Get ready for Age 67+

[flyboyike]

Wasn't the original argument that these guys needed "more time" to make up for lost pensions, access to health care, social security, etc.?

I've just seen most of these guys collect a bigger mortgage, another ex, and a 3rd car these last several years...

And a fifth boat.

 

[Andy]

Both of you are out of touch with what is going on.

The ATP/1500 rule is federal law, and would have to be amended to change.

Rest rules, who knows.

The regionals are having a hell of a time filling classes.

DOH! You are correct; I stand corrected. I show 1 Aug 2013 as implementation date. Is the FAA phasing this rule in over the next couple years? http://www.atpflightschool.com/airl.../1500-hour-rule/1500-hour-rule-explained.html

That'll get interesting. And bad news for those of us who don't want to see an age increase.

 

[laker4284]

Here ya go boys...
http://www.pprune.org/rumours-news/422783-age-70-international-pilots.html

This is your proof of a movement to age 70? A comment from 14 months ago on a rumor forum? If you sniff around a bit on Google, other search venues and chat with some of those who had some fingers in the pie you'd be relieved to know there is mo credible effort to change the age rule in this country. Maybe in the future, meaning years and years down the road. Maybe.

There's a lot of misinformation about age and pilots on this thread.

 

[Andy]

This is your proof of a movement to age 70? A comment from 14 months ago on a rumor forum? If you sniff around a bit on Google, other search venues and chat with some of those who had some fingers in the pie you'd be relieved to know there is mo credible effort to change the age rule in this country. Maybe in the future, meaning years and years down the road. Maybe.

There's a lot of misinformation about age and pilots on this thread.

Laker, I'm strongly opposed to any age increases. But this iteration will be different than the last age increase because the pilots will not be the impetus of another age change.
I've briefly illustrated why it's in management's best interest (huge reduction in training costs) and politicians' best interests (delayed social security/medicare payments) along with the fact that there have been no hull losses.
You may think that ALPO will fight another age increase tooth and nail. They may publicly. But I doubt that's what they'll say behind closed doors; in fact, they will likely supply congressional aides with talking points for another age increase.
I understand your skepticism. But that's the way the game's played in DC. I've been there and have had enough personal contacts to know how things really work.

The best argument for the anti-change crowd (me + many others) is to accept an incremental change rather than making a single large change. I think that a strong case could be built around an incremental change.

 

[Fubijaakr]

Hilarious.

So are cartoons and bedtime stories. This story is probably as fictional as those.

Which ostensibly means that the US can't be less restrictive than ICAO. We can be more restrictive than ICAO (e g have a lower age limit) all we want.

The problem with that is you run into a conundrum: Foreign airline Captains OVER age 65 will be allowed to exercise their licenses in US airspace. US Captains over 65 will be forbidden the same right/privilege by law.

Is that fair? You honestly mean to tell me you'd support that?

 

[Andy]

The problem with that is you run into a conundrum: Foreign airline Captains OVER age 65 will be allowed to exercise their licenses in US airspace. US Captains over 65 will be forbidden the same right/privilege by law.

Is that fair? You honestly mean to tell me you'd support that?

Fubi, rather than a lag between US ages increasing and ICAO ages increasing, I'd expect to see a more coordinated effort with the IATA as a driving force. I'd venture to guess that most pilots are unaware of the IATA, what they do, and who they represent. http://www.iata.org
There will be some concerns on how far the age can be increased which is why an incremental change would be the more palatable choice for all parties.

 

[Fubijaakr]

Agreed.

 

[Flopgut]

No, old guys retire and young guys become old guys and adapt to the conditions as they exist, or else they don't retire (from an airline job at least).



Go back to watching movies with your suspiciously nervous cat.

It's as though you want to be dumped into Obamacare?!

When I use the term pragmatic, I'm not trying to complement you. I know it's not the best term. But you are far too accepting of satisfactory in place of actual improvement.

There is a better way to do a lot of things. This profession is backward due to the lack of worker renewal. Look at how advanced the aircraft we all fly have gotten? Compare that with how we go to work and how we are paid. It's reactionary types like you that are holding us all back. I'd like to help you do the right thing and see increase.

Additionally, how are you so sure there won't be any new money to be made? The Chinese alone are going to hire 20k+ new pilots in the next ten years. Worldwide supply and demand will be a driver. You can make the age whatever you want, and you can whine and complain about being discriminated against, but you will not tell foreign carriers to hire pilots who are over 60. Let alone 65. So maybe you're too old to look to that sort of future? Too bad. At the wages you think we're stuck at right now, there won't be a US airline that can keep their pilots. It will be 5-8 years and you're still going to have be be fairly young, but there will be some opportunity.

 

[Fubijaakr]

Floppy,

You should head off to China to catch the front end of the hiring wave.

 

[Flopgut]

Probably will. But I'm not not quite done here. Understand that I want to vote on my contract first. Despite the best efforts of aged backbiters like you, I'm going to try and improve things. Failing that, there is a not too remote chance I will get to strike. Which will be a very good thing! I will leave. Pretty sure the old guys will hang on and keep it afloat (probably your plan, right?). Good for them; I wouldn't begrudge them that. All they have is a few short years. They can use them to clean up after my strike. Of course they won't have any work rules, and they will be chained to the oars for about 30% pay. Won't be pretty for old guys. But I'll sure enjoy watching it. It's going to be priceless to see pilots who are even more broke at 65 than they were at 60 begging anyone to let them fly longer.

 

[list2002]

Understand that training is soooo expensive, but the cost for the gummers per amount they fly has got to be pretty high, plus double the currency training per year, plus the staffing nightmare with having to award seniority, and STILL staff enough under 60 pilots to the senior airframes... Some might argue majors would want to flush the old out and start over with a jr payscale roster, and desperate pilots trying to make up for the 5 year loss of pay (at least after they have them vote to break scope for a sweet bailout deal).
I don't think the majors will ever have a pilot shortage, but the regionals they whipsaw against each other and use to outsource our flying may have trouble in the near future. With a few contracts due or upcoming it may be in their best interest to keep the regionals well staffed via age change, but I pray nothing happens that fast. On my side they'll probably just park planes rather than hire.
Also possible scenario is not to raise age to INVOKE a pilot shortage to then argue and throw money to congress for letting mgmnts El Salvadorian pilot reserves unit (which is currently in training) to come in and fly for $1500 pre tax and free board.

 

[Dumb Pilot]

Which ostensibly means that the US can't be less restrictive than ICAO. We can be more restrictive than ICAO (e g have a lower age limit) all we want.

ICAO is an organization that serves as a forum for their members to come in agreement of the use of international airspaces and the rules they will operate across borders that is all. If one of their member nations wants to set the retirement age at 50 or 80, it is up to that nation regulatory agency to dictate the rules they will operate under.

 

[Bringupthebird]

It's as though you want to be dumped into Obamacare?!

No one will want to be, but the die was cast when a majority bit on the "Hope and Change" hook. Too late now.

When I use the term pragmatic, I'm not trying to complement you. I know it's not the best term. But you are far too accepting of satisfactory in place of actual improvement.

There is a better way to do a lot of things. This profession is backward due to the lack of worker renewal. Look at how advanced the aircraft we all fly have gotten? Compare that with how we go to work and how we are paid. It's reactionary types like you that are holding us all back. I'd like to help you do the right thing and see increase.

Again, you think that the historically high pay rates you nostalgically pine simply always were. That's understandable for someone with little memory. However those rates came about through the sacrifice and courage of pilots who reacted to the opportunity to fully exploit the power labor had when the balance was in their favor. Those conditions were ripe during the halcyon days of growth and market share capture. The cost of a generous contract was the price of admission to such a booming industry. That doesn't mean that the contracts were attained without strikes or the viable threat of them, but management's knew all too well the consequences of a punishing strike and that a cooperative CAB would gladly allow them to recoup such cost increases. So wages climbed.

You want to create that same leverage today when it doesn't exist. Leverage is not a matter of will, but a proper response to the conditions at hand, many of which are beyond the control of pilots. To give a physical example, the pilots do not make the lever, nor are they given a say in where to push, but they can decide how hard to push.

The pragmatist won't waste efforts with grandstanding displays that pretend to reincarnate labor's glory days. This is a career man, not a classic car show. We are in an industry that scarcely resembles the Golden Age of Airline Travel and it demands clear realistic thinking, and when appropriate, action; not the strident anthems and insults of those who really don't know the whole story.

 

[Flopgut]

BringuptheBird: I think you have Stockholm Syndrom. (I've told you that before I believe) You are only speaking to FAR121 domestic passenger flying. (It's pretty obvous you don't fly much international, or you don't go very far) We have a tough industry that rapidly changes, but the way you characterize it you sounds like you're trying to convince me the world is flat. I'm pretty sure the only reason you carry on like this is because you have just enough pilots below you, who's future you can deal on, to try and get ahead. That's your brand of pragmatism; Carry on with the old coping mechanisms. Don't flatter yourself and think you are the other kind of pragmatic with wisdom and experience. This has been too big a downturn to not have some form of boom after. The opportunities will look a little different, but they will be there.

 

[Bringupthebird]

For those who may not be aware, before you get too teary-eyed at Flopgut's "poor me" stories, remember that he has bypassed his upgrade in the past and is likely not even directly affected by the retirement age change. He likes to pretend he is on the side of the oppressed to garner either sympathy or popularity.

Hey, that sounds like someone using Stockholm Syndrome to control their victims! Bravo Flopgut, bravo!