FlyBoeingJets said:
It's time to change the quote GL. They may not be failing to plan, but the plan appears to look like rearranging chairs on the Titanic.
Regionals the majors of the future??? Only the ones with cash at their disposal. If you can line up investors, order some planes, get some gates and keep your workforce in line (i.e. hose them thoroughly) the world is your oyster. But only if your business plan makes sense. I wish I could see the future and figure out who will hang on and who will get stronger by taking advantage of the turmoil.
Has there ever been another plan at DL? They have probably been thinking about this for the last year or so. I thought USAir and United were the Titanics, but both have succeeded, and USAir has less collatteral than we do. It appears that many investors and creditors want to see these airlines continue, and so do the bankruptcy judges who are pressured by local politicians who don't want to lose jobs. American Express for example, has 25 million Skymiles members through the Skymiles American Express Card. GE and Boeing have a lot invested in Delta. So do the DCI carriers. And, the plan that they are referring to has already been implemented, albeit a tad bit too late. We were on the way to saving $5 billion a year by 2006, but the pesky oil problem came into play. So, we cut back some more wages, increase the efficiency of our fleet (we have been---operation Clockwork has helped tremendously---and decreasing the turn times again for the narrowbodies alone in ATL has netted us another 8 extra airplanes---and that is after we park a bunch of 737-200s coming up here) So, we will have less planes to lease ($$), but use the ones we have more---helping to pay off our fixed costs sooner each day for each. As far as the pension problem goes---either Congress gives us and extension (it will be up for vote soon), or we drop them. It doesn't matter much to us (compared to NW) because most have left with 50% of their retirement already (2000 Captains since last May--04), so the rest of us don't really care. The NW guys, on the otherhand, don't have the lump sum option, and will likely vote to furlough versus losing the pension. So there is the pension problem in a nutshell. The debt problem is significant, but selling off ASA/Comair will get rid of a sizeable chunk of debt, and may get us some much needed money to pay for bankruptcy attornies and for the upcoming credit card arangement. We have started to try to find ways to increase revenue---like going to places where the LCC don't go yet. We are putting newer planes on the Shuttle, another asset we can leverage. And, if we go in before Oct 17th, our chances of getting out are better than if we went in afterwards, and we also have more cash to go in with--$2 billion total with $$1.7 billion unrestricted. Last October, before the pilot deal, analysts were saying we needed $1 billion to go in with. We have more which should help.
I think we may need to go in and allow the creditors to finally give some concessions (only $100 million so far, compared to $2 billion from labor). Sure, scope and other things would be changed, but to create revenue, we need larger planes. No mainline (USAir included) has gotten their regionals to fly 100 seaters yet (USAir is challenged by AWA pilots right now for the E190s at CHQ). Guess you just got to roll the dice and let everyone share in the pain sometimes....Continental and AWA have gone in twice, and they have emerged. You need a good plan, and hopefully Grinstein and friends have one.
Bye Bye--General Lee