Delta to hire again?

[Superpilot92]

So far we only believe that your NWA 742s are getting the axe soon. We know that some MD88s and some 757/767s have been parked, but not to a large extent. It would be far more expensive to park the 742s after SOC, since those pilots would bump many more pilots at many more bases, causing a lot more training total. The only reason to keep the 742s right now is for the NRT slots, and they may be trying to get waivers to keep them, since very few airlines out there have the ability to expand there anyway. Every airline is pulling back, and most cargo carriers have parked their 742s already or are about to.

Bye Bye--General Lee

I don't disagree that it will be going away. I have been hearing "within 12 months". The good news is that is plenty of time for us to draw that back throughout the year as people move into other aircraft. we will be able to absorb those pilots into other aircraft easily with the increased staffing requirements that are coming for us. Lets just hope the economy stabilizes at least.

Also the 737's and 777's are coming which will help overall staffing also.

 

[Superpilot92]

We have to feed our INTL connections, and we still have to compete with Airtran and other LCCs. Look at Virgin America and Jetblue expanding on transcons (JB announced BOS/JFK to LAX today). We have to compete still with those guys. We may not have 7 or 8 flights a day on those types of routes, but we will have a presence. (I don't know if we will do BOS-LAX though--we used to) 100 RJs are gone, with more to come. I see fewer frequecies overall, with fewer RJs and more DC9s covering. That alone will unclog the airways and save us even more money.

Bye Bye--General Lee

agree 100%

 

[General Lee]

The current losses are due to past fuel prices that were hedged. It only gets better for us as time goes forward. Q1 will have another loss, no doubt. After that, even huge amounts of open seats will be ofset by lower gas prices. Yet, those times (Spring and Summer) are historically our best times, and the Rich and Famous who used to fly corporate jets everywhere may actually have to shame themselves on our first class seats to Europe or the Caribbean this year. RA stated a "solid" profit for 09 as a whole year, but the beginning will be a bit rough. Had he stated a possible major loss this year after our bad year last year, then I would think more people would be more nervous. We know a bad economy means lower fuel prices, which means lower fixed costs for us at the same time.


Bye Bye--General Lee

 

[JohnDoe]

Sept 1st, 2001. After the SLI, lots of DL 07 hires were merged in with FNWA guys hired before that date. The only time those guys wil be protected would be AFTER SOC--which DL is aiming for Jan 1st, 10 but more realistically sometime in the Q1 of 2010.

That touches on why I am asking the question.

Somebody stated that Dal could furlough down to near the 10500 pilot mark and not hit the scope trigger. I am a pre 9-01 hire, and they don't even have to hit less than roughly 11600 before they hit that date of hire and the resultant trigger.

If that trigger date of 09-01-01 applies to everbody, and it applies as of right now, then they are already -very- close to the trigger on the FNWA side.

So, to try and figure this out: If they furlough prior to SOC from the FNWA side, will that scope trigger apply?? As I stated, they are already very close to it.

 

[General Lee]

That touches on why I am asking the question.

Somebody stated that Dal could furlough down to near the 10500 pilot mark and not hit the scope trigger. I am a pre 9-01 hire, and they don't even have to hit less than roughly 11600 before they hit that date of hire and the resultant trigger.

If that trigger date of 09-01-01 applies to everbody, and it applies as of right now, then they are already -very- close to the trigger on the FNWA side.

So, to try and figure this out: If they furlough prior to SOC from the FNWA side, will that scope trigger apply?? As I stated, they are already very close to it.

You are correct. But, the only mass parkings we have heard about that could happen soon would be the 742 fleet, which of course is on the FNWA side. Pre SOC--that affects only the FNWA side. After SOC, then it would affect both sides, but then again the Scope limit would expose about 400 total pilots. The DL side is still getting new planes this year--5 or 6 777s and 4 or 5 737-700s also.


Bye Bye--General Lee

 

[ACL65PILOT]

You are correct Super. It makes a lot more sense to get rid of FDL guys first. Problem with getting rid of anyone pre-SOC is this. We will need to bring your staffing model up to ours by Bid Period 5. To do that you need to use the guys on the master list. Because of the way that this whole cookie crumbles, it makes furloughing more than a few hundred a real money loser.
In essence you could furlough them for about 12 months before you would need to bring a few back to get to this level. Now there are a few variables that have not yet to be determined. They could in essence get the NWA group to the required staffing by pulling back more flying than has been previously announced, this making the theorized furloughs pre SOC last a longer duration.
Like I said, there is a lot to play out. Problem with doing any sort of furlough pre SOC is this. The company does not have any clue where the staffing requirements will be for this summer much less post-SOC. They may be willing to read the tea leaves on any given day and make a best guess, but it may cost them a lot in training cost.

From the looks of how we are setting ourselves up for the summer flying, we could easily furlough from both sides with out much training cost this fall. Even you Super can admit that.
They do not have to pull any of the 757'd out of the desert if the loads to not improve.

 

[ACL65PILOT]

That touches on why I am asking the question.

Somebody stated that Dal could furlough down to near the 10500 pilot mark and not hit the scope trigger. I am a pre 9-01 hire, and they don't even have to hit less than roughly 11600 before they hit that date of hire and the resultant trigger.

If that trigger date of 09-01-01 applies to everbody, and it applies as of right now, then they are already -very- close to the trigger on the FNWA side.

So, to try and figure this out: If they furlough prior to SOC from the FNWA side, will that scope trigger apply?? As I stated, they are already very close to it.

True Pre-SOC not true Post-SOC. See they can furlough out of the master seniority list order before SOC. After SOC they are bound by the list and the order it is in. It would make sense to do a off the cuff furlough before SOC, but it may cost them more to do so. The loads and time will tell.

 

[ACL65PILOT]

Thats why scope is there is it not?

They will put 70 seats in the jets and bring them on line. Then they will ask the union for relief on the hull restriction. We say OK, they add six seats in each jet, they get what they want and we loose more mainline jets with out knowing what hit us.

 

[JohnDoe]

You are correct. But, the only mass parkings we have heard about that could happen soon would be the 742 fleet, which of course is on the FNWA side. Pre SOC--that affects only the FNWA side. After SOC, then it would affect both sides, but then again the Scope limit would expose about 400 total pilots.

I understand which pilots get the boot depending which side the aircraft are parked from pre SOC.

What I am trying to say is that, using your example of the 74-200: Prior to SOC, if FNWA furloughs a number of pilots equal to the number of pilots that will be displaced from that aircraft, they will already hit the trigger, and the resultant penalty associated with it. Is that correct?

Even after SOC, they only have to go roughly 500 pilots down the list to hit 09-01 hires.

 

[Superpilot92]

They will put 70 seats in the jets and bring them on line. Then they will ask the union for relief on the hull restriction. We say OK, they add six seats in each jet, they get what they want and we loose more mainline jets with out knowing what hit us.

the 70 and 76 seat limit is just about capped. Giving anything further on scope relief is ridiculous especially if their is a staffing issue on the mainline side. Hopefully the economy will keep the company on its toes. They haven't offered any leaves to pilots yet so thats a good sign. I personally think we have just as many reasons why not to furlough as we do to cut people so hopefully we dont get any more reasons to make the issue lopsided.

 

[JohnDoe]

They will put 70 seats in the jets and bring them on line. Then they will ask the union for relief on the hull restriction. We say OK, they add six seats in each jet, they get what they want and we loose more mainline jets with out knowing what hit us.

I definately agree on this one, and it pretty much renders any discussion of scope triggers/flowdowns a moot point. They are but an LOA away from going bye-bye.

ALPA has already demonstrated that when the company yells "boo," they pee their pants.

Examples on the FNWA side include allowing compass to be created, the whole bankruptcy TA in general, allowing flex-up while pilot's were on furlough (even though prohibited in the contract). On the FDAL side we have the act of allowing retired pilots to come back and fly while pilots were on furlough.

Oh, and now they want to allow retired pilots to be able to collect their full pensions, and come back and fly part-time.

 

[regionalcap]

Enough with the furlough talk already. You guys are going to force me to crack open some cold ones in the fridge. :beer:

 

[Superpilot92]

I definately agree on this one, and it pretty much renders any discussion of scope triggers/flowdowns a moot point. They are but an LOA away from going bye-bye.

ALPA has already demonstrated that when the company yells "boo," they pee their pants.

Examples on the FNWA side include allowing compass to be created, the whole bankruptcy TA in general, allowing flex-up while pilot's were on furlough (even though prohibited in the contract). On the FDAL side we have the act of allowing retired pilots to come back and fly while pilots were on furlough.

Oh, and now they want to allow retired pilots to be able to collect their full pensions, and come back and fly part-time.

On a side note the Compass flowthrough MAY end up being the thorn in mgmts side keeping them FROM furloughing.

 

[DYLIN]

On a side note the Compass flowthrough MAY end up being the thorn in mgmts side keeping them FROM furloughing.

I got to thinking . . . say they had to furlough 500, and 300 said they wanna go to Compass (for reasons we cannot fathom ).

Some would start training right away but clearly they cannot train more than about 20-30 a month to go to Compass due to the number of sims, instructors, and check airman available.

Would the ones waiting collect min guarantee somewhere while they wait? That is a heck of a lot of money if you add it all up, not to mention the cost of training each pilot and then re-training Compass pilots a year or two or three later as they come back in and meanwhile mainline recalls are ALSO back in THEIR training at that time. Wow. Big bucks.

Hopefully none of it happens.

 

[JohnDoe]

On a side note the Compass flowthrough MAY end up being the thorn in mgmts side keeping them FROM furloughing.

That's what I am trying to say......The flowdown is but an LOA away from going buh-bye. Ie: not the deterrent you may think.

Either that, or the company simply ignores the flowdown, and tells alpa to "grieve" it. 6,7,8 years later it might get resolved. Meanwhile, you're on the street. You do realize don't you, that every pilot furloughed after 9-11 was denied the furlough pay in the contract. Some of them won the grievance, yet here it is 8 years later, and they still do not have their money. (For you DAL folks, that denial was courtesy of your RA)

 

[FBN0223]

On a side note the Compass flowthrough MAY end up being the thorn in mgmts side keeping them FROM furloughing.

Yes. For the record, NWA mgt. had discussed furloughs a few months back, but decided that since they would have to furlough everyone at Compass and retrain an entire airline, the furlough idea was nixed.

I don't know how you guys are doing on staffing on other fleets/positions but the MSP757FO is definitely over-staffed.

 

[Superpilot92]

Yes. For the record, NWA mgt. had discussed furloughs a few months back, but decided that since they would have to furlough everyone at Compass and retrain an entire airline, the furlough idea was nixed.

I don't know how you guys are doing on staffing on other fleets/positions but the MSP757FO is definitely over-staffed.

we're short enough on the Bus that i am holding a temp block and i have been here only a year..

 

[FBN0223]

we're short enough on the Bus that i am holding a temp block and i have been here only a year..

Temp blocks are always a good sign. Maybe there's hope.

 

[nonstop]

Enough with the furlough talk already. You guys are going to force me to crack open some cold ones in the fridge. :beer:

Seriously.

We need more people like Superpilot in this thread to keep the spirits up.

 

[Superpilot92]

Seriously.

We need more people like Superpilot in this thread to keep the spirits up.

:beer: Glass Half Full Fellas :beer:

 

[FBN0223]

Seriously.

We need more people like Superpilot in this thread to keep the spirits up.

That's why he's SUPERPILOT!!!!

 

[qxdash8]

Seriously.

We need more people like Superpilot in this thread to keep the spirits up.

His avatar helps to keep my spirits up!

 

[Razor_B]

Here's some good news for you to think about. In this survey 86% of small business owners expect business to be as good or better next year. Small business is vital to our economy and I put more stock in a scientific survey than anecdotal evidence heard at my corner coffee shop.


UPS Survey Takes Pulse of Small Business Owners

ATLANTA, Jan. 21, 2009 - Amid a steady stream of grim economic news, a large majority of small-business owners are optimistic about their company's financial future, according to two nationwide surveys sponsored by UPS (NYSE: UPS). In the first UPS Business Monitor United States, conducted between September and October last year, 91 percent of small-business owners or managers said they expect their company to be in the same or better financial shape in a year than it is today. A follow-up survey, conducted in mid-December after economic conditions worsened, showed only a small decline in the first survey's optimism, with 86 percent of small-businesses owners expecting their company to be in the same or better financial shape in one year.
"Despite incredible changes in the economy, small businesses still see vibrant opportunities," said Jim Beach, a professor of entrepreneurship at the University of Tennessee. "That eternal optimism and entrepreneurial spirit in the face of adversity is an asset that bodes well for the future of our economy." More comments from Jim Beach
Importantly, this optimism is rooted in realism as small-business owners surveyed do not project a speedy economic recovery. In the first survey, almost half (47 percent) of small-business owners said they believe that the U.S. economy will begin to improve in 2010 or later. That number climbed to 67 percent in the December survey.
Small-business leaders also are optimistic about their workforce prospects. Two-thirds (66 percent) of respondents in the first survey said they plan to keep the same size workforce for the next 12 months. Almost one-quarter (24 percent) said they will increase their workforce; only 10 percent said they plan to reduce it. A greater number of small-business owners in the second survey expect their workforces to remain the same. Almost three-quarters (74 percent) said they expect their workforce to remain the same this year, 13 percent expect to increase their workforce and 12 percent said they plan to cut staff.
"Small businesses are the key to capitalism and to the job market," noted Prof. Jeff Rosensweig of Emory University's Goizueta Business School. "These UPS Business Monitors give us a great finger on the pulse of small business and these latest surveys give us reason to lighten the prevailing mood of 'gloom and doom.'"More comments from Jeff Rosensweig
Companies that trade are particularly optimistic
Small-business owners who engage in international trade were more likely to project that their business would be in a better economic position 12 months from now compared to those who did not. In the first survey, 56 percent of small-business owners who engage in cross-border trade expect their company to be in a better economic position in one year, compared to 41 percent of companies that did not trade. This gap widened in the second survey, with 62 percent of small-businesses owners who trade internationally expressing optimism compared to 39 percent of non-traders.
Despite this trade-related optimism, the majority of small businesses surveyed aren't exporting. Almost three-quarters (73 percent) of respondents do not engage - and do not plan to engage - in international trade. Unfamiliarity with global markets, language barriers and apprehension about preparing customs and other documents were among the main reasons why small-business owners say they aren't trading across borders.
"This survey shows that the vast majority of small-business owners are missing out on the key opportunities offered by international trade," said Alan Gershenhorn, UPS senior vice president of worldwide sales and marketing. "By expanding opportunities in new markets, cross-border trade can help small businesses diversify, buffering them against risk, and helping them stay strong in tough times."
Small-business owners may be particularly optimistic for one important reason: they love what they do. When asked in the first survey what else they would do if money were no object, more than one-third (37 percent) said they would continue running their businesses and 12 percent said they would invest more money in their companies. Only 13 percent said they would retire.
UPS (NYSE: UPS) is the world's largest package delivery company and a global leader in supply chain and freight services. With more than a century of experience in transportation and logistics, UPS is a leading global trade expert equipped with a broad portfolio of solutions. Headquartered in Atlanta, Ga., UPS serves more than 200 countries and territories worldwide. The company can be found on the Web at UPS.com. To get UPS news direct, visit pressroom.ups.com/RSS.
About the UPS Business Monitor
The UPS Business Monitor is currently conducted in the United States, Canada, Latin America and Asia. It is a survey of small business decision-makers to monitor their opinions on a range of business issues. The UPS Business Monitor is as an important information resource to help UPS customers stay ahead of ever-changing business trends.

# # #​

Notes about the research:
Research was conducted by TNS, a world leader in market insight and information, using a business panel.

For the first survey:

• A total of 600 telephone interviews with small business establishments in the U.S. were conducted between Sept. 19 and Oct. 13, 2008:
  • 200 interviews with companies who have 2-9 employees
  • 200 interviews with companies who have 10-49 employees
  • 200 interviews with companies who have 50-250 employees

For the second survey:

• A total of 151 telephone interviews with small business establishments in the U.S. were conducted from Dec. 15-19, 2008.
  • 51 interviews with companies who have 2-9 employees
  • 50 interviews with companies who have 10-49 employees
  • 50 interviews with companies who have 50-250 employees

For both surveys:

• Respondents had to be extremely or very knowledgeable about their company's overall economic position and had to be part of the decision-making process for the company.
• UPS was not identified as the sponsor of the survey
• The survey length was 11 minutes

About TNS
TNS is a global market insight and information group. Their strategic goal is to be recognized as the global leader in delivering value-added information and insights that help clients make more effective decisions. Through a network that extends across 70 countries, they are the world's foremost provider of custom research and analysis, combining in-depth industry sector understanding with world-class expertise in the areas of new product development, segmentation and positioning research, brand and advertising research and stakeholder management. They are a major supplier of consumer panel, media intelligence and internet, TV and radio audience measurement services.

 

[SpauldingSmails]

I got to thinking . . . say they had to furlough 500, and 300 said they wanna go to Compass (for reasons we cannot fathom ).

Some would start training right away but clearly they cannot train more than about 20-30 a month to go to Compass due to the number of sims, instructors, and check airman available.

Would the ones waiting collect min guarantee somewhere while they wait? That is a heck of a lot of money if you add it all up, not to mention the cost of training each pilot and then re-training Compass pilots a year or two or three later as they come back in and meanwhile mainline recalls are ALSO back in THEIR training at that time. Wow. Big bucks.

Hopefully none of it happens.

I've pondered this very same notion myself. I have a feeling (purely conjecture) that if Delta does furlough, it won't be 150 guys here, then 100 there... and so on a so forth, it'll be one huge chunk. Otherwise its total musical chairs at Compass where every furloughee claims an Embraer type rating consolation prize on their way out the door.

I don't believe the contract states anything about pay guarantee while awaiting a Compass seat.

 

[ACL65PILOT]

Correct if they furlough they will do what they need to do almost at one. The displacements on both sides of the fence are setting up for that.
We on the DAL side are just under 400 people fat for the first quarter. It is not enough to justify a furlough from this side. In essence they need to flush the entire CPZ list and then some to make it worthwhile. Also, of note the CPZ flow adds a good amount of time to the ROI (Return on Investment) to a furlough. Add good things from a pilots perspective.
The wild card is this economy. It is still tanking, which may result in a further pull back. If that happens, I think that we have hit the magic number so to speak.
That said, the best guess that may in the know have stated is a couple hundred if we did need to furlough. But then again, there are only plans to plans. As I said a few months ago, more will be known in a Month or two.

 

[p3flteng]

Yea I saw that, what is up with that crap? Retired means retired in my book, these Jagoffs will be slowing seniority progression for the whole group, not to mention what would happen to the bottom of the list, can you picture that, pilots fuloughed while we have part time retirees working.....F That.

 

[ACL65PILOT]

My question is that if they get this passed are they still active member is the union. DO they get a vote? If so they will vote to pillage the bottom of the list and flying to get more out of the career for themselves.

 

[Fly4hire]

My question is that if they get this passed are they still active member is the union. DO they get a vote? If so they will vote to pillage the bottom of the list and flying to get more out of the career for themselves.

I wouldn't sweat this one too much. It was approved as "study the concept and report back" by our previous MEC - I think it's probably DOA from the DALPA side.

 

[FBN0223]

I wouldn't sweat this one too much. It was approved as "study the concept and report back" by our previous MEC - I think it's probably DOA from the DALPA side.

You're right, it probably will be DOA. But it's not dead yet and those that haven't written their representatives should probably do so.

I thought Compass would be DOA as well and look what happened. Through fear, corruption, lies and confusion a new airline was born.

 

[NuGuy]

The wild card is this economy. It is still tanking, which may result in a further pull back.

Heyas,

No wild card at all. It's a joker. The talking heads on CNBC are talking in circles because they have no idea what's going on.

Once Wall Street was converted to just another Las Vegas strip, and that scam sold to the public, you could bank on the result.

So you say to yourself "if Wall Street is just a Vegas casino, why isn't the 'house' making any money?" The problem is that the pretty boy Ivy League grads running the asylum never watched "Scarface", so they never learned that all important lesson: Never do your own blow.

Hilarity ensued.

Nu