DL MEC Rumor???

[N2264J]

You won't strike. National ALPA will push your MEC to sign on the dotted line. National ALPA doesn't want to see Delta bankrupt.

Surprisingly astute General!

Due to the fact that ALPA is joined at the hip with the NMB, ASA will not be permitted to strike under the current circumstances.

Neither will CoEX. And the fact that it could bankrupt the entire company would have been such great leverage for achieving a fair contract at the wholly owned. Contracts incidentally, that would buttress and shore up the mainline agreements. I empathize with ~~^~~ but the real scope he's talking about at a wholly owned doesn't jibe with ALPA's new brand scope scam where the DMEC will decide what scope the wholly owns need and deserve. After a 3 month strike, the Comair pilots got nowhere with scope. As a matter of fact, it wasn't even on the table when the strike began.

Your dues dollars at work. So, you think there's a representational problem here that isn't serving anybody
except management? I'm askin'.

 

[General Lee]

Vc10,

I stand corrected. You are absolutely right. I should have read it more closely--and I even quoted Neidl more than once......Thank you.


N2264J,

Sure, there is a representation problem, and I hope we can all work it out---with some growth for you and some help for our furloughs---along with some pay cuts to help Mama D. I want this all to work so we can get those furloughed people back, and then start hiring large quantities of ASA pilots to put them on our new EMB-190s that Lowecur say we will eventually get. That would be the plan....

Bye Bye--General Lee

 

[~~~^~~~]

General:

With all due respect, that is a dumb plan. As long as you have separate lists you are going to have to divide flying up amongst ALPA represented pilots working for the same operator. That means you are going to have furloughs at the same time you have growth, that means arbitrary restrictions on the airplanes Delta can operate and that means you have DFR lawsuits that ALPA can not win.

What part of unity does this union not understand? Is getting military buddies hired above 5,000 hour RJ Captains flying Delta passengers that important to your MEC?

~~~^~~~

Two words: Membership Ratification

or one word: Recall

P.S. The cost to keep 50 Comair crewmembers in Atlanta hotels every night exceeds $1,000,000.00 a year. Wow the "Portfolio" sure saves Delta a lot of money versus uses less expensive ASA pilots in our home base. Anyone know how much shipping ASA pilots to DFW costs? With the costs of Corporate Lodging Consultants, I bet the total possible savings from a Comair/ASA merger would be $2,000,000.00 just in hotel room costs!

 

[Tim47SIP]

talking in circles

"Managements must compromise, in our opinion," , UBS Securities analyst Sam Buttrick said Wednesday in a note to investors. "Each month that passes without a pilot deal is costing shareholders at Delta and Northwest tens of millions of dollars. Paying above-market wages for a prolonged period to get market wages late is not a noble exercise."

It seems to me that if Delta would have taken that 9% +4 1/2% (that has not even been realized yet!) reduction, then they would have been stuck at those numbers. With DALPA 47% higher than the next highest paid pilots on the planet, 9% only brings you down to 38% higher. This analist is implying that Delta can simply do with 9% now, when in fact that amount of capital is no where near the amount required. A 30% cut still puts them 17% higher pay, which is considerable.

Personally, I think 9% was a slap in the face when it comes to taking care of their own company. If we all have to give, then so be it, but DALPA needs to be a little more realistic in what the company needs are at the moment. With out the company, DALPA wouldn't exist. If G is asking for 30% and DALPA flat out says "no, we will wait intill 05", then BK is a real concern. It may be the only tool available at the moment. I think DALPA can help turn things around and probably will, but if they insist on "protecting the profession" to much, they may wake up to late down the road to find out that they were thrown out on the side of that road and left to rot. I dont think G is playing around here.

 

[General Lee]

Tim,

That was our FIRST offer---and of course it was low. We expected to NEGOTIATE----not get threatened with possible bankruptcy when even the analysts see that won't happen. Most of our guys thought around 15% (off of the current contract--and that includes the May raise) would help Delta and they would also seek some sort of cuts from everyone---"A Delta Solution to A Delta Problem." As far as how much the others would give--I don't know. But, only the pilots giving is WRONG. The 9% cut plus the 4.5% raise (you can't forget about that--because as of May 1st---we get a RAISE) was a good start. Grinstein is wasting a lot of money in the mean time. As far as being higher than the others--we are not exactly like the other groups. You are falling for Jerry's argument Tim. Yes, we have a debt problem--but we also have more cash on hand than AA or UAL had---and we also have only one union--which gives us MUCH MORE flexibility---they can do whatever they want to the other groups uncontested. We are willing to give up some pay--and I bet a little more than the 15% too---but not 30%. The analysts know the real story--because management cannot lie to them. The Delta CFO has also done some critical things just lately to ensure that we do not go Chap 11---like the $325 million bond sale, and selling future 777 orders. If you really think that higher waged pilots will cause an airline to go Chap 11---you have been listening to management too much. Don't listen to them, listen to what they tell Wall St.

Bye Bye--General Lee

PS--here it is again for you:


By RUSSELL GRANTHAM
The Atlanta Journal-Constitution
Published on: 02/11/04

A veteran Wall Street analyst says Delta and Northwest airlines' executives may be making a mistake in holding out for deep labor concessions rather than accepting more modest deals that might mean a quicker turnaround.

"Managements must compromise, in our opinion," , UBS Securities analyst Sam Buttrick said Wednesday in a note to investors. "Each month that passes without a pilot deal is costing shareholders at [Delta] and [Northwest] tens of millions of dollars. Paying above-market wages for a prolonged period to get market wages late is not a noble exercise."

Delta last spring sought a phased-in 31 percent wage cut after American, United and US Airways won steep concessions last year from union employees. The three carriers sought or nearly filed for bankruptcy protection during the negotiations.

Delta's pilots, the highest paid in the industry, have offered a 9 percent cut, plus suspension of a 4.5 percent raise scheduled for May in exchange for a three-year contract extension, to 2008, and later pay increases and job protections.

Buttrick questioned whether Delta or other carriers still can use the same threat, given the airline industry's improving prospects this year.

"Bankruptcy is no longer a credible alternative," said the long-time airline analyst. "There is no such thing as a 'threat' of bankruptcy. It has to be real. And, in our view, it's not. Smart managements won't likely play this card."

 

[Palerider957]

General:

No, I'm not buddies with Grinstein. But, I do think DAL and DALPA underestimate the resolve of CMR/ASA. Again, these are older pilot groups that are savy and hungry.

When I referred to selling ASA/CMR off, I did not mean I want this. I simply think it is a rediculous thing for DAL to threaten us with. If they IPO us, they might make a good buck (assuming they can talk anyone into buying our stock)--hell, why not IPO us and include shares as part of an employee incentive program--why not try to build team work instead of "the beatings will continue until morale improves" mentality.

I WANT DAL to succeed, remember--our fates (your and mine) are closely tied together. If DAL tanks it will take us with it---if we strike, we'll take DAL with us...neither situation is desireable. You make a bold statement when you say we "won't strike." maybe there are some road blocks, and outright hostility on the part of ALPA, but in the end this will only strengthen the resolve of ASA pilots when the realize how badly they've been sold out.

Has it ever occured to DALPA that downward pressure on regional wages and work rules inevtiably equates downward pressure on mainline wages and work rules?? If I were the DALPA MEC I would be working hand in hand with ASA to assure we get a good contract.

General, I would MUCH rather work WITH you and other DAL pilots, then go to war with DAL/DALPA.

Make no mistake this would be a war with very real casualties.

 

[General Lee]

Palerider,

I don't want a war either. When I said "you wouldn't strike" I wasn't trying to be bold---just thinking that National Alpa would do whatever it could to get you a deal---one that some of you might not want--but others (junior guys) would. I think even National Alpa knows the magnitude of a possible ASA strike---and they don't want it either.

You also have to remember that most of us at Delta or Dalpa want to give some pay and go forward---just not an excessive amount that is ridiculous for one employee group. We want DAL to succeed.

Bye Bye--General Lee

 

[Palerider957]

General:

Roger, copy----or as the ATL ops. people say "Copy Dat!"

I really hope things will move in a positive way. Time will tell.

 

[MedFlyer]

Tim,

That was our FIRST offer---and of course it was low. We expected to NEGOTIATE----not get threatened with possible bankruptcy when even the analysts see that won't happen. Most of our guys thought around 15% (off of the current contract--and that includes the May raise) would help Delta and they would also seek some sort of cuts from everyone---"A Delta Solution to A Delta Problem." As far as how much the others would give--I don't know. But, only the pilots giving is WRONG. The 9% cut plus the 4.5% raise (you can't forget about that--because as of May 1st---we get a RAISE) was a good start. Grinstein is wasting a lot of money in the mean time. As far as being higher than the others--we are not exactly like the other groups. You are falling for Jerry's argument Tim. Yes, we have a debt problem--but we also have more cash on hand than AA or UAL had---and we also have only one union--which gives us MUCH MORE flexibility---they can do whatever they want to the other groups uncontested. We are willing to give up some pay--and I bet a little more than the 15% too---but not 30%. The analysts know the real story--because management cannot lie to them. The Delta CFO has also done some critical things just lately to ensure that we do not go Chap 11---like the $325 million bond sale, and selling future 777 orders. If you really think that higher waged pilots will cause an airline to go Chap 11---you have been listening to management too much. Don't listen to them, listen to what they tell Wall St.

Bye Bye--General Lee

It's funny, General. For months, every analyst has been pointing directly at the DL pilots as being the source of DL's financial woes. DL pilots, like you, have of course disagreed. Now, all of the sudden you seem to think the analysts are the greatest thing on the planet. Don't you think the analysts are being a little two-faced?

Management lies to analysts frequently. Just a few months ago, DL management was trumpeting how well Song was doing and how they had big plans to expand Song. Now, management is singing a different tune. Did Song's numbers all of the sudden go sour in the last two months or was management being less then truthful about Song? Why doesn't DL management show the analysts Song's numbers?

However, General here's my question for you? How will DL compete if DL's costs remain some of the highest in the industry? Particularly, how will DL compete on the domestic front which is where most of DL's revenue comes from?

Sure, Europe generates great loads for about four months in the summer. But that's only a drop in the bucket for DL's overall revenue stream.

 

[spanky2]

~~~~,

What part of unity does this union not understand? Is getting military buddies hired above 5,000 hour RJ Captains flying Delta passengers that important to your MEC?

What's your point?

Want one list? The line forms behind TK.

 

[Capt. Caucasian]

Re: Re: DL MEC Rumor???

Due to the fact that ALPA is joined at the hip with the NMB, ASA will not be permitted to strike under the current circumstances.

Neither will CoEX.

You obviously know nothing about ExpressJet (please do not call us COEX, that company NEVER existed) negtiations or the way ALPA and the NMB work.

First of all, yours and mine and ALPA's greatest adversary right now is the NMB. They determine what you can and can not strike over or even negotiate over. Remember, the NMB all have an "R" after their names. We at ALPA are labor and therefore Democrats. The NMB and by proxy the White House will not let anything happen to destroy the managements' way of life.

Also, why (using your logic) did ALPA "allow" Mesaba to strike? I just happen to sit on the CALALPA MEC (that is the combined Continental and ExpressJet MEC) and I have talked to many of the other MECs. I don't think any of them think that ALPA is trying to bring small jet pilots down. To think that is ludicris.

Frats,
IAH FO REP

PS: Surplus1, are the same guy who is now the retired MEC chairman or has the name been passed down to you. Just curious.

 

[Tim47SIP]

General

Yes, we have a debt problem--but we also have more cash on hand than AA or UAL had---and we also have only one union--which gives us MUCH MORE flexibility---they can do whatever they want to the other groups uncontested. We are willing to give up some pay--and I bet a little more than the 15% too---but not 30%. The analysts know the real story--because management cannot lie to them. The Delta CFO has also done some critical things just lately to ensure that we do not go Chap 11---like the $325 million bond sale, and selling future 777 orders. If you really think that higher waged pilots will cause an airline to go Chap 11---you have been listening to management too much. Don't listen to them, listen to what they tell Wall St.

I guess what I am trying to get at is why play games with management? No one said it was the pilots fault for the condition that Delta is in. But we are there, and we have to fix it. Saying that it is OK to drag out negotiations because we have more money at this stage of the game, that the CFO is defering aircraft and completed a 325 million dollor bond sale so there is no immediate danger is irresponsibe. They shouldnt have to be accomplishing these things in the first place at this stage of the game. Dont you think it would be better to get Delta back on its feet now, instead of a few months or years from now?. Delta is in better shape than any of the other majors, but that is no excuse to try and manipulate as much as possible. If the custs were realized now, Delta will have more capital to wheather the storm. Remember, Delta still has to build its stock and profits after we start making money. We really shouldnt make it years to accomplish that.
I think that an agreement that gives Delta the needed financial relief now, and include an increases in wages as profits increase to eventually get you guys back to your current status is very doable. Delta has never come to DALPA with anything less than 1% over the next highest pay in the industry. They have always given you guys industry leading contracts. They didn't ask you to go with U, United or AA rates. I also understand that Delta did walk away from the negotiating table. Probably because they couldn't come close to working with 9% and need 30% for their plan to work. If you low ball someone to much, it becomes futile to try and negotiate to a number that you feal that is unatainable. So you leave the barganing table and decide your next course of action. I think you already know what that next course is going to be.

 

[General Lee]

Tim,

Come on man, don't fall for their tale. We all know there are problems. We know we have a debt problem. We also have hired people to look into this and determine exactly what needs to be done. How come management hasn't also agreed to take cuts along with the pilots that are equal in percentage? They don't have to? The CFO took an 8% pay cut--which we would easily do now--and even offered more. This has to be a "Delta solution to a Delta problem"---not just a pilot pay cut.

As far as playing games with management------do you know what you are saying? They are playing games with us. We have offered (and the door is still open) to NEGOTIATE---in good faith--and take part in a pay cut etc. As far as starting at 9 % plus an addition 4.5%---if you think that is too low---then you are WRONG. We started with a figure that we thought was good enough for our employee group---but we are still willing to talk more. If they don't want to talk more and try to increase that some---then too bad. You can't give away the farm Tim---or you will NEVER get it back--and management will get bonuses depending on how much they can get from employees. The main thing is that you need to negotiate when you want something and the contract isn't due yet. We would give them some money now--but as an investment---investing in our future. If Grinstein wants to drag this on and go for a full 30%--it is his doing. The analysts have said that the bankruptcy card isn't there now--but it might be in the next big economic downturn. That is what we should be preparing for--and I hope he can see this and negotiate now and get some savings now. I don't want to hurt the company--but he needs to show us what EVERYONE will be contributing, and then make our cut fair--since we have a union and a contract.

Bye Bye--General Lee

 

[Tim47SIP]

Thanks General

Thanks for the decent reply. I want you to know that I am truely on your side on this, but I have a difference of opinion on how to get to the end result. With that said:

As far as playing games with management------do you know what you are saying? They are playing games with us. We have offered (and the door is still open) to NEGOTIATE---in good faith--and take part in a pay cut etc. As far as starting at 9 % plus an addition 4.5%---if you think that is too low---then you are WRONG.

I understand that Management has played games, but your finance guys need to tell us average joes why 9% now and a future 4.5% raise cut will be all Delta needs to survive. If all that Delta needs is what you offered, then I seriously doubt that Delta is in the shape it says it is in.

We started with a figure that we thought was good enough for our employee group---but we are still willing to talk more. If they don't want to talk more and try to increase that some---then too bad. You can't give away the farm Tim---or you will NEVER get it back--and management will get bonuses depending on how much they can get from employees. The main thing is that you need to negotiate when you want something and the contract isn't due yet. We would give them some money now--but as an investment---investing in our future.

How did you decide that that figure was good enough. Why isn't DALPA publishing their findings? I never said to give away the farm, I said to NEGOTIATE a return of salary with a schedule of wage increases to get you back to where you are now. Remember, Delta is now competing with a new enemy, LCC's. You can hide this fact all you want, but untill Delta gets their cost structure in line with the LCC's, they will loose money. I know that they have the European routes, but I don't think that will be enough.


If Grinstein wants to drag this on and go for a full 30%--it is his doing. The analysts have said that the bankruptcy card isn't there now--but it might be in the next big economic downturn. That is what we should be preparing for--and I hope he can see this and negotiate now and get some savings now.


What is wrong with a full 30% and then raises to get you guys back? You talk about analysts, but there is only ONE analyst that has said anything in your favor. I think he is wrong. Dead wrong (but I am not an analyst). I think that by giving the 30% (with stipulations-like NO bonuses for management), you have shown that you are commited to Delta's return to profits and are not contributing to the problem. Right now it looks like DALPA is doing nothing but sucking up as much cash as it can untill it has absolutely no other choice but to conceed.

I don't want to hurt the company--but he needs to show us what EVERYONE will be contributing, and then make our cut fair--since we have a union and a contract.

Wy should he have to do that? What is fair? Every one else is at or below industry stadards, and you still state that all the other employees should take a cut. Here is the deal, if you want the other employees to take a cut, then you need to bring your pay down to the percentage that the rest of the employees are in relation to the industry. So if we all take a 10% cut, you also need to take a cut that puts you at the same industry standards as us. 10% below industry standards. Fair is fair, right? That would mean that you would have to give arround 67%. How is that for EVERYONE contributing? No one at Delta or DCI is complaining that you guys stay way on top of industry pay. Heck, I thing DALPA deserves it as you guys are one of the best group of mainline guys in the industry. But you need to take a look at reality here.

General, no one wants to see you guys get screwed. We all are behind you guys. But, you have to realize that the industry is changing very rapidly around you. Building up the wall you guys are trying to errect and maintain is doing nothing but harm to you and the rest of the industry. You can try to prove who is right or wrong here, but the facts speak for themselves. The LCC's are the problem and the WO are your freinds. I really don't know what else to say. TIM.

 

[General Lee]

Tim,

I know you are behind us. Let me see if I can answer some of those questions. First of all, I am not a negotiator, I am just a line pilot. I am not privy to everything the MEC sees, and they have to keep some things confidential--why? I don't know. But, I do ask the Dalpa guys a lot in the lounge, and here is what I have gotten:

We apparently hired a very famous NY investment bank that specializes in restructuring. We also hired two aviation economists that each have 30 years in the aviation business. They got a hold of the Delta books and gave it a good look through. They initially determined that the 9% plus the 4.5% raise (or 13.5% off of the contract as of May 1st) would be good enough---along with other groups also participating somewhat---to get the needed financing to refinance our huge debt.

You stated that we should get some of that 30% pay cut back--like a certain percentage every year maybe (like AA is doing). Grinstein says NO----they have to be long standing cuts. How about snapbacks? Nope. He also says we will fight more with LCCs in the future. We really don't know what the future will bring---what if a couple majors tank and there is a huge gap open for new INTL service---a service that LCCs might not go for...We don't know.

As far as the other groups go----we all have a stake in this. I don't think many of our other employees make industry standard pay---look at them. Most of our other employees are a lot older than the young new ones at Jetblue and Southwest, and they make a lot more. The important fact is that Delta doesn't want any of the other groups to go for unions. It is true. They don't want to make waves. We also have more Vice Presidents in management than we know what to do with. We actually have a Vice President of Cultural Diversity. Say what? The only people that I know of so far to have taken cuts is the CFO (8%), and the stews---I believe 4%--but can now work more hours and make it up. There have also been some minor changes in healthcare costs--higher premiums etc.. that we will get also eventually---along with a proposed 30% (!!!!!) pay cut??? Say What? That pay cut doesn't include cuts in per diem, INTL pay, night pay (allnighters), vacation pay cut by 30 mins per day of vacation---if you make $200 an hour after working here 20 years(I don't)---then you would lose $100 a day for 7 days---or $700 per week of vacation. And there is a lot more---stuff that we fought for for many years. Do you think any of that stuff will ever come back? Nope. What about when you get here Tim?

Also, that one analyst you talked about---Sam Butrick---is one of the most famous. He has been around a long time, and most of the time has backed management---but not this time. He makes sense---he said DL and NW should take the offers---get the needed savings NOW, and then go forward with less costs, instead of waiting 2 years to try to get more and waste investors money now. We are still willing to talk---but it has to be fair--and I bet the 13.5% would go up a little also.

I know I seem to rant every once and awhile, and believe me---I love my job and feel very lucky to have it. But, Grinstein doesn't want to let us have any of it back--in snapbacks etc. He thinks we should pay for everything that needs fixing--even though we have been a fixed cost the whole time. I think we all have something to lose here, and ALL OF US have to chip in---in one way or another. I think we ---the pilots---might have to take the biggest cut---but not the only cut. Take care.

Bye Bye--General Lee

 

[Heavy Set]

General,

Very thorough response. I would NEVER give in to what Management wants because they will always cut DEEPER than necessary... Why? Because they understand that negotiators will be back in a few years and they want the bar set LOWER. If DAL MEC gives up, every pilot out there will have a lower bar for comparison - everyone should be backing DAL MEC - because they set the standard for everyone else.....

I'd love to see what Grinchstein proposes for management pay cuts...

 

[skydraulic]

Does someone have any accurate numbers of how much more the average DALPA pilot makes compared to the next highest? From an outsider looking in..has there been any talk of making a national pilot list/ pay scale? It looks as if it's a crapshoot....just hoping you get hired by an airline that will still be around when it's time for you to retire. I mean you could get hired on by what most would consider the best airline and it could spiral down well before you hit age 60. It's one thing (other occupations) working for a company that goes under and having the experience to get hired by another company at a close pay range....but having to start all over with pay/ seniority....doesn't sound like alot of fun. I can't imagine what it would be like for a 15 year captain at DAL going to work for Jet Blue, Air Tran, or some other airline. Wish I were able to hear some viewpoints from some ex Eastern, Pan Am, Braniff, TWA etc... pilots

 

[sleepy]

As I understand it management first wanted a 30% pay cut, but was offering profit sharing. The DAL MEC countered with a 20% pay cut and profit sharing. The Company then countered with a worse offer than their original (30% pay cut without profit Sharing). So, where is it now?

I have also heard from a high-up in our (ASA) MEC that good things are in the works for ASA and even Comair. Our MEC Chair and the DAL MEC Chair get along very well. That is a big change from the last MEC Chair at DAL.

I would like to see something worked-out that get's rid of the contract carriers, and places all DAL brand flying within the DAL family. That way, DAL can keep all of the profits, better control the safety and quality of the service, and put all of DAL's furloughed pilots back to work.

 

[~~~^~~~]

Skydraulic :

Yes, Fred Reid has a presentation with slides showing the industry wage comparison last year. The accurate numbers, as of last year was that Delta pilots earn 62 to 68% more than the industry standard and 47 to 48% more than their next most highly compensated peers. Mike Pinho, representing the Delta MEC, agreed with the numbers, as presented. You can also look at some of the pilot contract web sites and perform your own analysis.

The numbers are more than just pay. At the time Fred Reid made his presentation the average Delta pilot was flying 40 hours a month. It was agreed by all in attendance that this number was lower than typical due to trainning.

In this same presentation, Reid went through the other employee groups. For years Delta has had a policy of reviewing the industry pay rates for job classifications and maintaining wages at these industry levels. Doing this sort of analysis is pretty common amongst Fortune 500 companies. At any rate, the rest of the Delta employees were within 4% of the industry and management was actually considerably lower (due in large part to management robbing the piggy bank at dying United and US Air).

General :

So tell us, how much should we ASA pilots be cut to supplement your income?

~~~^~~~

 

[~~~^~~~]

~~~~,

What part of unity does this union not understand? Is getting military buddies hired above 5,000 hour RJ Captains flying Delta passengers that important to your MEC?

What's your point?

Want one list? The line forms behind TK.

My point is that the ASA and Comair MEC's made proper application under the union's Constitution and Bylaws for a merger. A merger that would have resulted in pilots being hired on to the Delta list, rather than furloughs and shrinkage.

The last two Delta MEC (as in Master Executive Counsel of an ALPA bargaining unit) said their priority was ensuring Delta remained the airline of choice for ex-military pilots, pilots who would not want to fly a CL65, or God forbid, an E-120. Delta pilots wanted to ensure their position as the "best" pilot group and others could perform the flying they did not want in the "non preferred" pilot group.

I don't know who TK is, but I imagine he is very junior at Delta. If so, the "non-preferred" could expect to line up behind him based on (1) paycheck, or (2) equipment type. So be it. Those criteria have always been used to resolve ALPA mergers and since the ASA and Comair pilots applied for a merger, that this the chance they accepted.

So, due to the Delta MEC's allegiance to pilots flying T-41's who might someday want to fly in the airlines, this scope / Connection / whipsaw mess was created. ALPA now has a civil war, three DFR suits that it can not win, every pilot group in concessionary bargaining and every pilot group looking enviously at flying performed by other ALPA pilot groups. Oh, and TK is on the STREET, so I guess this worked out for him

My point is that ALPA should focus on representing ALPA members.

This mess is the result that the Comair and ASA MEC's told the ALPA National board would happen four years ago. Their predicitve powers were not that remarkable at the time - just nobody believed our industry would go from there to here in four short years....