DL MEC Rumor???

[Palerider957]

An interesting thought:

we're all still waiting to see where the RFP phantom jets are going to go. It wouldn't surprise me if the announcements were hinged on the DAL/DALPA talks. Perhaps they want to convert CRJ200 orders into CRJ700 orders and need relaxation of scope.

I know DALPA is dead against this, but DAL may push pretty hard.

Just a thought.....

 

[MedFlyer]

An interesting thought:

we're all still waiting to see where the RFP phantom jets are going to go. It wouldn't surprise me if the announcements were hinged on the DAL/DALPA talks. Perhaps they want to convert CRJ200 orders into CRJ700 orders and need relaxation of scope.

I know DALPA is dead against this, but DAL may push pretty hard.

Just a thought.....

I'd imagine there is some truth to what you are saying. An agreement between DAL/DALPA could definitely impact where the RJ's go or don't go. I think you're dead on about the CRJ700 orders. I really don't see where DL needs that many more 50 seaters, however I can imagine that DL could used some more 70 seaters.

I also believe that there is a chance the entire RFP might just be cancelled depending on DL's financial condition, economic improvement (or lack thereof) and management ideas. Some have said (the General being one) that Grinstein doesn't have the same h*rd-on for RJ's that Leo did which might also influence the RFP.

As for the rumor, much of it seems plausible except for the paycut part. I can't see DALPA giving up that much in pay. And even if the MEC agreed to that large of a cut, the pilots would surely vote it down.

 

[General Lee]

Surplus1,

I agree, and I hope the MEC and management do come up with something eventually. I think the next opportunity that will present itself is before April 15th, when unpaid vacation is paid out to all of the pilots, or before our May raise. I am not "above" giving up pay, but I want to see what Grinstein wants to do with it---hopefully not but more uniforms for another section of the employee group. (unless we get "Jordi" sunglasses) And, I will agree to do the -50 degree F walkarounds with you, but if I don't come back in 5 minutes, you need to send a rescue team.(preferably the Sweedish bikini team)


Palerider,

I can see Dalpa giving in to that, but the aforementioned help from ASA/Comair to our furloughs would have to be there. No J4J Capt slots, just the opportunity to work there without seniority resignation. But, I do not know what they will ask for...


Medflyer,

I don't think the RFP would be entirely cancelled, because there is still a possibility that DL wouldn't have to pay a dime for those aircraft---if they let someone else buy them--like Expressjet or Chataqua etc...I think they will get those 45 RJs, but I bet they would rather have them via ASA/Comair---but the needed savings from SOMEBODY would have to justify the cost. I think Grinstein would like to see more mainline service re-introduced too, but our costs have to be lower. Time will tell, and I think they are trying to feel each other out right now....



Bye Bye--General Lee

 

[~~~^~~~]

Fairly reliable sources out of the Delta MEC advise that the plan is to tell Grinstein "no" and wait for section 6 negotiations to begin in 2005. The "unity" plan is as DOA at the DAL MEC as it has ever been.

External analysts are reporting their guesses that the 45 RJ's will go outside of Delta's W.O. carriers so that Delta can out the debt off on somebody else's books and make their cash flow look better.

 

[General Lee]

Fins,

I heard today from a reliable source (??) that we were going to give them another offer, at a higher % cut. But, if they do not take that one--then they may wait......I would give you the %, but I don't know who reads this, and it is not 30%. We shall see....

Bye Bye--General Lee

 

[N2264J]

Re: DL MEC Rumor?

If management does go down the bankruptcy road I think all of us that have contracts with Delta will be in for the fight of our lives. I believe you have one with them as well.

So the Delta MEC, who was not elected by or represent the interests of CMR & ASA pilots, can unilaterally trigger Comair and ASA into bankruptcy where their contracts will be gutted in court even though Comair and ASA are profitable.

Does anyone see a representational problem here?

Anyone? Anyone?

Bueller? Bueller?

 

[scopeCMRandASA]

Re: Re: DL MEC Rumor?

So the Delta MEC, who was not elected by or represent the interests of CMR & ASA pilots, can unilaterally trigger Comair and ASA into bankruptcy where their contracts will be gutted in court even though Comair and ASA are profitable.

Does anyone see a representational problem here?

YAWN

 

[~~~^~~~]

Re: Re: DL MEC Rumor?

So the Delta MEC, who was not elected by or represent the interests of CMR & ASA pilots, can unilaterally trigger Comair and ASA into bankruptcy where their contracts will be gutted in court even though Comair and ASA are profitable.

Does anyone see a representational problem here?

Anyone? Anyone?

Bueller? Bueller?

Well certainly it is further evidence of the operational integatration that the Delta MEC denies exists.

The flip side of that coin is that ASA pilots can vote to strike and take the Delta pilots into bankruptcy. The Delta boys have much more to lose than we do at ASA.

I intend to push for a strike, not over pay, but over this whole "portfolio" issue - as far as I'm concerned if Delta and DALPA refuse to do the right thing by merging operationally integrated companies, fine, our lives will be better without Delta.

 

[General Lee]

You won't strike. National ALPA will push your MEC to sign on the dotted line. National ALPA doesn't want to see Delta bankrupt.

Bye Bye--General Lee

 

[spanky2]

~~~^~~~,

Where would ASA be without Mother D ? Seriously. ASA had a whole bunch o'problems before it became part of DCI...and now...? Nice threat...what if Just Gerry sold ASA to Greyhound...cause I have seen the greyhound-connection ride to Macon, MGM, Dothan, etc.

Any ideas on how to accomplish this DCI / mainline merger ?

 

[surplus1]

You won't strike. National ALPA will push your MEC to sign on the dotted line. National ALPA doesn't want to see Delta bankrupt.

Bye Bye--General Lee

You are correct about that one General (except you should change the word "push" to "force". National ALPA will do whatever it has to do to protect the interests of Delta pilots at the expense of other pilots in the Delta system. It always has and the leopard has not changed his spots.

Of course we all know that ALPA National has no influence over MEC's because MEC's are autonomous, unless of course they are "regional" MEC's.

Somehow I think we have a lot more to worry about than a love in between Delta mainline and the Delta subsidiaries, not the least of which is the new wages for 78-86-seat and 110-seat jets that ALPA has just installed at USAirways.

It should get really interesting when the highest captain pay rate at carriers like ASA and Comair has to match the new highest captain rate at MDA/USA.

It will also be interesting to see how your MEC deals with that when Delta decides not to give you any new airplanes unless you match those rates too.

 

[General Lee]

Surplus1,

I still believe my friend that you will see more 70 seat options being available to you if we ever do get an agreement with Jerry. He stated yesterday that he still wants no less than 30%---which would be voted down here easily. Ray Nieldl--the analyst---even stated yesterday in the ATL paper that the "bankruptcy threat" is over and shouldn't be used by management---and that they should just agree to these concession and start that recovery NOW---not two years from now after section 6 negotiations.... But, I bet you will see more 70 seaters, and there might be something tied in with helping our furloughs---not J4J capt slots, though---that wouldn't pass with you guys.....

As far as not getting any new airplanes---I think our MEC will say "hey, we have a no furlough clause that is still in effect--and if you want surplus pilots sitting around doing nothing for free pay--then fine." If they order new airplanes that are not in the current contract, then they will have to re-negotiate those and look at other airlines with same type planes. If they get 100 seat EMB-190s--then they will have to compare the rates bewtween Jetblue and MDA. I can see Dalpa letting the furloughs come back and fly the EMB-190s---kind of like in '96 when the furloughs came back and some went directly to 737 Capt at Delta Express. It will be interesting indeed.

Bye Bye--General Lee

 

[IB6 UB9]

General...just a question, nothing more. What happens if the company demands 30%, they don't get it, they file for bankruptcy, and the cuts end up exceeding 30% anyway. (Kind of like my good old UAL before I came here). Do you think this is a possible scenario? Or a likely scenario? Or no way? Just a question that comes to mind when one brings up that "it will be voted down".

 

[General Lee]

IB6UB9,

No, they cannot just file Chap 11 (and make the stock value go to zero) just because of the pilots. There would be huge lawsuits from the investors, and the current managment would be replaced by bankers. Also, we have over $3 billion in cash---which would have to be run down to about $1.5 billion (where United went Chap 11)--and the economy is getting better at the same time. Even an analyst who usually sides with management--Ray Neidl---said yesterday in the ATL paper that management cannot use the "bankruptcy threat" anymore. If Gerry Grinstein wants 30%--he will have to wait until section 6 negotiations--starting in AUG and lasting atleast another year---and even then he may not get a full 30%. He is wasting time and money according to Neidl. They may be trying to ensure a 20% cut--instead of the 9% plus the 4.5% May raise. I don't know what game they are playing, but I really don't think a 30% pay cut will pass. Anyways---we will not file for Chap 11 anytime soon---and if we went Chap 11 only because of the pilot pay---there must be other things wrong with this airline....(employee relations especially) Also, the CFO has been doing her job lately to ensure there isn't a Chap 11 senario---using the capital markets ($325 million bond conversion) and deferring 2005 payments (738 and 777 orders sold). Sounds like they could have allowed Chap 11 to happen quicker if they had just left that alone....

Bye Bye--General Lee

PS---This is what Ray Neidl said today about the industry:

"We believe the spring should see a stock rally in the airline sector, spurred by better economic and fuel price news, along with seasonality," wrote Ray Neidl, Blaylock and Partners airline analyst. Oil prices were little changed on Thursday

 

[~~~^~~~]

You won't strike. National ALPA will push your MEC to sign on the dotted line. National ALPA doesn't want to see Delta bankrupt.

Bye Bye--General Lee

You mean like the day the Comair MEC threatened to resign if the pilots did not ratify the company's offer? By the way, that same MEC Chairman is an ALPA EVP now. He has also fought off two attempts to recall him, at the airline with nearly the highest wages for the equipment. We are not happy campers at the DCI level.

General, let me be absolutely clear. We will not ratify a contract without a rock hard provision to deal with Connection. We simply must deal with the alter ego airline problem your MEC created. If necessary negotiations will deadlock at section 1 until Delta shows up at the table. We either work for our employer, or we do not return to work - period.

ALPA National & the Delta MEC underestimate the position the ASA pilots are in, just as they did with the Comair pilots.

 

[General Lee]

Fins,

I think if Gerry would just surrender the 30% deal and accept a more likely 15-20% deal, you would get some extra 70 seaters along with it. That would probably be enough for most of your guys to vote yes. It is all about expansion---and 20 or more 70 seaters might do it.....

Bye Bye--General Lee

 

[Palerider957]

General:

We are not all expansion hounds....remember, this is not an airline of 23 year olds like CHQ and MESA. Honestly, I think DAL forgets this. Many of us are career guys who are happy flying the RJ (just not happy with the pay, work rules, and bit/ch slapping from DALPA/DAL management). Dangling a few planes will not make this pilot group roll over.

Don't get me wrong, I would love to see growth, but there are other things that are more important to me. If there is to be growth it will happen regardless of our contract. Look at Comair, 89 day on the line and they are still exploding with growth.....Deep down I think DAL management would love to crush the CMR pilot group (as would DALPA), but it's not going to happen because CMR is a major cash cow (as is ASA).

Someone mentioned selling us off---go for it. Sell us to Air Tran, Jet Blue, etc...take the quick $$, then slowly bleed to death.

DCI/WO's are a lot more powerful then DAL/DALPA are willing to admit (even to themselves)...deep down it scares them--hence the alter ego carriers.

We still wield quite a bit of power, and they can't keep us from the picket line forever.

Just my rambling........

 

[General Lee]

Slowly bleed to death? Come on---you and jerry Grinstein are buddies, right? It's all the Delta pilot's fault that we are hurting? They want concessions now so they can have them when things turn around. Even Ray Neidl --the analyst---said the bankruptcy threat was wrong. And, as far as selling you off--we would do an IPO and then keep you around on a 10 year contract---and then you would still be under our same rules. Sorry man, I think you are stuck with us. I would like to work this out, and I am still thankful to you guys for helping our furloughs....


Bye Bye--General Lee

 

[~~~^~~~]

General :

Growth, while nice, does not address the alter ego problem. In fact, it makes it worse.

Until all flying is performed by pilots on the seniority list we will still have this war in our union, we will still have whipsaw, and we will still have pilots who are winners, or losers, depending on arbitrary decisions of management.

The role of a pilot's union is to bring pilots together - ALPA, at the direction of the Delta MEC has destroyed scope and destroyed pilot unity as each group fights over its slice of the pie. (Further, the way the Delta MEC has mishandled scope makes the RJDC lawsuit a very effective tool. It is likely that the RJDC will prevail and the Court will roll scope back to contract 96 language, or worse. Why the Delta MEC runs this risk just amazes me. It is very wreckless - maybe the idea is to try to merge us (and thus gain control) after (if) the RJDC prevails.)

Management does not get the savings it touts either. ASA and Comair are among the most highly compensated RJ operators and if I'm not mistaken Comair is putting as 11 or more crews up in hotels in ASA bases every night. In a word, it is stupid.

Again, many of us are determined not to return to work for some arbitrary, imagined, subsidiary, of a holding company, which is a subsidiary of the true operator of our airplanes.

It is in our mutual best interests to end "Connection."

~~~^~~~

 

[vc10]

General, I think you're confused when you said this:

Ray Nieldl--the analyst---even stated yesterday in the ATL paper that the "bankruptcy threat" is over and shouldn't be used by management---and that they should just agree to these concession and start that recovery NOW---not two years from now after section 6 negotiations....[\quote]

It wasn't Ray Neidl, it was Sam Buttrick. There's a world of difference. Sam's the number one analyst on the street. Ray's not even ranked. See below.

By RUSSELL GRANTHAM
The Atlanta Journal-Constitution
Published on: 02/11/04

A veteran Wall Street analyst says Delta and Northwest airlines' executives may be making a mistake in holding out for deep labor concessions rather than accepting more modest deals that might mean a quicker turnaround.

"Managements must compromise, in our opinion," , UBS Securities analyst Sam Buttrick said Wednesday in a note to investors. "Each month that passes without a pilot deal is costing shareholders at Delta and Northwest tens of millions of dollars. Paying above-market wages for a prolonged period to get market wages late is not a noble exercise."

Delta last spring sought a phased-in 31 percent wage cut after American, United and US Airways won steep concessions last year from union employees. The three carriers sought or nearly filed for bankruptcy protection during the negotiations.

Delta's pilots, the highest paid in the industry, have offered a 9 percent cut, plus suspension of a 4.5 percent raise scheduled for May in exchange for a three-year contract extension, to 2008, and later pay increases and job protections.

Buttrick questioned whether Delta or other carriers still can use the same threat, given the airline industry's improving prospects this year.

"Bankruptcy is no longer a credible alternative," said the long-time airline analyst. "There is no such thing as a 'threat' of bankruptcy. It has to be real. And, in our view, it's not. Smart managements won't likely play this card."[\quote]