OK, I will.
1. Autopilot defered
Not in and of itself a refusal to fly. As you said there are other factors, such as destination, alternate and enroute WX, RVSM and fuel requirements. Any other write ups? Does the FD work? Above 10,000 the FO flies.
2. Green FO (second flight off O.E.)
Depends. Have I flown with him/her before? What was his/her experience prior to employment? This also depends on what one thinks of the training department. Generally speaking this would be last on my list unless he's incompetent.
3. Flying MEM to BOS
Also depends. What leg of the day? How's the day going so far? Dest./Alt. WX? As long as it's not on an OTS.
4. Thunderstorms along the route and up and down the Eastern Seaboard.
Again, depends. Isolate, scattered, systemic, embedded, destination, alternate? This could be number 2, depending on the "quality" of the FO. Lots of variables here, but it depends on the radar, satellite and forecasts. Granted, evening operations in one of the NYNJPA (Sewark, La Garbage or the Swamp) airports might change my mind.
I also said this:
Calling in fatigued and bragging about it is unseemly and unprofessional. Saying or thinking that you "stuck it to the man" is counter-productive and solves nothing. Now, if there are multiple deferrals adding to the complexity, this also changes things. Been there, done that, and pushed back, but I had a case with multiple factors every time.