Is Song singing the Blues?

[Ty Webb]

Uh, sorry. 50,000 lbs of thrust on a 100K lb airplane. Not enough coffee, must of mixed up my take-aways and my goes-into's.

Typical BOW is around 69K. The MTOW we pay for is is 120,000# although they could be operated heavier.

ATL-MSP you might see 111,000 or so, but on short routes I've seen takeoff weights undeer 90,000 lbs, which is light enough that you have to adjust the ref speeds (so as not to rotate before Vmcg) on a 18% de-rate.

It's a great airplane, but I miss my round dials.

 

[Skank]

G4G5,
Thanks for putting a negative spin on our live tv acquisition. Why don't we just compare last years (last quarter, last month...whatever) results, and leave it at that. Talk is very cheap!

 

[G4G5]

G4G5,
Thanks for putting a negative spin on our live tv acquisition. Why don't we just compare last years (last quarter, last month...whatever) results, and leave it at that. Talk is very cheap!

Please feel free to back up your statement.

What was incorrect?

"Jet Blue had no choice but to go with the purchase of Live TV. Neeleman in an effort to save money went with the lowest bidder. Then when Live TV ran into financial trouble he was caught between a rock and a hard place."

"I am not bashing B6, it was smart for Neeleman to use it as a marketing tool. Techonology advances at such a pace, he had to jump in somewhere. Just don't believe everything you hear from the guy in ops. Take 5 minutes and do the research"

Apology accepted

G5 specs
http://www.wcci.com/profiles/specfiles/gv.pdf

 

[Skank]

I'm fully aware of the relevant terms of the live tv acquisition. I've done the research. No apology is forthcoming, so your acceptance was premature.

Talk is still cheap, so I'll let you do all the talking you want.

 

[JayDub]

When in reality they are competing against the big boys. I had 900+ channels in my G4 and G5 before B6 had their first aircraft. There are plenty of systems and options for all the airlines. Just no money. Once the economy turns who do you think will have a better system, Rockwell Collins with 45% of the market and all of their R&D or Live tv and Jetblue?

G4G5,

You must be a college professor; you did great research and totally missed the "big picture". There is a little something in American business called value. Sure a guy that pays $40 million for a G5 can spend a few extra hundred grand for 875 more channels, but that just wouldn't make sense for people paying $299 one way to the other coast. For what people pay, they get a good value. If you don't believe me, ask them. The problem with main line carriers is they charge more for less service. Who do you think has staying power?

One other point to consider; the whole IFE business is brand new. Live TV has brought a product once reserved for only the wealthiest people to the masses. That is a mighty tall order, and you can't expect not to hit a road bump or two along the way. The MacDonald brothers had no idea of the potential of their product, but Ray Kroc did. Kroc bought them out and dang near went bankrupt doing it. Without his forethought and sacrifice, where would you take your kid for a treat after a perfect report card?

There is just one point I am trying to make and that is you are judging not only a product, but an industry way too early on in it's genesis. It's was great proving you could bring a zillion channels to the wealthiest of individuals while flying, but what is really accomplished in the end? Just hang tight as a useful tool is developed that can be enjoyed by more than a select few.


Respectfully,

JayDub

 

[NYRANGERS]

I posted this in the general section. I was wondering what a typical Jetblue crew makes an hour. Thanks guys.




Aside from a few new routes, Song is basically replacing Delta Express flying. Delta Express was a limited sucess in that the original purpose was to bypass the hubs with lesiure pax. Thus freeing up the more expensive seats to sell durring the "good" years. Now Delta Express is being replaced with a far better product. Song allready has the passenger base (from Delta Express), gates, pilots, etc.

The only "trick" will be to fill the airplanes. All employees will be paid competitive LCC wages. The pilots will make up the difference by flying planes that can carry 199 pax.

Here is an example (albeight a very simplistic one). For our competition to fly the same 199 pax on the same route.....

Lets take Jetblue. For Jetblue to fly 199 pax they need two A320's, two crew's (pilots and FA's), etc. So for one full Song flight, it will take 2 flights operated by Jetblue to carry the same amount of pax. So all this "the pilots make too much, so the airline is bound to fail", is complete BS. If Song fails, I assure you it won't be because the pilots "make too much".

Maybe some Jetblue guys can help me out with this example...............

A 757 captain at Song earns around $250 an hour. A 757 F/O earns around $150. So thats $400 an hour roughly to pay the pilots. At Jetblue lets say the captain makes $120 an hour and the F/O makes $80 (not sure about these numbers, JeffG a little help here). So thats $200 an hour for Jetblue. Take the two flights Jetblue needs to operate and you get around $400 an hour just for the pilots (never mind you need to spend an extra $40,000,000 on another A320).

Anyway just some observations. Very basic, I know, but you get the idea. This is not a "who is better post" or "who is going to put who out of business post". Both airlines may do fine in this environment, time will tell.

Take care all,

NYR (missed the playoffs for the 6th straight year

 

[G4G5]

I'm fully aware of the relevant terms of the live tv acquisition. I've done the research. No apology is forthcoming, so your acceptance was premature.

Talk is still cheap, so I'll let you do all the talking you want.

Talk is cheap but facts are reality.

You provided NO facts just opnion. And......

Opnions are like As holes, Everyone has one and most of them stink. Without facts all you are doing is providing your opnion.

Once again, what in my post was incorrect? Please provide examples.

I'll let the reader's decide if an apology is in order.

PS why would I bother to list last years AA financials under a thread about Song and Sat TV?

Something, anything relevant to the thread. Here's your chance....

 

[G4G5]

Jaydub,

Once again I am not bashing B6. Like I said before, it was smart of Neeleman to use TV as a marketing tool. With technology being ever evoloving, he had to jump in somewhere.

My point is LiveTv is/was a miniority interest player, now soley owned by B6. My G5 had the rockwell collins system, (45% of the IFE market). Other's have been doing this IFE stuff for years. To think that B6 has a monolopy is absurd. When in fact their are other players like Matsushiita who have 45% of the IFE business and are activly looking for customers. Not to mention all of their R&D and support capabilities. To think that Song or for that matter anyone else will have a problem putting TV in their aircraft is absurd. To even make a statement that only B6 will have TV because we own the system is absurd. Yet that's what I am hearing and even reading on this thread

Neeleman got stuck with LiveTV( with less then 10% of the IFE market and $40 mill in the hole), if they went under he would have been screwed. He would have half his fleet with different IFE systems. No support. No contract with Collins or Matshushiita. No TV. He had no choice but to dump $80 million into LiveTV. Now he has a system that will be nothing more then it is today. Because he has to invest in the R&D upgrades out of pocket.

What kills me is that a large percentage of the B6 folks seem to be under the impression that they have the rights to he only system. Far from it.

Common sence tells me that the avionics folks at Collins with 45% of the IFE market will have the premier system for years to come. But today their is not airline in the US that has the capital to buy it. Just corporates. Do you think that will be the case in 5 years?

My guess is that someone will be offering a superior system(mp3's, internet, payper view, yada yada) and B6 will be stuck with 30 channels. Again I am not bashing B6. Techonology advances, right now it's a great product. What I am saying is being in the airline business and owning a miniority player in the IFE business is something that B6esnted to do, they got stuck doing it. Not because they wanted to, in fact I would venture to guess that purchasing an IFE company was no where to be found in the orignal B6 buisness plan. To put any other type of spin on it is absurd.

 

[fragglerock]

g4g5

Sounds a lot like bashing to me. What do you have against JetBlue, anyway? Whether or not Neeleman made a mistake with his acquisition of LiveTV is his and his company's problem. It seems to be working out well, so far. Who do you work for, anyway? I sure hope you aren't aspiring to be employed at jetblue, because from your remarks I can tell that you're not the type personality they are looking for, or anyone else for that matter.

I hate to rant and rave, but I'm getting a little sick of the negative commentary. Let's stop the bashing and only post good and reliable information. That's what I signed on to this site to read.

 

[FlyDeltasJets]

Re: g4g5

Sounds a lot like bashing to me. What do you have against JetBlue, anyway? Whether or not Neeleman made a mistake with his acquisition of LiveTV is his and his company's problem. It seems to be working out well, so far. Who do you work for, anyway? I sure hope you aren't aspiring to be employed at jetblue, because from your remarks I can tell that you're not the type personality they are looking for, or anyone else for that matter.

I hate to rant and rave, but I'm getting a little sick of the negative commentary. Let's stop the bashing and only post good and reliable information. That's what I signed on to this site to read.

I don't suppose you read the title to this thread or the post that started it?

 

[Daedalus]

Fragglerock:

Once upon a time G4G5 applied to, and was offered employment with, jetBlue. On his own volition he decided to turn down the job and take his chances with AA. At the time, it seemed like a good bet, but now he's looking down the barrel of a pending furlough...who would've guessed such a thing would ever happen at AA only three years ago. I'd guess he's a pretty talented pilot, but he's never had much good to say about jetBlue since turning his back on a job offer that would have put him somewhere in the top 15% of the airline's seniority today. He has his own devils to deal with as I'm sure he wonders frequently "what if?" The only way to rationalize that would be to hope that jetBlue falls off a cliff in the near future.

This thread just proves once again that pilots make bad airline CEOs.

 

[BLUE BAYOU]

Live TV also has developed and installed a video monitoring system for our A-320s with video cameras in the cabin and two monitors up front for the pilots. Additionally, they are also researching internet service in the air for the pilots to obtain weather, etc... We already have the capability at some gates in our system to get wirleless internet service from the cockpit. Eventually it may also lead to some services for the passengers. Therefore, LiveTv has quite a potential for the airline industry if not just for JetBlue. Furthermore, in response to the Song 199 seats, it won't take two flights to compare. We have 162 seats, thats not too far off from 199-- but believe me, that will not be the determining factor in making money, it's going to come down to CASM!!! If Song can sing in a low CASM, they'll have a chance.

 

[G4G5]

Re: Re: g4g5

I don't suppose you read the title to this thread or the post that started it?

Thank you, my point exactly

 

[JayDub]

G4G5,

I will not bore everyone with a quote from your last post. If you read it, you'll notice a lot of your "facts" are based on market share. That has very little to do with future performance. If I remember correctly IBM had even more of the computer market wrapped up in 1983. When was the last time you used a computer that said IBM on it? An even closer parallel might be the Irridium Satellite Phone. How much of that market did they have wrapped up? It failed too, because they couldn't convey their product to the every day needs of the average Joe.

When I started grad school in 1993, I believe they said 40% of the Fortune 500 weren't even on that list 10 years before. The 10 years before that, movement onto or off Fortune 500 was unheard of. Please keep that in mind as you cite market share as a "fact".

Now, onto the your contention jetBlue is going to be stuck with old equipment in just a few years. Why do you think Neeleman won't invest in R&D? He invested in a live IFE system when everyone thought he was nuts for doing so. He invested dollars in an area that no one else did, at exactly the right time. Isn't that counted as precedent? I think there is little doubt he'll spend the money to improve the current system, when the time is right.

I am very glad for you that you've made choices that were right not only for you, but also your family. However, what might be right for you, is not right for me. I was very unsatisfied with the lifestyle the corporate arena offered me. The biggest attribute of my job now is the schedule. I am now in the top 60% of the list for Captains. This means I will have every holiday and weekend off for the rest of my career (as long as they keep the doors open). Needless to say, to me, that is worth atleast a hundred thousand dollars a year. Maybe it isn't to you, or any one else on this board, but so be it. As long as we pursue our own goals, we'll reach individual happiness. Isn't that what this game called life is all about?

Lastly, I'd like to address the original post. Haven't you noticed this idiot is a flame-bater? I know most of the pilots from jetBlue that post on this forum by name, but can yet find a single soul that knows who "Kid Charlemegne" is. Not to say he isn't a blue-suiter, but I have my doubts. It seems, though, he never runs out of people falling for his little antics. It's not that I blame you for jumping on what he says, it's just that I wish you all weren't so easily taken by him. I think his motives are quite transparent.


Respectfully,

JayDub

 

[NYRANGERS]

seats, it won't take two flights to compare. We have 162 seats, thats not too far off from 199-- but believe me, that will not be the determining factor in making money, it's going to come down to CASM!!! If Song can sing in a low CASM, they'll have a chance.

I think you may have missed my point. Inorder for you to fly 163 passengers you will need two A320's. I was just making this reference in regards to pilot salaries. Our CASM for Song will be around 7 to 7.5, not too bad and it should remain pretty fixed over time. I imagine as time passes most of the LCC will have around the same CASM as Song.

I hope you guys at Jetblue do fine, from what I have seen Song will be a significant sucess with or without Jetblue.

After 9/11 we cut Express in half. There were not too many seats for our "lesiure" pax. I imagine many went to Jetblue. I also imagine many will return to Delta (Song) and find themselves pleasantly surprised.