin/artman/exec/view.cgi/8/15426

Why reserve numbers are wrong:

http://today.reuters.com/news/newsArticleSearch.aspx?storyID=231520

.Brent rises $2 after Kuwait reserve report
Fri Jan 20, 2006 20:18 PM ET
LONDON, Jan 20 (Reuters) - London Brent crude futures rose $2 on Friday to its highest level since early September after a report that Kuwait's oil reserves are only half those officialy stated.
March Brent <LCOc1> rose $2.01 to $67.24 a barrel after industry newsletter Petroleum Intelligence Weekly (PIW) reported it had seen internal Kuwaiti records showing that Kuwait's reserves were about 48 billion barrels, compared to the officially stated 99 billion barrels.
Ahead of the report, Brent had already gained $1.50 on mounting concern about supply from Iran and Nigeria had already fuelled a rally of $1.50.

Kuwait supposedly had 10% of the world's oil. Now they have 5%! Wait till Saudi Arabia's oil reserve totals are questioned. We'll see more than a $2.00 rise in the price of oil.

I highly recommend reading this article below:
From http://www.yubanet.com/cgi-bin/artman/exec/view.cgi/8/15426 which I consider to be the best description of the PEAK OIL problem:

Refer to the article for the figure they are referencing for this quote:

Before we leave that curve, though, I want to point out that a sudden jump of 300–400 billion barrels of oil in OPEC (the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries) reserves occurs in the late 1980s (see figure 3, left-hand graph, above). But there were no significant discoveries of oil in OPEC countries during that period. What happened instead is that OPEC changed its quota for how much each country could pump on the basis of what it claimed in reserves, and politicians discovered 400 billion barrels of oil without ever drilling a hole in the ground! This helps us to understand how undependable these numbers are for worldwide proven oil reserves.

Like the quote says, the Opec countries changed the method back in the late 1980's for determining how much oil each OPEC country could pump per day and all of the OPEC countries all of a sudden started lying to the world about how much oil they had.

ALL THE OPEC COUNTRIES DON'T HAVE AS MUCH OIL AS THEY CLAIM.

Saudi's Proven Reserves supposedly doubled in the 1980's and they didn't add any new large fields! It was all because of the OPEC quotas. Now 20 years later after pumping close to a 100 Billion barrels they say their proven reserves have not gone down from that doubled figure. They only added ONE significant field to their reserve base: The Hawtah trend which isn't even that large.

Jet

 

[jetflyer]

Secret Squirrel,

For a more in depth look at what is going on in Saudi and OPEC I recommend reading Bush Family friend and adviser to Cheney, Matthew Simmons book:

Twilight in the Desert: The Coming Saudi Oil Shock and the World Economy

From his studies of over 200 Society of Petroleum Engineer Papers published by Saudi Arabia, he came to the conclusion Saudi was close to their Peak Oil.

The book was published last year and it turns out now that his warnings WERE TOO LATE about Saudi Peak Oil. They were already past peak before his book came out.

The longer they can keep up the charade, the higher price they'll get for their oil in the future.

Jet

 

[Secret Squirrel]

And by claiming that their reserves are lower they caused oil prices to rise back up towards $70 a barrel which is where they want to keep them. Sounds more like manipulating the market more than proof that they actually have less oil. Nobody knows for sure how much oil there is. You can not stick a dipstick down in the ground and say, yup, there is less oil. It is impossible to tell for sure. You can not use the results of oil production in Texas as a predictor of how oil fields in the middle east or Russia will play out. Follow the money.

 

[jetflyer]

And I would say it is more likely that the world oil market is tighter controlled than most lay people are lead to believe. It takes a lot of money to start oil exploration/development.

I edited the Post above. Please read it.

Also this is what Matthew Simmons pleads for in his book. Greater openness of how much oil is in the Middle East. He wants verification.

We've been taking them for their word on the most important substance to our economy. This is ridiculous. But it is true.

So when they say they will continue to increase production but last year went from 9.5 to 8.7 mbd linearly people need to start worrying. Especially this is when Geologists running Hubbert Linearizations on Saudi predicted the declines would begin.

Also Saudi production is down from that 8.7 to 8.5mbd this year.

So the Saudi declines continue.

We'll have to watch them closely, but it looks like as Matthew Simmons says the "Twilight in the Desert" has begun.

Watch on Yutube, Matthew Simmons talk about the reserve estimates of the OPEC countries being wrong in a 5 minute interview with Bloomberg:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4IwtAQzrfiw

Watch in this ABC AUSTRALIA interview the DOE Study Project Leader talk about his concerns that OPEC reserve estimates are wrong:
http://abc.net.au/4corners/special_eds/20060710/
(It's the Robert Hirsch interview)

Jet

 

[jetflyer]

Secret Squirrel,

OPEC doesn't want the oil price at $70.00. They've said over and over they want to keep the oil price lower. They don't want to encourage alternatives to oil. The problem is that OPEC is pumping full tilt and they can't control the oil price any more. Alternatives are starting to be produced, which OPEC does not want.

They want the oil price high enough for profits but low enough to keep alternatives off the market.

Kuwait is the only one to have been caught lying. They didn't want the truth to be known.

The scary thing is that like you read in this article all the OPEC countries had the same 100% jump in the amount of oil they possessed in that short time period in the 1980's.

Their reserves just stay at that high level too and don't come down even after pumping 100's of billions of barrels.

They continue to lie more and more.

The OPEC countries Reserve Numbers are deeply held internal secrets. None of them have ever allowed independent verification.

There have been whistle blowers out of Saudi Arabia, saying that Saudi can not live up to even close the promises they're making.

Also you don't have to be a conspiracy theorist to believe in Peak Oil, you just have to look at the production numbers coming out of the countries and the World right now.

But, like you say: Follow the Money. Wouldn't they want the world to hit Peak Oil so the price would skyrocket!?

That's OPEC for ya, gaming the world one last time......to make a profit.

Bastards,
Jet

 

[Secret Squirrel]

I don't doubt somebody is screwing us. My but hurts every time I fill up my car.

 

[jetflyer]

For those I know are interested:

The Oildrum Blog and specialist Stuart Staniford have done it again. They've got more amazing analysis and evidence that Saudi Arabia is past their peak oil and declining fast.

This is a must, must read for anyone in the Aviation business because if this is true our jet fuel prices will be going up and our economy very likely will be going down.

MUST, MUST READ:
MORE ANALYSIS ON SAUDI ARABIA BEING PAST THEIR PEAK OIL

Stuart Staniford is offering a $2,000 bet to anyone that thinks Saudi will ever be able to pump over 10.7 MBD. The Saudi's are claiming they will be able to pump 25 MBD in the future!


Jet

 

[jetflyer]

From: REUTERS

OPEC kingpin Saudi Arabia has notified Asian refiners it will cut April crude supplies by about 10 percent below its term contracts, industry sources told Reuters on Monday, after its March supplies to Asia were 7-8 percent below contracted volumes.

Saudi is cutting the amount of oil supplied to Asia once again. So far the evidence says they're declining.

Let's hope not!
Jet

 

[jetflyer]

From Nasdaq: International Energy Agency Warns On Sharp Oil Stocks Falls

The International Energy Agency warned Tuesday that global oil and fuel inventories were being sucked lower at an unusually high pace this year, leading it to fret about demand being met in the coming months and amplifying the need for more crude from the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries.

The agency's widely-anticipated monthly assessment of the global oil balance said that stockpiles of crudes and fuels held by the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development group of industrialized nations were falling at a pace of 1.26 million barrels a day so far this year and could spell the largest stock draw in a January-to-March period in more than 10 years.

The IEA, which represents the energy security interests of the OECD, also red- flagged an unusual draw down in crude stocks.

The stock draws are what you'd expect if the world is at peak oil and the price is too low.

1.26 mbd is being drawn down from stocks to cover the shortfall in production at this time. Production is going to have to be increased by the producers. What if they can't increase?

We're going to find out if peak oil is here by the summer.

If Saudi can't increase production when needed it will be proven Saudi is past peak, like so many are predicting from their declining production numbers.

It is becoming more clearly evident every day that Saudi Arabia is declining and the world is going down with them.

If the world is past peak oil, alternatives won't have time to make up for the shortfalls and the solution will be WAR for the last remaining major oil reserves on the planet. This will include war for the reserves in the Middle East and Caspian Sea Basin.

Iran is being viewed by our leaders as a future gas station. This is just one of many reasons they will be attacked. Others include their WMD and meddling with Iraq.

My opinion: We won't find out about peak oil because Iran will be attacked before the summer, probably after they attack us first. (We'll fake an attack from Iran on ourselves or the U.S. will bait them into attacking us first, so we can be the good guys retaliating)

The oil price spikes this summer will be blamed on the war with Iran.

Jet

 

[jetflyer]

If you think I'm crazy thinking that our leaders are considering Middle Eastern oil for our future energy needs look at this:

Remember the SECRET CHENEY ENERGY MEETINGS 8 Months before 9/11?

The ONLY documents that have been released from the Energy Policy Meetings are shown below. You can make up your own mind why they fought so hard to keep everything secret and what was talked about:

From a website titled:
DOCUMENTS FROM DICK CHENEY'S ENERGY TASK FORCE

Most of the documents related to Dick Cheney's Energy Task Force remain secret, despite Federal Law declaring them to be public records.

Prior to the DC Court of Appeals allowing the records to remain secret because of "National Security", a lawsuit by Judicial Watch forced some of the documents into the public, whereupon it was discovered that most of these documents supposedly dealing with a domestic energy policy turned out to be maps of Middle East oil fields, including Iraq.

DOCUMENTS RELEASED FROM DICK CHENEY'S ENERGY MEETINGS:


Foreign Suitors for Iraq's Oil (PDF)
Iraq Oil and Gas Projects(PDF)
Saudi Arabia Oil and Gas Projects(PDF)
United Arab Emirates Oil and Gas Projects(PDF)
Map of Iraq's Oil Fields(PDF)
Map of Saudi Arabia's Oil Fields(PDF)
Map of United Arab Emirate Oil Fields(PDF)

This is our present and future, unfortunately,

Jet

 

[T-Bags]

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ehrlich-Simon_bet

"The face-off occurred in the pages of Social Science Quarterly, where Simon challenged Ehrlich to put his money where his mouth was. In response to Ehrlich's published claim that "If I were a gambler, I would take even money that England will not exist in the year 2000" - a proposition Simon regarded as too silly to bother with - Simon countered with "a public offer to stake US$10,000 ... on my belief that the cost of non-government-controlled raw materials (including grain and oil) will not rise in the long run.
You could name your own terms: select any raw material you wanted - copper, tin, whatever - and select any date in the future, "any date more than a year away," and Simon would bet that the commodity's price on that date would be lower than what it was at the time of the wager." ... Ehrlich and his colleagues picked five metals that they thought would undergo big price rises: chromium, copper, nickel, tin, and tungsten. Then, on paper, they bought $200 worth of each, for a total bet of $1,000, using the prices on September 29, 1980, as an index. They designated September 29, 1990, 10 years hence, as the payoff date. If the inflation-adjusted prices of the various metals rose in the interim, Simon would pay Ehrlich the combined difference; if the prices fell, Ehrlich et al. would pay Simon. ... Between 1980 and 1990, the world's population grew by more than 800 million, the largest increase in one decade in all of history. But by September 1990, without a single exception, the price of each of Ehrlich's selected metals had fallen, and in some cases had dropped through the floor. Chrome, which had sold for $3.90 a pound in 1980, was down to $3.70 in 1990. Tin, which was $8.72 a pound in 1980, was down to $3.88 a decade later. [4]

"All of the former's [Ehrlich's] grim predictions had been decisively overturned by events. Ehrlich was wrong about higher natural resource prices, about "famines of unbelievable proportions" occurring by 1975, about "hundreds of millions of people starving to death" in the 1970s and '80s, about the world "entering a genuine age of scarcity." In 1990, for his having promoted "greater public understanding of environmental problems," Ehrlich received a MacArthur Foundation Genius Award."

"[Simon] always found it somewhat peculiar that neither the Science piece nor his public wager with Ehrlich nor anything else that he did, said, or wrote seemed to make much of a dent on the world at large. For some reason he could never comprehend, people were inclined to believe the very worst about anything and everything; they were immune to contrary evidence just as if they'd been medically vaccinated against the force of fact. Furthermore, there seemed to be a bizarre reverse-Cassandra effect operating in the universe: whereas the mythical Cassandra spoke the awful truth and was not believed, these days "experts" spoke awful falsehoods, and they were believed. Repeatedly being wrong actually seemed to be an advantage, conferring some sort of puzzling magic glow upon the speaker."

Unfortuantely, a headline that reads "Life on Earth Will Not End Tomorrow" just doesn't sell newspapers, and it's sad that these snake oil peddlers dupe others into running with their ball.

Jetti, I see you've been "immunized"

 

[jetflyer]

View this great groundbreaking Peak Oil documentary now on Youtube. It features Matthew Simmons adviser to Dick Cheney during the Energy Policy Meetings, Bakhtiari, Colin Campbell, Jim Kunstler, Richard Heinberg, Michael Ruppert, etc.

Peak Oil Documentary finally on YOUTUBE:
"The End of Suburbia: Oil Depletion and the Collapse of the American Dream"

You'll learn a lot from this great introduction. The experts explain the coming problem very well. There are about five new documentaries coming out soon.

Also crude oil peaked in May 2005. All liquids which includes natural gas liquids, ethanol, tarsands etc. peaked August 2006. Many including T. Boone Pickens, Simmons, Deffeyes, Bakhtiari, the Oil Drum blog editors, etc. think those peak amounts will never be surpassed and that the world has reached Peak Oil.

The declines very well may be about to start. Especially if the loss of oil from Saudi continues.

T-Bags,
We'll find out by driving season if Saudi can increase their oil production. It really looks like they've entered terminal decline. Do you not agree after you read the Oil Drum Analysis? If they can't increase production we're going to be in a world of hurt financially.

A lot of people are going to thank me because I'm spreading the word on this very important topic. Especially all of you that will profit this summer from the price rises if you bought precious metals or energy.

Hope you guys learn something! I'd love to have more intelligent, educated conversations with others on this topic,

 

[jetflyer]

Make sure you watch:
"The End of Suburbia: Oil Depletion and the Collapse of the American Dream"

After you watch the documentary above watch Matthew Simmons, adviser to Cheney, and author of Twilight in the Desert: The Coming Saudi Oil Shock and the World Economy speak on CNBC.

Here is Matthew Simmons on CNBC with Maria last week on oil peaking at Youtube:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9mRLGtTzd8E

Here is Matthew Simmons on Bloomberg talking about oil peaking at Youtube:
Matt Simmons (Bloomberg): Peak Oil Now, Oil Perhaps to $300

Jet

 

[T-Bags]

Well, if you've ever wondered how seemingly normal people get involved in Cults...

Since you're giving out investment advice (the unsolicited kind) and since you are incapable of comprehending the notion that you're worng, are you going to pay back the couple of idiots who take your advice if they lose?

 

[jetflyer]

From: http://www.streetsblog.org/2007/03/14/why-is-saudi-arabias-oil-production-down/

I could have written this article!

We still have three years and nine and a half months to learn who will win the bet between energy investment banker Matthew R. Simmons and New York Times columnist John Tierney over whether oil prices would be above or below $200 a barrel in 2010. Tierney bet "below" because he believes that over the long term, the prices of natural resources always tend to decline, and he cited a 1980-1990 precious metals bet that favored that outcome.

Simmons has looked deeply into the extraction of oil from underneath the sands of Saudi Arabia, and has concluded that their oil production will most likely decrease or flatline in the coming years. Saudi Arabia claims 25% of the world's proven oil reserves, by far the largest share claimed by any country. Those who have watched The End of Suburbia: Oil Depletion and the Collapse of the American Dream have heard Simmons say, "If it turns out that Saudi Arabia has peaked, then, categorically, the world has peaked."

With oil prices having fallen into the $50 range and now trading in the $60 range, for the moment it looks like Tierney's ahead in the bet. But the more important question for the worldwide economy is whether Saudi Arabia can increase its oil output in the years ahead or not. The Oil Drum has hosted a spirited debate on that question recently.

First, on March 2, Stuart Staniford noted that Saudi Arabian oil production has declined 8% during 2006, from about 9.3 million barrels a day in January '06 to about 8.45 million barrels a day in January '07. Simultaneously, the number of drilling rigs looking for oil in that country has surged - a parallel with the situation in the United States of 1970, then the world's leading oil producer, when rising rig count failed to stanch the fall of oil production.

T-Bags,
Nobody should listen to me. They should do their own research. I think I give plenty of places for people to research though! Oh and I don't want to be right......

Jet

 

[T-Bags]

T-Bags,
Nobody should listen to me. They should do their own research. I think I give plenty of places for people to research though! Oh and I don't want to be right......

Jet

Good, we agree. Nobody should listen to you and they should do their own research. And if it makes you feel better....you are wrong.

But when the peak oil BS comes out, you consistantly carpet bomb this site with repetative articles written by the same idiots quoting each other as "proof". The "bet" from the 80's is not the basis for my views, the bet is a product of Simon actually understanding the same concepts and seeing the REAL data on natural resources. So we share the same source.

What gets even more ludicrous is your contentions that because we are running out of oil, the price of copper, gold and every other mineral will go up... so let me get this straight, in your world, we'll all starve to death and no longer be able to drive cars, and because of that we'll need more copper pipes, wires and radiators? Or do you think a worldwide economic collapse resulting in a sharp reduction in the demand for copper will actually result in an increase in copper prices?

And when we all start starving to death, instead of buying FOOD or a little of your $10 a gallon gas, we'll suddenly decide we need more "bling" and buy lots of gold (thereby driving up gold prices)?

The problem with your "theory" is it is not coherent. You take stats and make absurd deductions from them. Unfortunately, this is rather common in the media. I'll give you an example. CNN had a headline that read "Hip Hop music results in teen sex". REALLY?! If only I had know as a teenager that I merely needed to play hip hop music repeatedly.... Think of all the money I wasted on dinner and a movie!! But the truth is quite different. While teenage girls who listen to hip hop are more likely to have sex, IT HAS NOTHING TO DO WITH THE MUSIC. They are both likely the result of something else entirely (latchkey kids, parents who don't give a sh1t...). So as is typical of someone who doesn't understand statistics (if you do, then kindly explain the peak oil model...), you make false conclusions based on irrelevant data.

I'd suggest YOU do some research of the other side. The side dominated by just about every credible economist.

 

[T-Bags]

With oil prices having fallen into the $50 range and now trading in the $60 range, for the moment it looks like Tierney's ahead in the bet. But the more important question for the worldwide economy is whether Saudi Arabia can increase its oil output in the years ahead or not. The Oil Drum has hosted a spirited debate on that question recently.


Oh the fricken HORROR!! Are you telling me that production went down, yet the PRICE DID TO? YGTBSM!!! And during that decline in PRICE AND SUPPLY, worldwide wealth (GDP) WENT UP!!! So you're telling me that we got richer, oil prices went down and WE USED LESS OIL? And now you're going to tell me I should be afraid because the trend could continue? GMAFB!!! Which trend should scare me? Lower oil prices? Economic growth? Less oil use? All three together ?
OH THE HORROR!!!!

 

[IXLR8]

Not if Hillary and the Dems have their way. They want their hands on that money.

And the Rebublicans don't..ok

 

[jetflyer]

T-Bags,

You couldn't be more wrong. I've read both sides. Have you? NO. You hold on to your, "The Market Will Provide" mindset. You don't understand scalability and refuse to read anything that contradicts your viewpoint.

You also don't seem to know what a precious metal is. Gold and Silver are the two main precious metals. These have always around the world been a safe haven for hard economic times. Why are the Russian, Chinese, and Indian Central banks, as well as many others diversifying a lot of their currency reserves into gold? Because it is a more stable store of wealth than paper money. As paper money inflates away, gold and silver will keep their value.

Here's something you didn't know: Copper isn't a precious metal. Wow there's one of the 40 things you T-Bags will learn today!

I think copper prices will go down initially as well as most commodities, unless the FED starts the money printing right away. The FED can not let Deflation take hold and will flood the monetary system with liquidity and has to cause inflation.

Oh and remember your NYT article. Read why it was wrong in many ways from the two articles below. I'm sure you won't though. I've studied your side extensively trust me. I was on your side of the debate when I first learned of peak oil. Once I found out the facts and when you know the facts, which you don't, you will come to believe the early peak oil scenario, I promise. Either that or you'll see it this summer, which is more likely, since you're so hard headed and blind to views not yours.

Two articles for you to read about the only evidence you've ever provided that oil won't peak soon from the NYT:

T-Bags you have to look at this short one. I'm sure you won't though.:

Selective Reporting does not Disprove Peak Oil by Patrick Ford

It is simply amazing how often journalists and editors can dutifully report the facts as told to them by their sources without bothering to try and understand the larger picture. Specific data, cited as “proof” for a particular theory could in fact be evidence for the complete opposite conclusion if the entire data set was examined.

When observing the entire graph (and remembering the 1960’s era production figures) it becomes abundantly clear that the Kern River in fact, is well past peak having rolled over January of 1986 at around 155,000 BPD. It plateaued for another ten years around 140,000 BPD before entering the terminal decline which it currently is in around 1996.

This information is entirely lacking from the article and obviously runs counter to the claim that peak oil (in any field) can be mitigated with a hearty dose of technology. The Kern River Field saw a progression of technological innovation over the 108-year lifespan of this field, each time raising production to a peak before declining once again. Each technology improved on the efficiency (early steam injection wells consumed 20-40% of the crude for steam production) resulting in more oil entering the supply yet the long-term trend remained intact.

They go on to show the data that the KERN RIVER field peaked in 1986 and is in terminal decline in spite of the Enhanced Oil Recover techniques.

Peak Oil: What the Media don't want you to know by Roger Blanchard:

For each isolated example they provide for a production increase in an old field, it’s easy to list multiple examples of fields that have had more dramatic decreases in production. As an example, the Prudhoe Bay field has declined ~1,250,000 b/d in less than half the time it took the Kern River field to increase ~75,000 b/d.

While it took the Duri field ~20 years for production to increase ~135,000 b/d, production from the Cantarell complex (Mexico) is likely to decline ~1,700,000 b/d in an 11 year period (2004-2015).

If the examples provided in the NYTimes article are so dramatic, one has to ask the following questions: Why has California’s oil production declined ~500,000 b/d since 1985 in spite of the Kern River field exhibiting its dramatic increase?

Why has Indonesia’s oil production declined ~600,000 b/d since the early 1980s if Duri is such a miracle?

Why has Texas’ oil production declined ~2,500,000 b/d since 1972 even as the estimated ultimate recovery for the Means field doubled?

On your uninformed economic rant about production going down:
The declines have just began. Oil just peaked in August last year. Oil supply has still been sufficient because the winter was warm reducing demand for heating oil and global inventories have been making up the slack. Demand and usage is increasing 4% a year right now and it is being met. 1.6 million barrels a day are currently being drawn down from inventories to meet demand. This is the largest draw down of inventories in 10 years. Can this continue? No. Saudi is going to have to increase production.

If Saudi can't then the world can't. You don't have a clue about Saudi's production problems because I'm sure you haven't a clue that 60% of their oil comes from Ghawar and that Ghawar is having problems. You haven't read the oil drum articles I've posted, Matthew Simmons' book, etc. You probably don't even know how much oil Saudi provides the world.

Go do some research and stop being an idiot on this topic.

I know you're not an idiot. I know you're smart, you just fail to educate yourself and read both sides. It makes me laugh every time I read your biased and unresearched posts.

I'd suggest YOU do some research of the other side. The side dominated by research, geology, the production numbers, and the facts.

I'm sure you won't though.

Jet

 

[jetflyer]

T-Bags,

From: Oil Companies Running Hard to Stand Still by Phil Hart

Something you don't seem to understand:

The numbers show the global oil industry implemented oilfield projects providing an extra 3.2 million barrels a day to the market last year.
This is a historically high level of activity.

Historically HIGH LEVELS OF NEW oil were brought onto the market last year! Great News!!!

YET for 2006:

Last Friday, the US Energy Information Administration released oil production data to the end of last year. Crude oil production was nearly 200,000 barrels a day lower than in 2005. Total liquid supply was flat. That's gripping news and should be enough to rattle any economist's confidence.

(Or T-Bag's confidence but he's too blinded to the real facts that he won't pay attention)

Why if all this NEW OIL was brought online was Total Liquid supply FLAT last year compared to 2005?? (Something T-Bagger doesn't understand)

. (BECAUSE) Many of the world's largest and oldest oilfields are succumbing to (DEPLETION); production is falling, sometimes rapidly. Two of the biggest fields, Cantarell in Mexico and Burgan in Kuwait, are confirmed in this category. Even the giant Ghawar field in Saudi Arabia, the largest discovered, may be showing the same symptoms of old age.

Despite enormous industry efforts, production from the largest fields and regions such as the North Sea is declining. Companies must now exploit new frontiers. They are taking enormous strides; into deep water off Africa and Brazil, remote areas of the Caspian and East Siberia, and also into unconventional Canadian tar sands. All this and more in a bid to shore up falling production in old heartlands.

The oil industry is running hard but only just managing to stand still. The size of discoveries in the new frontiers is falling. Depletion, the rate production is declining in existing oil provinces, meanwhile, increases.

T-Bagger, the facts say we're close to peak oil. I don't know what FACTS you're reading??????
Do you live in Dreamland or something?

In just a few years, the scales that are now finely balanced between new production coming on stream and declines in mature regions may lean more heavily on the side of depletion. Peak oil would then be behind us and our economies will be forced to survive with less oil each year.

What then for oil prices? Supply can no longer increase to meet rising expectations. Increasing oil prices over the past five years, and the subsequent fall in vulnerable housing markets, have pushed the US towards recession. Perhaps that move already has enough momentum to keep a lid on consumption. If not, prices will rise again to further destroy demand. Either way, the fate of the world's largest economy may already be sealed.

T-Bags sorry I'm being so hard on you. I think you need it though to get you out of Dreamland and back to reality.

Jet

 

[jetflyer]

T-Bags had the nerve and complete lack of respect for me to post this below on 3/06/2007:

Frankly, not to be offensive, but I’ve forgotten more about petroleum economics than you’ve ever know. You are like a kid with flight sim trying to tell a 747 Capt. that he knows more about aviation. You are exposing yourself to the opinions of others and don’t have the intellectual tools to evaluate the relative merit of their argument.

Grandpa 747 Captain T-Bagger,

I saw you reading this thread about an hour and a half ago.

No reply after the SMACKDOWN I just laid on ya in the PREVIOUS TWO POSTS, by presenting the FACTS?

You can't argue facts can you?

What are you going to say now after your precious NY Times article has been proven complete trash?

What are you going to say to the fact that despite NEAR RECORD NEW OIL being brought online last year (OVER THREE TIMES MORE OIL THAN ANWR WILL EVER PROVIDE WAS BROUGHT ONLINE LAST YEAR) that this NEW OIL couldn't overcome the declines in OLD GIGANTIC OIL fields which is increasing?

You don't have a response.
The facts are unfortunately on my side for a near term worldwide oil production peak, that is why.

Also if you do respond I'm sure it won't be current thinking and it won't be informed. You may bring some of that OLD and WRONG petroleum economic theory out though.

Go ahead, BRING ON that ancient wisdom of yours..........
(We've all been waiting)

Jet

p.s. I usually show everyone respect, even those that I don't think are right, but T-Bags has continually degraded me and shown NO respect towards me. I think for now on I will completely take off the gloves towards the T-Bagger FOOL.

 

[T-Bags]

"As paper money inflates away, gold and silver will keep their value."

"Here's something you didn't know: Copper isn't a precious metal. Wow there's one of the 40 things you T-Bags will learn today! "

So son, when was it that I said copper was a precious metal? but since you are going to lecture me on the economics of gold, could kindly explain some of the risk mitigation techniques utilized by the gold industry? What's a spot deferred contract? Thanks for the help!!

Keep their value eh? So from Oct 1982 to Oct 1992, what did gold prices do?

What did the Dollar do?

Well, let's see.... the dollar trade weighted exchange rate decreased by 31% (ie DECREASED IN VALUE)
During the same period NOMINAL DOLLAR GOLD prices DECREASED by 18.5%

During the same period, cumulative inflation (as measured by the cpi) was 44.3%

So if you are to slow to get this THE REAL VALUE OF GOLD WAS CUT IN HALF DURING A 10 YEAR PERIOD OF LARGE INCREASES IN GOVT DEBT AND A DECLINING DOLLAR VALUE!

But let me guess, some slick snake oiler is on one of your conspiracy websites trying to convince all the modern neo-Malthusians that they can make money during the coming android oil wars. How clear does the proof need to be?

As to oil, during the first 10 weeks of 2007, U.S. domestic oil production is UP 5.2%
Net crude oil imports are DOWN 5.5% and even more remarkably crude oil prices are DOWN 6.7% YOY.

Now let me be clear. I am in no way saying oil production has not "peaked" the simple truth is I DON'T KNOW. Guess what, so has the production of asbestos. What you still seem to lack an understanding of is the theoretical basis of the entire peak oil theory. It is NOT based on geology. It was based on a standard normal statistical distribution. With out getting into the follies of that on a theoretical basis (why not a lognormal distribution?), you need to understand that production can decline for any number of reasons, and likely does, and at some level there is some validity in the attempt to model the situation in that way. What you don't get is that there are TWO SIDES TO THE SITUATION.

The current edition of The Economist talks of efforts to convert trees to alcohol. Currently, the cost (due to high enzyme prices) is high. But the goal is to make it cheaper than corn and sugar derived ethanols. Doing so could eliminate entirely some nation’s oil imports. Spring for a copy (or if you get a seat in first class while jumpseating, STEAL one ).

So you understand, I was reading about peak oil before it was "cool". my exposure dates back to 2000-2001. I ACTIVELY searched for EVERYTHING I could find that was written by Simmons. The change? I realized IT DOESN'T F'N MATTER!!

Do some REAL research. Read some REAL economic journals. sign up for a class. I admire your tenacity, but quit frankly, your one step away from saying 'yes preacher Jim, I'll drink the Kool-Aid'. You seem to have reached a point that you are incapable of questioning the validity of your "prophets"

Oh, and by the way, I have thing called broadband. It's really cool. You don't pay by the minute and you don't tie up a phone line. You don't even need one of those neat cradles you attach the handset of your phone to. So I can be logged on to a site (or several) and walk away at any time to do something much more important like watch judge Judy or take a dump....just so you know where you are in the hierarchy. If you've noticed, I don't post that much here. I typically do it only when I know WTF I'm talking about and the other person doesn't. You've got about as many responses in the thread alone than I have in a few years here. My past rants have been at tye webb over whether UAL would survive (I was right and he was wrong) and to the entire blue Kool-Aid club that growth wouldn't continue at the same rate and the day would come when the legacies would make money and they wouldn't, and that Dave REALLY DOESN'T care about them. My record has been pretty accurate. It seems like every time you post, the price of oil and gold goes down.....

 

[Phaedrus]

Welcome to Jonestown. Population: 1

 

[jetflyer]

As to oil, during the first 10 weeks of 2007, U.S. domestic oil production is UP 5.2%

What is your source?

Net crude oil imports are DOWN 5.5%

This has been predicted if the world has peaked.

From: http://www.dailyreckoning.co.uk/article/19032004.html

“A dollar bill put under the mattress 101 years ago would today have only 4.2 percent of its 1900 purchasing power, that is, four cents in 1900 had the same purchasing power as $1 in 2000.” Said another way - that’s a loss of 95%.

The dollar loses its value as well....

I said the comment about copper, because I've been saying buy precious metals and then you gave me a hard time about what you thought the price of copper would do. I'm not buying copper....

Also central banks are buying gold all across the world, and in economic hard times like the 1970's when people lose faith in fiat currencies because of inflation people tend to buy precious metals. We're going to see a lot more purchases of precious metals.

Also gold is up 250% since 1999. I wouldn't call that shabby.
Oil is up 570% since 1999.

I don't think you'll be right this time about peak oil.

Even you T-Bags say you think we might be at peak oil now.

I simply give a DOE expert more credibility than you T-Bags. Sorry. I just think he looked into more factors and considered more things than you. The DOE experts said that if peak oil is now we're essentially going to have a great depression develop slowly over a couple years.

The price won't really start going up until people need oil and it's not there. I believe that will be this summer driving season, since the inventories are being drawn upon so quickly right now and Saudi Arabia won't be able to provide extra oil this year.

What I've been arguing forever is that we need to expedite through government help the shift away from oil. We need to encourage electric cars, coal to oil, nuclear, drilling in ANWR, drilling off all coasts, biofuels that are worth a dang, etc.

Why is it a bad thing to expedite away from oil, instead of waiting till the peak does occur, just in case the DOE is correct?

I simply think this is going to be a lot worse than you, and I think war is our future. Those ethanol projects won't be brought on fast enough to make much of a difference.

Do you think that extra ethanol from TREES will make a difference by the summer driving season this year to keep the price of oil from rising a lot if Saudi Arabia is past their peak oil? Of course the answer is NO.

Jet

 

[T-Bags]

"What is your source?"

www.eia.doe.gov

"Net crude oil imports are DOWN 5.5%- This has been predicted if the world has peaked."

Yet prices are DOWN YOY!! Are you slow? I went by the gas station. there were no lines. They were willing to sell me all the gas I wanted.

“A dollar bill put under the mattress 101 years ago would today have only 4.2 percent of its 1900 purchasing power, that is, four cents in 1900 had the same purchasing power as $1 in 2000.” Said another way - that’s a loss of 95%. "

Really? Wow. I guess if I had been recommending folks put money inot shoe boxes that may be a valid point....

What's a dollar that was put into the stock market in 1900 worth now? Keep in mind, that's a market that's gone thru numerous recessions, a worldwide depression, 2 world wars, and several skirmishes.

Also gold is up 250% since 1999. I wouldn't call that shabby.
Oil is up 570% since 1999.

Yeah oil is up from under $10 a barrel. And gold is up from around $200.... So basically it hasn't yet reached a breakeven point for the idiots who ran out and stock up the last time gold spiked on the end of the world warning from your "prophets". You want to know a little secret? I'm not always against mineral speculation. I recommended Uranium (ironically to a bunch of gold hound pilots) back in 2003. Check that return vs your "bling".

I simply give a DOE expert more credibility than you T-Bags. Sorry. I just think he looked into more factors and considered more things than you. The DOE experts said that if peak oil is now we're essentially going to have a great depression develop slowly over a couple years.

So you pick one DOE idiot and ignore the rest? What is the OFFICIAL USGS estimate for when peak oil will happen? Let me know when you figure it out.

The price won't really start going up until people need oil and it's not there. I believe that will be this summer driving season, since the inventories are being drawn upon so quickly right now and Saudi Arabia won't be able to provide extra oil this year.

So quickly? You'd better recheck your data. We've got PLENTY of inventories

Do you think that extra ethanol from TREES will make a difference by the summer driving season this year to keep the price of oil from rising a lot if Saudi Arabia is past their peak oil? Of course the answer is NO.

Do you really think the House of Saud is that STUPID? Do you really think that if they (by your own admissions, the only ones who know for SURE what reserves they have) knew there wouldn't be enough oil this summer, they'd already be stockpiling it at home to get higher prices today AND this summer? Never mind. You won't believe anything that doesn't come off the cult website "oildumb.com"?

Oh and lighten up francis...

 

[jetflyer]

T-Bags,

www.eia.doe.gov-- LINK DOES NOT WORK. Can you also show me the quote from the EIA or DOE? Which ever it is....

You obviously haven't read the DOE Report on Peak Oil. They DO NOT PREDICT A PEAK DATE! I've told you this about 8 times. Are this forgetful or can you not read. They talk about what peak oil would mean to the economies if it occured today, 10 years from now, or 20 years from now.

You also have not read the Oil Drum Analysis on Saudi Arabia's production having peaked.....

How can we have an intelligent conversation if you won't read the two most important sources I'm trying to show you?

This is why I keep banging my head against the wall when I see what you have to say. You're ignorant on this subject, since you won't even take the time to read the sources I provide.

Also the inventories are no longer at record highs. They're being drained at the fastest rate in 10 years right now. Worldwide inventories are being drawn down at 1.6 MBD right now, during an off season for oil.

If the world can't increase production this 1.6 MBD drawdown will become much larger.

Oh and stop mentioning short term price moves. The shortages won't be felt till the demand really goes up for summer driving season. I've continually said this.

Wall Street also thinks the slowing economy is going to reduce demand for oil, so the price is going down right now in the short term. The funny thing is since the price is going down demand is increasing now, making the inventories dissapear even faster. This will make the supply situation that much worse come driving season.

Jet

 

[jetflyer]

T-Bags,

I got the EIA website to work. I couldn't find the production for the first 10 weeks, but I did find this trend for U.S. crude oil field production:
From:
http://tonto.eia.doe.gov/dnav/pet/hist/mcrfpus1A.htm

Crude Oil Production numbers from the DOE site for the U.S.:
1970 Production: 9.6 MBD average<---PEAK OIL USA (more than Saudi)
1980 Production: 8.6 Million barrels per day
1990 Production: 7.4 MBD
2000 Production: 5.84 MBD
2001 Production: 5.80 MBD
2002 Production: 5.75 MBD
2003 Production: 5.68 MBD
2004 Production: 5.43 MBD
2005 Production: 5.18 MBD
2006 Production: 5.13 MBD

The highest the USA ever reached was 10.04 MBD in November 1970, more than Saudi Arabia has and will ever pump in a month.

Notice the trend has continued to fall even the last couple years with high oil prices?

T-Bags, the conspiracy theorist, thinks the USA is CHOOSING to pump less oil year after year because of economic reasons. I hope people don't really listen to you T-Bags.....

What is scary is that since Saudi has used Enhanced Oil Recovery Techniques extensively to keep Ghawar's production high like was done in the North Sea, Australia, Mexico, etc. the decline rates are going to be just as immense.

Last year alone Saudi's production fell 8% from 9.5 to 8.7 MBD. It took the USA 10 years to see those declines! This happened in Saudi in one year.

Saudi's decline would have trended at a 14% rate if they hadn't added over 300,000 barrels a day of production from the Haradh III project. 14%!!!

This isn't unheard of. The Red Sea has been declining around 13% per year and Australia around 14%. Of course Mexico's Cantarell is seeing something close to a 20% decline rate!

These countries and fields are seeing incredible declines because they used Enhanced Oil Recovery techniques, which are really nothing but SUPER STRAWS to suck the oil out faster till the very end. Then like sucking a drink with a straw out of a cup, when you get to the end you start getting nothing but air.

Jet

 

[T-Bags]

LINK DOES NOT WORK. Can you also show me the quote from the EIA or DOE? Which ever it is....

I don't like to quote people. People have agenda's. Numbers don't. This may take a little math or at least a basic knowledge of excel for you to figure out...

http://tonto.eia.doe.gov/dnav/pet/hist/wcrfpus2w.htm

T-Bags, the conspiracy theorist, thinks the USA is CHOOSING to pump less oil year after year because of economic reasons. I hope people don't really listen to you T-Bags.....

No, in the U.S. we have chosen not to DRILL in many areas because of dumb@ss leftest...ironically some of the same complete idiots (deffreys comes to mind) that now wear the "peak oil" mantle. Don't listen to me. I don't care. The only thing it's gonna cost me is all the extra taxes I'll have to pay to support all the idiots who blew their retirement funds on your BS unsubstantiated "theories". I just don't get it. I've shown you repeatedly that your "theories" are BULLSH1T! As one of the articles stated Peak Oil production per person happened a LONG time ago. Yet we got RICHER!! Worldwide GDP grew by 5.6% last year WHILE OIL PRODUCTION DECREASED. YOU'RE WRONG. IT WAS A NONEVENT IF IT WAS TRULEY THE PEAK, and even more idiotic if it wasn't. Get help.

 

[jetflyer]

From Canadian TV CBC: Your Basic Peak Oil Story
6 minute Youtube Canadian TV CBC video clip on Peak Oil:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=r9TN3yq2U64&eurl=http://canada.theoildrum.com/node/2402

You're going to start seeing a lot more of these clips. Especially since Global Peak Oil happened last year in August at 85.1 mbd. The shortages will be felt at the summer driving season.

Stuart Staniford's Analysis from the energy blog www.theoildrum.com that Saudi Arabia is past their peak oil can clearly be seen on Paul's personal computer in the interview.

Saudi Arabia has been declining since late 2005 and has gone from 9.5 million barrels a day to 8.5 mbd now. The declines have been linear only slowing when new fields were brought online.

Links to Stuart's analysis that Saudi Arabia has peaked can be found here and here.

I don't feel like discussing peak oil right now, so if someone posts I probably won't answer,
Jet

 

[Mamma]

OK, I'll admit I don't know all the facts on peak oil but I look around and just don't see it. Why is Boeing getting record aircraft sales? Why is Virgin American starting? Why is the military buying new C-17s, Raptors, tanks and Strykers that are supposed to last thirty years? Why did operators buy 320,000 new semi trucks in the US alone last year? These all use tons of petroleum base fuel.
Do these folks not see the impending disaster? Why are they investing in their own doom? Why buy semi's, 787s and C-17s if they are going to be sitting on the ramp/docks next summer due to no fuel being available?
It is my opinion there is always someone yelling that the world is going to end as we know it. Peak oil, global warming, global cooling, over-population, bird flu, AIDS, Saddam, nuclear proliferation, Yellowstone cauldron, earthquakes, tsunamis, meteors, aliens and 2012. I say, just live your life and roll with the punches. If it makes you feel good, dig a cement bunker in your back yard and fill it with canned tomatoes, guns, gold and porn. Lots and lots of porn. Just my opinion.