Future regional aircraft

[Flyerdan]

Yeah, I work at ASA.

The relevant factors are:

- they can't do domestic feed as cheap as outsourced labor can.

- being able to whipsaw different airlines makes it even cheaper.

- they need bigger airplanes to take advantage of lower CASM and fuel efficiencies

They have to get the pilots to give up scope to make it work.

The way they could do it would be to offer an ultimatum:

Take a large pay increase to give up scope altogether and become widebody only pilots. The retirements and international growth would support that and leave everyone with a seat in a bigger airplane.

Or...

Get NOTHING and DAL spends the hundreds of millions to billions to fleet itself with RJs and pilots to bring it's domestic feed operation in-house.

I'm thinking that given the choice, the DAL group would vote itself a raise and a widebody seat over simply enlarging it's pilot group with newhires that are on the RJs.

Like I said, we'll see how it plays out.

If you were a DAL pilot and presented with those options, it would be completely stupid to pick option 2...it gets you NOTHING and costs an arm and a leg.

I think you are probably pretty close to stating WHAT WILL happen instead of talking about what pilots think SHOULD HAPPEN. I have seen quite a few posts about taking back scope, etc. but there is never even a hint in the discussion about what the pilots are willing to give up to achieve that goal. This leads me to believe that it is mostly empty talk and that you are closer to the reality of the industry. Nice post.

 

[time builder]

Don't forget the Jet Blue/American deal in New York. If the biggest goal is regional feed, they can do it via code sharing with discount carriers rather than scope clause limited outsourcing.

 

[Flyerdan]

Don't forget the Jet Blue/American deal in New York. If the biggest goal is regional feed, they can do it via code sharing with discount carriers rather than scope clause limited outsourcing.

BINGO!!

I think that is the other piece of the puzzle that not many people are talking about. I think regional airlines like Skywest, Republic, etc., will soon morph into super-regionals and enter into code share agreements with the mainline airlines they currently have fee-for-departure agreements with. This will pave the way for the 100 seat regional aircraft that loom on the horizon for these super regional airlines of the future.

This is pure speculation but it makes a lot of sense from a business model perspective.

 

[Hootie9750]

Most likely the same stuff that is flying today. Mainline pilots will vote for expanded scope relief, so probably the 737 and the baby bus will also become "RJ's"

 

[General Lee]

Most likely the same stuff that is flying today. Mainline pilots will vote for expanded scope relief, so probably the 737 and the baby bus will also become "RJ's"

Riiiiight. And at the same time, (in your world) Regional pilots will all vote to abandon every RJ and only fly BE1900s. Yeah, that will be FANTASTIC to see. PSSSST. I will let you in on a little secret. All you have to look at is the CAL/UAL ALPA arbitration win for the current sentiment of mainline pilots. They don't like RJs at all.


Bye Bye---General Lee

 

[General Lee]

Yeah, I work at ASA.

The relevant factors are:

- they can't do domestic feed as cheap as outsourced labor can.

- being able to whipsaw different airlines makes it even cheaper.

- they need bigger airplanes to take advantage of lower CASM and fuel efficiencies

They have to get the pilots to give up scope to make it work.

The way they could do it would be to offer an ultimatum:

Take a large pay increase to give up scope altogether and become widebody only pilots. The retirements and international growth would support that and leave everyone with a seat in a bigger airplane.

Or...

Get NOTHING and DAL spends the hundreds of millions to billions to fleet itself with RJs and pilots to bring it's domestic feed operation in-house.

I'm thinking that given the choice, the DAL group would vote itself a raise and a widebody seat over simply enlarging it's pilot group with newhires that are on the RJs.

Like I said, we'll see how it plays out.

If you were a DAL pilot and presented with those options, it would be completely stupid to pick option 2...it gets you NOTHING and costs an arm and a leg.

John, still smoking dope I see. I can't believe you haven't been caught yet. Probably no supervision on naps to Golden Triangle....

We already have the bigger airplanes here BTW. Mainline planes are more profitable because they have more seats, even though you guys (outsourced labor) are cheaper per hour. Your RJs are actually getting more and more expensive as oil stays high. Your planes cannot compete against Airtran 717s on the same routes, meaning your planes have to go on out of the way or strange routes (like recently announced ALB and PVD to RDU for Flagship) to try to find revenue. How long do you think those will last? My bet, those planes will be in the boneyard 5 months later probably. And because of recent stagnation due to lack of hiring at majors, your FOs are higher paid than normal years (when there was hiring), increasing your normal costs. Longevity is bad for regional costs.

Sure, whipsaw makes it cheaper, but new hiring rules (1500 min or via an approved University program) will again raise costs, and work and rest rule changes due to new fatigue rules by the FAA will again increase your costs and hit at your efficiency.

Do we really have to "give up" anything in a restoration contract? You have to remember, we have leverage because of the large profits currently, and we are aiming to RESTORE things that were taken. You don't really have to give up much when a lot was already taken in BK. No give and take here really. More like give BACK to us.

I have a feeling we will all be watching the CAL/UAL guys in their fight, and it doesn't look like they will be giving in on anything scope related. If they don't get a joint contract soon, I have a feeling things may get a bit bumpy over there. I know the lead DL negotiator, and the good thing is he is not an old fart, rather a younger guy who is very PRO-Scope. I don't know if we could just "go after" all RJs initially, but I would think maybe the E175s first, and then watch the CRJ-200s die on their own, leaving CR7s and CR9s for the next round. At best that means stagnation for you. Sorry about that. SCOPE is important, and it's time for you to understand that. Heck, the Comair guys went for pay only in their 2000 contract and strike, and look where they are now, almost down to 49 total planes. I think most people understand that now. You will too someday. And, you won't see my Hot (young) wife on any RJ flight, she's too scared to fly on your planes. She does love my 757 and 767, though.


Bye Bye--General Lee

 

[General Lee]

I think you are probably pretty close to stating WHAT WILL happen instead of talking about what pilots think SHOULD HAPPEN. I have seen quite a few posts about taking back scope, etc. but there is never even a hint in the discussion about what the pilots are willing to give up to achieve that goal. This leads me to believe that it is mostly empty talk and that you are closer to the reality of the industry. Nice post.

Hi Dan. AGAIN, this is a restoration contract. Not much give and take. A lot was taken from us in BK, and thanks to recent profitabiltiy, it will be tougher for DL to cry "poor." Also, the DL CEO really has been backing off of RJs since he started his post. He touts parking RJs in his quarterly web sessions with analysts. Sure, there are some routes that still need RJs, but the merger with NWA has actually given DL as a whole a variety of aircraft to try on any route. Just look at ATL, there are now DC9s, A319s, and up on different routes. I can't believe the variety of planes now, and that is loved by the VP of Route Planning supposedly.

Look at the current consolidation in the Regionals. The Pinnacle group buys Colgan and Mesaba. SkyWest buys Xpressjet and ASA. Everyone is trying to get extra mass because they are scared of losing feed. Even with their mass though, there still are a few big regionals, (Republic too) and that still means whipsaw. Throw in new FAA rest/fatigue rules, and new hiring requirements, and that will be interesting to watch too.


Bye Bye---General Lee

 

[ePilot22]

Hi Dan. AGAIN, this is a restoration contract. Not much give and take. A lot was taken from us in BK, and thanks to recent profitabiltiy, it will be tougher for DL to cry "poor." Also, the DL CEO really has been backing off of RJs since he started his post. He touts parking RJs in his quarterly web sessions with analysts. Sure, there are some routes that still need RJs, but the merger with NWA has actually given DL as a whole a variety of aircraft to try on any route. Just look at ATL, there are now DC9s, A319s, and up on different routes. I can't believe the variety of planes now, and that is loved by the VP of Route Planning supposedly.

Look at the current consolidation in the Regionals. The Pinnacle group buys Colgan and Mesaba. SkyWest buys Xpressjet and ASA. Everyone is trying to get extra mass because they are scared of losing feed. Even with their mass though, there still are a few big regionals, (Republic too) and that still means whipsaw. Throw in new FAA rest/fatigue rules, and new hiring requirements, and that will be interesting to watch too.


Bye Bye---General Lee

Hi Dan, it's me, jenny lee. I'm going to talk. Just talk. I'm going to tell you all the reason why we haven't done anything to recapture scope and how it isn't possible to do it right now. I'm going to continue talking without ever acting. Hopefully, if I say it often enough, oh, about 14,000 times, it will be true. Your RJ flying is going away. Your job sucks. You know, you really suck. Enjoy your sucky career, err job, at your regional.

You guys are all I fantasize about all the time. Keep up the good work.

Oh and eP has vD.




tah tah---jenny lee

 

[ePilot22]

Hi Dan. AGAIN, this is a restoration contract. Not much give and take. A lot was taken from us in BK, and thanks to recent profitabiltiy, it will be tougher for DL to cry "poor." Also, the DL CEO really has been backing off of RJs since he started his post. He touts parking RJs in his quarterly web sessions with analysts. Sure, there are some routes that still need RJs, but the merger with NWA has actually given DL as a whole a variety of aircraft to try on any route. Just look at ATL, there are now DC9s, A319s, and up on different routes. I can't believe the variety of planes now, and that is loved by the VP of Route Planning supposedly.

Look at the current consolidation in the Regionals. The Pinnacle group buys Colgan and Mesaba. SkyWest buys Xpressjet and ASA. Everyone is trying to get extra mass because they are scared of losing feed. Even with their mass though, there still are a few big regionals, (Republic too) and that still means whipsaw. Throw in new FAA rest/fatigue rules, and new hiring requirements, and that will be interesting to watch too.


Bye Bye---General Lee

Hi jenny. It's P R O F I T A B I L I T Y.







eP.

 

[ePilot22]

No give and take here really. More like give BACK to us.

And you're accusing someone else of smoking dope.

I'm sure management just can't wait to GIVE you everything back. Do us all a favor and hold your breath until they GIVE it back.

Good ********************ing luck!




eP.