ExpressJet branded flying

[Superpilot92]

Well I don't know you so all I have to go on is what you post to get a feel for what you think. Your posts indicate you want to bury your head in the sand and not hear anything that contradicts your hope that all will work out well for Xjet. If you are'nt interested in other views, than stay off the internet. You will probably be happier.

Your posts Indicate that you want XJT to fail! So how are your posts any different. You are just opposite, you want to "stick your head in the sand" with the prospect of XJT being successful. At least we have an interest in this whole situation. Do you? Or do you just like to pretend you know all there is to know about aviation Management? Sure things could go either way but Honestly Nothing we say is going to change the outcome. So
Mr. Know-It-ALL How many of the conference calls or Earnings reports or even Mgmt meetings have you sat in on? Just curious because you obviously know everything about ExpressJet Airlines.

 

[captjim]

Well I don't know you so all I have to go on is what you post to get a feel for what you think. Your posts indicate you want to bury your head in the sand and not hear anything that contradicts your hope that all will work out well for Xjet.

I, and my pilot group are very aware that the potential of failure of the branded flying is a possibility, you aren't telling us anything new. However, myself and my XJT brothers will continue to be optimistic and work hard to make our company successful.

If you are'nt interested in other views, than stay off the internet. You will probably be happier.

You are correct that my time would be better served by staying off of flightinfo at times.

 

[theo]

Your posts Indicate that you want XJT to fail! So how are your posts any different. You are just opposite, you want to "stick your head in the sand" with the prospect of XJT being successful. At least we have an interest in this whole situation. Do you? Or do you just like to pretend you know all there is to know about aviation Management? Sure things could go either way but Honestly Nothing we say is going to change the outcome. So
Mr. Know-It-ALL How many of the conference calls or Earnings reports or even Mgmt meetings have you sat in on? Just curious because you obviously know everything about ExpressJet Airlines.

You are wrong. Nothing in my posts indicate I want Xjet to fail. They just don't agree with your optimism. The problem I see is if I disagree with you you try to make it personal as if I some how am against you. Not true, so relax and rather than attacking me personally focus your arguments on why I may be wrong as some of your colleagues have tried to do. I obviously am interested or I wouldnt be having this discussion. I find it an interesting experiment, albeit extremly risky and probably foolhardy. Sorry it bothers you that not everyone believes your company made the right decision. But if you want me to shut up tell me something that demonstrates Xjet is doing well with the branded flying. That would do it......Maybe.

 

[Sarag79]

If I ever start using my spare time to calculate another airline's profit margin based on ticket sales on orbitz I hope someone is kind enough to put me out of my misery.

 

[Future Furlough]

Doom and Gloom...Sexiest twins around

I may be making this up, but I heard somewhere that the break even point is something less than three-quarters full of pax at $3.00 per gallon fuel. I'm not under the illusion that the branded flying cannot tank, but I'm not worried about my job, either.
:beer:
Once and...

 

[Superpilot92]

You are wrong. Nothing in my posts indicate I want Xjet to fail. They just don't agree with your optimism. The problem I see is if I disagree with you you try to make it personal as if I some how am against you. Not true, so relax and rather than attacking me personally focus your arguments on why I may be wrong as some of your colleagues have tried to do. I obviously am interested or I wouldn't be having this discussion. I find it an interesting experiment, albeit extremely risky and probably foolhardy. Sorry it bothers you that not everyone believes your company made the right decision. But if you want me to shut up tell me something that demonstrates Xjet is doing well with the branded flying. That would do it......Maybe.

So lets get this straight you said that My colleagues have "Tried" to prove you wrong, so does that mean you are right? Because your opinion is hardly the breaking point of XJT. Look, to be honest with you I really dont care if you are on our side or not. The deal is you are going Way out of your way to try and "Prove" we are going to fail. I hope you will excuse me for not whipping out Formulas to Prove to you that things will be fine. I will leave that to our Management Team. Bottom line is WE have a great group here and 95% of the people who work for XJT are very happy working here. You call that "Koolaid" we call that pride. God forbid a person be proud of where they work. I know thats hard to believe by some people because of the state of the regionals but thats how it is here. Hopefully in time WE will prove your Opinion Wrong. Until then its all nothing more than Opinions. Fly safe

 

[BluDevAv8r]

Theo,

I respect and appreciate your attempt at trying to quantify the issue using a real world example but frankly, your methodology and assumptions are simplistic and not a propos to the real world of airline flying. The CASM numbers XJT publishes are based on a world of pure CPA flying - not branded flying.

Furthermore, as others have said above, the fare levels change depending on the time of day and how many days out prior to the flight. Also, you ignored the fact that most of XJT's fixed costs will be allocated to the CPA flying that XJT does, which will lower its segmented CASM for the branded flying.

Lastly, I know the people in charge of this venture incredibly well from the Director of Corporate Strategy/Business Development on up to the CEO himself. They are very pragmatic and thoughtful managers who have been studying this issue for over 3 years. They are well aware of the risks involved in such an operation. Is it a sure thing? Of course not. But no new business venture ever is. I give them credit for trying something new that hasn't been tried before. But I highly doubt that you will see a $120 million loss allocated to 44 jets worth of flying. Time will tell though.

-Neal

PS - I no longer work for XJT...and haven't for the past 12 months.

 

[theo]

Theo,

I respect and appreciate your attempt at trying to quantify the issue using a real world example but frankly, your methodology and assumptions are simplistic and not a propos to the real world of airline flying. The CASM numbers XJT publishes are based on a world of pure CPA flying - not branded flying. This is true, unfortunatly when you get away from a CPA world your cost go up not down, as now you have all of your revenue related costs that you will pay as opposed to CO paying for them today ie; CRS booking fees, Travel Agent commissions, Credit Card fees etc.

Furthermore, as others have said above, the fare levels change depending on the time of day and how many days out prior to the flight. Also, you ignored the fact that most of XJT's fixed costs will be allocated to the CPA flying that XJT does, which will lower its segmented CASM for the branded flying.

Again true enough, the question is whatever the ultimate fare mix turns out to be, will it produce sufficient revenue. True my methods are simplistic, but when simple indicates such terrible results, than the mgmt better be brilliant to figure out how to make it work. I guess the jury is still out on that one.

As to using bookkeeping tricks to allocate costs to CPA flying as opposed to branded flying. That is simply a way of fooling yourself. Cost is cost, at the end of the day if you want to show it in your CPA flying or branded, it still must be paid . If your revenue isnt there the end result is your gonna lose money.

Lastly, I know the people in charge of this venture incredibly well from the Director of Corporate Strategy/Business Development on up to the CEO himself. They are very pragmatic and thoughtful managers who have been studying this issue for over 3 years. They are well aware of the risks involved in such an operation. Is it a sure thing? Of course not. But no new business venture ever is. I give them credit for trying something new that hasn't been tried before. But I highly doubt that you will see a $120 million loss allocated to 44 jets worth of flying. Time will tell though.

-Neal

PS - I no longer work for XJT...and haven't for the past 12 months.

Neal,

Congratulations for attacking the ideas, not the person. You may be right as to the intelligence of XJet management team. Just remember that the team at FlyI were also lauded as a real intelligent, pragmatic, thoughtful and innovative. Everyone wanted them to succeed also, everyone said they were glad to see a Regional step out from the shadows to assert themselves. Ultimatly everyone offered condolences when it collapsed. But those who lived it were the ones who have been slowly picking up the pieces since then. Airline history is loaded with companies who failed miserably after being hailed as the next great innovator.

And to all at Express Jet who have stood up for your airline, I say bravo. It is truly good to see people who like their job and want it to continue and are willing to defend their company, no matter how carried away they sometimes get in doing so.

Finally Neal, looks like you were smart enough to get out when the getting was good, congrats!

 

[BluDevAv8r]

Neal,

Congratulations for attacking the ideas, not the person. You may be right as to the intelligence of XJet management team. Just remember that the team at FlyI were also lauded as a real intelligent, pragmatic, thoughtful and innovative. Everyone wanted them to succeed also, everyone said they were glad to see a Regional step out from the shadows to assert themselves. Ultimatly everyone offered condolences when it collapsed. But those who lived it were the ones who have been slowly picking up the pieces since then. Airline history is loaded with companies who failed miserably after being hailed as the next great innovator.

And to all at Express Jet who have stood up for your airline, I say bravo. It is truly good to see people who like their job and want it to continue and are willing to defend their company, no matter how carried away they sometimes get in doing so.

Finally Neal, looks like you were smart enough to get out when the getting was good, congrats!

Theo, I don't think anyone is touting XJT as the next great innovator. I think they are just looking for any way possible to make a few bucks using smart thinking. They don't describe themselves as being a "low cost carrier" believe it or not. They are going to price their segments exactly how the other carriers will price those segments. For example, if AA is charging X to fly from AUS-DFW-ONT then XJT will charge the same price to go from AUS-ONT direct. They are only flying city pairs that don't already have direct nonstop service. That is smart in my opinion. They are not looking to flood the marketplace with seats either. Also smart. I could go on but I just don't think this is XJT playing craps with their employees' livelihoods or their shareholders' equity. This is night and day different from FlyI which basically was suicide.

-Neal

 

[cybourg10]

theo, you do have valid points about the branded flying. When I first heard the plan I was just as sceptical as you. History and basic statistics show that you cannot make money flying 50 seat jets at low fare prices. 50 seat jets were very profitable when fuel prices were low, now that prices have sky-rocketed the 50 seaters are on their way out. The 145 burns about 2400 lbs/hr at fl370 while the 737ng burns about 4000-4500 lbs/hr (correct me if im wrong) at the same altitude plus you have an extra 100 seats on the 73, the basic numbers show that we cannot compete with SWA head to head unless pax are willing to pay extra to fly us which as we the the public usually goes with the cheapest.

The only way you can make $ on a 50 seater now is to have a CPA and fly "regional" routes and get pax to the hub where they can connect to international or more popular destinations and have a guaranteed profit for doing it. That is why CPA's work for both parties, the regional gets a guaranteed profit and the major gets pax connecting to international or famous vacation destinations (which is where their big $ come in). Most aviation experts say that we will see a drastic reduction in 50 seat jets in the next 5-10 years, they just arent profitable anymore. Thats why everyone wants the 70 and 90 seaters.

XJT says that we do not expect to make a profit on the branded flying for 3 years or so, we are using guaranteed CAL $ to help with start up costs, which is the hardest mountain to overcome for a new airline. Do you think that putting 44 a/c on this branded flying is the final solution that our management has come up with? They know everything you and I know about an airline's cost structure plus much more........I came over to XJT from an airline out of STL that is run by a goat f*cker and a bunch of moronic yes men.

The management here at XJT have some big balls and brains to do this, which is what you need to make it in this industry. The same was said about Herb & Co. back in the day.......Yes most new airlines do not make it in this industry, more fail than succeed. Yes, we cannot be a stand alone airline flying only 50 seaters for the next 20 years....you are correct on that. These 44 a/c is only the start to a bigger plan and until then we have CAL to thank for helping us start it up.

And these 10 a/c in LAX is only the start of a relationship with Delta......I have been employed by sh!tty companies in the past, this one is one of the best in the industry.......I look forward to helping it grow, dont worry about us we'll be just fine.

 

[BluDevAv8r]

theo, you do have valid points about the branded flying. When I first heard the plan I was just as sceptical as you. History and basic statistics show that you cannot make money flying 50 seat jets at low fare prices. 50 seat jets were very profitable when fuel prices were low, now that prices have sky-rocketed the 50 seaters are on their way out. The 145 burns about 2400 lbs/hr at fl370 while the 737ng burns about 4000-4500 lbs/hr (correct me if im wrong) at the same altitude plus you have an extra 100 seats on the 73, the basic numbers show that we cannot compete with SWA head to head unless pax are willing to pay extra to fly us which as we the the public usually goes with the cheapest.

The 737-800 burns roughly 6000lbs per hour in the 30's.

-Neal

 

[Non Union]

The management here at XJT have some big balls and brains to do this, which is what you need to make it in this industry. The same was said about Herb & Co. back in the day...

So we should not compare ExpressJet to FLYi, but it's ok to compare ExpressJet to Southwest?

Sorry fellas, just not buying it. Sounds an awful lot like Independence Air all over again to me.

Good luck though.

 

[azpilot]

So we should not compare ExpressJet to FLYi, but it's ok to compare ExpressJet to Southwest?

Sorry fellas, just not buying it. Sounds an awful lot like Independence Air all over again to me.

Good luck though.

Other than 50 seat aircraft how is this like FLYi????

1. We do not operate out of our former employers hubs (CLE, EWR, IAH)

2. We are not flying out of a hub competing with our former employer who is in bankruptcy.

3. We are not flying out of a major hub period.

This is not the FLYi business model. It doesn't mean it will work but quite making that stupid comparison.

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Sorry but most of you who are in your early twenties don't know sh!t about the airline business. You were how old when 9/11 happened? Do you even remember any previous recessions like in the early 90's when you were in 4th grade?
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[cybourg10]

So we should not compare ExpressJet to FLYi, but it's ok to compare ExpressJet to Southwest?

Sorry fellas, just not buying it. Sounds an awful lot like Independence Air all over again to me.

Good luck though.

Research the FLYi business model and compare it to the current XJT plan, its apples and oranges. I never compared the XJT to SWA, only the fact that no one thought SWA would succeed with their initial plan.

 

[Sarag79]

This is starting to remind me of pax saying we shouldn't be delayed due to weather if it's sunny outside. A lot of ppl stating opinions about things they know nothing about.