Future pilot shortage...

[pilotyip]

Can you teach a 250 wonder how to fly a profile in a CRJ? Absolutely! Get back to me when they are in the right seat flying an approach in the dead of winter into GRR to mins with blowing snow and crazy crosswinds with a full load of passengers. This job requires a certain attention to detail, there are all sorts of Mx/Px/Wx and routing considerations every single flight. If you don't know your limitations and the limitations of the aircraft you are flying bad things will happen. Don't even try and tell me flying a piston a/c and flying a fully loaded turbofan at F370 and M.80 are the same thing. It has nothing to do with ego and everything to do with experience and time at the yoke!

It can be done, look at the military the 350 hr is flying on to a boat at night in IFR rain, how does he do it? He trains to do it.

 

[ASA_Aviator]

There never has been and never will be a pilot shortage, period. Even the Wright Flyer had twice as many pilots as it had seats.

Regional airlines will never be more than a few months behind the staffing curve.

They only need to find a few willing candidates with no felony convictions and access to money, and presto! Zero to hero in a few months. Oh wait, " We fixed it"

Sounds nice, but it just ain't true.

You guys are all arguing about semantics. Some of you mean shortage defined as, "regional airlines are unable to staff the airline." Those people will be proven correct, I'm afraid.

Others of you define shortage as, "lack of people in the world able to do the job." While it may be true that there isn't going to be a shortage of this type, it isn't relevant to the discussion. All that matters to the regional airline management is whether they can fill the seat, and it won't be long before they can't.

In 2007 we couldn't fill the classes. That's a shortage. It was just delayed due to the economy and age 65.

Continue your pointless semantic arguments, I guess, but the fact remains that all that really matters is if there are flights cancelled due to lack of ability to hire pilots soon.

 

[flyboyzii]

The interesting thing about aviation is that the complexity and technical aspects are highly variable. If one chooses to operate in an environment with minimal demands (and in some cases, supervised), I think a reasonable level of safety can be accomplished with an average or even somewhat mediocre pilot. If one desires to have a much higher technical understanding, or to operate in a much more challenging environment that is intolerant of mediocrity, it is very easy to do so (as the NTSB database so clearly shows).

I used to work as a mechanical engineer in a fairly demanding field, so I see what you're attempting to say. But the problem is your perspective is one sided. You've yet to cross over to a more challenging segment of professional aviation, and apparently believe that your limited experience of Seneca flying is typical of professional aviation. You say "...it is what it is". I say: You don't know, what you don't know.

More importantly, you appear to be crossing over to a couple of the hazardous attitudes you may remember from the FOI: Macho and Invulnerability. Your online persona conveys that you've seen it all and are above this simple act of flying. I could of course be misinterpreting what you're writing, but you clearly aren't very humble about your limited experiences. That's not a good trait in a pilot.

Very, very well said. Thank you

 

[pilotyip]

Sounds nice, but it just ain't true.

You guys are all arguing about semantics. Some of you mean shortage defined as, "regional airlines are unable to staff the airline." Those people will be proven correct, I'm afraid.

Others of you define shortage as, "lack of people in the world able to do the job." While it may be true that there isn't going to be a shortage of this type, it isn't relevant to the discussion. All that matters to the regional airline management is whether they can fill the seat, and it won't be long before they can't.

In 2007 we couldn't fill the classes. That's a shortage. It was just delayed due to the economy and age 65.

Continue your pointless semantic arguments, I guess, but the fact remains that all that really matters is if there are flights cancelled due to lack of ability to hire pilots soon.

I think it will get worse, the impact of turnover to be generated by the age 65 retirements starting in about 20 months has not yet been fully felt. I call it the 2012 hiring boom, it has already started. Where will it go? Higher wages? Who will pay for these? The flying public, will the marginal flier elect to fly at those prices? Higher prices for fuel are already making the smaller RJ's cost ineffective, will this mean the end of the 50-70- seat airplane? Will it mean the Jet for trips under 500 miles now that we have nearly 400 Kt T-props. Will there be a balancing of jobs and pilots available as people going into flying declines? Will the hiring boom have people flocking to flight schools to get into this industry? A lot of unknowns.

 

[kf4amu]

It can be done, look at the military the 350 hr is flying on to a boat at night in IFR rain, how does he do it? He trains to do it.

you cannot compare a military aviator to the typical commuter pilot. The military selects the best of the best, not people that barely squeek by.

That's why they can do it at 350 hrs...ability, skill and attitude. Typical entry level airline pilots don't even compare

 

[ASA_Aviator]

you cannot compare a military aviator to the typical commuter pilot. The military selects the best of the best, not people that barely squeek by.

That's why they can do it at 350 hrs...ability, skill and attitude. Typical entry level airline pilots don't even compare

Hahahahahaha. Wow.

If the airlines paid for training, they could be just as selective.

 

[pilotyip]

Hahahahahaha. Wow.

If the airlines paid for training, they could be just as selective.

And used the equivalent of a ACT 27 as a minimum to start flight training

 

[cynic]

I agree on military pilots. The bar for entry is much higher. It is not the case any bard tard can get through.

My point to the flying fratboy nimrods is that; if it is the case you keep having to use your 'extreme' skill to get out of life threatening situations, you are a bad pilot and you have bad judgment.

While there are exceedingly rare circumstances where super human flying skills matter, those cases are so rare it's irrelevant. No more relevant than extreme super awesome driving skills that would be useful on the interstate if you are presented with some bizarre situation where performing at rolling 360 on two wheels will actually matter.

And if you are interested.... I actually work on a joint research project with the institute for molecular biophysics and one of the country's largest super computing facilities to produce 3d renderings of molecular structures. I'm not too worried about someone in India picking up my job

Although I am generally surprised no airline has managed to fly domestic routes here in the US with low cost pilots.

 

[bri5150]

I agree on military pilots. The bar for entry is much higher. It is not the case any bard tard can get through.

My point to the flying fratboy nimrods is that; if it is the case you keep having to use your 'extreme' skill to get out of life threatening situations, you are a bad pilot and you have bad judgment.

While there are exceedingly rare circumstances where super human flying skills matter, those cases are so rare it's irrelevant. No more relevant than extreme super awesome driving skills that would be useful on the interstate if you are presented with some bizarre situation where performing at rolling 360 on two wheels will actually matter.

And if you are interested.... I actually work on a joint research project with the institute for molecular biophysics and one of the country's largest super computing facilities to produce 3d renderings of molecular structures. I'm not too worried about someone in India picking up my job

Although I am generally surprised no airline has managed to fly domestic routes here in the US with low cost pilots.

"Any tard with a credit card" can go get a college education to learn molecular biophysics and computers. Get over yourself. Are you saying that an Indian isn't smart enough to learn those subjects? Your job is easier to outsource to India than a pilot's. At least to outsource us they have to physical move a human being across the Pacific Ocean every time they come to work (At this point anyways).

 

[cynic]

"Any tard with a credit card" can go get a college education to learn molecular biophysics and computers.

Hmmm.... I don't think so. For example, you'd need a degree in Biology and a score on GRE that put you in top 5% just to get into the program. As an example, at our University where there are perhaps several thousand people in the business school there are 8 that are majoring in scientific computing.

Now I do agree that 'any tard with a credit card' can go get a degree. Say in something like communications, marketing, aviation management or criminology. Not that those are subjects that are not worth studying. It's just they are significantly easier to study!

I can tell it upsets you that I would imply flying airplanes is easy and fun. Does it make you angry to imply that?