High oil and RJs do not mix well.....

[WhatRUSmokinGL?]

The only question remains will mainline pilot groups further erode their scope language to allow more 70 and 90+ (and larger) planes to be outsourced as this next market wave favors larger aircraft for fuel economies. That's the wildcard. CAL is holding fast at 50 seats (thank God!) and AA is talking about 100% in house scope (thank God!) so maybe others will follow instead of simply incrimentally accomodating management's domestic outsourcing business plan while at the same time bragging about the restrictions they haven't gotten rid of today, yet.

Let's ask GL/737 how he voted.

What were the Three questions the WSurf had for you GL/737?

Bottom Line: The last time GL/737 had a chance to stand up on Scope what did he do?

He ran around puffing his chest out saying he would vote NO.

What did he do? HE VOTED YES!!!!
General Lee/737 caved in and further eroded this profession.

He's a clown. Pretty amusing, if not sad in his attempts to get attention.

 

[WhatRUSmokinGL?]

Show me exactly where he does that. I'd like quotes and links please.

You asked..... His response to an obvious regional pilot.

He's full sh!t and hates when people call him on his pettiness.

Dated 5/07

Quote:
Originally Posted by SKYWRJGUY
General Lee:

I'd wouldn't boast too much: DAL price May 3, open $21.75; May 15, close $18.20--a loss of 16.3% in market value in less than two weeks. I recall a presss release that said something akin to, "we're proud of our emergence, in fact we have the second highest market value of any US carrier "(of course, if they'd just issues more stock, they'd be No.1). And since most of your prophetic messages on here trend towards incorrect, you're mostly just entertainment, and a B-movie at that. Go hold your 738, slap yourself on the back and keep making no sense to others...

GL/737's response:

"You must be new to stocks. This was suppose to happen, since a lot of the creditors got stock, and were likely to sell initally or after a couple weeks to get back some of the money they were owed. That makes the stock price go down. It will likely go to around $15 a share, and then rise again, reflecting the true value. Time for you to go watch Cramer from your Pasco hotel room...

So, my prophetic messages on here are incorrect, eh? I have one that very likely will come true soon. Many 50 seat RJs will vanish and we will get more mainline planes to replace them. That will be refreshing, for the mainline pilots and passengers in general..... Have fun kicking it in Fargo."


Bye Bye--General Lee __________________
"I dont have a GOING problem, I have a GROWING problem" (too much)(Avodart commercial)

 

[time builder]

That is not a good thing with high oil. We would make more money spreading out the costs on 3 mainline flights a day instead of 6 RJs. That is something Ed Bastain is trying to fix, like the SLC to BHM flight. It is gone until the Summer. You just can't make enough money to cover the fixed costs of each flight on a 50 seater, and even a 76 seater on that BHM flight.

By the way, we were going to get a bunch of MD90s from China and Japan and we were going to replace many RJ flights out of SLC, until the merger talk started up again. We may still get them anyway after the fact. Supposedly we are a signature away, and they are fairly cheap ($9 million with engines supposedly). We have a sim for them, and mechanics who can fix them. We shall see....


Bye Bye--General Lee

That brings up another question. If they're grounding planes for fuel inefficiency, will we see any MD80s parked?

 

[79%N1]

You asked..... His response to an obvious regional pilot.

He's full sh!t and hates when people call him on his pettiness.

Dated 5/07

Quote:
Originally Posted by SKYWRJGUY
General Lee:

I'd wouldn't boast too much: DAL price May 3, open $21.75; May 15, close $18.20--a loss of 16.3% in market value in less than two weeks. I recall a presss release that said something akin to, "we're proud of our emergence, in fact we have the second highest market value of any US carrier "(of course, if they'd just issues more stock, they'd be No.1). And since most of your prophetic messages on here trend towards incorrect, you're mostly just entertainment, and a B-movie at that. Go hold your 738, slap yourself on the back and keep making no sense to others...

GL/737's response:

"You must be new to stocks. This was suppose to happen, since a lot of the creditors got stock, and were likely to sell initally or after a couple weeks to get back some of the money they were owed. That makes the stock price go down. It will likely go to around $15 a share, and then rise again, reflecting the true value. Time for you to go watch Cramer from your Pasco hotel room...

So, my prophetic messages on here are incorrect, eh? I have one that very likely will come true soon. Many 50 seat RJs will vanish and we will get more mainline planes to replace them. That will be refreshing, for the mainline pilots and passengers in general..... Have fun kicking it in Fargo."


Bye Bye--General Lee __________________
"I dont have a GOING problem, I have a GROWING problem" (too much)(Avodart commercial)

HA! Thanks, and I told you so.......

And tne of MANY MANY MANY such posts. This belittleing has been his MO since he started posting, and many have grown tired of it.

Thanks Whatareyou...........

 

[John Pennekamp]

As I said, when you respond to him, you only pour gas on a dwindling fire.

Don't respond to him, and just let him fade away.

 

[johnsonrod]

How does this GL bashing even relate to the orginal thread? Are you guys denying that RJs and high gas prices don't mix? Perhaps someone could elaborate as to why that doesn't make sense?

Let's face the music guys. We in the regional business are going to be in a "pinch" if oil continues to rise. No way Eagle can afford to fly E135s around the Northeast when Delta and USAirways can do it cheaper on a per-seat basis. No way Delta will pay for Comair or ASA feed on competitive routes where Delta can't jack up the prices to cover the rising costs. It's basic economics.

Sure, GL is a blowhard. But guess what, he was passing along an article that basically states what we all know anyways - the regionals will be squeezed very soon if oil costs don't come down.... There's no DENYING that. Can't blame that on GL.

Keeping my fingers crossed that Netjets calls me...

 

[N2264J]

Re: High oil and RJs do not mix well...

Are you guys denying that RJs and high gas prices don't mix?

What I'm saying is high gas prices don't mix well with any aircraft carrying passengers for hire. This isn't just an RJ problem.

RJs, when deployed in their element, serve their mission well and efficiently. The big planes are cheaper if you can fill them up but the RJ has lower trip costs and that's an important aspect. Read the following document but start on page 2.

http://www.rjdefense.com/2003/10_Things_About_Scope.pdf

Remember a market is more than a city pair. It is a city pair at a certain time of day. So if you're matching capacity to demand and trying to capture every available dollar in revenue then

- hub and spoke operations

- hub to hub at off hours and

- point to point on the thin routes

can be good missions for the RJ.

Don't forget, they're going to be parking mainline aircraft as well. This is an industry wide problem.

 

[General Lee]

That brings up another question. If they're grounding planes for fuel inefficiency, will we see any MD80s parked?

Unlikely. We actually were going to buy a bunch of MD90s at firesale prices (rumored at $9 million each including engines--half the price of a CR9). You see, not all of the CR9 flights are going to be parked, only the ones that are not profitable during this slow time. (like SLC to BHM) It will probably restart during the Summer. But, many more 50 seaters will be parked, for several reasons, top among them high fuel and 50 seaters do not mix well. Just not enough seats (like an MD90) to spread out the costs. We are still one signature away from those MD90s, and they could be acquired to possibly replace some old DC9s if we happen to merge with NWA. There are plenty of ways we could use them, and we have the FTDs and Sim for them, along with mx expertise.

Bye Bye--General Lee

 

[General Lee]

What I'm saying is high gas prices don't mix well with any aircraft carrying passengers for hire. This isn't just an RJ problem.

RJs, when deployed in their element, serve their mission well and efficiently. The big planes are cheaper if you can fill them up but the RJ has lower trip costs and that's an important aspect. Read the following document but start on page 2.

http://www.rjdefense.com/2003/10_Things_About_Scope.pdf

Remember a market is more than a city pair. It is a city pair at a certain time of day. So if you're matching capacity to demand and trying to capture every available dollar in revenue then

- hub and spoke operations

- hub to hub at off hours and

- point to point on the thin routes

can be good missions for the RJ.

Don't forget, they're going to be parking mainline aircraft as well. This is an industry wide problem.

Which current Delta airplanes will Delta park? (not including any acquired in a merger or acquisition) We lowered all of the lease rates in BK tremendously, including bringing the MD88 lease rates down from $280,000 a month to $80,000 a month. A couple here and there get taken back by lessors, but recently some MD88s have come back after the lessors couldn't find a new airline to lease to. Do you have any idea which of our mainline planes will be parked? (we are getting 10 737-700s this year, and more of the 17 757-200ERs from AAL, along with up to 6 777s)

Bye Bye--General Lee

 

[General Lee]

You asked..... His response to an obvious regional pilot.

He's full sh!t and hates when people call him on his pettiness.

Dated 5/07

Quote:
Originally Posted by SKYWRJGUY
General Lee:

I'd wouldn't boast too much: DAL price May 3, open $21.75; May 15, close $18.20--a loss of 16.3% in market value in less than two weeks. I recall a presss release that said something akin to, "we're proud of our emergence, in fact we have the second highest market value of any US carrier "(of course, if they'd just issues more stock, they'd be No.1). And since most of your prophetic messages on here trend towards incorrect, you're mostly just entertainment, and a B-movie at that. Go hold your 738, slap yourself on the back and keep making no sense to others...

GL/737's response:

"You must be new to stocks. This was suppose to happen, since a lot of the creditors got stock, and were likely to sell initally or after a couple weeks to get back some of the money they were owed. That makes the stock price go down. It will likely go to around $15 a share, and then rise again, reflecting the true value. Time for you to go watch Cramer from your Pasco hotel room...

So, my prophetic messages on here are incorrect, eh? I have one that very likely will come true soon. Many 50 seat RJs will vanish and we will get more mainline planes to replace them. That will be refreshing, for the mainline pilots and passengers in general..... Have fun kicking it in Fargo."


Bye Bye--General Lee __________________
"I dont have a GOING problem, I have a GROWING problem" (too much)(Avodart commercial)

Was I really wrong with my post? I don't think so. RJs are dropping like flies, and the MD90s were going to replace them. How do I know that? They have already trained our CVG based MD88 pilots on the MD90--since we were getting 9 of them this year(as stated by Anderson in his townhall meeting). They were going to replace many RJ routes out of SLC--and the CVG guys have been trained and start SLC flights next month. Supposedly the last signature required to actually get a large batch of them is now "delayed" until the merger/acquisition stuff is straightened out. Nobody else in the US flies the MD90, and the airlines that have them overseas are still getting A320s to replace them. Looks like I was either right before, or will be correct soon. Have a great day.


Bye Bye--General Lee

 

[Speedtape]

Unlikely. We actually were going to buy a bunch of MD90s at firesale prices (rumored at $9 million each including engines--half the price of a CR9). You see, not all of the CR9 flights are going to be parked, only the ones that are not profitable during this slow time. (like SLC to BHM) It will probably restart during the Summer. But, many more 50 seaters will be parked, for several reasons, top among them high fuel and 50 seaters do not mix well. Just not enough seats (like an MD90) to spread out the costs. We are still one signature away from those MD90s, and they could be acquired to possibly replace some old DC9s if we happen to merge with NWA. There are plenty of ways we could use them, and we have the FTDs and Sim for them, along with mx expertise.

Bye Bye--General Lee

What will happen when demand diminishes and you don't have enough passengers to break even on the MD88?

High fuel costs will result in a recession. A recession will result in loss of jobs. Loss of jobs will result in a loss of consumer confidence. Loss of jobs and a loss in consumer confidence will result in a loss of demand. Lower seat costs in larger airplanes will not matter because there will not be enough demand to break even in a lot of current markets. Reduced capacity is the answer. This will be accomplished by reallocation of flying to smaller capacity airplanes to meet demand. RJs will be around no matter what the cost of gasoline. In fact, the higher the cost, the more downsizing or "right sizing" will occur.

 

[General Lee]

What will happen when demand diminishes and you don't have enough passengers to break even on the MD88?

High fuel costs will result in a recession. A recession will result in loss of jobs. Loss of jobs will result in a loss of consumer confidence. Loss of jobs and a loss in consumer confidence will result in a loss of demand. Lower seat costs in larger airplanes will not matter because there will not be enough demand to break even in a lot of current markets. Reduced capacity is the answer. This will be accomplished by reallocation of flying to smaller capacity airplanes to meet demand. RJs will be around no matter what the cost of gasoline. In fact, the higher the cost, the more downsizing or "right sizing" will occur.

The key here is that high gas also affects people driving long distances. If it costs too much to drive also, then people will fly. And, most of our passengers on the INTL side are foreigners, taking advantage of the weak dollar compared to the Euro and other currencies. We are full across the Atlantic and down south, with great yields. That is what is keeping the legacies together--their INTL revenue. LCCs without fuel hedges are the ones in trouble now. And your sense of right sizing is different than most analysts and even our CFO/President Ed Bastian. Again, we were one signature away from getting more MD90s, and the merger/acquisition stuff came up. They have even cross trained our CVG MD88 guys on the MD90--something that would not have happened if we weren't going to get extra MD90s. That is a fact, and there probably will always be a need for RJs, just not as many. Look for more turboprops if gas remains high too--Colgan and their Dash-8-400s would make a good fit on many routes in ATL that RJs and old AT7s fly now.

Bye Bye--General Lee

 

[FishandFly]

General, is it true that you have 2 logins you use simultaneously? 737Pylt and GL?

 

[John Pennekamp]

What will happen when demand diminishes and you don't have enough passengers to break even on the MD88?

High fuel costs will result in a recession. A recession will result in loss of jobs. Loss of jobs will result in a loss of consumer confidence. Loss of jobs and a loss in consumer confidence will result in a loss of demand. Lower seat costs in larger airplanes will not matter because there will not be enough demand to break even in a lot of current markets. Reduced capacity is the answer. This will be accomplished by reallocation of flying to smaller capacity airplanes to meet demand. RJs will be around no matter what the cost of gasoline. In fact, the higher the cost, the more downsizing or "right sizing" will occur.

What will happen is that people will cancel their trips.

Why can't this industry learn from the past?

In the post 9/11 recession, personal travel almost ceased, and business travel greatly diminished because business found cheaper alternatives such as teleconferencing to get things done. then when the business traveler came back, he demanded high frequency, and cheap fares, hence the RJ boom. He also explored the low cost carriers. Maddogs and 737s could not be filled, so Delta and the other legacy carriers "right sized" the route (remember that term?) by downgrading to an RJ.

Expect the same to happen in this next recession. RJs aren't going anywhere, they will only get larger, and 50 seaters will be replaced.

 

[IronCityBlue]

Expect the same to happen in this next recession. RJs aren't going anywhere, they will only get larger, and 50 seaters will be replaced.

If they get larger, then by definition smaller RJ's are going away. Are the same number of RJ's going to be replaced at regional carriers with larger RJ's, or will some mainlines begin to take that flying back? Is the 70 seater, or 86/90 seaters with 76 installed, large enough to fill the gap between "mainline" and "regional" flying? Is there a market for anything inbetween? If so, who will fly it? That's the heart of this discussion IMO.