Delta TA impact on Delta Connection...

[Inconceivable]

I agree with the General and with the Delta NC. Very good scope protections are built into this TA and Delta pilots would be unwise not to vote yes and take the pay increases, upgrades, and movement that come with a short 3 year contract that moves a significant amount of block hours to mainline.

100 737-900s on the way
88 717s on the way

That's a lot of movement that will get a significant amount of folks up out of the regionals, which would be a good idea since probably one or two DCI carriers are about to get the HAMMER when it comes to cutting 50 seat jets.

...and the thirsty -88 fleet? The 752s? The 9s will be gone as 717s come on property - they are a stopgap at this point.

Look at the bulk of domestic flying: 739 replaces 75, 717 replaces 88s -- and what can be done to stop it?

 

[BarbrPole2theOM]

Is there anything that prevents the expansion of the 70+ seaters per the ta and still have as many 49 seat crj200's as they currently have?

 

[Plainsman]

I enjoy the hope of Delta Air Lines hiring in the near future and the ability to progress, but does anyone find it strange we pay ALPA to bargain for job improvements, all the while bargaining to reduce those same jobs. That flow language in that TA is bs. What are the benefits of a union like that anyway? lol insurance, a magazine, and lunch once a year.

 

[Whataboutbob]

Wow 35% of new hires will come from DCI ALPA carriers, so it would seem that if you are not ALPA you'll be in the 65% range (much better odds)! So how does this benefit an DCI ALPA group??? Thanks ALPA for helping us out, why do I pay dues again?

I thought I read also that part of that 35% includes the already in place flow agreements with Compass (20 a month?) and the 100 or so guys that have the option at Mesaba (3-5 per month). Doesn't leave much room for other ALPA DCI pilots?.

 

[777forever]

...and the thirsty -88 fleet? The 752s? The 9s will be gone as 717s come on property - they are a stopgap at this point.

Look at the bulk of domestic flying: 739 replaces 75, 717 replaces 88s -- and what can be done to stop it?

That's why the negotiating team bargained for strong language.

"First, under the current agreement the company has the authority to grow the 76 fleet to 256 hulls, under this one they are capped at 223 (153+70)

Second, The company has a financing problem with the 50 seat leases and can park them to lose 100% of potential or keep them and lose less than 100%. There are options where the lessors could take the 50 (losing some income) and replace them with 76's (and insure a longer revenue stream). IOW, the 50 IS going away, we can create an environment to accelerate that fact to our benefit our not. This agreement does...

Third, they can only take advantage of this exchange under 2 simultaneous events. They must FIRST place 1.25 NEW narrow bodies into action for each new swapped 76 AND they must remove 2-3 50's. At that point a snap shot is taken to establish a hard block hour ratio which can not be reduced. As they add more NB, they get more 76 (1.25 to 1) and they remove more 50's, a new more favorable mainline ratio is established. In the end of the day, should they chose to shrink ML for any reason, they will be required to shrink RJ by a greater degree (simple math).

 

[bigshooter107]

I thought I read also that part of that 35% includes the already in place flow agreements with Compass (20 a month?) and the 100 or so guys that have the option at Mesaba (3-5 per month). Doesn't leave much room for other ALPA DCI pilots?.

I'm thinking the 35% is a minimum...

 

[Whataboutbob]

Give me an answer to what you would do with the 50 seaters. Let's just say that someone up high did renew the leases, and now they will pay for them for 10 more years. Knowing that, what would you do with them? Just park them? Fly them at a loss? What about what to do with new CR9s? Yes, DL pilots could fly the new ones, but what about the rest of the people working with them? Rampers, flight attendants, mechanics, etc? Would they all be mainline employees? Or just the pilots? Tell me how that would work?

They are getting the 717s now, and that is good. There could be more things out there in the pipeline, but some people said the 717 order was suspect. Well, it looks official now. And, there are protections in this TA to not allow those additional RJs to come unless mainline grows. Not a great deal, but unfortunately one that you have to look at as a whole and see what is best with the situation DL has.



Bye Bye---General Lee

You guys do what you have to do with that TA but Delta has an out on a ton of 50 seaters if you don't ratify the TA. It's called the Pinnacle bankruptcy. wonder why they haven't mentioned any plans yet with Pinnacles 200 fleet thus far into the bankruptcy. They are waiting to see how your TA turns out.

If you do ratify the TA I'm guessing more 900's get dangled in front of Pinnacle pilots to get us to bite quickly on a crap concessionaire contract in bankruptcy to get shiny new airplanes to replace all those 200's (obviously more going away them being replaced) and save a few jobs more then would be lost with 200's going away without replacement aircraft. While that's going on Delta buys Pinnacle in bankruptcy for pennies on the dollar and gets the fleet set up the way they want it (kind of like flipping a house, fix up the kitchen and bathroom and sell for way more then you paid for it). So you pass the TA pinnacle loses a ton of 50 seaters and gets more 900's (value of Pinnacle sky rockets). Don't pass TA and Pinnacle still loses 200's and has current fleet of 900's which is still going to make Delta money if they bought them and sold them to say Skywest, but not as much as if you pass that TA. So in theory you guys passing TA is making the value of Pinnacle go up once all this happens. Delta buys Pinnacle and sells to the highest bidder. Money in the pocket of Delta management. Probably enough to cover the cost of your 3 year deal or new fleet of 717's which just replaced some of your 88's and older 319's.

I wish I was Delta management, they are going to be laughing all the way to the bank. Funny thing is it all seems to be scripted out way ahead of time and not much you can do to stop it.

 

[ASApuppy]

Another view from outside the box.......

What if Delta bought a regional and merged(stapled) the pilots? How would a fleet of CRJ-900's coming to Mainline skew the DCI ratio's?

Not that far fetched. USAirways operates the same type as their express, only a 12 ft longer version. Seems like Delta could be in complete complience with new ratio's by simply buying and stapling.

The other picture that nobody is touching is that there are very few pilots in the works to replace those that retire. This industry will have fewer pilots. The million dollar question is where do you draw the line between mainline and regionals staffing levels. I think it is time for the regionals to shrink and serve only the most profitable markets. Don't be caught without a chair when the music stops.

Hopefully the DAL ATL CP that said "regional capt's with more than 1500 hrs are no longer moldable to the Delta system and should not be hired" will have changed his mind.

 

[JustaNumber]

What is the exact language in the TA regarding how many CRJ200s leave? It seems people are quoting some different numbers.

We know the new mainline planes will be the 88 717's, so the addition of the 70 CRJ900s are a done deal (which exactly satisfies the 1.25 ratio). Exactly how many CRJ200s go away with these numbers?

Also, what is the current total DCI CRJ200 inventory per regional?

Just trying to see the odds of my job going away.

 

[Flyer1015]

I enjoy the hope of Delta Air Lines hiring in the near future and the ability to progress, but does anyone find it strange we pay ALPA to bargain for job improvements, all the while bargaining to reduce those same jobs. That flow language in that TA is bs. What are the benefits of a union like that anyway? lol insurance, a magazine, and lunch once a year.

Just wait til you leave an ALPA carrier for a non-ALPA carrier. You'll get a hilarious letter in the mail that says something along the lines that we're sad to hear you have left an ALPA-represented carrier, blah blah blah, but if you want the magazine and a couple other perks then please send $50/year. LOL. Promptly trashed that letter after reading it...

 

[Oakum_Boy]

ASA will not exist soon. Too expensive relative to Gojets and Pinnacle.

ERJ side now has zero motivation to move forward with the JCBA and SLI. Perhaps when ASA shrinks to a fifth of it's current size, they'll consider it.

 

[79%N1]

What is the exact language in the TA regarding how many CRJ200s leave? It seems people are quoting some different numbers.

We know the new mainline planes will be the 88 717's, so the addition of the 70 CRJ900s are a done deal (which exactly satisfies the 1.25 ratio). Exactly how many CRJ200s go away with these numbers?

Also, what is the current total DCI CRJ200 inventory per regional?

Just trying to see the odds of my job going away.

All of them..............A few left over to run to DHN, CSG, CHA and AGS.

Now, the fight for who can operate the remaining a/c begins. See: Undercutting/Low Balling

 

[bigshooter107]

What is the exact language in the TA regarding how many CRJ200s leave? It seems people are quoting some different numbers.

We know the new mainline planes will be the 88 717's, so the addition of the 70 CRJ900s are a done deal (which exactly satisfies the 1.25 ratio). Exactly how many CRJ200s go away with these numbers?

Also, what is the current total DCI CRJ200 inventory per regional?

Just trying to see the odds of my job going away.

7) 4.6 50-seat aircraft for each of the next additional ten 76-seat aircraft (above 213).
Note one: Upon the delivery of a 223rd 76-seat aircraft, the number of permitted 50-seat aircraft will be 125 regardless of the number otherwise provided in Exception one.
Note two: If on January 1, 2014, or any succeeding January 1 thereafter, the number of 50-seat aircraft in category A or C operations exceeds the maximum permitted number, the Company will require carriers that engage in category A or C operations to suspend or cease operations on a sufficient number of 50-seat aircraft or 76-seat aircraft to comply with these requirements within 60 days and to remain in compliance thereafter. The

 

[On Your Six]

You guys do what you have to do with that TA but Delta has an out on a ton of 50 seaters if you don't ratify the TA. It's called the Pinnacle bankruptcy. wonder why they haven't mentioned any plans yet with Pinnacles 200 fleet thus far into the bankruptcy. They are waiting to see how your TA turns out.

If you do ratify the TA I'm guessing more 900's get dangled in front of Pinnacle pilots to get us to bite quickly on a crap concessionaire contract in bankruptcy to get shiny new airplanes to replace all those 200's (obviously more going away them being replaced) and save a few jobs more then would be lost with 200's going away without replacement aircraft. While that's going on Delta buys Pinnacle in bankruptcy for pennies on the dollar and gets the fleet set up the way they want it (kind of like flipping a house, fix up the kitchen and bathroom and sell for way more then you paid for it). So you pass the TA pinnacle loses a ton of 50 seaters and gets more 900's (value of Pinnacle sky rockets). Don't pass TA and Pinnacle still loses 200's and has current fleet of 900's which is still going to make Delta money if they bought them and sold them to say Skywest, but not as much as if you pass that TA. So in theory you guys passing TA is making the value of Pinnacle go up once all this happens. Delta buys Pinnacle and sells to the highest bidder. Money in the pocket of Delta management. Probably enough to cover the cost of your 3 year deal or new fleet of 717's which just replaced some of your 88's and older 319's.

I wish I was Delta management, they are going to be laughing all the way to the bank. Funny thing is it all seems to be scripted out way ahead of time and not much you can do to stop it.

Delta could dump the CRJs via the PNCL BK, or trade them in for larger new RJs. Since Delta now pretty much owns PNCL, they seem to prefer owning the CR9s and whipsawing them between airlines that will fly them for the cheapest rate possible. They like control.


Godspeed!


The OYSter

 

[HelloNewman]

Consolidation for everyone was simply inevitable in this industry. The days of regionals growing like a weed are pretty much over. I still keep in touch with my peers and encourage anyone under 50 to keep those resumes polished. I am happy to walk resumes in. The regionals WILL be smaller in 10 years. I will never forget where I came from but scope is very important. I have no problem with regionals flying upto 70/76 seaters as long as more 50 seaters go away and it is tied to mainline block hours.

I am a realist and 70 seat scope has already been given up. It is too idealistic to expect to get that back however regionals WILL shrink in the next 10 years. The business model is broken and not even a union can fix that

 

[No Delay]

I think everyone needs to take a deep breath. I don't see the HUGE change everyone is stressing over. 50 seaters are decreasing. But that was already happening. I think the new TA is just adjusting scope numbers to be in line with what was already in the works.

hope we don't panic over this right in the middle of our contract nego!

 

[79%N1]

The ASA side will probably lose a net 60-80a/c. Don't panic you say???? Just because it may have already been 'planned', doesnt mean its not distressing to see your company about to be gutted.

 

[bigshooter107]

The ASA side will probably lose a net 60-80a/c. Don't panic you say???? Just because it may have already been 'planned', doesnt mean its not distressing to see your company about to be gutted.

Why do u think so many will come from
ASA? When do the first 200 contracts run out?

 

[79%N1]

Well, in reality they willcome from everybody - but ASA, Skywest and Pinnacle are the biggest operators. Comair has very few left, RAH has a couple erj's. Pinnacle will clearly have the cheapest 200 operation after bankruptcy - and Delta is controlling the show over there now. They also have the newest 200's and will probably renegotiate leases as part of reorganization. That leaves us and Skywest. Which side do you think they will shrink first? There ya go. While everyone will lose 50's, I think the bulk will come from ASA when the leases expire.

You could make a case Pinnacle would lose some first, because Delta can easier shed them, but don't think our time won't come.

 

[No Delay]

maybe. You are prob right that we will lose some. not sure where you got 60-80. My rough calculations...a reduction of 150. Remember Comair has already lost a lot of planes and slated to lose maybe 40 more. Pnl being in bk will surely play a role in this. They operate 140 ish. Seems Delta would have more control over parking more of those than just snatching them out from under skyw. But who knows? I am just guessing and trying to be optimistic. All of this is certainly above my education level.

But I did hear someone say Delta announced No 50 seaters in ATL. Anyone else heard that?

Anyone have a break down 50s already reduced and from where?