Experts predict Comair may be sold

[General Lee]

Boilerup,

That would seem true, and our MEC chair did give a good response in the ATL journal Constitution a couple days ago. But, from what I understand is that if we eventually did end up in Chap 11--whatever we stated in public would be the BEGINNING point where the judge would start concessions. I don't know if that is exactly true, but that is what I have heard.


Sleepy,

Here is the statement from the investor's guide: Among the tidbits from the 1st Quarter Financial Results, at the 11:43 mark:

GG speaking "I also believe we can reach that goal (achieve long term sustained profitability) without resorting to court supervised restructuring."


I know that is NOT dogma---but he would be questioned on the stand and given that quote as a reference. He could just blame it on the pilots, though....

Bye Bye--General Lee

 

[vmc-hound]

If dal-cal merge then only one reg will be needed for both majors...?

 

[General Lee]

VMC-hound,

First of all, a DL/CO merger would result in a new call sign:

"DelTaco" (DelTA--CO).


As far as more than one regional---I would believe that would be true.(all speculation here---I have no idea if this would ever happen) I bet there could be three or four--with Coex being a major one out of IAH and EWR, and ASA/Comair out of ATL/CVG. Skywest would still be the larger one out of SLC, and maybe we would have another base somewhere else--but my guess would be that CLE and DFW would soon cease to exist as bases.....The only real question would be what would happen with the monopoly in NYC----JFK, EWR, and Delta Shuttle in LGA......?

Bye Bye--General Lee

 

[sleepy]

Boilerup,

That would seem true, and our MEC chair did give a good response in the ATL journal Constitution a couple days ago. But, from what I understand is that if we eventually did end up in Chap 11--whatever we stated in public would be the BEGINNING point where the judge would start concessions. I don't know if that is exactly true, but that is what I have heard.


Sleepy,

Here is the statement from the investor's guide: Among the tidbits from the 1st Quarter Financial Results, at the 11:43 mark:

GG speaking "I also believe we can reach that goal (achieve long term sustained profitability) without resorting to court supervised restructuring."


I know that is NOT dogma---but he would be questioned on the stand and given that quote as a reference. He could just blame it on the pilots, though....

Bye Bye--General Lee

General,

I don't doubt that DAL is considering selling either ASA or Comair. That would be fine with most of the ASA and Comair pilots I have talked to. It is also possible that they may only sell Comair and keep ASA (I have heard tlk of that).

DAL still makes more money when ASA and Comair fly DAL pax, even with our higher pay and better benefits. Go figure?

As for the DAL bankruptcy, it is not something I am wishing for or anything, but I think that you are kidding yourself if you believe that they won't file Ch 11 because GG bought a Condo in ATL (still owns his place in SEA I believe).

A merger with CAL would make sense to me, I just wonder how the list integration would work out. Who would buy who?

 

[surplus1]

A merger with CAL would make sense to me, I just wonder how the list integration would work out. Who would buy who?

Sleepy,

Your kidding, right? You don't seriously expect a Delta pilot to be capable of imagining that anyone could ever buy Delta, do you? That's high treason, man.

Of course the buyer would be DELTA and the CAL pilots would welcome a staple, after the 1020 are recalled.

How could you think otherwise??????

 

[General Lee]

Hey, if that would help us stay around, I would be all for it. I don't care who buys who---with the ALPA merger policy in force (which always works.....)--I think I would do ok. And, I can't wait to use the callsign--"Deltaco 106 heavy left base runway 8L."

Bye Bye--General Lee

 

[FDJ2]

DAL still makes more money when ASA and Comair fly DAL pax, even with our higher pay and better benefits. Go figure?

Are you sure about that? M. Burns, DAL's CFO can't come to that conclusion, yet you can. Sure ASA/CMR are profitable, DAL makes sure of that, but ASA/CMR don't pay the debts on the RJs, they don't pay for marketing, distribution, selling expenses, etc. For those reasons, M. Burns stated that it can not be determined if ASA/CMR are profitable for DAL, since all those numbers are not broken down between ASA/CMR/DAL/ACA/Skywest/ Eagle/Chautauqua, but rather for the network in its entirety.

OTOH, NWA does breakdown their operating costs and revenues between the mainline and the regionals. In NWA latest SEC filing RJs provided $217M in revenue and $256M in expenses for an operating margin of -17.9%. Considering that NWA only had approximately a -4% operating margin, it doesn't quite look like those RJs at NWA are making much of a profit for NWA. Perhaps things are different at DAL, perhaps DAL's RJs make more revenue and their costs are significantly less than at NWA, but I doubt it. JMO, but I think DAL's RJ utilization will come under a great deal more scrutiny during G. Grinstein's "strategic review" as will DAL's ownership of RJ feed equity.

 

[FDJ2]

Sleepy,

Your kidding, right? You don't seriously expect a Delta pilot to be capable of imagining that anyone could ever buy Delta, do you? That's high treason, man.

Of course the buyer would be DELTA and the CAL pilots would welcome a staple, after the 1020 are recalled.

How could you think otherwise??????

DAL pilots can imagine being bought, which is why we have "change of control" protections written into our contract as well as "fragmentation" protections. In the event DAL were to be bought or DAL were to acquire a carrier with other than permitted aircraft integration of the transferring pilots would occur in accordance with the ALPA Merger Policy, or the Allegheny-Mohawk Labor Protection Provisions.

Perhaps Surplus you should of thought of these protections prior to your acquisition, but then again, you could never have imagined being acquired.

 

[michael707767]

DAL pilots can imagine being bought, which is why we have "change of control" protections written into our contract as well as "fragmentation" protections. In the event DAL were to be bought or DAL were to acquire a carrier with other than permitted aircraft integration of the transferring pilots would occur in accordance with the ALPA Merger Policy, or the Allegheny-Mohawk Labor Protection Provisions.

Perhaps Surplus you should of thought of these protections prior to your acquisition, but then again, you could never have imagined being acquired.

Ouch. He has you there Surplus.

 

[sleepy]

DAL pilots can imagine being bought, which is why we have "change of control" protections written into our contract as well as "fragmentation" protections. In the event DAL were to be bought or DAL were to acquire a carrier with other than permitted aircraft integration of the transferring pilots would occur in accordance with the ALPA Merger Policy, or the Allegheny-Mohawk Labor Protection Provisions.

Perhaps Surplus you should of thought of these protections prior to your acquisition, but then again, you could never have imagined being acquired.

I could see DAL filing CH11. Management gets the judge to get rid of these bothersome provisions of your PWA, then you are aquired by CAL. A staple on the bottom of the CAL list for you.

Who will provide the DIP for the DAL bankruptcy? TexasPacific Group, of course!

 

[sleepy]

Are you sure about that? M. Burns, DAL's CFO can't come to that conclusion, yet you can. Sure ASA/CMR are profitable, DAL makes sure of that, but ASA/CMR don't pay the debts on the RJs, they don't pay for marketing, distribution, selling expenses, etc. For those reasons, M. Burns stated that it can not be determined if ASA/CMR are profitable for DAL, since all those numbers are not broken down between ASA/CMR/DAL/ACA/Skywest/ Eagle/Chautauqua, but rather for the network in its entirety.

OTOH, NWA does breakdown their operating costs and revenues between the mainline and the regionals. In NWA latest SEC filing RJs provided $217M in revenue and $256M in expenses for an operating margin of -17.9%. Considering that NWA only had approximately a -4% operating margin, it doesn't quite look like those RJs at NWA are making much of a profit for NWA. Perhaps things are different at DAL, perhaps DAL's RJs make more revenue and their costs are significantly less than at NWA, but I doubt it. JMO, but I think DAL's RJ utilization will come under a great deal more scrutiny during G. Grinstein's "strategic review" as will DAL's ownership of RJ feed equity.

Maybe that is why Michele Burns is not longer with us, she did not know how to figure out how much money ASA and Comair were making for DAL shareholders. In case you didn't know she was fired by GG and got a job as CFO with Mirant (a bankrupt energy trading company, you know, like Enron).

Of course that is not true, DAL knows exactly what ASA and Comair are adding to the bottom line. They guard that info carefull because they really don't want us to know how much revenue we are generating for DAL. Then we might really start asking for more.

You can bet that DAL really does know how much money ASA and Comair add to the bottom line. If we were not the most profitable to DAL, then why did DAL buy us and not Skywest of Chit? If we are not the most profitable DCI carriers, then why do we operate more flights than any of the others?

 

[Vortilon]

Sleepy,

ASA & CMR have been known quantities and working with DAL for 15 years or more....hence the head start. Also being co-based at DAL's largest hubs comes in handy. I would think the way DAL has pitted you against other regionals should give you reason to believe you won't necessarily always have the monopoly in the jet feeder world. Chitaqua & company are relatively new entrants to the "free for all" RJ provider atmosphere we are living in and it certainly could get worse. Who knows how many airplanes will go to the lowest bidder over the years.

ASA & CMR are the convenient no-brainer choices for the most part; I don't believe its solely because of the profitability of one carrier over the other.

But as companies start nickle & diming even the regionals, its gonna get interesting. Unfortunately I don't think "interesting" is the most common word we're all be using.

 

[N2264J]

fascinating

I don't care who buys who---with the ALPA merger policy in force (which always works.....)

Is he:

a) Serious?

b) Baiting the junior guys?

c) A flamer?

d) Avoiding the wife again?


Obviously, General Lee has an open mind. We can feel the draft.

 

[General Lee]

N2246J,

Well, my wife has told me lately that I really do need to get off this board----it probably is giving me an ulcer. By the way---I was joking about the ALPA merger policy and how it "always works." Fact is, there are probably people that are never happy. I actually like flying for a living, and I know I can live on less---but I do enjoy a nice paycheck every once and awhile. I hope it all works out in the end for all of us.....

Bye Bye---General Lee

 

[FDJ2]

she did know how to figure out how much money ASA and Comair were making for DAL shareholders.

Really? And how much would that be?

 

[FlyComAirJets]

Much more than mainline!

Comair reported a profit, I beleve, in the $40 million range.

Have a nice day.

 

[sleepy]

Really? And how much would that be?

Ooops. I fixed it, insert a "not" in there.

 

[JI Gone OH]

40 Million Sounds about right.........

 

[FDJ2]

Re: Much more than mainline!

Comair reported a profit, I beleve, in the $40 million range.

Have a nice day.

I suppose that's easy to do with the mainline providing all the subsidies such as paying RJ debt. But when you look at the only major to separate RJ RASM/CASM from the mainline, you see that NWA shows a significant operating loss for the regionals, something to the order of a -17% operating margin.

It's easy to make a profit when the mainline is paying most of your bills, but having a subsidized profit from the mainline does not mean your operation is profitable for the mainline, since ultimately the mainline has to pick up the tab for your high costs.

 

[captainv]

FDJ2,

No matter which side you're on, isn't the basic problem here that we don't know what financial impact ASA/CMR have because DAL doesn't release the costs?

it's a fact that CMR posted a 4th quarter profit of @ $40 million. what we don't know is how much we cost the company. DAL does pick up the tab on a lot of things, but to what extent? you don't know any more than I do, so the argument is academic at best.

and if M. Burns and Delta doesn't know exactly what those costs are, this company is in a lot more trouble than i thought.

Captainv