Bad News for Indy

[Franky4Fingers]

I'm just wondering why this post is in the Majors forum.

The over zealous writer should have posted this in the regionals forum.

Scramjet

............................Uh O.K.

 

[Franky4Fingers]

The Do-Jets will be gone on Nov. 1

Associated Press
Analyst: Delta Troubles Could Sink FLYi
Tuesday October 19, 3:39 pm ET

NEW YORK (AP) -- Just four months after converting to a low-cost airline, FLYi Inc. faces potential bankruptcy as soon as January amid concerns over mounting oil prices and the deteriorating financial situation at Delta Air Lines Inc., an analyst said Tuesday.

UBS Investment Bank analyst Robert Ashcroft said he expects FLYi's September plane occupancy to be flat compared with August, when the airline's load factor declined to 45.1 percent from 47.1 percent. He noted that the carrier's late reporting of last month's traffic could signal disappointing figures.

With the added pressure of oil prices lingering in the $50-per-barrel range, FLYi -- now operating as Independence Air -- could see its yearly expenses soar by as much as $100 million, he said.

"It's clear to us that FLYi's business plan isn't working," Ashcroft wrote in a research note, adding that the former regional carrier based its discount concept on oil prices of about $30 per barrel and has not hedged against higher costs by purchasing fuel in advance. In recent trading, crude oil was down 72 cents to $52.95 per barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange.

The analyst downgraded FLYi to "Sell" from "Hold" while lowering Delta two notches to "Sell" from "Buy," joining the ranks of analysts that say Delta's September cash balance of $1.45 billion is "already in the danger zone" of necessitating a trip into Chapter 11.

Delta's looming bankruptcy filing, which Ashcroft expects in the near future, would give FLYi the extra burden of making rent payments on 30 planes it used to operate as a regional arm of Delta. Unable to assume lease liability for the jets because of its poor credit rating, Delta is "highly likely to walk away" from the planes, he said.

Ashcroft's report grounded shares of FLYi, which sank 26.5 percent or 90 cents, to $2.50 in midday Nasdaq activity. Meanwhile, Delta descended 4.5 percent, or 14 cents, to $2.97 on the New York Stock Exchange.

The analyst's forecast comes after industry observers last week watched several major U.S. airlines scour for ways to cut costs and stave off financial failure. The American Stock Exchange Airline Index retreated 2.7 percent, or 1.15 points, to 41.36 points in afternoon trading. FLYi's clouded future could dash the hopes of U.S. Airways Group Inc., which on Monday unveiled its plan to reorganize into a low-cost carrier in an effort to emerge from its second bankruptcy in four years.

 

[350DRIVER]

They were in a huge uphill battle from the start, the article surely isn't as surprising as it was expected.

3 5 0

 

[Skyrtr]

DoJets

The DoJets operated by ACA were supposed to go to Skyway in MKE, but the deal keeps getting put off. The articles posted above indicate that even if Delta wanted to keep the leases, they wouldn't be able to because of their terrible credit. Not sure where that leaves the Skyway deal. I'm starting training there soon, and it's mighty concerning. I doubt Skyway (Midwest Connect) would want to, or be able to qualify as the leaseholder of 30 more jets....

 

[Andy]

This should answer any questions about ALPA being a "brotherhood" when you are wishing unemployment and hardship upon others....

Hmmm. FLYI's pilots' decision to fly for lower wages "as long as we're not tied to UAL and get to fly the airbus for the lowest wages in the industry" certainly wasn't what I'd call a brotherly act. Don't try to sell me on that brotherhood crap; you boyz whored yourselves out to fly fifi.
As you well know, many within (and outside of) FLYI did not think that UAL could replace FLYI's feed. They did.
I saw plenty of gloating posts over UAL's tough times (which continue); do you expect me to care about your unemployment when I'm furloughed? Get a grip, pal.

Dude - that's uncool. Why would you wish unemployment on anyone - especially in your situation? I give them at least an "A" for effort. It takes ball$ to strike out on your own like that. You don't have to be a d!ck about it....

Why would I wish unemployment on them? I don't, as long as they fly RJs between IAD and Chatanooga, TN/Charleston, WV. But they're trying to fly the same GDammed routes that I used to fly in an airbus. I'd like to get my job back within the next 5 years, and FLYI adding transcon routes in the airbus is not going to get me back anytime soon; however, when they go tango uniform, UAL will need to add capacity to match demand.
Their gain was my loss. Their loss will move me closer to recall. If that makes me a d!ck, so be it. What do you want me to do; lie and say, 'boy, that really sux for FLYI; I sure hope u boyz make it?'

Load Factors dont mean jack until they bring out A319's.
We'll see what happens then.

What freaking planet are you from? FLYI is bleeding at least $1 mil/day due to low load factors (among other things, like a dumba$$ biz plan). Are you suggesting that adding capacity to an airline with abysmal loads will help? That's funny.

i think if you ask any flyi employee they would tell you that they would rather die standing than live bent over by united. oh, and by the way andy, sorry about your furlough.

As long as they're ready to die on their feet soon. The cash burn will bury FLYI very soon.
As far as being bent over by United, that's a matter of opinion. EVERYONE's taking a beating since 911. United had no choice but to ask FLYI to accept lower payments. United didn't pick on FLYI; they told everyone that they needed to accept cuts. FLYI refused; United got an unaffordable contract terminated in bankruptcy court.
No big thing as far as being furloughed. It's only been 2 1/2 years; I figure that I should be back by 2010. It's kinda hard to have sympathy for my prodigal 'brothers' when I'm staring at another 5+ years on the street.

 

[46Driver]

Well, I guess that's the difference. You gloat over me (possibly) going to the unemployment line. I handwalk two furloughed United bubbas resumes into my unit.

You may personally rejoice over FlyI's situation, but people losing jobs is not something you publicly announce with glee.

 

[PHXFLYR]

USMC 1
Air Corps Nothing


Nice 'tude Andy!


PHXFLYR

 

[Andy]

Well, I guess that's the difference. You gloat over me (possibly) going to the unemployment line. I handwalk two furloughed United bubbas resumes into my unit.

You may personally rejoice over FlyI's situation, but people losing jobs is not something you publicly announce with glee.

Pal, your company is using data collected while being UAL Express carrier to turn against them, and in the process essentially steal my job. Am I glad to see you greedy $OBs get your come uppance? You betcha. Seeya on the unemployment line. Or not; Florida lets me file electronically.

 

[FlyComAirJets]

Cry me a river.

Yeah, like UAL doesn't have any blood on their hands. Tell that to the early 90's-era Air Wisconsin pilots some who, interestingly enough, are at ACA.

 

[FlyComAirJets]

... and don't forget the (original) Frontier pilots, too!

 

[buzzer]

ANDY, When you refer to "greedy SOB's" I hope you mean some of the folks running the show. Perhaps some of the pilots would fit the bill (by drinking the coolaid), but most are just working for a paycheck and want their company to do well. As pilots, we have no control over our managements behavior...wish we did though.

In any case, if FLYI goes ch.11, couldn't that hurt UAL? They get to stick around while not paying bills. Doesn't look like they are taking any traffic from UAL though after reading the load factors from both airlines.

 

[skykid]

46DRIVER,

I wish we had more of a brotherhood. I wouldn't gloat over anybody's troubles. Say that reminds me, you posted something about "mortally wounding a major airline," way back when FLYI was getting going, referring to the affect they would have on UAL. I wish you guys the best of luck.

 

[zkmayo]

Andy,

If you were at ACA a year and a half ago, would you take a 3% pay cut and sink or swim on your own or let Ornstein and Mesa steamroll over you and then do the same work you just did for 30% less? The whole idea of working for JO (=Frank Lorenzo) was enough to make me puke. I would have left this place within months and done my **CENSORED****CENSORED****CENSORED****CENSORED**edest to drag the whole place down.

UAL was able to replace FLYI alright. With Mesa, Transtates, Shuttle America, Chataqua, Air Wiskey. Besides ARW, Im sure I forgot some other regional who used to fly for UAL ex but wasnt good enough but now is providing sooo much better feed and level of service. Oh, and that on time % is greaaattt....and customer svc, wow's everyone. And the facilities....they dont call the G terminal at IAD the Ghetto terminal for nothing.

The company felt that there was too much risk staying with UAL. For me I would rather fail on our own than be Mesa's ho. Only time will tell I guess...

As far as FLYI pilots being responsible for taking your job...give me a freakin break. Yeah, we were the ones who rammed airplanes into buildings. Yeah we were the ones whose management gave you Contract 2000, gave you 'Lets merge with USAir', gave you 'we'll get the business traveler back'. And, boy I tell you what, UAL's business plan has really changed alot since 9/11. Is that why UAL keeps getting those exclusive extensions in BK court bc their plan is so good??? No offense to any UAL pilot, including you, but take a look at the events around you, your management, and look in the mirror.

I wish you no ill will, only good luck. No matter where you work in this industry today, we all need that.

 

[Mosquito]

The "B" word

Pencil I-Air onto the bankruptcy rumor list: After just four months of operation, I-Air is "looking at large losses" and a potential Chapter 11 filing" by January, said a Wall Street analyst quoted by The Washington Post (free registration). "It's clear to us that Flyi's business plan isn't working," UBS Investment Research Robert Ashcroft wrote in a research note. I-Air spokesman Rick DeLisi wouldn't comment on the Wall Street change, telling The Associated Press: "We wouldn't talk about something that's speculative." The carrier is scheduled to report its third-quarter results a week from today. Ashcroft said high fuel costs were primarily to blame for his dire projections on I-Air. Ironically, Delta's woes could also have an impact on I-Air. Ashcroft tells AP/Forbes that if Delta files for bankruptcy — as many expect — such a move could saddle I-Air with rent payments on 30 planes it previously operated as a regional partner for Delta, which would likely walk away from its leases. Now, for the good news: Even if I-Air does file for bankruptcy — and that's a BIG if — the carrier would likely continue to operate as normal for the foreseeable future as it reorganizes in bankruptcy. I-Air's earnings report will give a better glimpse if bankruptcy is a real threat — or just speculation. Posted at 9 a.m. ET

http://www.usatoday.com/travel/flights/today/sky.htm
Doesn't Look good, Best of luck to my formers employees and friends.

 

[metroplex]

it might work out better for Skyway with the DOrnier jets. If deltas cash is to low to assume the leases, flyi will be stcuk with them , something they can not afford. so they might get rid of them really cheap, just to lower their burden.

 

[46Driver]

46DRIVER,

I wish we had more of a brotherhood. I wouldn't gloat over anybody's troubles. Say that reminds me, you posted something about "mortally wounding a major airline," way back when FLYI was getting going, referring to the affect they would have on UAL. I wish you guys the best of luck.

If you say I did, then I probably did - but I would like to see the entire quote in context. It sounds more like an analytical observation of what I thought would happen - not wishing ill upon any of the employees there.

 

[WSurf]

Andy,

Thats a crappy comment to make! What comes around in this busy, usually goes around. Enjoy your furlough and your attitude!

To my ACA brothers! I want to wish you luck, I have a bunch of old FlightSafety people over there! Good luck, I can say your one of the few Regional Airlines that has a pair!

 

[treetopflyer]

andy, im sorry that you bought into all that military spoon-fed bull while drinking martinis at the 0-club in spokane. you werent owed "your" united job and flyi didn't "take" it from you if you have been on the street that long you could have gotten two different J4J jobs with both skywest and mesa that all you had to do was to show up and sign up for some work.. you wouldn't even have to go to the trouble of knocking your squadron ring on the table for the job. it was given to you by your alpa brothers at mesa that "took" your job. but i guess since you are a skygod why would you want to fly anything like a rj for second year pay.

in other words, cry me a river biaatch and get a job...

 

[FlyingDawg]

I shorted the stock when they announced they were going at it alone. I just thought they would have a hard time at first like so many startups. I guessed right. I was thinking about covering the short until this new press release. Instead I placed a stop-loss order to protect me against any upswings and still allowing profit if it sinks any lower. Anyone else playing this game?

 

[skykid]

"It sounds more like an analytical observation of what I thought would happen - not wishing ill upon any of the employees there."


46DRIVER, I think that is a fair statement. Changing subjects, I don't think anyone can blame FLYI mgt - planning fuel expenses at $30/barrel was logical - now contending with it over $50? Absolutely crazy.