Delta TA impact on Delta Connection...

[JettBoii]

4.6 50 sweaters for every 76 seater? Am i readin that right? That's huge, with no more than 125 for the entire DCI side. That's 40 200's per carrier if that will be the way they are divided up. I'm sure it won't.

 

[CRJ puppy]

maybe. You are prob right that we will lose some. not sure where you got 60-80. My rough calculations...a reduction of 150. Remember Comair has already lost a lot of planes and slated to lose maybe 40 more. Pnl being in bk will surely play a role in this. They operate 140 ish. Seems Delta would have more control over parking more of those than just snatching them out from under skyw. But who knows? I am just guessing and trying to be optimistic. All of this is certainly above my education level.

But I did hear someone say Delta announced No 50 seaters in ATL. Anyone else heard that?

Anyone have a break down 50s already reduced and from where?

Comair will only have 16 50's by end of this August. Virtually no more to take from them. They will come from another operator.

 

[General Lee]

Well, in reality they willcome from everybody - but ASA, Skywest and Pinnacle are the biggest operators. Comair has very few left, RAH has a couple erj's. Pinnacle will clearly have the cheapest 200 operation after bankruptcy - and Delta is controlling the show over there now. They also have the newest 200's and will probably renegotiate leases as part of reorganization. That leaves us and Skywest. Which side do you think they will shrink first? There ya go. While everyone will lose 50's, I think the bulk will come from ASA when the leases expire.

You could make a case Pinnacle would lose some first, because Delta can easier shed them, but don't think our time won't come.

You are probably right. If this TA does go through, then there will also be pilot hiring as 717s, MD90s, and 737-900s continue to come on the property, along with eventual retirements. From the Airlinepilotcentral payrates page for Delta, here are the scheduled retirements at age 65:


Mandatory retirements:

2012 - 15
2013 - 87
2014 - 138
2015 - 197
2016 - 264
2017 - 358
2018 - 456
2019 - 540
2020 - 638
2021 - 818
2022 - 862
2023 - 819
2024 - 807
2025 - 716
2026 - 610
2027 - 509
2028 - 477
2029 - 473
2030 - 487
2031 - 423
2032 - 321
2033 - 252
2034 - 162
2035 - 108
2036 - 92
2037 - 47
2038 - 24



If you get in front of those numbers or in the beginning of the hiring wave, it would be a quick ride. Those retirements are at age 65, with many leaving before then. Also, the TA says at least 35% of the newhires in each class with come from ALPA DCI carriers. And, when senior widebody Captains retire, a lot of people move up the ladder. At SWA, when a Captain retires, one FO moves up, and then they hire a new guy. When a legacy Captain leaves at the top, there are multiple upgrades, FO's moving up to larger planes, and then a newhire.


Bye Bye---General Lee

 

[Godfather]

I can't believe I'm saying this but the General could be my very good friend now...
sarcasm of course...

If the TA goes thru, then Dear General, could you walk my resume in? (wink..wink).

 

[titans10]

Whoever agrees to swap 200's for 76 seaters will get them. They can always redo the lease agreemsnts. PNCL has the newer ones. That is good for them. How many 200 does expressjet have? I can see a swap for them and skywest. With financing coming from skywest.

Just a rumor.

 

[cbrown1]

Whoever agrees to swap 200's for 76 seaters will get them. They can always redo the lease agreemsnts. PNCL has the newer ones. That is good for them. How many 200 does expressjet have? I can see a swap for them and skywest. With financing coming from skywest.

Just a rumor.

From what I remember skywest has 150 total crj 200's. Those are split between united and delta with united having the bulk. I remember reading somewhere that 60 of the crjs were part of the delta side.

Expressjet has 110 crjs all on the delta side

Comair will have 16

Pinnacle has 125

so...

60+110+16+125=311

Delta said they want to only have 125 when everything is all said and done. So that means they will need to shed about 186 50 seat jets between 4 airlines.

If you took 50% from all 3 airlines and parking the rest of comairs 200s

What 50% from each airline looks like;
30 from skywest
55 from asa
all 16 from comair
63 from Pinnacle

that would equal 164 planes still leaving 22 planes that would need to get parked.

I Honestly don't know how they plan on doing it. I tend to think Delta pushing pinnacle into chapter 11 was part of this big plan they have.

 

[777forever]

From what I remember skywest has 150 total crj 200's. Those are split between united and delta with united having the bulk. I remember reading somewhere that 60 of the crjs were part of the delta side.

Expressjet has 110 crjs all on the delta side

Comair will have 16

Pinnacle has 125

so...

60+110+16+125=311

Delta said they want to only have 125 when everything is all said and done. So that means they will need to shed about 186 50 seat jets between 4 airlines.

If you took 50% from all 3 airlines and parking the rest of comairs 200s

What 50% from each airline looks like;
30 from skywest
55 from asa
all 16 from comair
63 from Pinnacle

that would equal 164 planes still leaving 22 planes that would need to get parked.

I Honestly don't know how they plan on doing it. I tend to think Delta pushing pinnacle into chapter 11 was part of this big plan they have.

311 +24 145s from Chautauqua, so 325 total 50 seaters. 200 have to go. Let the Hunger Games begin!

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[SpaceShipEarth]

May the odds be ever in your favor!

 

[i fly boxes]

Add 19 more to the pinnacle side via mesaba

 

[twott driver]

American Eagle flying is the big unknown in the whole scenario.

 

[cbrown1]

American Eagle flying is the big unknown in the whole scenario.

well, I doubt AMR would want to take on more 50 seaters.

 

[twott driver]

who said they needed to be 50 seaters?

 

[titans10]

I don't think delta will be financing any of those 76 seaters. I have heard it is a swap with the leaser for crj900(76seater).

 

[79%N1]

well, I doubt AMR would want to take on more 50 seaters.

Or anybody for that matter.

 

[Flyer1015]

May the odds be ever in your favor!

LMAO! +1 for Hunger Games reference!

 

[No Delay]

Any thoughts on if / how atl gate space with play in all this?

Doesn't skyw own those gates?

 

[CRJ puppy]

All the leases on Comair's remaining 50 seaters run out in the next 2-3 yrs so they are going away during this 2012-2015 time frame regardless of passage of this TA.
Aren't the CHQ leases up in 2015 or is it 2017?

 

[i fly boxes]

PNCL leases were scheduled to start expiring in 2017-2023
I see these planes going away because if the 50 seat aircraft is not economical now, there is no way it will be in 2020. The question for pinnacle is will they be replaced with something else? With only 70 total 900's up for bid if the delta TA passes, Pinnacle could be looking at a best case scenarion of a fleet of 100-125 aircraft with 2800 current pilots.

 

[79%N1]

Wasn't Pinnacle losing the 900's they currently have? Now they are getting more? This industry confuses me!

 

[JustaNumber]

I believe the individual "Airline Services Agreements" that each regional has with Delta will play the primary role in who loses their 50's. After all, each regional is under a legal contract to provide lift, and these contracts can't be unilaterally voided just because the Delta pilots want it that way. These agreement durations may or may not be concurrent with aircraft lease durations that are held between either Delta or the regional and the aircraft lessor. So it's not so important when the leases expire; it's when the "ASAs" expire.

Unfortunately, to my knowledge the exact terms of these ASAs are generally not made public, so this all is a bit speculative. One thing for certain, though, is that Pinnacle being in bankruptcy will play a large role here. An airline in bankruptcy is no longer necessarily bound to any legal agreements, so it stands to reason that if not enough ASAs expire by 2014, then the only place left to go is Pinnacle. My guess is that both Comair and Pinnacle lose ALL of their 50's.

For what it's worth (not much), Expressjet's CEO Brad Holt put out a memo today addressing the issue. He said that all the details are not yet known, but overall he sees this as good for the industry and a potential good opportunity for the company. Apparently he's not the least bit worried, for whatever reason (or he's lying about his thoughts on the deal).

 

[Oakum_Boy]

He had to spin something. XJET essentially gets nothing it bids on lately. We just lost 14 outstations to lower bidders. Places like DGS which is essentially a work-release program when they bother to show up.

Seventy 900s is hardly good news. If we want them, we'll have to take 30% pay cuts to compete with the BlowJets guys. They are the low bar that UAL and DAL now want everyone now to hit. Frankly, I'm not surprised I have to ask for their ID's when they ask for a ride. Good luck to all!

 

[centralpilot]

For what it's worth (not much), Expressjet's CEO Brad Holt put out a memo today addressing the issue. He said that all the details are not yet known, but overall he sees this as good for the industry and a potential good opportunity for the company. Apparently he's not the least bit worried, for whatever reason (or he's lying about his thoughts on the deal).

I think you read too much optimism in his statement. The way I read it as him saying there might be an opportunity, but he didn't at all mention the implications for the 200s.



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[enuffalready]

I think you read too much optimism in his statement. The way I read it as him saying there might be an opportunity, but he didn't at all mention the implications for the 200s.



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also, what do you expect him to say?..... does an Lt. look around at his platoon when they are surrounded and tell them that they are a F'd.

 

[79%N1]

I'd rather have honesty. Tell people they will downgrade or possibly lose their job so they can get an early start on a new path. All this guessing is B.S. Leadership means to give direction. The Lt. may not say we're eff'd, but he can say we're not going to make it if we stay on this path....this is where we need to go, and then lead the way.
Now, I know it's early and nobody has a clue, but we all know XJT DAL is probably the most expensive has has little to no chance of securing anything to replace the massive 50's about to be lost. I get the optimism, but I'd rather the dudes in the crows nest of the Titanic tell me we are about to hit the iceburg and the boat is going to sink. Then we could all head for the life rafts before it's too late!

 

[bigshooter107]

The only potential upside to expressjets position is skywest inc's ability to self finance alot of the potential 900 leases or purchases. Delta will be forking out a ton of capital on 717s and 737s in the near term, I doubt they want to front any more money to an RJ operator. Skywest/ expressjet also get a higher payout per block hour when they hold the tail risk, according to Brad Rich on the last earnings call..

 

[777forever]

The only potential upside to expressjets position is skywest inc's ability to self finance alot of the potential 900 leases or purchases. Delta will be forking out a ton of capital on 717s and 737s in the near term, I doubt they want to front any more money to an RJ operator. Skywest/ expressjet also get a higher payout per block hour when they hold the tail risk, according to Brad Rich on the last earnings call..

Bingo!

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[Freebrd]

Wasn't Pinnacle losing the 900's they currently have? Now they are getting more? This industry confuses me!

DAL now controls PNCL (actually all of us in a way) so I wouldn't be shocked if they get all or a majority of these planes

 

[silver02ex]

Wasn't Pinnacle losing the 900's they currently have? Now they are getting more? This industry confuses me!

Those were own by Pinnacle, they are going back to whoever finance it, along with the Q400. It possible Delta can pick them up and give it to whoever. But since Delta doesn't own it like the 200's they can't just take them from us and give it to someone else.

 

[Nevets]

I
For what it's worth (not much), Expressjet's CEO Brad Holt put out a memo today addressing the issue. He said that all the details are not yet known, but overall he sees this as good for the industry and a potential good opportunity for the company. Apparently he's not the least bit worried, for whatever reason (or he's lying about his thoughts on the deal).

Thread drift: BH is not the ExpressJet CEO. He is the president of ExpressJet. In fact, ExpressJet doesn't have a CEO. Skywest Inc has a CEO.

 

[Nevets]

I'd rather have honesty. Tell people they will downgrade or possibly lose their job so they can get an early start on a new path. All this guessing is B.S. Leadership means to give direction. The Lt. may not say we're eff'd, but he can say we're not going to make it if we stay on this path....this is where we need to go, and then lead the way.
Now, I know it's early and nobody has a clue, but we all know XJT DAL is probably the most expensive has has little to no chance of securing anything to replace the massive 50's about to be lost. I get the optimism, but I'd rather the dudes in the crows nest of the Titanic tell me we are about to hit the iceburg and the boat is going to sink. Then we could all head for the life rafts before it's too late!

You are the second lowest, according to the 15 year ASA signed as part of the Skywest purchase of ASA from Delta.