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Delta to hire again?

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I think that if your a flight attendant looking for a job then you might be in luck. I would like nothing more than to have new pilot classes again but I just don't see it happening. Sorry to be a Debbie Downer
 
Heyas,

Agreed. Despite what the pundits say, domestic and international traffic has fallen off a cliff. Oil could be free and it wouldn't make any difference. There are no passengers at any price.

The recession is going to deepen into a full blown depression, with out of control inflation. Expect double digit interest rates and unemployment numbers. Think 1977 except that this time even the rich people are broke.

My guess: Parking another 20-30 mainline aircraft, AT A MINIMUM, plus a WHOLE passel of DCI aircraft.

Furloughs later in 09. DAL side first, then NWA side 2-3 months later.

No recalls until mid 2011, at the earliest.

Nu
 
NuGuy said:
Heyas,

Agreed. Despite what the pundits say, domestic and international traffic has fallen off a cliff. Oil could be free and it wouldn't make any difference. There are no passengers at any price.

The recession is going to deepen into a full blown depression, with out of control inflation. Expect double digit interest rates and unemployment numbers. Think 1977 except that this time even the rich people are broke.

My guess: Parking another 20-30 mainline aircraft, AT A MINIMUM, plus a WHOLE passel of DCI aircraft.

Furloughs later in 09. DAL side first, then NWA side 2-3 months later.

No recalls until mid 2011, at the earliest.

Nu
Click to expand...

The Fed is worried about deflation, not inflation. In addition to that, there will be no double digit interest rates. I doubt very seriously the fed will even touch interest rates until the second half of the year, if at all in 09. I am not sure if your post was a joke, or if you were being serious. No one knows what the capacity changes will be, but as far as the economics side, your info is way off.
 
Force Majure, baby.

Look around. The economy is in a flat spin, and it's heading out to sea.

Went to my favorite mom-n-pop for lunch today. They had 12 people in for lunch. 12. An this is in a metro area. People are hoarding cash hunkering down.

Pay off your debt by any means necessary. It's gonna get ugly.

Nu
 
NuGuy said:
Force Majure, baby.

Look around. The economy is in a flat spin, and it's heading out to sea.

Went to my favorite mom-n-pop for lunch today. They had 12 people in for lunch. 12. An this is in a metro area. People are hoarding cash hunkering down.

Pay off your debt by any means necessary. It's gonna get ugly.

Nu
Click to expand...

But I thought the "chosen one" was gonna save us!!!!!!!
 
skywdriver said:
The Fed is worried about deflation, not inflation. In addition to that, there will be no double digit interest rates. I doubt very seriously the fed will even touch interest rates until the second half of the year, if at all in 09. I am not sure if your post was a joke, or if you were being serious. No one knows what the capacity changes will be, but as far as the economics side, your info is way off.
Click to expand...

Heyas,

The Fed is full of crap, and everybody knows it. The reason there is deflationary pressure in the short term is that everyone is sitting on PILES of inventory, and they need to move it at ANY cost.

Once that is gone, say, in six months or so, the brunt of the "free" money rolling off the printing presses will just be hitting the monetary system. Inflation will go into orbit, and from there, warp drive.

Just to add to the meltdown: Some smart people say that gold is oversold, and there's actually not enough gold in existance or in the pipline to cover what investors actually though they had bought.

If true, and people figure out that the only "real" gold is what you hold in your hand, that's when the REAL panic starts, except this time, it will be completely justifed.

2009 is going to make '08 look like the 80's.

Nu
 
Yes, and no. I read a lot of the same things you do Nu, and subscribe to some of the principles, but I am no where this doom and gloom.
You sound like one of the guys on the ALPA forums. A FDL guy.

I do agree that the fed has no idea what it is doing.
 
Heyas ACL,

I'm not just reading it. I see a lot of "old timers" around my neighborhood who've made some serious cash.

These are guys who made money the old school way...starting out small, then pulling themselves up OR by picking up the family business and are 2nd, 3rd or even 4th generation.

We're not talking about the old man that runs the five and dime store...we're talking about car dealerships, construction companies, supply/wholesaling firms...50-100 million dollar a year outfits, the backbone of the economy. THESE guys are REALLY worried about their survival....for the first time in their lives.

The Fed is out of touch. They have no idea what is going on at the most basic level.

Nu
 
if we have double digit interest rates in six months due to inflationary pressure, we will all have a lot more to worry about than making our personal economic predictions on FI. i don't think it will happen, but i was dumb enough to become an airline pilot, so that probably says enough right there. i do agree that we are in a bit of a rut, but i am personally more worried about what will happen in 20 years from our ever increasing debt than in the next year. hoping for the best and watching the whole show from the sidelines with a bottle of makers mark. the life of a furloughed airline pilot.
 
The key will be future bookings. Most of my flights have been half full. I did a DFW turn and we were half empty. That make me think uh-oh, not good. We will find out in a couple of months what the company's decision regarding furloughs.

Until we get a Single Operating Certificate, from which side we furlough from will be up to the company. Who side will they park? Who knows.
 
My bet is that Delta goes down to around a 10500 pilot airline. I can show you the math on how I arrived at that number but that's another thread.

No hiring for a few years.
 
It was a guesstimate for both sides.

There is a lot in play here. See if they furlough now, then the would have to bring people back after SOC to staff for bid period 5. There are more issues than that, but the simple approach that most airlines take is not the case here. It depends on a few factors.

Time will tell but as I said yesterday loads are way off.
 
"The recession is going to deepen into a full blown depression, with out of control inflation. Expect double digit interest rates and unemployment numbers. Think 1977 except that this time even the rich people are broke."

Sir,

This is FlightInfo.

We have NO room for Reality on this Forum.

Please take your coherent and cogent thoughts elsewhere.

Harumph!

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JN99jshaQbY

YKMKR
 
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ACL65PILOT said:
It was a guesstimate for both sides.

There is a lot in play here. See if they furlough now, then the would have to bring people back after SOC to staff for bid period 5. There are more issues than that, but the simple approach that most airlines take is not the case here. It depends on a few factors.

Time will tell but as I said yesterday loads are way off.
Click to expand...

Or they can cut more flying from the NWA side leading up to bid period 5 to bring staffing in line. This is more in line with current DAL (ex-NWA) management via history.

Schwanker
 
NuGuy said:
Heyas,

Agreed. Despite what the pundits say, domestic and international traffic has fallen off a cliff. Oil could be free and it wouldn't make any difference. There are no passengers at any price.

The recession is going to deepen into a full blown depression, with out of control inflation. Expect double digit interest rates and unemployment numbers. Think 1977 except that this time even the rich people are broke.

My guess: Parking another 20-30 mainline aircraft, AT A MINIMUM, plus a WHOLE passel of DCI aircraft.

Furloughs later in 09. DAL side first, then NWA side 2-3 months later.

No recalls until mid 2011, at the earliest.

Nu
Click to expand...

Doom and gloom, even the most conservative forecasts show our economy improving in late 09 or early 2010. Unemployment hits its high of 8-9% in 2010 and there is no way we see double digit interest rates. I am not the smartest but I do know not to fall into this over-hyped fear of a new great depression. Will it be a bad recession? Yes, but we will not be re-living the early 1930s. As an Obama supporter I have not used "chosen one" to describe our current president, the only people who use that term for him are the unimformed hard core right wingers. American enginuity will save us as is always does, Obama is just one man that will be much better for us than GWB but not as great as a Reagan or Lincoln IMHO. You could be right and in which case I will admit it with humility but until that day I am cautiously optimistic.
 
Nu;
I agree that there are a lot of established businesses that are worried. Many industries are going through what we have gone though.
Take for example the car industry. They are for the first time right sizing the dealerships. It is difficult, but necessary.
Many other companies are position to weather this well. I know of many that are making the difficult cut to do so.
It will be difficult but I think that we will make it though this.
 
FBN0223 said:
My bet is that Delta goes down to around a 10500 pilot airline. I can show you the math on how I arrived at that number but that's another thread.

No hiring for a few years.
Click to expand...


Get rid of the 9's in a few years and you are very close to the number. With early outs etc it would mean minimal furloughs.
 
cybourg10 said:
Doom and gloom, even the most conservative forecasts show our economy improving in late 09 or early 2010. Unemployment hits its high of 8-9% in 2010 and there is no way we see double digit interest rates. I am not the smartest but I do know not to fall into this over-hyped fear of a new great depression. Will it be a bad recession? Yes, but we will not be re-living the early 1930s. As an Obama supporter I have not used "chosen one" to describe our current president, the only people who use that term for him are the unimformed hard core right wingers. American enginuity will save us as is always does, Obama is just one man that will be much better for us than GWB but not as great as a Reagan or Lincoln IMHO. You could be right and in which case I will admit it with humility but until that day I am cautiously optimistic.
Click to expand...

Ostritch head, meet sand.

Airlines are a harbinger of business. No loads = no future business.

Where I live is also a tell tale sign of the economy. There are a LOT of boat dealers, construction people and other luxury providers out of business down here.

That means a lot of broke, ex-rich people, and a LOT of out of work middle class people that use to work for them. This trickle down WILL hurt. I called out the housing crisis 8 months before it happened by watching the same signs. Ignore at your own peril.

Maybe Mr. O is going to wave his magic wand and kiss our knees and make it all better, but I'm kinda doubting it.

I'll say it again. Save money, get out of debt by any means possible. Put a month's worth (three is better) of pay into CASH (as in currency) and put it somewhere safe. Gold works, too, but get the actual, physical metal...not some worthless paper.

Watch the movie "Rollover" if you want any idea what's coming our way.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ju1qdHhdQQk&feature=related

Nu
 
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They say "we" are parking 40-50 mainline jets. The big question is whether they'll be Red side DC-9s or blue side Mad Dogs...

I am sure the 747-200s are in that number too.
 
These are the ones that have been announced previously.

Per this report, (8-K) there is nothing new. That is not to say that there will not be another cut back.
 
Helos2Galaxy said:
They say "we" are parking 40-50 mainline jets. The big question is whether they'll be Red side DC-9s or blue side Mad Dogs...

I am sure the 747-200s are in that number too.
Click to expand...


Not sure it will be either the 88's or the 9's. With high fuel costs the widebodies are more effective. With low fuel costs the narrow bodys are the way to go. Expect to see more 75's and the like to be parked - if they park anymore.
 
NuGuy said:
I'll say it again. Save money, get out of debt by any means possible. Put a month's worth (three is better) of pay into CASH (as in currency) and put it somewhere safe. Gold works, too, but get the actual, physical metal...not some worthless paper.Nu
Click to expand...

Why should you worry about paying off debt if your so worried about the economy that your stock piling commemorative Obama gold coins? I mean who cares that you owe Chase or GMAC a couple grand if your out trying to buy bread with gold?
 

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