Delta

[Old Crow]

The answer to this question is unknown, however, since most of you seem to be quite the industry analyst...

While Delta continues losing, losing and losing, one might fear the next logical move. Delta has said they want to retire the 737-200's, MD-88's etc...
They burn fuel yada, yada, yada...

I know the whole "shrinking to profitability" argument.

But...

If Delta needs to retire these old aircraft that suck the fuel, can't get funding for new ones, sells ASA and Comair. Are there enough retirements (pilots) scheduled to keep from furloughing more while maintaing appropriate staffing while aircraft are retired?

 

[michael707767]

Are there enough retirements (pilots) scheduled to keep from furloughing more while maintaing appropriate staffing while aircraft are retired?

Right now, both the company and the union seem to think there will be enough flying to prevent furloughing. I don't see it. I think some of the recently recalled pilots will face furlough again. Not trying to piss anybody off, thats just how I see it.

 

[Shalam]

Right now, both the company and the union seem to think there will be enough flying to prevent furloughing. I don't see it. I think some of the recently recalled pilots will face furlough again. Not trying to piss anybody off, thats just how I see it.

I hope not, I have a few friends who were finally just recalled within the last 6 months!

 

[spanky2]

Something has to give. Parking a bunch of airplanes =

a. Replace with the mythical 100 seater for mainline
b. More DCI flying...scope violation in terms of % of mainline
c. Scope violation by giving bigger jets to DCI / exceeding 70 seat limit
d. Give up market share to somebody else
e. Re-furlough pilots
f. Do b - e above

The answer is:

 

[Launchpad]

There are a bunch of -800's on order starting next year to offset some of the aircraft retirements. However, I'm just waiting for the announcement for the deferral of those aircraft like they did before. The re-furlough probably won't happen until they get to my number anyway....

L8R-

 

[On Your Six]

Something has to give. Parking a bunch of airplanes =

a. Replace with the mythical 100 seater for mainline
b. More DCI flying...scope violation in terms of % of mainline
c. Scope violation by giving bigger jets to DCI / exceeding 70 seat limit
d. Give up market share to somebody else
e. Re-furlough pilots
f. Do b - e above

The answer is:

You need revenue to pay down the debt and to pay for overhead, leases, etc. It doesn't make sense to downsize at this moment when you need to generate the revenue. Selling off ASA and maybe Comair alone won't suffice - you need to generate revenue and therefore you need aircraft flying... With all of the upcoming retirements (I hear a huge number will retire very soon), the furloughees will be needed to cover. The only problem with that is the lack of training slots given the previous retirements and resulting retraining...

 

[FDJ2]

You need revenue to pay down the debt and to pay for overhead, leases, etc. It doesn't make sense to downsize at this moment when you need to generate the revenue. Selling off ASA and maybe Comair alone won't suffice - you need to generate revenue and therefore you need aircraft flying... With all of the upcoming retirements (I hear a huge number will retire very soon), the furloughees will be needed to cover. The only problem with that is the lack of training slots given the previous retirements and resulting retraining...

Right on the money. Right now DAL is squeezing more hours out of the existing airframes. Mainline capacity is scheduled to continue to increase this year, 4-6% domestic and 12-14% international. Fleet simplification makes sense, the older 737s and 767-200s will be gone in the next few years. While DAL still has plenty of mainline aircraft on order, I expect, since management wanted to negotiate the pay rate, some 800 orders to be changed to B737-700s and 900s. These airframes would be a good replacements for the aging 737-200s/300s and 767-200s. Also, expect to see DAL's 767-300ER fleet modified with Boeings new winglets, increasing the performance and efficiency of DAL's 767ER fleet.

On the subject of retirements and furloughs, expect to see over 130 retirements in May. DAL already has committed to recall at least an additional 100 pilots this year, with these retirements DAL will most likely increase the recalls.

 

[MedFlyer]

DL does need more planes to produce more revenue, but the problem is paying for them. When you are hemorraghing billions of dollars every year, it's pretty hard to finance new planes. DL is supposed to take more 737 deliveries next year, but if DL is still racking up huge losses in '06, you can expect many of those deliveries to be deferred or sold to another party.

 

[FDJ2]

DL does need more planes to produce more revenue, but the problem is paying for them. When you are hemorraghing billions of dollars every year, it's pretty hard to finance new planes. DL is supposed to take more 737 deliveries next year, but if DL is still racking up huge losses in '06, you can expect many of those deliveries to be deferred or sold to another party.

Yet DAL has enough money to spend on about $500M in cash payments for RJs this year alone and those only move 50-70 passengers at a pop at a higher cost/seat mile. At the end of the day, if DAL continues to lose billions and DAL's liquidity drops, there will be no more mainline aircraft or RJs. One only needs to look at Indy to see what happens when your RJ footprint is too big. RJs are good aircraft, but they need a large mainline fleet to feed otherwise their just costly executive jets in a price sensitive market.

 

[On Your Six]

DL does need more planes to produce more revenue, but the problem is paying for them. When you are hemorraghing billions of dollars every year, it's pretty hard to finance new planes. DL is supposed to take more 737 deliveries next year, but if DL is still racking up huge losses in '06, you can expect many of those deliveries to be deferred or sold to another party.

Thank God that Fred GREED bought all of those hundreds of RJs - what would happen if Delta didn't own those RJs???? It might be closer to a profit. Selling off ASA or Comair and shelving them with some of the debt they deserve (attributed to their RJs) would be a good start.