Bad News for Indy

[buzzer]

ANDY, When you refer to "greedy SOB's" I hope you mean some of the folks running the show. Perhaps some of the pilots would fit the bill (by drinking the coolaid), but most are just working for a paycheck and want their company to do well. As pilots, we have no control over our managements behavior...wish we did though.

In any case, if FLYI goes ch.11, couldn't that hurt UAL? They get to stick around while not paying bills. Doesn't look like they are taking any traffic from UAL though after reading the load factors from both airlines.

 

[skykid]

46DRIVER,

I wish we had more of a brotherhood. I wouldn't gloat over anybody's troubles. Say that reminds me, you posted something about "mortally wounding a major airline," way back when FLYI was getting going, referring to the affect they would have on UAL. I wish you guys the best of luck.

 

[zkmayo]

Andy,

If you were at ACA a year and a half ago, would you take a 3% pay cut and sink or swim on your own or let Ornstein and Mesa steamroll over you and then do the same work you just did for 30% less? The whole idea of working for JO (=Frank Lorenzo) was enough to make me puke. I would have left this place within months and done my **CENSORED****CENSORED****CENSORED****CENSORED**edest to drag the whole place down.

UAL was able to replace FLYI alright. With Mesa, Transtates, Shuttle America, Chataqua, Air Wiskey. Besides ARW, Im sure I forgot some other regional who used to fly for UAL ex but wasnt good enough but now is providing sooo much better feed and level of service. Oh, and that on time % is greaaattt....and customer svc, wow's everyone. And the facilities....they dont call the G terminal at IAD the Ghetto terminal for nothing.

The company felt that there was too much risk staying with UAL. For me I would rather fail on our own than be Mesa's ho. Only time will tell I guess...

As far as FLYI pilots being responsible for taking your job...give me a freakin break. Yeah, we were the ones who rammed airplanes into buildings. Yeah we were the ones whose management gave you Contract 2000, gave you 'Lets merge with USAir', gave you 'we'll get the business traveler back'. And, boy I tell you what, UAL's business plan has really changed alot since 9/11. Is that why UAL keeps getting those exclusive extensions in BK court bc their plan is so good??? No offense to any UAL pilot, including you, but take a look at the events around you, your management, and look in the mirror.

I wish you no ill will, only good luck. No matter where you work in this industry today, we all need that.

 

[Mosquito]

The "B" word

Pencil I-Air onto the bankruptcy rumor list: After just four months of operation, I-Air is "looking at large losses" and a potential Chapter 11 filing" by January, said a Wall Street analyst quoted by The Washington Post (free registration). "It's clear to us that Flyi's business plan isn't working," UBS Investment Research Robert Ashcroft wrote in a research note. I-Air spokesman Rick DeLisi wouldn't comment on the Wall Street change, telling The Associated Press: "We wouldn't talk about something that's speculative." The carrier is scheduled to report its third-quarter results a week from today. Ashcroft said high fuel costs were primarily to blame for his dire projections on I-Air. Ironically, Delta's woes could also have an impact on I-Air. Ashcroft tells AP/Forbes that if Delta files for bankruptcy — as many expect — such a move could saddle I-Air with rent payments on 30 planes it previously operated as a regional partner for Delta, which would likely walk away from its leases. Now, for the good news: Even if I-Air does file for bankruptcy — and that's a BIG if — the carrier would likely continue to operate as normal for the foreseeable future as it reorganizes in bankruptcy. I-Air's earnings report will give a better glimpse if bankruptcy is a real threat — or just speculation. Posted at 9 a.m. ET

http://www.usatoday.com/travel/flights/today/sky.htm
Doesn't Look good, Best of luck to my formers employees and friends.

 

[metroplex]

it might work out better for Skyway with the DOrnier jets. If deltas cash is to low to assume the leases, flyi will be stcuk with them , something they can not afford. so they might get rid of them really cheap, just to lower their burden.

 

[46Driver]

46DRIVER,

I wish we had more of a brotherhood. I wouldn't gloat over anybody's troubles. Say that reminds me, you posted something about "mortally wounding a major airline," way back when FLYI was getting going, referring to the affect they would have on UAL. I wish you guys the best of luck.

If you say I did, then I probably did - but I would like to see the entire quote in context. It sounds more like an analytical observation of what I thought would happen - not wishing ill upon any of the employees there.

 

[WSurf]

Andy,

Thats a crappy comment to make! What comes around in this busy, usually goes around. Enjoy your furlough and your attitude!

To my ACA brothers! I want to wish you luck, I have a bunch of old FlightSafety people over there! Good luck, I can say your one of the few Regional Airlines that has a pair!

 

[treetopflyer]

andy, im sorry that you bought into all that military spoon-fed bull while drinking martinis at the 0-club in spokane. you werent owed "your" united job and flyi didn't "take" it from you if you have been on the street that long you could have gotten two different J4J jobs with both skywest and mesa that all you had to do was to show up and sign up for some work.. you wouldn't even have to go to the trouble of knocking your squadron ring on the table for the job. it was given to you by your alpa brothers at mesa that "took" your job. but i guess since you are a skygod why would you want to fly anything like a rj for second year pay.

in other words, cry me a river biaatch and get a job...

 

[FlyingDawg]

I shorted the stock when they announced they were going at it alone. I just thought they would have a hard time at first like so many startups. I guessed right. I was thinking about covering the short until this new press release. Instead I placed a stop-loss order to protect me against any upswings and still allowing profit if it sinks any lower. Anyone else playing this game?

 

[skykid]

"It sounds more like an analytical observation of what I thought would happen - not wishing ill upon any of the employees there."


46DRIVER, I think that is a fair statement. Changing subjects, I don't think anyone can blame FLYI mgt - planning fuel expenses at $30/barrel was logical - now contending with it over $50? Absolutely crazy.

 

[DCMartin]

Yes, I am suggesting that.

What freaking planet are you from? FLYI is bleeding at least $1 mil/day due to low load factors (among other things, like a dumba$$ biz plan). Are you suggesting that adding capacity to an airline with abysmal loads will help? That's funny.

Well, Let me try to explain this simply. One of the main reasons load factors are down are because they are only using RJ's. Who really wants to go from CHO to IAD. People really want to go from CHO to PHX or LAX etc... When the Airbuses roll out I think the load factors on the RJ's, and eventually the Airbuses will go up.

Would anyone want to run a LCC with ONLY RJ's....NO...for many reasons. The company hasnt even begun thier business plan. They are still transitioning. They were planning on losing money during this transitional phase. So their current load factors are not a good judgement of how the company is going to perform.

Now I dont think they were planning on the high fuel prices so their cash reserve could dwindle more quickly than they thought. But if they start threatning bankruptcy, I believe it will be to try to keep the 30 328 leases from being forced upon them.

As for you ANDY, chill with your bad attitude. Most of us are in this industry for the same reasons. Put most of the guys from INDY or this industry in your shoes when you were 25 and they probably would have ended up exactly where you are. All though I dont know if they'd be as bitter.

 

[General Lee]

The problem is the 85 CRJs. In order to turn a profit, they must have high frequency due to the very low fares they post to compete with the legacies. When there is bad weather, flow problems to NYC, ATL, or ORD etc---it can screw up the frequency. Then throw in $54 a barrel oil, and they really need more seats to break even. Sure, they are getting A319s----but where do you fly them? They are starting with MCO and TPA I believe, and that is good because the stage lengths are shorter--allowing more turns per day. But, when they start West Coast stuff---the flight times will be 5 hours or more each way, and that will allow the plane to only do about 4 legs each (doing transcons). That will limit the revenue--because everyone else is flying transcons at $99 each way (Southwest, Jetblue, CO, and others). It will be interesting to see where they put the rest of the new A319s. I would say go South more---versus West. You can charge $99 also going South, but add an extra leg each day and not burn as much fuel on the long transcons.....



Bye Bye--General Lee

 

[Heavy Set]

The problem is the 85 CRJs. In order to turn a profit, they must have high frequency due to the very low fares they post to compete with the legacies. When there is bad weather, flow problems to NYC, ATL, or ORD etc---it can screw up the frequency. Then throw in $54 a barrel oil, and they really need more seats to break even. Sure, they are getting A319s----but where do you fly them? They are starting with MCO and TPA I believe, and that is good because the stage lengths are shorter--allowing more turns per day. But, when they start West Coast stuff---the flight times will be 5 hours or more each way, and that will allow the plane to only do about 4 legs each (doing transcons). That will limit the revenue--because everyone else is flying transcons at $99 each way (Southwest, Jetblue, CO, and others). It will be interesting to see where they put the rest of the new A319s. I would say go South more---versus West. You can charge $99 also going South, but add an extra leg each day and not burn as much fuel on the long transcons.....



Bye Bye--General Lee

It's certainly not over yet for Indy. But I can't understand why they would believe the RJ model would work - especially after Midway went bust with its 737/CRJ model. Clearly they never thought gas would be so expensive - nobody predicted that. But operating high-frequency CRJ service on the delay-prone East Coast just doesn't seem to make a lot of sense. First, you would need lower fares to attract passengers away from the legacies with their loyalty programs - this would basically limit the amount of revenue you could generate per RJ flight. And yet you would need high load factors with the low fares to just break even - you would have a very high breakeven load factor. However, with the high likelihood of weather or traffic delays in the Northeast, I think the high-frequency model becomes extremely vulnerable to delays and the model starts to break down (the delay domino effect starts to upset passengers unless extra aircraft are provided)...

Bottom line, you need either volume OR frequency if you are going to charge low fares and still expect to make a profit in the LCC market. So, there are already two strikes against Indy: the Northeast does not support frequency (especially during the winter) and the CRJ does not provide seat volume. How many ground holds does it take to break down the frequency model? The A319s are a step in the right direction, but they will also need to be flown in a high-frequency mode in order to provide a source of profit for the company (long, 4-5 hour trips will limit the number of frequencies they can be flown per day and will thus reduce the opportunity for more needed revenue). I agree with the General, the A319s should be flown South in order to provide enough frequency to make money on those airplanes.

 

[Andy]

Well, I guess that's the difference. You gloat over me (possibly) going to the unemployment line. I handwalk two furloughed United bubbas resumes into my unit.
You may personally rejoice over FlyI's situation, but people losing jobs is not something you publicly announce with glee.

LOL! That's funny. You and your FLYI 'brothers' don't mind gloating over at http://www.aca-lounge.com/ over the imminent demise of UAL and UAIR. I don't see you getting all worked up when you and fellow pilots gleefully discuss the acquisition of UAL and UAIR assets on a public forum; he!!, you even discussed the fact that you don't have to take the pilots with the assets from a liquidated airline. Don't crap on me for something that you and your fellow FLYIers do in front of a very public picture window in your 'house.'
And WTF; walking pilot resumes into ACA when they had pilots on furlough? How noble of you. Tell ya what; send me your resume and I'll hand carry it on over to UAL's hiring department next week.

If you were at ACA a year and a half ago, would you take a 3% pay cut and sink or swim on your own or let Ornstein and Mesa steamroll over you and then do the same work you just did for 30% less? The whole idea of working for JO (=Frank Lorenzo) was enough to make me puke.

That was AFTER your pilots and management rejected UAL's offer of reduced guaranteed profits to ACAI and decided to go it alone. JO & Mesa didn't make the move until after Indy Air was announced.
And if you want to talk pay cuts, my pay on the Airbus was cut by 35%. Hardly worth returning for those peanuts.

Andy,
Thats a crappy comment to make! What comes around in this busy, usually goes around. Enjoy your furlough and your attitude!

Yes, what comes around goes around in this 'busy.' FLYI's pilots have been salivating at the prospect of picking over the bones of UAIR and UAL for quite some time. (Read http://www.aca-lounge.com/ if you don't believe me). FLYI's employees enjoyed their schadenfrude, so I guess it's now coming back to haunt them.

andy, im sorry that you bought into all that military spoon-fed bull while drinking martinis at the 0-club in spokane. you werent owed "your" united job and flyi didn't "take" it from you if you have been on the street that long you could have gotten two different J4J jobs with both skywest and mesa that all you had to do was to show up and sign up for some work.. you wouldn't even have to go to the trouble of knocking your squadron ring on the table for the job. it was given to you by your alpa brothers at mesa that "took" your job. but i guess since you are a skygod why would you want to fly anything like a rj for second year pay.

in other words, cry me a river biaatch and get a job...

LOL! I've got a job. It pays me six figures and I'm home every night. It may not be flying, but it's got it's perks. I'd have a very hard time whoring myself out for 2nd year RJ pay. Everybody's got their price; mine's just a he!!uva lot higher than yours.


DCMartin, two counterpoints to your argument.
1) FLYI's management forecast loads better than 60% at this point in time. Since it is 44%, that means that most of FLYI's pax are paying the lowest two buckets of fares, not the top three. That means not only loads, but also yields are well below forecast. FLYI doesn't have a ton of cash to burn; I've seen estimates of $1-2 mil/day in losses. That gives FLYI 100-200 days (consider the clock to have started Aug 15) before reaching a critical point in declaring chap 11. It will take much longer than that to get the Airbi operating at sufficient quantity to make a difference. The first Airbus won't even be on line until Nov; 75 days into the huge cash burn. Too little too late.
2) If you take a look at the Airbi' initial routes, you'll see that they're doing short hops in and out of MCO; they're not making the forecast transcons. FLYI does not have the luxury of getting the bugs worked out of the Airbi prior to making transcons; they'll be completely out of cash well before the transcons can make a difference.

This has been most entertaining. Let me know when one of you blows a gasket; sounds like more than a couple of you are about to lose it.

 

[46Driver]

LOL! That's funny. You and your FLYI 'brothers' don't mind gloating over at http://www.aca-lounge.com/ over the imminent demise of UAL and UAIR. I don't see you getting all worked up when you and fellow pilots gleefully discuss the acquisition of UAL and UAIR assets on a public forum; he!!, you even discussed the fact that you don't have to take the pilots with the assets from a liquidated airline. Don't crap on me for something that you and your fellow FLYIers do in front of a very public picture window in your 'house.'
And WTF; walking pilot resumes into ACA when they had pilots on furlough? How noble of you. Tell ya what; send me your resume and I'll hand carry it on over to UAL's hiring department next week.

Uh, if you read my post there supergenius, you will notice that I said I walked their resumes into my UNIT, i.e., getting them put on military orders to help out.

You can look, but I'll doubt if you'll find, any posts where I wish unemployment on anyone. I may speculate on different companies, and I may be blunt in discussing the future of them, but I harbor no ill will toward anyone personally.