Agreed. Despite what the pundits say, domestic and international traffic has fallen off a cliff. Oil could be free and it wouldn't make any difference. There are no passengers at any price.
The recession is going to deepen into a full blown depression, with out of control inflation. Expect double digit interest rates and unemployment numbers. Think 1977 except that this time even the rich people are broke.
My guess: Parking another 20-30 mainline aircraft, AT A MINIMUM, plus a WHOLE passel of DCI aircraft.
Furloughs later in 09. DAL side first, then NWA side 2-3 months later.
No recalls until mid 2011, at the earliest.
Force Majure, baby.
Look around. The economy is in a flat spin, and it's heading out to sea.
Went to my favorite mom-n-pop for lunch today. They had 12 people in for lunch. 12. An this is in a metro area. People are hoarding cash hunkering down.
Pay off your debt by any means necessary. It's gonna get ugly.
The Fed is worried about deflation, not inflation. In addition to that, there will be no double digit interest rates. I doubt very seriously the fed will even touch interest rates until the second half of the year, if at all in 09. I am not sure if your post was a joke, or if you were being serious. No one knows what the capacity changes will be, but as far as the economics side, your info is way off.
It was a guesstimate for both sides.
There is a lot in play here. See if they furlough now, then the would have to bring people back after SOC to staff for bid period 5. There are more issues than that, but the simple approach that most airlines take is not the case here. It depends on a few factors.
Time will tell but as I said yesterday loads are way off.