Hawaiian Adding A321 Neos? Didn't See That One Coming...

[Old School 737]

I would have loved to see the 321 NEO at UAL. It is a far better product than that POS 737.

The thing hasn't even been built yet how do you know !!!

 

[cbrown1]

the 321 is a pig heavy.
If you've flown a crj in the summer it's pretty just like that. You kinda wonder what they will do with the neo.

 

[Grandpa +65]

the 321 is a pig heavy.
If you've flown a crj in the summer it's pretty just like that. You kinda wonder what they will do with the neo.

I agree that a321 is a pig heavy.
I have to wonder if the 321 could lift a full load plus 6 hours of fuel. It would be interesting to see what they claim a neo321 can do. Take off from Lihue's 5600 feet runway at max gross wt., climb to FL 370 and fly to LAX or SFO? Would be very challenging.

 

[Dan Roman]

Great news for HA. I know many of the rank and file are affraid their 2-day SJC's at widebody rates are going to be a thing of the past once this airplane gets online but I think in the grand scheme of things, it will be great for HA.

I think it gives Hawaiian the ultimate 1-2 punch with the West Coast. I think all but the West Coast trunk markets (LAX-HNL,SFO-HNL, SEA-HNL) revert to at least some NB's. You can free up the WB's to try some mid-continent/East Coast Domestic, not to mention some new international routes that you otherwise wouldn't have the equipment for if you were still using the WB for OAK-OGG. You can also upgauge different markets depending on the day of the week. It also gives Hawaiian an intermediate airplane for the interisland market on the days that the increased capacity is justified (i.e. Pro Bowl weekend).

Anyway, I think SWA's answer to this Hawaii question is going to be to stay out of it all together, as this is shaping up to be an impending blood bath. The real question is, what Alaska's response will be-if any. Will it be to run at the first drop of blood in the water, or does the eskimo keep a secret stash of "whop-ass" in that beard of his that he is just waiting to bust out...and waiting...and waiting...

I don't see AK running away by any means. It's a big market and none of us are ever going to have it all to ourselves. You guys jumped into the void created when AQ and ATA cratered and have taken that market to another level. It was inevitable that more direct flights to the outer islands was in the cards. As our customer base continues to grow, more and more of our pax will go direct to the outer islands rather than connect in HNL. That said, inter-island isn't going away, but we are changing the travel patterns some. I can't imagine that AK thinks they could "whop our ass", we are two different business plans. AK feeds itself for their customers who want to go to Hawaii. Were we have no problem filling airplanes wherever we go. That's Hawaiians plan all along. Pick a city were they can sell enough tickets to fill it up. With the NEO's we will obviously have a lot more flexibility for that, but I don't ever see any one airline trying to takeover any single market. There is plenty of room for multiple airlines. Especially when you consider the amount of legacy carriers to Hawaii keeps shrinking due to mergers.
Hawaiian actually gets a higher average yield between the West Coast and Hawaii than anyone else and has the lowest seat mile costs. Combined with their service reputation (much like AK's rep for good service) they have a very strong position. These NEO's will just take that one step further.
You maybe right that this shuts the door on SWA. Their former VP of Finance is now our CFO. So I'm sure HA has a good handle on what SWA would be thinking. AK is probably better off coexisting with Hawaiian in the market than going head to head with SWA. SWA would have been competing for the passengers with a similar travel pattern (mainland passengers being fed to the west coast and on to Hawaii) were we just do our own thing selling tickets to and from Hawaii.

 

[Dan Roman]

the 321 is a pig heavy.
If you've flown a crj in the summer it's pretty just like that. You kinda wonder what they will do with the neo.

I'm gonna go out on limb here and say they are going to put different engines on it

 

[igneousy2]

I can't imagine that AK thinks they could "whop our ass", we are two different business plans.

Sorry...that comment was meant to be sarcastic and not directed at HA per say. I guess it came across wrong.

Although Alaska has done extremely well financially, I am glad for that, and Alaska's conservatism has served them well at times, but sometimes it seems that they are conservative to a fault, where we have missed some very good opportunities.

The ongoing opportunity right now that we are wasting away is our freight operation, we are the dominant carrier in the number one in the number one international freight hub in the US, and we will not take actions to bring our freight from a mere footnote in our financial results to be a force in the US cargo market.

You see Alaska kicking butt in Hawaii now, but what you didn't see is the YEARS of hemming and hahing about how there is no "money in Hawaii".

They ended up looking like a bunch of geniuses, but they had made the business decision to go to Hawaii long before AQ was murdered...it was a work in progress for years. ANC-HNL & SEA-HNL were going to happen regardless. When AQ and ATA went out of business, they happened to be in a great situation. It might appear to casual observers that AS saw this great opportunity and pounced and we grew our network to take advantage of the opportunity. What actually happened (at least initially) is we were getting killed in some of our north/south west coast routes and we re-deployed the airplanes to Hawaii. Instead of going 12 times a day to every LA basin airport from SEA we now go 5-8 times a day.

My prediction based on Alaskas passed reaction to direct competition is that once HA gets their airbuses and starts competing with us directly, with the exception with flights between ANC, SEA, PDX, and SAN (???) you will see AS pull back and probably re-deploy the airplanes. My guess from management rumblings right now is that our new "market" by then will probably be Centrail America.

 

[Dan Roman]

No worries nor offense taken. All our managements do compete and to a certain degree all our fate hinges on that. But like I said, there will always be multiple airlines flying to Hawaii.
I'm off to the union briefing on the NEO's, I'll post any interesting info, provided it's not top secret of course!

 

[cbrown1]

I'm gonna go out on limb here and say they are going to put different engines on it

They need to put a new wing on it. That's the real problem with it.

 

[Dan Roman]

They need to put a new wing on it. That's the real problem with it.

Interesting enough, turns out that is exactly the difference with the NEO. The question was asked at the meeting I just went too about when the airplane would be available. The answer was they only are changing the wing and the engines so they didn't expect any delays. You get an A in aerodynamics!

 

[Mea25000]

whats up with HA's stock today?

 

[ackattacker]

Interesting enough, turns out that is exactly the difference with the NEO. The question was asked at the meeting I just went too about when the airplane would be available. The answer was they only are changing the wing and the engines so they didn't expect any delays. You get an A in aerodynamics!

I think cbrown was implying they need to put a *bigger* wing on it. AFAIK the only significant change the A321neo brings aerodynamically is the addition of "sharklets".

I have seen range projections from 3,450nm to 3,650nm for the A321neo. It is enough to reach the West Coast which is obviously what they are going for.

EDIT: just read n757st 's comment and while he estimates 3100nm realistic for the neo, that's still more than enough. HNL-LAX is 2221nm direct distance and HNL-SFO is only 2084nm. Seattle is 2326nm.

 

[blade230]

whats up with HA's stock today?

Good question!!

 

[BentOver]

Whatever the numbers may or may not be.. I'm sure someone at Hawaiian has looked at them, conferred with Airbus, and decided it was atleast doable... I doubt they agreed to buy the a/c without doing one bit of research on the stage length in mind

The deliveries would still be a few years down the road, hopefully it all pans out.

 

[Dan Roman]

Whatever the numbers may or may not be.. I'm sure someone at Hawaiian has looked at them, conferred with Airbus, and decided it was atleast doable... I doubt they agreed to buy the a/c without doing one bit of research on the stage length in mind

The deliveries would still be a few years down the road, hopefully it all pans out.

I went to the briefing and they had all the numbers and they worked fine for anything we would use it for. Full load out of OGG and LIH. It was discussed in detail and in fact we have it guaranteed in the deal. If it didn't perform as advertised we get a full refund. They had the numbers for the the Boeings from Boeing. The 737 900 can only carry an 84% load factor out of OGG and about 72% out of LIH. In other words the 737 900 ER is not a viable airplane for Hawaii. 800 works 900 doesn't.

 

[Dan Roman]

Good question!!

+1 The Airbus deal according to all the analysts seems to be getting two thumbs up. We just reported 10% increase in traffic.
It could be profit taking as it traded very heavy after a run up.

If you like conspiracy theories, I read somewhere that Merril Lynch posted a downgrade. The way they did it smells of stock manipulation. Who knows. The company is doing very well, nothing has changed except a solid plan for profitable growth has been introduced.

 

[Metrojet]

I went to the briefing and they had all the numbers and they worked fine for anything we would use it for. Full load out of OGG and LIH. It was discussed in detail and in fact we have it guaranteed in the deal. If it didn't perform as advertised we get a full refund. They had the numbers for the the Boeings from Boeing. The 737 900 can only carry an 84% load factor out of OGG and about 72% out of LIH. In other words the 737 900 ER is not a viable airplane for Hawaii. 800 works 900 doesn't.

Hey Dan
Could you post those numbers on the 321neo - the standard 321-200 is very under powered at hot temps and high gw.

Metrojet

 

[igneousy2]

I went to the briefing and they had all the numbers and they worked fine for anything we would use it for. Full load out of OGG and LIH. It was discussed in detail and in fact we have it guaranteed in the deal. If it didn't perform as advertised we get a full refund. They had the numbers for the the Boeings from Boeing. The 737 900 can only carry an 84% load factor out of OGG and about 72% out of LIH. In other words the 737 900 ER is not a viable airplane for Hawaii. 800 works 900 doesn't.

Just to clarify, are you speaking of the 737NG's or the MAX's. I know the 900 NG's definetly won't work for all the Hawaii markets, I was wondering if an analysis was done on the MAX's. I don't know if it even makes a difference at all.

 

[Dan Roman]

Just to clarify, are you speaking of the 737NG's or the MAX's. I know the 900 NG's definetly won't work for all the Hawaii markets, I was wondering if an analysis was done on the MAX's. I don't know if it even makes a difference at all.

It was for the Max. The numbers are from what Boeing presented to us.

 

[Dan Roman]

Hey Dan
Could you post those numbers on the 321neo - the standard 321-200 is very under powered at hot temps and high gw.

Metrojet

Sorry, it was a slide show so I can't give you the exact figures. But it out performed the 737 900 max pretty easily. It sounds like the new motors and wing change should address that.

 

[dash8driver]

Sorry, it was a slide show so I can't give you the exact figures. But it out performed the 737 900 max pretty easily. It sounds like the new motors and wing change should address that.

Dan,

From what I understand the planes presented were 737-700, -800, and -900. The -900 is not the 737Max. The Max family are numbered 737-7, 737-8 and 737-9. Was there some mix up in the presentation?

 

[BentOver]

I went to the briefing and they had all the numbers and they worked fine for anything we would use it for. Full load out of OGG and LIH. It was discussed in detail and in fact we have it guaranteed in the deal. If it didn't perform as advertised we get a full refund. They had the numbers for the the Boeings from Boeing. The 737 900 can only carry an 84% load factor out of OGG and about 72% out of LIH. In other words the 737 900 ER is not a viable airplane for Hawaii. 800 works 900 doesn't.

Hey Dan,

I wish I would have had a chance to go. Couldn't make it... I am amazed at all the aerospace engineers on this board who know the exact specs of an a/c that hasn't been put out yet...And then those same people assuming that Hawaiian would NOT do any research to make sure it would be able to go across the Pacific (maybe they don't realize that's pretty much all Hawaian does is cross the Pacific?)

 

[Dan Roman]

Dan,

From what I understand the planes presented were 737-700, -800, and -900. The -900 is not the 737Max. The Max family are numbered 737-7, 737-8 and 737-9. Was there some mix up in the presentation?

Actually I'm just recalling from the slide show, I don't know a whole lot about the different models. I was just surprised to see that the 900 proposed to us wouldn't work for Hawaii. I assumed they were talking the Max. I know Boeing was trying to sell us the Max. To be honest, I didn't pay all that much attention to the Boeing part of the discussion as obviously it doesn't effect us. Safe to the NEO looks like a good plane for the market.

 

[Dan Roman]

Hey Dan,

I wish I would have had a chance to go. Couldn't make it... I am amazed at all the aerospace engineers on this board who know the exact specs of an a/c that hasn't been put out yet...And then those same people assuming that Hawaiian would NOT do any research to make sure it would be able to go across the Pacific (maybe they don't realize that's pretty much all Hawaian does is cross the Pacific?)

I'm sure you'll hear all the info. Good presentation, looks good for us and it's been well thought out by the company. The union seems on top of the deal. You may appreciate the part were we plan on a 1000 pilots by 2020 with the acquisition of these airplanes. They will be used for TransPac and a few mid day Inter-island flights were even today we can't accommodate the demand with our current 717 flights.

 

[lanilila]

Heard a rumor about Hawaiian looking at using 717 on the west coast to connect their passengers on the mainland to other cities? Sounds far fetched but anyone heard this?

 

[Flyby1206]

Heard a rumor about Hawaiian looking at using 717 on the west coast to connect their passengers on the mainland to other cities? Sounds far fetched but anyone heard this?

Better chance of those 717s winding up at DAL than having HA hub them in LAX/SFO or somewhere.

The west coast short haul market is saturated and fractured among many carriers. Ugly situation. HA has plenty of partner airlines that provide great feed (UA, US, DL, AA, B6, VX)

 

[Dan Roman]

Flyby is correct. No one here is saying that that I know of. It's a typical rumor that would get started when people hear we are getting small bus's and than it morphs into A320's inter-island. They are firmly committed to the 717 inter-island till at least 2020.

 

[bri5150]

Heard a rumor about Hawaiian looking at using 717 on the west coast to connect their passengers on the mainland to other cities? Sounds far fetched but anyone heard this?

Codeshare, possibly more with Virgin America.

 

[Dan Roman]

Flyby is correct. No one here is saying that that I know of. It's a typical rumor that would get started when people hear we are getting small bus's and than it morphs into A320's inter-island. They are firmly committed to the 717 inter-island till at least 2020.

and before anyone says it, yes we did negotiate inter island rates for the A/C, but it was made clear that is for flying them to supplement the 717 fleet, not replace them.

 

[msmb]

What about the 900er with the 27k bump engines? In/out of ogg and lih?

 

[igneousy2]

What about the 900er with the 27k bump engines? In/out of ogg and lih?

The 800 and the 900 ER both can take about the same weight out of both LIH and OGG since you are runway limited...about 165-170K LBS.

On the 900ER, more of this weight is in the longer airframe so your actual possible load is less. This makes flights to the west coast less efficient with a 900ER as compared to an 800 except on the days where the winds aloft are exceptionally strong, lessening the fuel requirement, and therefore, letting you take advantage of some of the 24 extra seats. You can usually take a full boat out on the 800. You will always restrict seats on the 900ER.

The MAX/9 has a 28K engine option. Since it's a bigger engine pushing the same wing, I would imagine you can take some additional weight out of LIH/OGG as compared to the 800/900. Couple that with the fact that the fuel required should decrease by 10% if Boeing hits their numbers, which would be about 4K LBS, then maybe the /9 becomes more viable for LIH/OGG-Bay Area. Even if you have to restrict 15 seats on a MAX/9 that is still 9 more seats than an 800.