Delta to hire again?

[General Lee]

Easy Children........

Heyas,

Agreed. Despite what the pundits say, domestic and international traffic has fallen off a cliff. Oil could be free and it wouldn't make any difference. There are no passengers at any price.

The recession is going to deepen into a full blown depression, with out of control inflation. Expect double digit interest rates and unemployment numbers. Think 1977 except that this time even the rich people are broke.

My guess: Parking another 20-30 mainline aircraft, AT A MINIMUM, plus a WHOLE passel of DCI aircraft.

Furloughs later in 09. DAL side first, then NWA side 2-3 months later.

No recalls until mid 2011, at the earliest.

Nu

Come on now. Easy. We all know that late Jan and into Feb is normally slow, since kids are back in school and Spring Break is a couple months away. Yes, the economy is tanking, but oil is down and our hedges go down after Q1. Here is what Ed Bastain said 10 days ago:


Delta president confident despite global drop in airline revenue

By Freesun New s at 18 January, 2009, 10:26 am

Delta Air Lines President Edward Bastian predicts a 10% drop in worldwide airline revenues this year — but it would take a 20% drop at Delta to wipe out an estimated $5 billion the airline will save as a result of lower fuel costs. Bastian also said his company’s October merger with Northwest Airlines would save billions in operating costs, helping the new Delta to ride out the downturn. “We are well prepared both through our cost structure and merger benefits … as well as the fuel savings to be able to withstand the challenges and actually come out in a better spot,” he told reporters in Tokyo on Thursday.



I talked with a buddy of mine in the CP office here in ATL and there was a large conference call today with all base CPs and Flight Ops managers (all FNWA bases included too), and no mention of furloughs at all. Apparently they are still aiming for early 2010 for SOC, and increasing DC9 hours flown per day. Yes, the economy is bad and there are lots of empty seats out there, but remember what usually happens in late Jan EVERY YEAR. Not the busiest times for any airline. Delta has always been a big Spring and Summer airline, and it will probably continue that way. If we have a very slow Summer, then things could change, but I think we have already cut capacity and by that time our exposure to high fuel hedges will be decreased. RA did state a solid year profit for 09, so we'll just have to see how bad the recession will be.


Bye Bye--General Lee

 

[anewunion]

O .K . It's official, we are heading out of the recession.

Everyone knows that by the time the common folk (Airline pilots) realizes that it's a recession, it's almost over.

(Kinda like buying a good stock)

 

[ACL65PILOT]

Of course this is the slowest time of the year, but you need to look at the year over year number. I can tell you that we are off over 10% from our 2007 numbers, and the only thing saving this industry as a whole is the price of crude.
If we were at the levels of last summer most if not all of us would be in CH 11. The restructuring that was done has save our bacon today.
It is a difficult time, do doubt about it. We better hope for decent spring and summer numbers.

 

[FBN0223]

I talked with a buddy of mine in the CP office here in ATL and there was a large conference call today with all base CPs and Flight Ops managers (all FNWA bases included too), and no mention of furloughs at all. Apparently they are still aiming for early 2010 for SOC, and increasing DC9 hours flown per day. Yes, the economy is bad and there are lots of empty seats out there, but remember what usually happens in late Jan EVERY YEAR. Not the busiest times for any airline. Delta has always been a big Spring and Summer airline, and it will probably continue that way. If we have a very slow Summer, then things could change, but I think we have already cut capacity and by that time our exposure to high fuel hedges will be decreased. RA did state a solid year profit for 09, so we'll just have to see how bad the recession will be.


Bye Bye--General Lee

I don't think we would hear the word "furlough" from management until they actually announce, "We're furloughing ___pilots."

Hopefully, staffing reductions will come via early retirement incentives vs furloughs but I do think we are headed for a staffing level of around 10,000-10,500 active pilots.

 

[General Lee]

I don't think we would hear the word "furlough" from management until they actually announce, "We're furloughing ___pilots."

Hopefully, staffing reductions will come via early retirement incentives vs furloughs but I do think we are headed for a staffing level of around 10,000-10,500 active pilots.

Is that a "gut" feeling, or something more than that? I know there will be some FNWA retirements sooner than any FDAL retirements, but probably not to the magnitude that you are suggesting. This recession is forcast to turnaround next year. Fingers crossed, but I don't really know where you are coming up with your numbers FBN. They would have to get rid of all of those people pre-SOC, or they will also have to get rid of 6 seats out of every 76 seat RJ additionally. Post SOC, that would mean about 400 people total or loss of those seats and associated revenue and time.


Bye Bye--General Lee

 

[ACL65PILOT]

Lets put it this way. If you furlough the "new hires" of 07 and 08 you get quite close to the 10500 mark. It is really the only way they could do this and not take a kit with the Scope seat trigger. I can see them delaying SOC to accomplish this.
That said, we are in no way short enough to do this. Now cut another 12-18% off the the schedule and you are right there.
Needless to say, times are tough, but sleep well at night, there is nothing you or I can do to change this economy from the flight deck.
I am suspecting this summers to be way off, but for loads to start picking up later in the year.

 

[tbkane]

Yes 10,500 would put me on the street but more importantly they can only furlough about 450 without hitting the rj rest as long as the furlough is post SOC. So unless this recession is really bad, loss of first class in ALL rj900's that DAL management wanted so bad would now make all the rj900's ver y expensive rj 700's, and they can never put those seats back in.

 

[ACL65PILOT]

Exactly TB.

I have heard some very small rumblings of some early outs, but nothing that would make it to sound like a good rumor.
There are many ways to come up with this so called 10,500 number, but there are also a lot of reasons to avoid the furlough.
I will say with out any certain info, that if I was not protected by this Seat Scope trigger post SOC, I would make sure I had my bases covered. It just makes sense. Heck, I do and I have some cushion.
We may shrink with retirements, maybe a few furloughs, but nothing more for the next few years. I have always said this, what worries me the most is when we lose the no furlough protection in the JPWA. It is weak but after two years they could park all of the 9's or 88's for that fact, and the bottom 450 as TB pointed out would be gone with no aircraft on order and no recourse. If that happened it would be two years before the retirements started to truly kick in.
What we have is a few years to hope and pray that we as an industry see the passenger levels of yesteryear.

 

[FBN0223]

Is that a "gut" feeling, or something more than that? I know there will be some FNWA retirements sooner than any FDAL retirements, but probably not to the magnitude that you are suggesting. This recession is forcast to turnaround next year. Fingers crossed, but I don't really know where you are coming up with your numbers FBN. They would have to get rid of all of those people pre-SOC, or they will also have to get rid of 6 seats out of every 76 seat RJ additionally. Post SOC, that would mean about 400 people total or loss of those seats and associated revenue and time.


Bye Bye--General Lee

It's definitely something more. Firstly, we may have the ability to reduce staffing dramatically without furloughs but staffing levels will be reduced.

Why 10,500?

1) The economy.

2)Freighters going away. That's 300 plus pilot position gone. Many will retire or be forced to retire, i.e. over 60 SO's who missed out on 65.

3) Synergies. When RA and crew talk about 1+1=3, they should also tell us how 1+1=1. In other words, DL and NW are not going to compete against themselves. LAX HNL for example, now only Delta service where there was DL and NW. Next there's the argument that both companies have little overlap. True. But in most cases, DL and NW still compete against each other, they just get you to your destination via different routing. Ever go on Orbitz or Travelocity and see DL and NW as two different options on most routes? Synergies equal efficiencies and doing more with less.

4) DC-9. Ok, we're increasing the DC-9 utilization but at the same decreasing the B757 flying. Probably will be a wash in staffing. You'll see the DC-9 go away in a few years and we've yet to see an aircraft reach the drawing board that has the interest of DL. DC-9s equal another 650 positions.

5) The economy. Did I say that already? Most forecasters that I have been listening to say hold on for the next two years and that's if all the pieces fall into place to get us out of this disaster.

 

[Monster Buck]

We are going to hire 281 pilots. How do I know?, I pulled it out of my azz and qualified it with my vast knowledge of economics I learned from reading the USA Today while flying. BTW I am smarter than the the FED that people here say doesn't know what he is doing. If I were in charge boy would I fix things. Also that person people make fun of by sarcastically saying "he will save us" who happens to be a very decorated Harvard grad and teacher. But I'm sure that all those smart folks here saying that will show him how it is done. Maybe AC will go ask all the inside people he is so graced to know the TRUTH and we can all be spared from quessing and finally have the "inside scoop". I'm sure we can take it to the bank.
All quess work based on probably 5% of the economics behind the real decision All the while we think we have around 80-90 % of it. What a joke.