Is Song singing the Blues?

[NYRANGERS]

I posted this in the general section. I was wondering what a typical Jetblue crew makes an hour. Thanks guys.




Aside from a few new routes, Song is basically replacing Delta Express flying. Delta Express was a limited sucess in that the original purpose was to bypass the hubs with lesiure pax. Thus freeing up the more expensive seats to sell durring the "good" years. Now Delta Express is being replaced with a far better product. Song allready has the passenger base (from Delta Express), gates, pilots, etc.

The only "trick" will be to fill the airplanes. All employees will be paid competitive LCC wages. The pilots will make up the difference by flying planes that can carry 199 pax.

Here is an example (albeight a very simplistic one). For our competition to fly the same 199 pax on the same route.....

Lets take Jetblue. For Jetblue to fly 199 pax they need two A320's, two crew's (pilots and FA's), etc. So for one full Song flight, it will take 2 flights operated by Jetblue to carry the same amount of pax. So all this "the pilots make too much, so the airline is bound to fail", is complete BS. If Song fails, I assure you it won't be because the pilots "make too much".

Maybe some Jetblue guys can help me out with this example...............

A 757 captain at Song earns around $250 an hour. A 757 F/O earns around $150. So thats $400 an hour roughly to pay the pilots. At Jetblue lets say the captain makes $120 an hour and the F/O makes $80 (not sure about these numbers, JeffG a little help here). So thats $200 an hour for Jetblue. Take the two flights Jetblue needs to operate and you get around $400 an hour just for the pilots (never mind you need to spend an extra $40,000,000 on another A320).

Anyway just some observations. Very basic, I know, but you get the idea. This is not a "who is better post" or "who is going to put who out of business post". Both airlines may do fine in this environment, time will tell.

Take care all,

NYR (missed the playoffs for the 6th straight year

 

[G4G5]

I'm fully aware of the relevant terms of the live tv acquisition. I've done the research. No apology is forthcoming, so your acceptance was premature.

Talk is still cheap, so I'll let you do all the talking you want.

Talk is cheap but facts are reality.

You provided NO facts just opnion. And......

Opnions are like As holes, Everyone has one and most of them stink. Without facts all you are doing is providing your opnion.

Once again, what in my post was incorrect? Please provide examples.

I'll let the reader's decide if an apology is in order.

PS why would I bother to list last years AA financials under a thread about Song and Sat TV?

Something, anything relevant to the thread. Here's your chance....

 

[G4G5]

Jaydub,

Once again I am not bashing B6. Like I said before, it was smart of Neeleman to use TV as a marketing tool. With technology being ever evoloving, he had to jump in somewhere.

My point is LiveTv is/was a miniority interest player, now soley owned by B6. My G5 had the rockwell collins system, (45% of the IFE market). Other's have been doing this IFE stuff for years. To think that B6 has a monolopy is absurd. When in fact their are other players like Matsushiita who have 45% of the IFE business and are activly looking for customers. Not to mention all of their R&D and support capabilities. To think that Song or for that matter anyone else will have a problem putting TV in their aircraft is absurd. To even make a statement that only B6 will have TV because we own the system is absurd. Yet that's what I am hearing and even reading on this thread

Neeleman got stuck with LiveTV( with less then 10% of the IFE market and $40 mill in the hole), if they went under he would have been screwed. He would have half his fleet with different IFE systems. No support. No contract with Collins or Matshushiita. No TV. He had no choice but to dump $80 million into LiveTV. Now he has a system that will be nothing more then it is today. Because he has to invest in the R&D upgrades out of pocket.

What kills me is that a large percentage of the B6 folks seem to be under the impression that they have the rights to he only system. Far from it.

Common sence tells me that the avionics folks at Collins with 45% of the IFE market will have the premier system for years to come. But today their is not airline in the US that has the capital to buy it. Just corporates. Do you think that will be the case in 5 years?

My guess is that someone will be offering a superior system(mp3's, internet, payper view, yada yada) and B6 will be stuck with 30 channels. Again I am not bashing B6. Techonology advances, right now it's a great product. What I am saying is being in the airline business and owning a miniority player in the IFE business is something that B6esnted to do, they got stuck doing it. Not because they wanted to, in fact I would venture to guess that purchasing an IFE company was no where to be found in the orignal B6 buisness plan. To put any other type of spin on it is absurd.

 

[fragglerock]

g4g5

Sounds a lot like bashing to me. What do you have against JetBlue, anyway? Whether or not Neeleman made a mistake with his acquisition of LiveTV is his and his company's problem. It seems to be working out well, so far. Who do you work for, anyway? I sure hope you aren't aspiring to be employed at jetblue, because from your remarks I can tell that you're not the type personality they are looking for, or anyone else for that matter.

I hate to rant and rave, but I'm getting a little sick of the negative commentary. Let's stop the bashing and only post good and reliable information. That's what I signed on to this site to read.

 

[FlyDeltasJets]

Re: g4g5

Sounds a lot like bashing to me. What do you have against JetBlue, anyway? Whether or not Neeleman made a mistake with his acquisition of LiveTV is his and his company's problem. It seems to be working out well, so far. Who do you work for, anyway? I sure hope you aren't aspiring to be employed at jetblue, because from your remarks I can tell that you're not the type personality they are looking for, or anyone else for that matter.

I hate to rant and rave, but I'm getting a little sick of the negative commentary. Let's stop the bashing and only post good and reliable information. That's what I signed on to this site to read.

I don't suppose you read the title to this thread or the post that started it?

 

[Daedalus]

Fragglerock:

Once upon a time G4G5 applied to, and was offered employment with, jetBlue. On his own volition he decided to turn down the job and take his chances with AA. At the time, it seemed like a good bet, but now he's looking down the barrel of a pending furlough...who would've guessed such a thing would ever happen at AA only three years ago. I'd guess he's a pretty talented pilot, but he's never had much good to say about jetBlue since turning his back on a job offer that would have put him somewhere in the top 15% of the airline's seniority today. He has his own devils to deal with as I'm sure he wonders frequently "what if?" The only way to rationalize that would be to hope that jetBlue falls off a cliff in the near future.

This thread just proves once again that pilots make bad airline CEOs.

 

[BLUE BAYOU]

Live TV also has developed and installed a video monitoring system for our A-320s with video cameras in the cabin and two monitors up front for the pilots. Additionally, they are also researching internet service in the air for the pilots to obtain weather, etc... We already have the capability at some gates in our system to get wirleless internet service from the cockpit. Eventually it may also lead to some services for the passengers. Therefore, LiveTv has quite a potential for the airline industry if not just for JetBlue. Furthermore, in response to the Song 199 seats, it won't take two flights to compare. We have 162 seats, thats not too far off from 199-- but believe me, that will not be the determining factor in making money, it's going to come down to CASM!!! If Song can sing in a low CASM, they'll have a chance.

 

[G4G5]

Re: Re: g4g5

I don't suppose you read the title to this thread or the post that started it?

Thank you, my point exactly

 

[JayDub]

G4G5,

I will not bore everyone with a quote from your last post. If you read it, you'll notice a lot of your "facts" are based on market share. That has very little to do with future performance. If I remember correctly IBM had even more of the computer market wrapped up in 1983. When was the last time you used a computer that said IBM on it? An even closer parallel might be the Irridium Satellite Phone. How much of that market did they have wrapped up? It failed too, because they couldn't convey their product to the every day needs of the average Joe.

When I started grad school in 1993, I believe they said 40% of the Fortune 500 weren't even on that list 10 years before. The 10 years before that, movement onto or off Fortune 500 was unheard of. Please keep that in mind as you cite market share as a "fact".

Now, onto the your contention jetBlue is going to be stuck with old equipment in just a few years. Why do you think Neeleman won't invest in R&D? He invested in a live IFE system when everyone thought he was nuts for doing so. He invested dollars in an area that no one else did, at exactly the right time. Isn't that counted as precedent? I think there is little doubt he'll spend the money to improve the current system, when the time is right.

I am very glad for you that you've made choices that were right not only for you, but also your family. However, what might be right for you, is not right for me. I was very unsatisfied with the lifestyle the corporate arena offered me. The biggest attribute of my job now is the schedule. I am now in the top 60% of the list for Captains. This means I will have every holiday and weekend off for the rest of my career (as long as they keep the doors open). Needless to say, to me, that is worth atleast a hundred thousand dollars a year. Maybe it isn't to you, or any one else on this board, but so be it. As long as we pursue our own goals, we'll reach individual happiness. Isn't that what this game called life is all about?

Lastly, I'd like to address the original post. Haven't you noticed this idiot is a flame-bater? I know most of the pilots from jetBlue that post on this forum by name, but can yet find a single soul that knows who "Kid Charlemegne" is. Not to say he isn't a blue-suiter, but I have my doubts. It seems, though, he never runs out of people falling for his little antics. It's not that I blame you for jumping on what he says, it's just that I wish you all weren't so easily taken by him. I think his motives are quite transparent.


Respectfully,

JayDub

 

[NYRANGERS]

seats, it won't take two flights to compare. We have 162 seats, thats not too far off from 199-- but believe me, that will not be the determining factor in making money, it's going to come down to CASM!!! If Song can sing in a low CASM, they'll have a chance.

I think you may have missed my point. Inorder for you to fly 163 passengers you will need two A320's. I was just making this reference in regards to pilot salaries. Our CASM for Song will be around 7 to 7.5, not too bad and it should remain pretty fixed over time. I imagine as time passes most of the LCC will have around the same CASM as Song.

I hope you guys at Jetblue do fine, from what I have seen Song will be a significant sucess with or without Jetblue.

After 9/11 we cut Express in half. There were not too many seats for our "lesiure" pax. I imagine many went to Jetblue. I also imagine many will return to Delta (Song) and find themselves pleasantly surprised.

 

[BLUE BAYOU]

According to the SONG website, TVs won't be a part of the leather seats until Early 2004!!! I'm not sure how this is going to play on the expectant traveller when he/she can pay the same price on JB and really get the entertainment advertised. Nine months at the earliest is a long time to pass out surveys to passengers on what kind of channel selections they want on their "TVs".

 

[G4G5]

TV is great but it's not going to make or break Song.

Remember the term LCC. LOW COST Carrier.

It's not MCC Most Channel Carrier or Best TV Carrer

This is moving very rapidly to a price line business.

You don't seen any web sites, Airline with TV.com. But their are plenty called Cheaptickets.com

Song will be just fine. I seem to remember another LCC that does pretty good without tv. Southwest.

If you think I am full of it take the time to look at the prices. Song is not going to have any problem. On the other hand American will no doubt have to do something.

http://www.newsday.com/mynews/ny-trsong3218304apr13.story

 

[NYRANGERS]

Song gives analysts good vibrations

By Todd Pack | Sentinel Staff Writer
Posted April 13, 2003

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STORIES

Delta's new tune
Apr 13, 2003

March makeover. (ERIK S. LESSER FOR THE ORLANDO SENTINEL)
Apr 13, 2003

Delta Air Lines isn't the only big airline to launch a low-cost brand, but some experts say it could be one of the only carriers to make the concept work.

Song's gizmo-packed planes, low overhead and direct service from the Northeast to prime vacation spots such as Orlando could make it the most serious threat yet to bargain brands such as AirTran, JetBlue and Southwest, analysts said.

"There are people who'll say I'm crazy, but I believe Song is a major competitor," airline consultant Michael Boyd said.

Big airlines have always had trouble running successful small ones because their larger organizations aren't nearly as nimble or efficient as those of their low-cost competitors, said George Hamlin, a senior vice president of Washington-based Global Aviation Associates.

Bargain brands such as United Airlines' Shuttle and US Airways' MetroJet couldn't fly as cheaply and ended up among the first business lines cut when air travel fell after the Sept. 11, 2001, terrorist attacks, analysts said.

Delta's own Delta Express brand, launched in October 1996 to help the No. 3 airline fend off discounters on key Florida routes, is still flying but will be replaced by Song.

Start-up cost: $65 million

Florida is a crucial market for Delta, representing 30 percent of its domestic revenue, said Song's president, John Selvaggio.

But most of that revenue comes from tourists, who typically pay less for their tickets than do business travelers, who often pay a premium for booking at the last minute.

By keeping Song's operating costs down, the company hopes to make more money on those Florida leisure fares, helping the company overall.

Delta is spending $65 million to start a new airline from scratch rather than change Delta Express because it wanted its low-cost brand to have a distinct identity, one where travelers wouldn't expect amenities such as first-class that are associated with Delta's mainline service, said Tim Mapes, Song's managing director.

And Song is all about being distinctive -- from its vivid colors, to its melodious name to its entertainment system. The system, designed to one-up JetBlue, promises live TV plus a digital music library, video games and Internet access. JetBlue, which also flies between the Northeast and Florida, offers live satellite TV.

But Song aims to make money by lowering its costs, executives said.

It plans to keep its planes flying 12.7 hours a day, compared with 11.5 hours a day for Delta Express. Planes don't make money sitting at the gate.

Banning stand-by "buddy passes" for friends and families of employees and steering passengers to self-service kiosks will let Song get by with fewer workers at the airport.

Removing the first-class section and a galley from Song's Boeing 757s will let the airline increase capacity from 186 passengers to 199. U.S. regulations require one flight attendant for every 50 passengers, so limiting capacity to 199 will eliminate the need for an extra flight attendant on board the aircraft.

Using 36 of Delta's newest 757s will give Delta lower maintenance costs than it had on Delta Express, which flew older, smaller 737s. Delta Express' planes will go back to Delta's mainline service.

Pennies a mile

Delta's goal in all this is to hold down Song's operating cost per available seat mile, a key figure watched by analysts. Delta's was 10.3 cents in 2002. Spokeswoman Stacy Geagan said Song's goal is between 7 cents and 8 cents a mile.

JetBlue said in January its operating cost was 6.4 cents. Southwest's was 7.4 cents, while AirTran's was 8.5 cents. The discounters were among the few U.S. airlines to make money in 2002.

Other airlines are looking at starting low-fare units. United is working on a successor to its defunct Shuttle, and Virgin Group is looking at starting a low-price U.S. carrier -- a plan the British company says hinges on one or more existing U.S. airlines going out of business soon.

But while the industry is watching Song, it probably won't be a role model for other big carriers, Boyd said.

If Song works, it will be because the airline is focused on the East Coast, where Delta already is strong. It will focus on key cities such as New York, where demand is high for cheap transportation to Orlando and other Florida vacation spots.

There isn't enough demand to support a Song in smaller markets, Boyd said. "They won't be putting those planes in Syracuse."

Hamlin agreed. "If it's confined to a particular set of [large] markets, it may work," he said.

Todd Pack can be reached at [email protected] or 407-420-5407.


Copyright © 2003, Orlando Sentinel

 

[JayDub]

G4G5,

I have yet to see you answer any of my points in my second post. What gives? Why are you just repeating the same old line? One thing to remember about your MCC theory is this is a new concept, it wasn't around in 1971 when Herb got his start. I would say it would be cost prohibitive to retofit all his aircraft now.


NYRangers,

Please take that article for what it is; one analyst's opinion out of thousands. Don't think for a minute that most pilots, managers, FAs, etc. at jetBlue think we are in the free and clear since we found an analyst that will sing our praises. Sure, you can always find one or two out of any group that thinks they'll have smooth sialing, but usually there is a "silent majority" in most groups that realize what work really lays ahead. I hope Delta's employees don't think this means they can rest. There is a whole lot of work involved in developing a new brand.

I wish you guys luck. I've always said this industry needed more real competition, now we'll have it. Now you can see the best that both companies have to offer.

JayDub

 

[NYRANGERS]

NYRangers,

Please take that article for what it is; one analyst's opinion out of thousands. Don't think for a minute that most pilots, managers, FAs, etc. at jetBlue think we are in the free and clear since we found an analyst that will sing our praises. Sure, you can always find one or two out of any group that thinks they'll have smooth sialing, but usually there is a "silent majority" in most groups that realize what work really lays ahead. I hope Delta's employees don't think this means they can rest. There is a whole lot of work involved in developing a new brand.

I wish you guys luck. I've always said this industry needed more real competition, now we'll have it. Now you can see the best that both companies have to offer.

JayDub

I just wanted to post an article that seems more informed than most. It's refreshing to see one that doesn't blame the cost of labor as the sole indicator of success or failure.

There are some interesting things happening at Song. A friend of mine was hired by Song to be an FA. She was going to be furloughed by Delta, so she attened the "audition" (ya, thats what they are calling it, a little goofy but whatever) and was hired. She signed a 5 year contract, at the end she will get $25,000 and be free to pursure other employment.

I don't think Delta people will "rest" because of an article that thinks they will suceed. Song is based on some good solid ideas. Some ideas are shared and some will be very unique. I think the ability to pre purchase food is a great idea, you pay for what you want.

Anyway, I think Song will be a winner. With Delta's added perks, I see many people comming over to Song.

Take care and fly safe.

NYR

 

[Kid Charlemagne]

JayDub, what's ur damage?

JayDub said:

Lastly, I'd like to address the original post. Haven't you noticed this idiot is a flame-bater? I know most of the pilots from jetBlue that post on this forum by name, but can yet find a single soul that knows who "Kid Charlemegne" is. Not to say he isn't a blue-suiter, but I have my doubts. It seems, though, he never runs out of people falling for his little antics. It's not that I blame you for jumping on what he says, it's just that I wish you all weren't so easily taken by him. I think his motives are quite transparent.


Respectfully,

JayDub


Hey JayDub,

Newsflash....yes, I really am a JetBlue captain....although I am not much of Blue-Aid drinker. As far as who I am, lets just say that I am senior to you, as I am in the top half of the captain list. BTW, I also note you have only 3,000+ hours.....that doesn't seem like very much. I for example have over 8,000 - not that more flight time automatically makes one a better pilot, but I certainly think it is a big factor (it's hard to over-emphasize the importance of experience).

So why don't you stop wasting your time wondering if I really am a "bluesuiter" or not....I don't think anybody else here really cares one way or the other. Instead just add your opinion to the thread and I'm sure most here will read it with an open mind.

Finally, I know this is off-topic....but tomorrow (April 15) is deadline for AA pilots to vote on TA. Let's hope our brothers over at AMR are smart enough to vote down that piece of garbage and tell management what they can do with it!! It's about time some pilots showed a little spine.....full pay to the last day!!!!!

 

[Skank]

OK kid,
comparing flight time? That's more than sad. Tool alert!

 

[Eagleflip]

A couple of points...

First point: I have a few questions about Song. These q's aren't intended to become flame bait--I'm simply interested in how the CASM is going to be lower than mainline Delta.

- The turn times are supposed to be short. Will the pilots and inflight clean the jet in order to make that happen?

- If so, has there been any scuttlebutt on the street on how that will be accepted among the pilots?

- I also read in the Wall Street Journal that Song intends on using a new "system" for bag handling, specifically a single bag conveyer. Won't that slow down bag delivery times?

Second point: I only have around 4800 hours. Gee. I guess I have a long way to go to be as safe as the high timers on the board...

...just when I thought I was competent...BAM...somebody comes along and does a flight time pecker check.

 

[JayDub]

Newsflash....yes, I really am a JetBlue captain....although I am not much of Blue-Aid drinker.

SONG has some turbulence ahead. I don't think B6 is too worried right now.....General Lee care to comment? What have u heard?

OK, so you aren't a Blue-Aid drinker? Then you must just like getting a rise out of people, huh? I thought that was the definition of a Flame-Bater.

(it's hard to over-emphasize the importance of experience).

I would definately agree!

JayDub

 

[Kid Charlemagne]

A few responses

JayDub:

No hard feelings. Just do me a favor and don't make assumptions about me - stick to your own thoughts and opinions. The truth is this thread was not intended to be flamebait....I merely heard through some pretty knowledgeable people that Song's IFE might not be in place for 2 years and I wanted to know if anyone else could verify that. That's it - nothing more to it. If you want to consider that "flame-bait" then you go right ahead.


Eagleflip:

I would be very surprised if the Delta pilots go back in the cabin and help clean on turns. But hey, I could be wrong. Also, I never said a person with less flight time is "unsafe"....merely said experience is important. Though you have 4800 hours, I see you have a military background, flew the F-15. I respect that and feel (like most) that military time should be given the benefit of some multiplier when considering total time.
I merely expressed surprised that JayDub, with apparantly all civilian time, has only 3,000 hours. That seems very low to me - but again, I never said that necessarily makes him or anyone else an unsafe pilot....so hopefully no one is gonna put words in my mouth.