GL
You sure prognosticate a lot on issues outside of your company that to my knowledge you haven't anything other than public knowledge of. Yet, to something as obvious as the Delta bankruptcy of a few years ago you swore up and down to me I was wrong when I suggested it might happen (based on public knowledge). What gives?
Russ,
Your knowledge of pending BK could have made you some cash on Wall St. Btw, did you have any idea 9-11 was going to happen? If so, you should have said something to somebody!
It was easy to prognosticate the fall of the 50 seater, just watching gas prices. This last DL contract allows more 76 seaters, but really hammers the 50 seaters and total RJ numbers at DCI, with 149 more leaving than coming in, which economically is good for the company and makes passengers happier. Throw in 88 717s to take back many of the regional routes that were given to DCI after 9-11 by other management and the BK process, and it is even more sweet. Other majors will see that 50 seaters just can't compete when high oil exists, and that may be troubling to regionals who mainly have 50 seaters in their inventory. Low cost regionals (like Gojets and Republic) will then fight hard to capture any additional flying available, again adding to the cost savings for the Legacies.
You see, after 9-11 the regionals really had the legacies over the barrel with their better balance sheets and leverage for feed during the BKs. As the legacies have gotten stronger, a lot due to new fees like bag fees, the regionals have gotten weaker and needed their own consolidation to try to keep contracts. This will continue, and new rest/fatigue rules, hiring minimums, and legacy hiring will probably put a lot of pressure on those large regionals. Even legacies are returning to cities like Roanoke, Wilmington, Fayatteville, Chatanooga, Ashville, which passengers are enjoying very much.
As far as knowing things at your company, I've got friends at a lot of companies, and follow the news and boards. But guessing 50 seaters would go away enmasse was not that hard to guess. Even Mike Boyd guessed that. They don't work well with high gas, period.
So Russ, are you and Jon Rivoli going to apply to the Majors when huge hiring commences? Or, are you two lifers?
Bye Bye---General Lee