Could Southwest's run of profitability be coming to an end?

[Bobby Orr 4]

Last, you don't know me or my background. Tell me again why I am a fool?

Agreed. I do not know you or your background. Re-read your posts. You may see why you are a fool.

 

[Benhuntn]

Whyworry, you sir are a communist. You would kill innovation, and the free market. I think you would like to kill capitalism too. I would suggest that instead of writing here you contact your CEO and encourage him/her to seek innovaive ways to increase profits while treating employees with respect and empowering them to make the company you work for better. Or better yet you can just blame SWA for your saddness!

 

[Jim Smyth]

Whymeworry--

You're simply throwing around some B.S. and mere tidbits of a much more complex story. I'm not going to claim to be an expert here, and I didn't even stay at a Holiday Inn Express last night, but here's some of the missing parts of your rant:

• It's not true that only SW hedged fuels. It is true that they did far better at it than everyone else. One reason why is that ratings of their corporate debt made it possible to do futures deals that no other airline could swing. All of the airlines with sick balance sheets (that would be most of the rest of them) didn't have access to those same hedges.
• When you claim that SW cannot earn money without these hedges, you are assuming that without them, they wouldn't raise fares to get to profitability. I believe that they absolutely would.
• We've been listening to guys like you that say "just wait until the hedges run out" since about 2004. It seems that they've practiced a consistent policy of hedging since then, and I doubt they are going to stop just to give all of the other airlines a break. True, they are not hedged at $25/bbl anymore, but they don't need to be. If they can use their good rating and expertise to consistently get a 40% discount on fuel over their rivals, then they've won the game before a wheel is ever turned.
• SW doesn't price its product to absolutely maximize fares and profits as you would seem to prefer. Instead, they choose to offer a lower fare that will give them a steady (almost boring) profit, quarter after quarter. Maybe that's why my LUV shares never budged in 4 years....
• I don't think SW has "won" on every hedge bet (I think I've read about write-downs they've taken for hedging losses). But there are lots of eggs, and lots of baskets, and as long as fuel trends up in the long run, they do well overall. I've heard it stated many times that the goal of the program is not only to secure lower prices, but mostly to define those prices well in advance so that they become more "fixed" than "variable."

Ding.Ding.Ding...........We have a winner! Someone that actually gets it, very well put.

With fuel hedges you need Money to buy them! Until just recently most of the other airlines didn't have any Money! Why, because they didn't plan for the bad times during the good times. They are just now starting to accumulate some money through the kind US Bankruptcy system and also from screwing its employees! Lets see how long it lasts this time..........Full steam ahead.......again!

Southwest has based the cost of its product from day 1 on what it needs to turn a specific profit in terms of percentage/return on investment. Its a total picture of all assets that are in play. That still hasn't changed and fuel hedges are just another smart management step to insure profits. Also, fuel hedges change all the time! They are in constant flux! People years ago were saying..."wait till they run out" Well they still haven't run out and wont "EVER" unless its doesn't make sense to get them anymore! Thats called competitive advantage!

We may or may not show a profit this first quarter but our track record is pretty much unparalleled in the airline industry. Yes, I am proud of the company I work for! I am not trying to be arrogant or of the mindset that bad things cant happen to us. SWA is my 3rd airline and I have been up and down the seniority list before with Chapter 11/7. I am very appreciative of what I have and where I am at. I may not fly the biggest airplanes to all the exotic places around the world but I am OK with that.

I think as a profession we as Pilots leave allot to be desired. Most other professions take care of there own, get credit for experience and time served and don't get punished by being put back at the bottom of a list when the management makes bad decisions and/or there company goes out of business. I hope someday, someone thats allot smarter than me can figure out a system that would put us all on even pay rates for equipment flown! Pay the price or the airplane doesn't move. All airlines would have to then price there product accordingly then. Plus if your management makes bad decisions you get credit for time served and don't have to start over at the bottom pay/benefit wise.

 

[puddlejumper101]

is it safe to say you don't like SWA?

He just needs to point a finger somewhere. Judging by what he flies I am willing to bet the rhetoric he is getting from say DAL, AA, UAL, CAL, or USAir (whichever he works for) is not good. He is frustrated and SWA has been a target for frustrated legacy guys for years now.
As long as oil keeps doing what it is doing SWA will hedge. When the price starts coming down then they will stop hedging thus making money anyways.
Pointing fingers and placing blame has been a strategy that the legacy carriers have used for decades. They use it on their own people pitting work groups against each other (tribalism). Can that happen at SWA? of course...that is actually what scares me the most if you ask me. He is just a product of his surroundings. If I worked at a company that always pointed fingers and placed blame then I might just start doing that on my own too. If legacy Managements started pointing the finger at themselves instead of at their workforce, the economy or whatever excuse they throw out there then maybe we would not get such frustated rants about what SWA does or doesn't do.

 

[Tanker Clown]

So, back to the whole point of this thread....Is SWA going to make or lose money this quarter? My buddies there said the jets seemed full, but they also said it may have been full of $29 one ways.

Any thoughts/predictions?

 

[puddlejumper101]

I don't know what kind of earnings we will show. What I do know is the legacy carriers could post major losses and that will be bussiness as usual but if SWA posts ONE quater of losses there will be celebration amongst MANY SWA haters on FI thinking SWA is coming down in flames. I think some on this board would get more pleasure out of seeing SWA loose a dollar over the health of their own company. "we lost 300 million but SWA lost $1.00 YES FINALLY"
I wish people would just mind their own bussiness.

 

[bugchaser]

That said, hedging is simply commodities trading. You cannot win using that strategy forever. Do some research and you'll see the investment archives are littered with multi billionaires who lost it all by getting stuck on the wrong side of a commodities/ currency trade.

whymeworry,

Man I really don't know where to start with you. Your ignorance is so strong that I really don't think you will ever be able to understand even the basics of hedging strategies. Hedging is not the same as simple commodities trading or speculation. There is little speculation on the type of tools used by SW. What they have done is to lock in their future costs of their biggest expense and then build the business around that. When you set a hedge, it does not matter then if prices rise or fall, as your cost is locked at that level. You are not on the winning or losing side. That only happens on a purely speculative trade. That is, someone who will not be using the underlying commodity that the derivatives are built around. The main benefit to this is knowing in advance what your expenses will be so that you can plan accordingly. As costs rise, the business plan will change to adjust to this. This is how every well run business in the world operates. You seem to think that is is some unfair advantage or some underhanded thing to use the futures market as it was designed to be used. We use futures contracts to lock in the prices we get for corn on our farm, should we stop since it makes us too much money?

If you think your tiny little brain won't explode, I can give you a complete tutorial on how all these hedging instruments work.

 

[YourPilotFriend]

Southwest is not a cheap airline to fly on for regular travel. They are usually the most expensive airline and require multiple stops. People that fly SW are the type that book months in advance to get the special deals. However, you can find those deals on almost any other airline.

 

[The Victors]

I don't know what kind of earnings we will show. What I do know is the legacy carriers could post major losses and that will be bussiness as usual but if SWA posts ONE quater of losses there will be celebration amongst MANY SWA haters on FI thinking SWA is coming down in flames. I think some on this board would get more pleasure out of seeing SWA loose a dollar over the health of their own company. "we lost 300 million but SWA lost $1.00 YES FINALLY"
I wish people would just mind their own bussiness.

This has been my point on several posts. This attitude of "I've been screwed by my mgmt and taken a 50% pay cut and now it your turn swa" is insane. As opposed to swa pilots being able to keep the bar where it should be so that other pilot groups can get their pay back and we can all benefit. You idiots ever heard of raising the bar. Guess not? The legacy airlines have screwed their empolyees and creditors while mgmt takes home millions and you point your fingers at swa? Are you kidding me? Do all us "professional" pilots a favor, worry about your own house. If your neighbor comes home in a new car, do you hope and pray for his house to burn down or do you try and better yourself so that you might do the same?

 

[YourPilotFriend]

This has been my point on several posts. This attitude of "I've been screwed by my mgmt and taken a 50% pay cut and now it your turn swa" is insane. As opposed to swa pilots being able to keep the bar where it should be so that other pilot groups can get their pay back and we can all benefit. You idiots ever heard of raising the bar. Guess not? The legacy airlines have screwed their empolyees and creditors while mgmt takes home millions and you point your fingers at swa? Are you kidding me? Do all us "professional" pilots a favor, worry about your own house. If your neighbor comes home in a new car, do you hope and pray for his house to burn down or do you try and better yourself so that you might do the same?

Interesting view, however, SW was the first airline to lower the bar back in the 70's and 80's when their pilots were the lowest paid in the industry. Those low pilot wages allowed them to grow to the airline they are today. They only look good now because they are higher than the rest of the industry. Also the highest paid executive in airline history is Herb Kelleher.

 

[Tanker Clown]

Interesting view, however, SW was the first airline to lower the bar back in the 70's and 80's when their pilots were the lowest paid in the industry. Those low pilot wages allowed them to grow to the airline they are today. They only look good now because they are higher than the rest of the industry.

So, what your saying is, you'd like to see them get theirs and take a paycut? Good idea. Ha Ha! They got theirs. Then you can go to your section 6 at DAL or wherever and when you want a raise they can say, "You already make more than SWA."

Good plan dude. You'll have a few months gloating and less money in the long run. How much is spite worth to you?

 

[The Victors]

Interesting view, however, SW was the first airline to lower the bar back in the 70's and 80's when their pilots were the lowest paid in the industry. Those low pilot wages allowed them to grow to the airline they are today. They only look good now because they are higher than the rest of the industry. Also the highest paid executive in airline history is Herb Kelleher.

That's fine if you chose to look 30-40 years into the past for your opinions. I just think we need to focus on positive changes we need to make today.

 

[328dude]

Also the highest paid executive in airline history is Herb Kelleher.

Key word is history. Herb has been there from the start. Many more CEO's at airlines had made their millions than bolted and don't have the history to stay in one place.

You guys keep playing CEO musical chairs, that's ok with me. I think you will find that the actual payouts to all the CEO's at each airline made a lot more than herb during the same amount of years.

Again, flawed thinking.

 

[momalley81]

the highest paid executive in airline history is Herb Kelleher.

Totally completely false.

Where do you get this stuff?

Why do you make this stuff up?

 

[turn&pull]

The best way to guess what will happen in the future is to study the past. Southwest has a strong history of managing well and treating their employees fairly. Will it always be this way here? Time will tell.

I hope we continue to work together and thrive but I'm not going to go buy the yaught counting on the continued success of SWA.

I've never flown to Europe or Aisa as a pilot and I suppose that if I had the opportunity to try it I would. However, right now being based in BWI, I don't even like going to the west coast. My favorite trips are east coast PM trips that start at 2pm and have me in the bar by 11Pm. Right now I feel like I could do that forever and be happy. Time will tell.

 

[YourPilotFriend]

Totally completely false.

Where do you get this stuff?

Why do you make this stuff up?

Prove I am wrong. He has made the most money from an American based passenger carrier.

 

[Quimby]

Interesting view, however, SW was the first airline to lower the bar back in the 70's and 80's when their pilots were the lowest paid in the industry. Those low pilot wages allowed them to grow to the airline they are today. They only look good now because they are higher than the rest of the industry. Also the highest paid executive in airline history is Herb Kelleher.

You're right. You nailed it. Everything you've said is spot on. You're one smart cookie.

 

[momalley81]

Prove I am wrong. He has made the most money from an American based passenger carrier.

It's really not all that hard to find the info. Why you continue to spew the wrong information is beyond me.

Here is Kelly's Compensation:

http://www.unitedafa.org/news/ceo_chart.asp

Gary's, Collen's and Herb's Compensation vs Arpey at AMR:

Airline CEO compensation numbers

11:46 AM Sun, Nov 11, 2007 | Permalink
Terry Maxon E-mail

News tips


A communications guy at the Allied Pilots Association passed on some numbers Sunday morning, none of them new:


AMR chairman, president and CEO Gerard Arpey's total compensation for 2006: $10,201,059.


Southwest chairman Herb Kelleher's total compensation for 2006: $1,365,000.

Southwest president Colleen Barrett's total compensation for 2006: $1,256,935.

Southwest CEO Gary Kelly's total compensation for 2006: $1,405,883.


So the AMR chairman, CEO and president (one person) made $10,201,059, and the chairman, CEO and president of Southwest (three people) made $4,027,818.


Breaking that down, Mr. Arpey had $581,534 in salary; the Southwest trio had $1,229,347. In bonuses, Mr. Arpey got nothing; the Southwest trio got $1,277,000.


So in salary and bonuses, Mr. Arpey earned $581,534; the Southwest trio earned $2,506,347.


Under the Securities and Exchange Commission rules on reporting executive compensation, Mr. Arpey's total soared primarily on the assumed values of stock awards ($8,558,878) and option awards ($851,398). The option awards for the



Southwest trio totaled only $1,180,157.
Apropo of nothing, SEC filings indicate that Mr. Kelleher has sold 425,000 shares of Southwest stock this year for $6.46 million. At the start of the year, he had around 3.47 million shares of Southwest stock; after some Oct. 30 sales, his holdings were down to 3.05 million shares.


Mr. Kelleher exercised options in July to acquire 60,000 shares at $16.40. His average sale price this year has been about $15.21 a share. His October sales were for $14 to $14.10, depending on the day.


Mr. Arpey in April received and quickly sold 207,900 shares he received in a stock performance plan that riled the unions and other employees. He grossed $6.18 million from those shares, plus another $1.51 million from stock options he exercised for about $438,000.

 

[328dude]

That's what we call "Owned" lady's and lady's. Nice work dude.

 

[Jim Smyth]

Interesting view, however, SW was the first airline to lower the bar back in the 70's and 80's when their pilots were the lowest paid in the industry. Those low pilot wages allowed them to grow to the airline they are today. They only look good now because they are higher than the rest of the industry. Also the highest paid executive in airline history is Herb Kelleher.

Heres another eduction lesson for you.

Its not unusual to be low paid with any start up company. It helps the company grow! Without it you won't survive for long. Both you and the company benefit from this long term if your successful.

Those low paid Piiots that rolled the dice got "stock/profit sharing" instead of the high pay and juicy pensions the other airlines had. The one's retiring today are leaving typically with 3-4 Million cash! Highest one I heard of was 7+ Million.

Yep, your right, bad decision on there part working for that low pay.

 

[jke406]

Those low paid Piiots that rolled the dice got "stock/profit sharing" instead of the high pay and juicy pensions the other airlines had. The one's retiring today are leaving typically with 3-4 Million cash! Highest one I heard of was 7+ Million.

7 million cash? really? that would be over 58,000 shares of stock at 12 bucks/share.

but you did say "cash" and not "stock."

 

[fiel12]

Your company spent 20 years at the bottom of the heap and are only on top now because everyone else took a pay cut.

Hmmmmmm. When did CAL, DAL, UAL pay their 737 CA's 250-300k a year?

 

[Sedona16]

Plain and simple if SWA lost its hedging advantage and had to raise prices across the board in every city to what all airlines were charging (including advanced fare) they would suffer badly. Their whole model is based upon low fares and a no frills product. They are falling further and further behind in the offerings with the likes of live TV and a host of other upgrades the other airlines are making to their fleets.

I know the southwest guys like to think there is loyalty to the airline with the uglies planes but it just aint so. Price is what keeps them afloat. Btw, adding some computer kiosks was a nice idea but not enough. SWA is the flavor of the month after 911. I think it is great they have so many profitably quarters in a row but the industry is quickly morphing into something unlike every seen and the domestic market is saturated. The model southwest used in the past will be more difficult (not impossible if they can cannibalize markets where other carriers are dying....read Frontier/Denver). Other than that they best keep their hedges in place or it does not bode well for them in the next ten years.

 

[fiel12]

Their whole model is based upon low fares and a no frills product.

FYI, I just jumpsat on a legacy carrier the other day on a 2 1/2 hr flight. The gate had no computer kiosks or comfey chairs. On the flight, bevs only, not even pretzels. But I will say the flight /cabin crew was great to me.
Thanks guys!
Oh yeah, sorry. What was that about no frills?

 

[Sedona16]

FYI, I just jumpsat on a legacy carrier the other day on a 2 1/2 hr flight. The gate had no computer kiosks or comfey chairs. On the flight, bevs only, not even pretzels. But I will say the flight /cabin crew was great to me.
Thanks guys!
Oh yeah, sorry. What was that about no frills?

Well barring your experience I think across the board there is little comparison. Delta has adapted much of what was on Song and I can tell you from first hand experience it is being well received. Do a word association with John Q. Public and throw the name Southwest Airlines out there and you will get "Cattle Car Operation" followed by "Low Prices".

Alaska is now facing a direct assault from VA on a model that has worked for them for years (read "can AK survive assault from VA" thread) and this is not unlike how many in the industry are raising the bar while SWA rides its old worn out ways. Alaska is trying to rise to the occasion but they have alot of ground to cover. Dont get me wrong, as a pilot I hate VA and think they are one of the new cancers to add to the long list of LLC's but they bring a new game to town as far as competition/amenities go, far beyond the no frills show SWA continues to try to run with.

PS- I suggest riding in the back on another flight because the advantages I am talking about are large in part found on the actual airplanes during the flight and not at the gate.

 

[Tanker Clown]

FYI, I just jumpsat on a legacy carrier the other day on a 2 1/2 hr flight. The gate had no computer kiosks or comfey chairs. On the flight, bevs only, not even pretzels. But I will say the flight /cabin crew was great to me.
Thanks guys!
Oh yeah, sorry. What was that about no frills?

Is being late a frill? That seems to be a legacy special.

 

[puddlejumper101]

Well barring your experience I think across the board there is little comparison. Delta has adapted much of what was on Song and I can tell you from first hand experience it is being well received. Do a word association with John Q. Public and throw the name Southwest Airlines out there and you will get "Cattle Car Operation" followed by "Low Prices".

Alaska is now facing a direct assault from VA on a model that has worked for them for years (read "can AK survive assault from VA" thread) and this is not unlike how many in the industry are raising the bar while SWA rides its old worn out ways. Alaska is trying to rise to the occasion but they have alot of ground to cover. Dont get me wrong, as a pilot I hate VA and think they are one of the new cancers to add to the long list of LLC's but they bring a new game to town as far as competition/amenities go, far beyond the no frills show SWA continues to try to run with.

PS- I suggest riding in the back on another flight because the advantages I am talking about are large in part found on the actual airplanes during the flight and not at the gate.

Blah blah blah...yes we know SWA is going down in flames...they have been going down in flames for 37 years.
Kelleher build it...kept everyone happy...never screwed his own...made millionaires out of all of those employees that stuck it out in the 80's so yeah he should be well compensated. I bet you did not know that a few years ago SWA had the most millionaires working for them than any other COMPANY in the United States...even more than Microsoft. So yeah Herb deserves every penny, if anything, he should have made more.
Last I heard this cattle call thing has been exactly that since SWA started...their service has always been below that of legacy carriers or other discounters (or so they say)...and their hedges will run out and they will tank. Why don't we find a new topic to discuss??? Waiting for SWA to tank seems to be the hobby of most around here.

 

[Tanker Clown]

Plain and simple if SWA lost its hedging advantage and had to raise prices across the board in every city to what all airlines were charging (including advanced fare) they would suffer badly. Their whole model is based upon low fares and a no frills product. They are falling further and further behind in the offerings with the likes of live TV and a host of other upgrades the other airlines are making to their fleets.

I know the southwest guys like to think there is loyalty to the airline with the uglies planes but it just aint so. Price is what keeps them afloat. Btw, adding some computer kiosks was a nice idea but not enough. SWA is the flavor of the month after 911. I think it is great they have so many profitably quarters in a row but the industry is quickly morphing into something unlike every seen and the domestic market is saturated. The model southwest used in the past will be more difficult (not impossible if they can cannibalize markets where other carriers are dying....read Frontier/Denver). Other than that they best keep their hedges in place or it does not bode well for them in the next ten years.

No offense Sedona, but are you a retard or someting? Whatever you think of the Southwest model, it's the ONLY one that has been consistantly successful. UAL, DAL, and NWA all were in BK a few years ago. Who made money last quarter? WN and CAL. DAL has so much debt that it would have to have a couple decades worth of record profits to pay off their debt. UAL looks like it is starting to have a ton of issues. If I had a choice, I'd go with the "post 9-11 flavor of the month." But then again, I don't like pay cuts and furloughs.

 

[Sedona16]

Blah blah blah...yes we know SWA is going down in flames...they have been going down in flames for 37 years.
Kelleher build it...kept everyone happy...never screwed his own...made millionaires out of all of those employees that stuck it out in the 80's so yeah he should be well compensated. I bet you did not know that a few years ago SWA had the most millionaires working for them than any other COMPANY in the United States...even more than Microsoft. So yeah Herb deserves every penny, if anything, he should have made more.
Last I heard this cattle call thing has been exactly that since SWA started...their service has always been below that of legacy carriers or other discounters (or so they say)...and their hedges will run out and they will tank. Why don't we find a new topic to discuss??? Waiting for SWA to tank seems to be the hobby of most around here.

This is only one of a variety of topics I have weighed in on. If it hurts your feelings go have a good cry in the corner or quit coming to these threads you know all too well about then posting which no doubt further injects life causing the thread to grow further. I have noticed some southwest guys like to focus on small slices of the reality of the company they work for. It has been a good operation from a profiitablity standpoint. Some of the early guys did make alot of money on stock. How long has it been a top five pick to work for pilots? Id say about seven years of all the years it has been in existance (Im sure some will give antidotal evidence to the contrary). The higher pay RELATIVE to others these PAST SEVEN YEARS and growth have made it more attractive when others were going into BK. I dont see it being the flavor of the month into the next decade. Its reliance on "we just keep doin it the way weve done and will get what we have gotten" mentallity with a market that has and is changing is coming to bare.

 

[Tanker Clown]

Sedona...I don't even have a dog in this fight, but I would just say SCOREBOARD. Reguardless of what you think, they do something that no other airline does on a regular basis: MAKE MONEY.

What's the next "flavor of the month?" Delta, and all their debt. UAL & AMR are both significantly flawed. CAL is probably your best bet, but I had to pick a way to feed my family, I'd go with SWA any day of the week. You obviously aren't a fan, but you should thank the SWA guys for raising and holding the pay bar. No one else can claim that.