Bad News for Indy

[DCMartin]

Yes, I am suggesting that.

What freaking planet are you from? FLYI is bleeding at least $1 mil/day due to low load factors (among other things, like a dumba$$ biz plan). Are you suggesting that adding capacity to an airline with abysmal loads will help? That's funny.

Well, Let me try to explain this simply. One of the main reasons load factors are down are because they are only using RJ's. Who really wants to go from CHO to IAD. People really want to go from CHO to PHX or LAX etc... When the Airbuses roll out I think the load factors on the RJ's, and eventually the Airbuses will go up.

Would anyone want to run a LCC with ONLY RJ's....NO...for many reasons. The company hasnt even begun thier business plan. They are still transitioning. They were planning on losing money during this transitional phase. So their current load factors are not a good judgement of how the company is going to perform.

Now I dont think they were planning on the high fuel prices so their cash reserve could dwindle more quickly than they thought. But if they start threatning bankruptcy, I believe it will be to try to keep the 30 328 leases from being forced upon them.

As for you ANDY, chill with your bad attitude. Most of us are in this industry for the same reasons. Put most of the guys from INDY or this industry in your shoes when you were 25 and they probably would have ended up exactly where you are. All though I dont know if they'd be as bitter.

 

[General Lee]

The problem is the 85 CRJs. In order to turn a profit, they must have high frequency due to the very low fares they post to compete with the legacies. When there is bad weather, flow problems to NYC, ATL, or ORD etc---it can screw up the frequency. Then throw in $54 a barrel oil, and they really need more seats to break even. Sure, they are getting A319s----but where do you fly them? They are starting with MCO and TPA I believe, and that is good because the stage lengths are shorter--allowing more turns per day. But, when they start West Coast stuff---the flight times will be 5 hours or more each way, and that will allow the plane to only do about 4 legs each (doing transcons). That will limit the revenue--because everyone else is flying transcons at $99 each way (Southwest, Jetblue, CO, and others). It will be interesting to see where they put the rest of the new A319s. I would say go South more---versus West. You can charge $99 also going South, but add an extra leg each day and not burn as much fuel on the long transcons.....



Bye Bye--General Lee

 

[Heavy Set]

The problem is the 85 CRJs. In order to turn a profit, they must have high frequency due to the very low fares they post to compete with the legacies. When there is bad weather, flow problems to NYC, ATL, or ORD etc---it can screw up the frequency. Then throw in $54 a barrel oil, and they really need more seats to break even. Sure, they are getting A319s----but where do you fly them? They are starting with MCO and TPA I believe, and that is good because the stage lengths are shorter--allowing more turns per day. But, when they start West Coast stuff---the flight times will be 5 hours or more each way, and that will allow the plane to only do about 4 legs each (doing transcons). That will limit the revenue--because everyone else is flying transcons at $99 each way (Southwest, Jetblue, CO, and others). It will be interesting to see where they put the rest of the new A319s. I would say go South more---versus West. You can charge $99 also going South, but add an extra leg each day and not burn as much fuel on the long transcons.....



Bye Bye--General Lee

It's certainly not over yet for Indy. But I can't understand why they would believe the RJ model would work - especially after Midway went bust with its 737/CRJ model. Clearly they never thought gas would be so expensive - nobody predicted that. But operating high-frequency CRJ service on the delay-prone East Coast just doesn't seem to make a lot of sense. First, you would need lower fares to attract passengers away from the legacies with their loyalty programs - this would basically limit the amount of revenue you could generate per RJ flight. And yet you would need high load factors with the low fares to just break even - you would have a very high breakeven load factor. However, with the high likelihood of weather or traffic delays in the Northeast, I think the high-frequency model becomes extremely vulnerable to delays and the model starts to break down (the delay domino effect starts to upset passengers unless extra aircraft are provided)...

Bottom line, you need either volume OR frequency if you are going to charge low fares and still expect to make a profit in the LCC market. So, there are already two strikes against Indy: the Northeast does not support frequency (especially during the winter) and the CRJ does not provide seat volume. How many ground holds does it take to break down the frequency model? The A319s are a step in the right direction, but they will also need to be flown in a high-frequency mode in order to provide a source of profit for the company (long, 4-5 hour trips will limit the number of frequencies they can be flown per day and will thus reduce the opportunity for more needed revenue). I agree with the General, the A319s should be flown South in order to provide enough frequency to make money on those airplanes.

 

[Andy]

Well, I guess that's the difference. You gloat over me (possibly) going to the unemployment line. I handwalk two furloughed United bubbas resumes into my unit.
You may personally rejoice over FlyI's situation, but people losing jobs is not something you publicly announce with glee.

LOL! That's funny. You and your FLYI 'brothers' don't mind gloating over at http://www.aca-lounge.com/ over the imminent demise of UAL and UAIR. I don't see you getting all worked up when you and fellow pilots gleefully discuss the acquisition of UAL and UAIR assets on a public forum; he!!, you even discussed the fact that you don't have to take the pilots with the assets from a liquidated airline. Don't crap on me for something that you and your fellow FLYIers do in front of a very public picture window in your 'house.'
And WTF; walking pilot resumes into ACA when they had pilots on furlough? How noble of you. Tell ya what; send me your resume and I'll hand carry it on over to UAL's hiring department next week.

If you were at ACA a year and a half ago, would you take a 3% pay cut and sink or swim on your own or let Ornstein and Mesa steamroll over you and then do the same work you just did for 30% less? The whole idea of working for JO (=Frank Lorenzo) was enough to make me puke.

That was AFTER your pilots and management rejected UAL's offer of reduced guaranteed profits to ACAI and decided to go it alone. JO & Mesa didn't make the move until after Indy Air was announced.
And if you want to talk pay cuts, my pay on the Airbus was cut by 35%. Hardly worth returning for those peanuts.

Andy,
Thats a crappy comment to make! What comes around in this busy, usually goes around. Enjoy your furlough and your attitude!

Yes, what comes around goes around in this 'busy.' FLYI's pilots have been salivating at the prospect of picking over the bones of UAIR and UAL for quite some time. (Read http://www.aca-lounge.com/ if you don't believe me). FLYI's employees enjoyed their schadenfrude, so I guess it's now coming back to haunt them.

andy, im sorry that you bought into all that military spoon-fed bull while drinking martinis at the 0-club in spokane. you werent owed "your" united job and flyi didn't "take" it from you if you have been on the street that long you could have gotten two different J4J jobs with both skywest and mesa that all you had to do was to show up and sign up for some work.. you wouldn't even have to go to the trouble of knocking your squadron ring on the table for the job. it was given to you by your alpa brothers at mesa that "took" your job. but i guess since you are a skygod why would you want to fly anything like a rj for second year pay.

in other words, cry me a river biaatch and get a job...

LOL! I've got a job. It pays me six figures and I'm home every night. It may not be flying, but it's got it's perks. I'd have a very hard time whoring myself out for 2nd year RJ pay. Everybody's got their price; mine's just a he!!uva lot higher than yours.


DCMartin, two counterpoints to your argument.
1) FLYI's management forecast loads better than 60% at this point in time. Since it is 44%, that means that most of FLYI's pax are paying the lowest two buckets of fares, not the top three. That means not only loads, but also yields are well below forecast. FLYI doesn't have a ton of cash to burn; I've seen estimates of $1-2 mil/day in losses. That gives FLYI 100-200 days (consider the clock to have started Aug 15) before reaching a critical point in declaring chap 11. It will take much longer than that to get the Airbi operating at sufficient quantity to make a difference. The first Airbus won't even be on line until Nov; 75 days into the huge cash burn. Too little too late.
2) If you take a look at the Airbi' initial routes, you'll see that they're doing short hops in and out of MCO; they're not making the forecast transcons. FLYI does not have the luxury of getting the bugs worked out of the Airbi prior to making transcons; they'll be completely out of cash well before the transcons can make a difference.

This has been most entertaining. Let me know when one of you blows a gasket; sounds like more than a couple of you are about to lose it.

 

[46Driver]

LOL! That's funny. You and your FLYI 'brothers' don't mind gloating over at http://www.aca-lounge.com/ over the imminent demise of UAL and UAIR. I don't see you getting all worked up when you and fellow pilots gleefully discuss the acquisition of UAL and UAIR assets on a public forum; he!!, you even discussed the fact that you don't have to take the pilots with the assets from a liquidated airline. Don't crap on me for something that you and your fellow FLYIers do in front of a very public picture window in your 'house.'
And WTF; walking pilot resumes into ACA when they had pilots on furlough? How noble of you. Tell ya what; send me your resume and I'll hand carry it on over to UAL's hiring department next week.

Uh, if you read my post there supergenius, you will notice that I said I walked their resumes into my UNIT, i.e., getting them put on military orders to help out.

You can look, but I'll doubt if you'll find, any posts where I wish unemployment on anyone. I may speculate on different companies, and I may be blunt in discussing the future of them, but I harbor no ill will toward anyone personally.

 

[zkmayo]

Andy,


Actually our pilot group overwhelmingly approved the UAL TA for a 7.5% paycut, but our mgmt did not come to a new agreement with UAL. So again, stop blaming our pilots for your problems.

 

[f9driver]

Andy the Bitter!

Man, you are a real "headcase"! I thought the USAF had mental tests that would weed out wackos like that.
United's problems had more to do with your former Polish MEC Chairman Dumbkowski?...than any secrets ACA "stole" from you. This isn't top secret technology and they(Indy) are not responsible for your furlough. Get a life and quit playing the victim. You are one nasty "trash-hauling" dude.

 

[Mikes Apartment]

Andy,


I feel your pain brotha.....

Got news for you though. You're never going back to United. Get that chip off your shoulder and sack up.....it's time to get a new job.

Peace out

 

[70Cuda]

To Andy

Wow!! You are in desperate need of psychotheropy. The way you aggressively (almost psychotic-like) pick and choose completely out of context facts and quotes in such a pathetic attempt to support your rediculous position is just too funny, and sad. Anger seems to have gotten the best of you and is now CLEARLY affecting your ability to draw rational conclusions. Does the phrase "emotional displacement" ring a bell for you?

The truly sad part about your situation is that you are probably in complete denial of your condition, which is quite common among head-cases like yourself, and will continue to bring dark clouds over the heads of those who are unfortunate enough cross your path (....God help your poor wife and children).

I suggest (if for nothing else, a good laugh) you reread your string of pathetic and disconnected comments in a calm and objective state of mind. You will then surely understand what I'm getting at. If so, then the next step for your recovery is to admit you have a problem--just like alcoholics and drug addicts must to do--and seek psychological help. If not, then I'm sorry to say you will probably go to your grave as one of those bitter old farts who blame everyone else for their problems and give nothing but misery to those around them.

 

[20sx]

Actually, this guy is pretty sad. He posted obvious flamebait twice to get a response from anonymous posters on a message board. Just looking to spread his own pain and suffering to others, which is half why this message board even exists anymore.

Andy, go on over to the yahoo board, that's where the serious Independence bashing goes on.

 

[Tug Driver]

Downgrade hits Independence Air
Stock tumbles 26 percent over viability concerns http://www.marketwatch.com/1.gif By Matt Andrejczak, CBS.MarketWatch.com
Last Update: 3:07 PM ET Oct. 19, 2004 SAN FRANCISCO (CBS.MW) - Independence Air tumbled more than 26 percent Tuesday over fresh concerns the fledgling low-fare carrier might fail before it succeeds.

UBS downgraded its parent FLYi to "reduce" from "neutral," noting the airline's business plan has not met targets.

UBS warned Independence Air could slide into Chapter 11 bankruptcy filing in January when a large aircraft rent payment comes due. Industry analysts peg the semi-annual payment on the 50-seat jets between $60 million to $100 million.

"It's clear to us that FLYi's business plan is not working," UBS analyst Robert Ashcroft wrote in a research note. "We believe the chance of (a) FLYi Ch. 11 is about 65 percent."

Shares of Independence Air (FLYI: news, chart, profile) fell 89 cents to $2.51 in late afternoon trading.


The answer is clear....
Its time to buy Flyi stock!!!

I would almost bet that the author of the above article is on the UAL payroll, trying to incite a riot.

 

[46Driver]

Wonder if it is the same UBS?




Associated Press
Reports: Banks Added to Parmalat Probe
Thursday October 21, 11:19 am ET Four Banks, One Asset Management Company Under Investigation in Parmalat Probe, Reports Say

ROME (AP) -- Prosecutors in Milan have added four banks and an Italian bank's asset management arm to their investigation into the collapse of Italian dairy giant Parmalat, news reports said Thursday.

The prosecutors cited Citigroup Inc., UBS AG, Deutsche Bank AG, Morgan Stanley and Banca Intesa's asset management arm Nextra, the ANSA and Apcom news agencies reported. Judicial officials did not return phone calls seeking confirmation.

The investigators allege possible market rigging, the reports said.

 

[Peleton]

Andy-

First of all UAL offered us(ACA) a deal that ensured our own demise. A 5 year deal with a 3 year faze out clause. They offered us 10 70 seat aircraft, we all know you need 15 of a fleet type to break even using revenue sharing program. The long term program UAL offered us would ensure that ACA would be out of UEX by the end of 2009.

Secondly, why would we steal info from UAL? During our brand training we were told to do everything opposite of the way we did UAL ops. UAL ops did not work, as a Chpt 11 filing has indicated. Our manuals are the complete opposite of what they were under UEX. We hired our own people to research cities and set up destinations, we did not steal from UAL at all.

Thirdly, if you blame FLYI for your problems you need to get help, maybe your new job offers ESP or at the very least somebody you can talk to. The industry has changed and people like you are the reason it is in the state it is right now. Customers only care about one thing, PRICE, everything else is just gravy. PRICE is the king and will everymore be labled as that.

Fourthly, we are presently in version 0.4, we have not even got to version 1.0 yet. You have no idea what will happen, and guess what neither does anybody else, we are all along for the ride.

Lastly, you seem to agree with Ashcroft that we are doomed, remember those are the same analyists that stated we were going to bought by MESA. The same guy that had DAL a buy until last week. The same guy who likes to make predictions based upon half of the information. Running an IJET is not expensive and the differencce i cost between 55 dollars a compared to 40 on oil prices is very small in the grand scheme.

In summary, if we file SO WHAT!! We shed the Velcro Jets and move on a little leaner than before. We offer lower prices that undermind UALs prices and cause even more headaches for your guys. If we survive we still offer a better prodduct at lower prices and cause headaches for your guys. If we go out of buisness a new airline takes our place and they undercut UAL even more out of IAD. My point is that it is a very competitive industry right now and we have an overcapacity problem right now throughout the East Coast, until somebody pulls off 300 jets and destroys them the market will ccontinue to drive down prices for travelers and make it hard for the airlines to survive.

 

[GVFlyer]

I was on the ALPA website today and they were saying that Independence is flying with less than 50% loads and would probably file Chapter 11 in January. What's up with that?

 

[frjmx328]

I wished unemployment on you Andy. Read my posts. Glad your not flying anymore, one less dip**CENSORED****CENSORED****CENSORED****CENSORED** for me to deal with. By the way, I stuck up for the US guys. UAL can eat my **CENSORED****CENSORED****CENSORED****CENSORED**, and its nice to be in multiple flt decks daily. Too bad your not Andy.......I'll think of you tomorrow though watching all those beautiful jets take off and land. I almost feel bad for you until you open your mouth. You currently make over 6 figures a year, yet in a previous post you state how you want your job back. Why? Have you not been paying attention? Your either a liar or too f*ucking stupid to realize what you have now compaired to what you stand to lose at the airlines. Get a hobby homeboy, no one misses you.

 

[ChinaClipper]

Ahhhhhh...feel the love!

In all this discussion we forgot to mention the genesis of ACA...its name originated from being the Atlantic Coast Division of......WestAir. They were brought in to fill the void left by the crushing of BOTH AWAC and Presidential, the search was for a "cheaper" alternative. Back when I was stuck @ Mesa, a few misguided ACA guys were giving us crap for being the "undercutters" etc. They looked as if they were in grade school when Presidential and AWAC got the hatchet....and replaced by the "Lower Cost Alternative"......ACA..... What short term memories we seem to have.....BTW FlyI is doomed if they think a walk up fare IAD-ORD for $79 is a good idea for ANYONE! In any case, I hope we all have a job, FlyI has put a major dent in revenue for everyone at a bad time. My current employer, F9, is not looking forward to under cutting from FlyI IAD-DEN. Competition is one thing, suicide by bad investment is quite another....

 

[FutureTEDpilot]

China Clipper,





Excellent post. ACA guys need to think about history and stop blaming UAL for the current woes of Indy. The big problem is Skeen! I guess he aint keeping such a "Skeen eye on things"

I was once a Blueridge driver! Hope it works for you guys, but stop flicking your middle finger at me with my back turned, yes UAL is hurting but why wish ill will on us?

We aint all bad at UAL!

--Ex J41 Jock--

 

[Kohflot]

From the FlyI website:

In December 2002, United went into bankruptcy and tried to force us to change the way we had done business in the past, by offering all of its partners a significantly inferior contract. Some accepted the risks of continuing with a bankrupt major airline. But we had a better plan.

This is the question I've always asked: Did SkyWest really get such an inferior contract too? If it's so bad, how are they still making as much money as they are?

I'm not trying to bash anyone, just curious...

 

[smellthejeta]

From the FlyI website:

In December 2002, United went into bankruptcy and tried to force us to change the way we had done business in the past, by offering all of its partners a significantly inferior contract. Some accepted the risks of continuing with a bankrupt major airline. But we had a better plan.

This is the question I've always asked: Did SkyWest really get such an inferior contract too? If it's so bad, how are they still making as much money as they are?

I'm not trying to bash anyone, just curious...

I'm not sure the exit was for short term reasons, which is why ARW and SkyWest signed their contract. Indy knew that *their* long term viability with that new contract was zilch. Why let United bleed Indy's bank account over a long period of time, leaving them no cash when they finally kick them out in 2009? Better to cut your losses now while you still have cash in the bank. Some rumors I've heard had ACA mgmt floating plans for an independent carrier *long* before the UAL fiasco. If that was indeed the case, you can bet they'll use *any* PR spin they can to claim that UAL forced them out.

Interestingly enough, I thought that if UAL liquidated, the big three express carriers had enough presence to continue as is. All they would need is some mainline size jets to fly the bigger markets and transcons and the res/operations infrastructure.

Also realize that a vast majority of SkyWest feed is for Delta, and very little of it is for United, and that ARW lost their AirTran routes. Until United sinks, I think SkyWest figured they could ride it out as long as they didn't lose money on UAL, and well, ARW doesn't serve the population centers that ACA did.

 

[Always deferred]

Keep in mind, those who wish ill will towards UAL or any other company are in the minority. Many of us have worked at or have family/friends who work at UAL. Those with sour attitudes exist at every airline and somehow all find their way to these forums. I can only speak for myself when I say that I am proud to be part of an airline that people enjoy flying on and proud to be part of a profession with such a distinguished if not rocky history, and I do my best to project that everyday. I wish no misfortune on anyone. Just show up, fly safely and professionally, and try to make the passengers come back again. The end.

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