High oil and RJs do not mix well.....

[time builder]

You're logic is correct in your direct comparison, but unfortunately the industry is much more complicated. It's all about matching capacity with demand.

Let's say you have 50 people per day who want to fly from Dothan to Moscow. (Hey, you never know). If you're the only game in town that can offer that city pair, you stand to make a nice profit. But you don't put a 767 on that direct route, you put a 50 seat RJ from Dothan to Atlanta, and a 767 from Atlanta to Moscow (along with other pax from other parts of the country). Both flights are full, and the airline makes money.

Oh, no, I'm not refering to those, more the SLC-PHX or any other Skywest route to large cities. Don't mean to pick on them in particular, but I know they're taking a hit right now on the Delta side.

 

[79%N1]

Delta = Rudderless ship.

 

[fam62c]

I think that the real issue is that AIRLINES and high oil prices don't mix, especially in a slowing economy. The problem is not unique to small jets. If things continue to detiorate capacity will be cut, airplanes will be parked, and employees will be laid off. This has happened in every recession even without sky-high fuel costs and this one won't be any different.

 

[N2264J]

Let's say you have 50 people per day who want to fly from Dothan to Moscow...

And that's only part of it. Say you have 50 people per day that want to fly from Columbus, Ohio to Myrtle Beach. Add a premium to the price for by-passing a connection at the hub and going direct.

If you put a 737 on it, 50 people wouldn't break even. So when Generally tries to peddle this crap about CRJs being gas guzzlers, you are permitted to roll your eyeballs. They're parking mainline aircraft too.

 

[time builder]

And that's only part of it. Say you have 50 people per day that want to fly from Columbus, Ohio to Myrtle Beach. Add a premium to the price for by-passing a connection at the hub and going direct.

If you put a 737 on it, 50 people wouldn't break even. So when Generally tries to peddle this crap about CRJs being gas guzzlers, you are permitted to roll your eyeballs. They're parking mainline aircraft too.

Good point. Point to point flexibility is another advantage of RJs, kind of like SLC to PIT, they skip a hub and thus attract more customers. Again, the RJ excels with small load factors, and there will always be a need to feed the hubs.

Still, I see plenty of RJs out of SLC going to places like PHX, DEN, SFO, LAX etc. 8 years ago you might have one Skywest flight to SFO out of SLC, the others were strictly mainline. What happened? Well, for one thing, Delta parked their whole fleet of 727s and made up the difference in RJs.

Seriously, it used to be a ratio of 3 to 2 Delta to Skywest out of SLC before 2001, now its more like 4 to 1 Skywest to Delta. The market has been saturated with RJs and there's plenty of room to consolidate.

 

[General Lee]

Delta = Rudderless ship.

No, they are parking RJs. That is good. Ship is getting back on track. A good merger (not a bad one) will make it even better. There is one area that will take a large hit unfortunately, and that is the regional partner area. Sad but true.

Bye Bye--General Lee

 

[General Lee]

And that's only part of it. Say you have 50 people per day that want to fly from Columbus, Ohio to Myrtle Beach. Add a premium to the price for by-passing a connection at the hub and going direct.

If you put a 737 on it, 50 people wouldn't break even. So when Generally tries to peddle this crap about CRJs being gas guzzlers, you are permitted to roll your eyeballs. They're parking mainline aircraft too.

Why is Ed Bastain doing what he is doing? Do you think he has the numbers in front of him? He is the CFO/President. Tell me what you would do with 50 seat RJs or any sized RJs during high oil and the slow season? I am waiting. Johnny Pennekamp couldn't answer this question, and I can't wait to hear what you would tell ED.


Bye Bye--General Lee

 

[General Lee]

Good point. Point to point flexibility is another advantage of RJs, kind of like SLC to PIT, they skip a hub and thus attract more customers. Again, the RJ excels with small load factors, and there will always be a need to feed the hubs.

Still, I see plenty of RJs out of SLC going to places like PHX, DEN, SFO, LAX etc. 8 years ago you might have one Skywest flight to SFO out of SLC, the others were strictly mainline. What happened? Well, for one thing, Delta parked their whole fleet of 727s and made up the difference in RJs.

Seriously, it used to be a ratio of 3 to 2 Delta to Skywest out of SLC before 2001, now its more like 4 to 1 Skywest to Delta. The market has been saturated with RJs and there's plenty of room to consolidate.

That is not a good thing with high oil. We would make more money spreading out the costs on 3 mainline flights a day instead of 6 RJs. That is something Ed Bastain is trying to fix, like the SLC to BHM flight. It is gone until the Summer. You just can't make enough money to cover the fixed costs of each flight on a 50 seater, and even a 76 seater on that BHM flight.

By the way, we were going to get a bunch of MD90s from China and Japan and we were going to replace many RJ flights out of SLC, until the merger talk started up again. We may still get them anyway after the fact. Supposedly we are a signature away, and they are fairly cheap ($9 million with engines supposedly). We have a sim for them, and mechanics who can fix them. We shall see....


Bye Bye--General Lee

 

[FishandFly]

General,

That is good news about the MD-90's. They were the original RJ anyway correct?

 

[IronCityBlue]

And that's only part of it. Say you have 50 people per day that want to fly from Columbus, Ohio to Myrtle Beach. Add a premium to the price for by-passing a connection at the hub and going direct.

If you put a 737 on it, 50 people wouldn't break even. So when Generally tries to peddle this crap about CRJs being gas guzzlers, you are permitted to roll your eyeballs. They're parking mainline aircraft too.

Good points, there is definately, and always be, a need for RJ's. But not 49% of an airline's block hours just because a concessionary pilot contract says its allowed. Not RJ's trying to serve every domestic market including hub to hub etc. Every legacy system out there has a large glut of RJ's. They will always be around, regardless of being brought back in house by scope or not, because their will always be a market for 50 and 70 seat aircraft. The main point here is that there are way more RJ's now than any legacy system needs so they will be reduced significantly.

The only question remains will mainline pilot groups further erode their scope language to allow more 70 and 90+ (and larger) planes to be outsourced as this next market wave favors larger aircraft for fuel economies. That's the wildcard. CAL is holding fast at 50 seats (thank God!) and AA is talking about 100% in house scope (thank God!) so maybe others will follow instead of simply incrimentally accomodating management's domestic outsourcing business plan while at the same time bragging about the restrictions they haven't gotten rid of today, yet.

 

[WhatRUSmokinGL?]

The only question remains will mainline pilot groups further erode their scope language to allow more 70 and 90+ (and larger) planes to be outsourced as this next market wave favors larger aircraft for fuel economies. That's the wildcard. CAL is holding fast at 50 seats (thank God!) and AA is talking about 100% in house scope (thank God!) so maybe others will follow instead of simply incrimentally accomodating management's domestic outsourcing business plan while at the same time bragging about the restrictions they haven't gotten rid of today, yet.

Let's ask GL/737 how he voted.

What were the Three questions the WSurf had for you GL/737?

Bottom Line: The last time GL/737 had a chance to stand up on Scope what did he do?

He ran around puffing his chest out saying he would vote NO.

What did he do? HE VOTED YES!!!!
General Lee/737 caved in and further eroded this profession.

He's a clown. Pretty amusing, if not sad in his attempts to get attention.

 

[WhatRUSmokinGL?]

Show me exactly where he does that. I'd like quotes and links please.

You asked..... His response to an obvious regional pilot.

He's full sh!t and hates when people call him on his pettiness.

Dated 5/07

Quote:
Originally Posted by SKYWRJGUY
General Lee:

I'd wouldn't boast too much: DAL price May 3, open $21.75; May 15, close $18.20--a loss of 16.3% in market value in less than two weeks. I recall a presss release that said something akin to, "we're proud of our emergence, in fact we have the second highest market value of any US carrier "(of course, if they'd just issues more stock, they'd be No.1). And since most of your prophetic messages on here trend towards incorrect, you're mostly just entertainment, and a B-movie at that. Go hold your 738, slap yourself on the back and keep making no sense to others...

GL/737's response:

"You must be new to stocks. This was suppose to happen, since a lot of the creditors got stock, and were likely to sell initally or after a couple weeks to get back some of the money they were owed. That makes the stock price go down. It will likely go to around $15 a share, and then rise again, reflecting the true value. Time for you to go watch Cramer from your Pasco hotel room...

So, my prophetic messages on here are incorrect, eh? I have one that very likely will come true soon. Many 50 seat RJs will vanish and we will get more mainline planes to replace them. That will be refreshing, for the mainline pilots and passengers in general..... Have fun kicking it in Fargo."


Bye Bye--General Lee __________________
"I dont have a GOING problem, I have a GROWING problem" (too much)(Avodart commercial)

 

[time builder]

That is not a good thing with high oil. We would make more money spreading out the costs on 3 mainline flights a day instead of 6 RJs. That is something Ed Bastain is trying to fix, like the SLC to BHM flight. It is gone until the Summer. You just can't make enough money to cover the fixed costs of each flight on a 50 seater, and even a 76 seater on that BHM flight.

By the way, we were going to get a bunch of MD90s from China and Japan and we were going to replace many RJ flights out of SLC, until the merger talk started up again. We may still get them anyway after the fact. Supposedly we are a signature away, and they are fairly cheap ($9 million with engines supposedly). We have a sim for them, and mechanics who can fix them. We shall see....


Bye Bye--General Lee

That brings up another question. If they're grounding planes for fuel inefficiency, will we see any MD80s parked?

 

[79%N1]

You asked..... His response to an obvious regional pilot.

He's full sh!t and hates when people call him on his pettiness.

Dated 5/07

Quote:
Originally Posted by SKYWRJGUY
General Lee:

I'd wouldn't boast too much: DAL price May 3, open $21.75; May 15, close $18.20--a loss of 16.3% in market value in less than two weeks. I recall a presss release that said something akin to, "we're proud of our emergence, in fact we have the second highest market value of any US carrier "(of course, if they'd just issues more stock, they'd be No.1). And since most of your prophetic messages on here trend towards incorrect, you're mostly just entertainment, and a B-movie at that. Go hold your 738, slap yourself on the back and keep making no sense to others...

GL/737's response:

"You must be new to stocks. This was suppose to happen, since a lot of the creditors got stock, and were likely to sell initally or after a couple weeks to get back some of the money they were owed. That makes the stock price go down. It will likely go to around $15 a share, and then rise again, reflecting the true value. Time for you to go watch Cramer from your Pasco hotel room...

So, my prophetic messages on here are incorrect, eh? I have one that very likely will come true soon. Many 50 seat RJs will vanish and we will get more mainline planes to replace them. That will be refreshing, for the mainline pilots and passengers in general..... Have fun kicking it in Fargo."


Bye Bye--General Lee __________________
"I dont have a GOING problem, I have a GROWING problem" (too much)(Avodart commercial)

HA! Thanks, and I told you so.......

And tne of MANY MANY MANY such posts. This belittleing has been his MO since he started posting, and many have grown tired of it.

Thanks Whatareyou...........

 

[John Pennekamp]

As I said, when you respond to him, you only pour gas on a dwindling fire.

Don't respond to him, and just let him fade away.

 

[johnsonrod]

How does this GL bashing even relate to the orginal thread? Are you guys denying that RJs and high gas prices don't mix? Perhaps someone could elaborate as to why that doesn't make sense?

Let's face the music guys. We in the regional business are going to be in a "pinch" if oil continues to rise. No way Eagle can afford to fly E135s around the Northeast when Delta and USAirways can do it cheaper on a per-seat basis. No way Delta will pay for Comair or ASA feed on competitive routes where Delta can't jack up the prices to cover the rising costs. It's basic economics.

Sure, GL is a blowhard. But guess what, he was passing along an article that basically states what we all know anyways - the regionals will be squeezed very soon if oil costs don't come down.... There's no DENYING that. Can't blame that on GL.

Keeping my fingers crossed that Netjets calls me...

 

[N2264J]

Re: High oil and RJs do not mix well...

Are you guys denying that RJs and high gas prices don't mix?

What I'm saying is high gas prices don't mix well with any aircraft carrying passengers for hire. This isn't just an RJ problem.

RJs, when deployed in their element, serve their mission well and efficiently. The big planes are cheaper if you can fill them up but the RJ has lower trip costs and that's an important aspect. Read the following document but start on page 2.

http://www.rjdefense.com/2003/10_Things_About_Scope.pdf

Remember a market is more than a city pair. It is a city pair at a certain time of day. So if you're matching capacity to demand and trying to capture every available dollar in revenue then

- hub and spoke operations

- hub to hub at off hours and

- point to point on the thin routes

can be good missions for the RJ.

Don't forget, they're going to be parking mainline aircraft as well. This is an industry wide problem.

 

[General Lee]

That brings up another question. If they're grounding planes for fuel inefficiency, will we see any MD80s parked?

Unlikely. We actually were going to buy a bunch of MD90s at firesale prices (rumored at $9 million each including engines--half the price of a CR9). You see, not all of the CR9 flights are going to be parked, only the ones that are not profitable during this slow time. (like SLC to BHM) It will probably restart during the Summer. But, many more 50 seaters will be parked, for several reasons, top among them high fuel and 50 seaters do not mix well. Just not enough seats (like an MD90) to spread out the costs. We are still one signature away from those MD90s, and they could be acquired to possibly replace some old DC9s if we happen to merge with NWA. There are plenty of ways we could use them, and we have the FTDs and Sim for them, along with mx expertise.

Bye Bye--General Lee

 

[General Lee]

What I'm saying is high gas prices don't mix well with any aircraft carrying passengers for hire. This isn't just an RJ problem.

RJs, when deployed in their element, serve their mission well and efficiently. The big planes are cheaper if you can fill them up but the RJ has lower trip costs and that's an important aspect. Read the following document but start on page 2.

http://www.rjdefense.com/2003/10_Things_About_Scope.pdf

Remember a market is more than a city pair. It is a city pair at a certain time of day. So if you're matching capacity to demand and trying to capture every available dollar in revenue then

- hub and spoke operations

- hub to hub at off hours and

- point to point on the thin routes

can be good missions for the RJ.

Don't forget, they're going to be parking mainline aircraft as well. This is an industry wide problem.

Which current Delta airplanes will Delta park? (not including any acquired in a merger or acquisition) We lowered all of the lease rates in BK tremendously, including bringing the MD88 lease rates down from $280,000 a month to $80,000 a month. A couple here and there get taken back by lessors, but recently some MD88s have come back after the lessors couldn't find a new airline to lease to. Do you have any idea which of our mainline planes will be parked? (we are getting 10 737-700s this year, and more of the 17 757-200ERs from AAL, along with up to 6 777s)

Bye Bye--General Lee

 

[General Lee]

You asked..... His response to an obvious regional pilot.

He's full sh!t and hates when people call him on his pettiness.

Dated 5/07

Quote:
Originally Posted by SKYWRJGUY
General Lee:

I'd wouldn't boast too much: DAL price May 3, open $21.75; May 15, close $18.20--a loss of 16.3% in market value in less than two weeks. I recall a presss release that said something akin to, "we're proud of our emergence, in fact we have the second highest market value of any US carrier "(of course, if they'd just issues more stock, they'd be No.1). And since most of your prophetic messages on here trend towards incorrect, you're mostly just entertainment, and a B-movie at that. Go hold your 738, slap yourself on the back and keep making no sense to others...

GL/737's response:

"You must be new to stocks. This was suppose to happen, since a lot of the creditors got stock, and were likely to sell initally or after a couple weeks to get back some of the money they were owed. That makes the stock price go down. It will likely go to around $15 a share, and then rise again, reflecting the true value. Time for you to go watch Cramer from your Pasco hotel room...

So, my prophetic messages on here are incorrect, eh? I have one that very likely will come true soon. Many 50 seat RJs will vanish and we will get more mainline planes to replace them. That will be refreshing, for the mainline pilots and passengers in general..... Have fun kicking it in Fargo."


Bye Bye--General Lee __________________
"I dont have a GOING problem, I have a GROWING problem" (too much)(Avodart commercial)

Was I really wrong with my post? I don't think so. RJs are dropping like flies, and the MD90s were going to replace them. How do I know that? They have already trained our CVG based MD88 pilots on the MD90--since we were getting 9 of them this year(as stated by Anderson in his townhall meeting). They were going to replace many RJ routes out of SLC--and the CVG guys have been trained and start SLC flights next month. Supposedly the last signature required to actually get a large batch of them is now "delayed" until the merger/acquisition stuff is straightened out. Nobody else in the US flies the MD90, and the airlines that have them overseas are still getting A320s to replace them. Looks like I was either right before, or will be correct soon. Have a great day.


Bye Bye--General Lee