First Peak Oil is going to be reached in the next 2-3 years. It will probably be followed by a plateau of oil production till about 2011, then a slow steady decline in the production amount.
The Oil Depletion Analysis Center and the Association for the Study of Peak Oil and Gas both come up with around 2007-2008 as the date, by studying the depletions of the depleting countries and the increases in production from the growing oil production countries. They do this by studying ALL of the MEGA PROJECTS and announced projects which take 10 years to go from beginning to end. They already know how much oil is going to be produced for the next ten years.
According to CHEVRON at their
www.willyoujoinus.com website:
33 of the 48 major oil producing countries are in IRREVERSIBLE DECLINE in their oil production. HENCE 33 of the major oil producing countries have REACHED PEAK OIL like the United States did in 1970.
THESE FACTS ARE UNDENIABLE AND SCARY.
All of the major oil producing companies of the U.S. are also in DECLINE.
DENIAL IS NORMAL, BUT OUR WORLD IS CHANGING. People like Matthew Simmons, Colin Campbell, and myself are scared we're not prepared. We're trying to get the word out so alternatives begin quickly. High oil prices are actually good for us. Alternatives will start to be developed more quickly.
The ONLY reason oil prices have stayed so low since around 1980 is because there HAS ALWAYS BEEN an excess amount of oil for the world, and if the price began to go up the countries would pump more oil so that people wouldn't switch to alternatives.
The spare capacity has historically been around 5 million barrels a day. We currently have 1 million barrels per day SPARE.
In the 4th QUARTER OF 2005, we're supposed to be NEGATIVE TWO MILLION barrels per day spare capacity.
In the 4th quarter of this year oil
DEMAND was projected to be 86 million barrels per day, but OIL PRODUCTION is only supposed to be 84 million barrels per day. OOPS 1 million barrels per day just got wiped out in the Gulf of Mexico, so that makes 83 million per day for now. Let's hope they get those rigs pumping oil soon or else we're going to see the crude inventories severely depleted. The same is happening for natural gas.
Peak Oil is NOT A DOOMS DAY SCENARIO. It only means we'll have to live with less oil every year. It's just going to get more expensive that's all. We'll just have to use other sources of energy.
This transition SHOULD have been initiated 20 years ago and it would have been a smooth transition. I pray the transition, since we've waited so long, won't be too chaotic.
Making coal into liquids will be the first thing we'll do, which is supposed to be many years away from producing even a million barrels a day. Bio-fuels are also about a decade away from producing about a million barrels a day.
We have a lot of work to do.
Jet