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Old Crow

Well-known member
Joined
Dec 6, 2001
Posts
166
The answer to this question is unknown, however, since most of you seem to be quite the industry analyst...

While Delta continues losing, losing and losing, one might fear the next logical move. Delta has said they want to retire the 737-200's, MD-88's etc...
They burn fuel yada, yada, yada...

I know the whole "shrinking to profitability" argument.

But...

If Delta needs to retire these old aircraft that suck the fuel, can't get funding for new ones, sells ASA and Comair. Are there enough retirements (pilots) scheduled to keep from furloughing more while maintaing appropriate staffing while aircraft are retired?
 
Old Crow said:
Are there enough retirements (pilots) scheduled to keep from furloughing more while maintaing appropriate staffing while aircraft are retired?

Right now, both the company and the union seem to think there will be enough flying to prevent furloughing. I don't see it. I think some of the recently recalled pilots will face furlough again. Not trying to piss anybody off, thats just how I see it.
 
michael707767 said:
Right now, both the company and the union seem to think there will be enough flying to prevent furloughing. I don't see it. I think some of the recently recalled pilots will face furlough again. Not trying to piss anybody off, thats just how I see it.

I hope not, I have a few friends who were finally just recalled within the last 6 months!
 
Something has to give. Parking a bunch of airplanes =

a. Replace with the mythical 100 seater for mainline
b. More DCI flying...scope violation in terms of % of mainline
c. Scope violation by giving bigger jets to DCI / exceeding 70 seat limit
d. Give up market share to somebody else
e. Re-furlough pilots
f. Do b - e above

The answer is:
 
There are a bunch of -800's on order starting next year to offset some of the aircraft retirements. However, I'm just waiting for the announcement for the deferral of those aircraft like they did before. The re-furlough probably won't happen until they get to my number anyway....

L8R-
 
spanky2 said:
Something has to give. Parking a bunch of airplanes =

a. Replace with the mythical 100 seater for mainline
b. More DCI flying...scope violation in terms of % of mainline
c. Scope violation by giving bigger jets to DCI / exceeding 70 seat limit
d. Give up market share to somebody else
e. Re-furlough pilots
f. Do b - e above

The answer is:

You need revenue to pay down the debt and to pay for overhead, leases, etc. It doesn't make sense to downsize at this moment when you need to generate the revenue. Selling off ASA and maybe Comair alone won't suffice - you need to generate revenue and therefore you need aircraft flying... With all of the upcoming retirements (I hear a huge number will retire very soon), the furloughees will be needed to cover. The only problem with that is the lack of training slots given the previous retirements and resulting retraining...
 
On Your Six said:
You need revenue to pay down the debt and to pay for overhead, leases, etc. It doesn't make sense to downsize at this moment when you need to generate the revenue. Selling off ASA and maybe Comair alone won't suffice - you need to generate revenue and therefore you need aircraft flying... With all of the upcoming retirements (I hear a huge number will retire very soon), the furloughees will be needed to cover. The only problem with that is the lack of training slots given the previous retirements and resulting retraining...

Right on the money. Right now DAL is squeezing more hours out of the existing airframes. Mainline capacity is scheduled to continue to increase this year, 4-6% domestic and 12-14% international. Fleet simplification makes sense, the older 737s and 767-200s will be gone in the next few years. While DAL still has plenty of mainline aircraft on order, I expect, since management wanted to negotiate the pay rate, some 800 orders to be changed to B737-700s and 900s. These airframes would be a good replacements for the aging 737-200s/300s and 767-200s. Also, expect to see DAL's 767-300ER fleet modified with Boeings new winglets, increasing the performance and efficiency of DAL's 767ER fleet.

On the subject of retirements and furloughs, expect to see over 130 retirements in May. DAL already has committed to recall at least an additional 100 pilots this year, with these retirements DAL will most likely increase the recalls.
 
DL does need more planes to produce more revenue, but the problem is paying for them. When you are hemorraghing billions of dollars every year, it's pretty hard to finance new planes. DL is supposed to take more 737 deliveries next year, but if DL is still racking up huge losses in '06, you can expect many of those deliveries to be deferred or sold to another party.
 
MedFlyer said:
DL does need more planes to produce more revenue, but the problem is paying for them. When you are hemorraghing billions of dollars every year, it's pretty hard to finance new planes. DL is supposed to take more 737 deliveries next year, but if DL is still racking up huge losses in '06, you can expect many of those deliveries to be deferred or sold to another party.

Yet DAL has enough money to spend on about $500M in cash payments for RJs this year alone and those only move 50-70 passengers at a pop at a higher cost/seat mile. At the end of the day, if DAL continues to lose billions and DAL's liquidity drops, there will be no more mainline aircraft or RJs. One only needs to look at Indy to see what happens when your RJ footprint is too big. RJs are good aircraft, but they need a large mainline fleet to feed otherwise their just costly executive jets in a price sensitive market.
 
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MedFlyer said:
DL does need more planes to produce more revenue, but the problem is paying for them. When you are hemorraghing billions of dollars every year, it's pretty hard to finance new planes. DL is supposed to take more 737 deliveries next year, but if DL is still racking up huge losses in '06, you can expect many of those deliveries to be deferred or sold to another party.

Thank God that Fred GREED bought all of those hundreds of RJs - what would happen if Delta didn't own those RJs???? It might be closer to a profit. Selling off ASA or Comair and shelving them with some of the debt they deserve (attributed to their RJs) would be a good start.
 
Also, expect to see DAL's 767-300ER fleet modified with Boeings new winglets, increasing the performance and efficiency of DAL's 767ER fleet.

There is no blended winglet program for the 767. 737 and 757 are the only two models that have the mod available and the 757 is not yet up to full speed.
 
Ex737Driver said:
There is no blended winglet program for the 767. 737 and 757 are the only two models that have the mod available and the 757 is not yet up to full speed.

It's in the works

Boeing was also said to be encouraging Asian Composites Manufacturing (ACM), its local joint venture with Hexcel, Naluri and Sime Darby in Bukit Kayu Hitam, to bid for the manufacture of these winglets. Boeing CommercialAirplanes customer support vice president Carl Brandenburg said there is an estimated market of more 1,000 B757 and B767 winglet retrofits. Mike Marino, APB’s CEO, says the company has invested in preliminary design work and analysis for a B767-300ER blended winglet following the success of the B737NG wingletprogramme and the launch of theB757 programme.

“We are out talking to launch customers right now on partnering with us to launch that programme.” The discussions have involved Air Canada, Hawaiian, American and Delta among other operators. The upgrade should add value to the aircraft and extend its useful life for most of the operators. The company is looking specifically at the 413,000lb high-gross-weight version of the B767-300ER.

Mike Stowell, VP of engineering, says the winglets themselves would add just over 10ft (3.3m) to the overall wingspan, stand 11ft (3.4m) tall and add approximately 2,300lb to the operating empty weight, including the winglets themselves, any necessary ballast and structural modifications to the wing. The modification is predicted to save around six per cent in block fuel at the aircraft’s 6,000 mile range, or about 4.5 per cent at 3,000 miles. The higher figure would translate into annual savings of up to 400,000 gallons of fuel.

http://www.aviation-industry.com/atem/newpages/current_atempdfs/AT75b767ext.pdf



 
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Interesting info. I'm still a furloughee - waiting....applying to others....waiting.. a buddy in my reserve unit is still on reserve - he took a week off for mil duty last month and still flew something like 70+ -80 something hours with almos ta week and a half off with the schedule. He said they are flying his butt off on reserve. So....the flying is there....we just need to make it profitable.
 
Huh.
I saw - on the DALPA forums - that one of the guys in class this month was furloughed 5 months ahead of me. If you look at the seniority #s...that doesn't jive - so a lot of folks must be bypassing recall.
Wonder if the company planned for all these retirements - are any of them early?
 
dtfl said:
Huh.
I saw - on the DALPA forums - that one of the guys in class this month was furloughed 5 months ahead of me. If you look at the seniority #s...that doesn't jive - so a lot of folks must be bypassing recall.
Wonder if the company planned for all these retirements - are any of them early?

Quite a few folks are bypassing recall. Many have military obligations and others have jobs at other carriers and are rightfully waiting to see how things turn out before making the decision to come back.

I don't have the exact number in front of me, but I do believe that over 120 of the May 1st retirements are early, and no, the company did not plan on all these retirements.
 
On Your Six: Don't forget who has been paying for the retirement! It sure was not you guys! We are all trying to keep Big D afloat! Without ASA and COMAIR, Delta would have been in bankrupsy long ago! Tired of the same ole song....its all the rjs fault! GET A NEW RECORD!!!!
 
Tom-kitty,

"Bankrupsy" ?? Warred due larn to spell ?

PS - you must really believe that stuff that gets pumped into you at CL-65 school(aka "the Academy"). Every seat is aisle or window...DUH. Read the fine print:

But the RJ often seats 40 vs 50 due to weight restrictions, and don't take any luggage bigger than a gym bag, no guarantee that will make it either. Hey, they are self-financing, too. Right.
 
If we sell ASA/Comair, we would still use them under the DL banner, so no big changes there. We need some extra cash to make sure we make it through the year, and at the same time we have done fairly well executing our transformation plan, according to Grinstein and Palumbo(the CFO) in the last confrence call. The problem for us is fuel, and everyone else except SW, Fedex, and UPS. That last quarter loss was terrible, but apparently it was expected, and a lot had to do with tearing down DFW, paying for moves, starting simplifares, and the gas. (GAS being the large expense now) We are trying to get $5 billion a year in savings, and we will be at around $3 billion a year by the end of this year. They are trying their best I believe.


Bye Bye--General Lee
 
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I just found this article on the Dalpa.net

Delta: Enough worker pay cuts

By RUSSELL GRANTHAM
The Atlanta Journal-Constitution
Published on: 04/30/05

Despite continuing financial losses and sky-high fuel prices, Delta Air Lines executives say they don't expect to go back to pilots or other employees for more pay cuts.

"That is not our plan," Chief Executive Gerald Grinstein said Friday.


BEN GRAY/AJC

Delta CEO Gerald Grinstein says the airline is now on the right track.​

Further employee sacrifices at the Atlanta-based airline would hurt morale and service, he suggested.

"We have gotten to the point where I think the morale and spirit of the people is so important," Grinstein said. He said he knows some workers were discouraged by the $1.1 billion net loss for the first quarter reported last week.

But Delta in coming months will stick with turnaround plans it's already launched, Grinstein said, while at the same time trying to offset fuel costs with more efficiency-boosting changes in schedules and airport operations.

Such moves include shortening the time aircraft spend on the ground between flights and trimming weekend flight schedules.

Grinstein and other Delta executives talked about their plans Friday in a meeting with editors of The Atlanta Journal-Constitution.

In a wide-ranging discussion, they said sustained high fuel prices — up about 50 percent in the past year — will make it impossible for any airline to succeed.

"There will be a lot of trauma in the industry" if conditions don't improve in coming months, said Chief Financial Officer Michael Palumbo.

"If we're measuring in terms of a race to the morgue, it's hard to make a call," he said. "But the fact is, we're in a much better position than we were last year."

The Delta executives said their cost-cutting campaign is "on target" but that the results are being masked by fuel costs that now consume about 30 percent of revenue.

The silver lining in the grim first-quarter report was significant progress in cutting costs other than fuel. The airline maintained its cash reserves at $1.8 billion, albeit by using the last installment of vendor financing that helped it avoid a bankruptcy filing last fall.

"Even with higher fuel, we didn't miss [our] plan by that much," said Grinstein, "which tells me we're on the right track."

Since 2001, Delta has announced about 23,000 job cuts, won deep pay concessions from pilots, cut other nonunion employees' pay, shut down its Dallas hub, launched more efficient operations at its huge Atlanta hub and ditched older, gas-guzzling aircraft.

Delta's strategy and network chief, James Whitehurst, said future cost-cutting efforts are aimed at creating a "hybrid" airline combining more efficient flight hubs with more of the point-to-point service that discount carrier Southwest Airlines uses.

While the overhaul hasn't stopped Delta's bleeding, management is betting it may be enough to allow the airline to survive until a rival goes out of business first, or until dropping fuel prices or rising fares give the industry some relief.

Palumbo said Delta has cut $2 billion from its operating budget since last year and expects to push annual savings to $3 billion by year-end.

As a result, Delta should continue to operate outside of bankruptcy with lower cash reserves than it would have needed in the past, the executives said.

"We'll bleed more slowly than we ever did before, and disproportionately more slowly than the rest of the industry," Palumbo said.

Some industry analysts remain skeptical and think Delta will be back at the brink of a Chapter 11 filing later this year.

Delta is burning through $4 million a day — more than any other carrier — and is "the most likely candidate for a bankruptcy filing this year," said Calyon Securities analyst Ray Neidl in a report this week.

The airline is lobbying Congress for assistance that would spread required pension reserve payments out over 25 years instead of five. That would save Delta and other big airlines hundreds of millions of dollars in coming years.

Sen. Johnny Isakson (R-Ga.) introduced a bill to that effect in the Senate and Republican Rep. Tom Price of Roswell is expected to put in a House version next week.

The legislative effort has backing from Delta and Northwest, their pilots unions and other employee groups, but may face an uphill battle because White House pension proposals don't include relief for airlines.

Grinstein said the government assistance shouldn't be seen as an industry bailout because it would help airlines stay solvent enough to pay their own pensions rather than terminating them and saddling the government-backed Pension Benefit Guaranty Corp. with the liabilities.

"I actually think of it as a bailout of the government," the Delta CEO said.

High fuel costs have prompted airlines to nudge fares upward — something the hyper-competitive industry rarely does successfully.

The latest bump came late Thursday when American Airlines added $10 roundtrip to U.S. and Canadian flights. Delta and Northwest matched the move.

Grinstein, a longtime Delta board member who took the controls in a late 2003 management shake-up, said he expects to stay in the job this year and part or all of next year.

He said he expects to name a successor from within Delta's ranks.



Interesting indeed! We'll see if they are right. I doubt it though. I think there will be another "asking" for pay cuts in late Summer. I guess we can all hope not.


Bye Bye--General Lee
 
Spanky......Sorry, hit the wrong letter! Must be great being as cool as you? NOT! And by the way, there is no way in hell I would go to that academy! Thanks for playing!
 
General, I believe that the only way selling us off and keeping any of the proceeds that continue to come in would be to spin us off into an IPO? We have all been saying this for years, but no one wants to listen. I guess when it gets right down to it, may GG will have what it takes to make it happen. That would be fine with me, get rid of all our mgmnt at ASA and make it happen!
 
General,

Maybe I ain't seeing this right, but I can't see how Delta can get meaningful cash for either of us. whoever buys us will want assurances that Delta won't cancel their contract if they go to bk. They will want price high enough to make a profit on the fee for departure and they will want Delta to take over the leases on the a/c if there is a reduction in flying. I don't see how some one would be stupid enough to take a worse deal than that. Once the industry is on the upswing again I have no doubt Delta will sell us, but I just can't see it now. I hope the recalls don't get thrown back on the street though, I got friends still out and I want them back soonest!
 
Three observations people:

1: Bankruptcy will change everything. While most of these theories are workable in a company recovering, all bets are off in a bk. process. I think there is no way Delta can avoid a bankruptcy filing short of a financial miracle this year i.e. oil dropping. No company can sustain cash burns and losses like this. The "paper" losses as well. Eventually they do affect credit ratings which eventually does crimp the bottom line.

2: The "No more paycuts" is a ploy only to keep the troops from revolting. If the numbers don't improve, or Delta files,they will come back for more and it will be with a vengenace. Either through negotiations or an 1113 process it is coming. To think otherwise is not smart for your own financial planning. Ask any UAL or U pilot if they would of thought in the beggining of their saga if their contracts would of been gutted to the extent they are today.

Pilots are like a deer in the headlights. They just stop and stare and never believe the management truck isn't actually going to run them over. The problem now is ALPA (at the local and national level) has allowed the incompetent theives running these airlines to not only run over us, but to back the truck over the corpse again and again.

3: Selling the DCI carriers is akin to burning the furniture to heat the house. While on the surface it seems like a good short term move harvest cash for mother Delta to stave of liquidity problems, in the long run all it is doing is buying time. Delta must address it's debt problem. I read an analysis that showed even if Delta used all the cash from the sale, it would only pay down about 9% of their total debt.

If you don't think this is plausible, rethink and study how every airline bankruptcy has played out in the last 20 years.
 
spanky2 said:
Tom-kitty,

"Bankrupsy" ?? Warred due larn to spell ?

PS - you must really believe that stuff that gets pumped into you at CL-65 school(aka "the Academy"). Every seat is aisle or window...DUH. Read the fine print:

But the RJ often seats 40 vs 50 due to weight restrictions, and don't take any luggage bigger than a gym bag, no guarantee that will make it either. Hey, they are self-financing, too. Right.

hey spank-yourself,
i guess on top of being the spelling police you "must really believe that stuff that gets pumped into you at B-727 FE school on Virgina Avenue". just another "blame all of Delta's woes on the RJs", Gods gift to aviation experts......
 
If GG needs to sell ASA/CMR to raise a few bucks, so be it. Honestly I can't think we are worth that much in this depressed market (especially with ASA's open labor contract).

All the talk of SKYW buying us seems a farce. Virgin Atl., is interesting, but they seem to be slow to get going. I can't really think of anyone else who would want us? Mesa? JO would have his hands full with the ASA/CMR pilot groups.

I think DAL is stuck with us for at least the short-term.
 
FDJ2 said:
Mike Stowell, VP of engineering, says the winglets themselves would add just over 10ft (3.3m) to the overall wingspan, stand 11ft (3.4m) tall and add approximately 2,300lb to the operating empty weight, including the winglets themselves, any necessary ballast and structural modifications to the wing. The modification is predicted to save around six per cent in block fuel at the aircraft’s 6,000 mile range, or about 4.5 per cent at 3,000 miles. The higher figure would translate into annual savings of up to 400,000 gallons of fuel.

http://www.aviation-industry.com/atem/newpages/current_atempdfs/AT75b767ext.pdf






out of curiosity, why don't they just add the same wingtips as the 767-400?
 

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