Alaska News?

[msmb]

I thought swa stopped the transcons?

 

[Fubijaakr]

First - two years is an eternity in this industry.

Second - SWA has had a pretty tough time competing with AS. I think that Hawaiian is more afraid than AS is. Two financially healthy 737-800 opeartors operating from the west coast, each with there own feed cannot be good news at Hawaiian.

Both excellent points. It took AS 720 days to get ETOPS certification. Anyone who thinks Allegiant or SWA will take less time is dreaming. So there's a couple years of pad.

And SWA hasn't been outstandingly successful competing in the NW with AS. While AS and QX flights are routinely full and/or overbooked, SWA runs NW flights half or 3/4s full. Good for commuters, but not really a threat to AS/QX.

 

[HAL]

Hawaiian has got to be shaking in their boots. Filling an 800 to capacity and running it to the islands will always be cheaper than a 767 or 330 at reduced capacity. Fact is, their loads ARE down and AS has as many weekly departures there as they do.

And you got your HA load information from where? Every flight I've been doing for the last year has been as full or fuller than it has been for the previous several years. Our loads aren't falling, so you guys are just bringing in additional tourists (and the hotel bookings prove this out). Look at our published LF numbers and you'll see we're not suffering. As long as you keep bringing people to the islands, we all win.

HAL

 

[Dan Roman]

Yes, two years is a long time in our biz. That being said, I think AS' best HI ops will be these next two years. Competition is coming, and it is inevitable that the loads will reflect that.

Hawaiian has got to be shaking in their boots. Filling an 800 to capacity and running it to the islands will always be cheaper than a 767 or 330 at reduced capacity. Fact is, their loads ARE down and AS has as many weekly departures there as they do.
My concern is how many west coast cities is SWA planning on launching from that AS already serves? SWA will HAVE to change their inflight customer service styles to make it attractive enough for the cattle to sign up for a 5-6 hour ride.

I also attended a SIC seminar recently, and "BM" thinks it will be mid 2012 at the earliest that SWA can be ready. He also thinks Allegiant has similar timeframe issues. So, yes, the time for AS to reap the benefits of limited capacity is now through the next two years. After that the game is going to change. BLI, with a heavy Canadian pax influence, could be a real gold mine. But, how many other untapped gold mines are out there?

These are good times for AS. I also agree with idea that many have posted here that AS will grow in it's traditional conservative fashion. Too bad, because we could all use about 400 numbers below us!

Just my two cents from an already half-empty glass.

Very odd you would say "fact is."

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Hawaiian-Airlines-increases-apf-2002781072.html?x=0&.v=1

Our traffic is up 12%. We have accelerated delivery of larger A330's because we need them, not because we are afraid of shrinking. AK has had no negative effect on Hawaiian that I can see. For example, I fly a lot of PDX trips. It is very rare to have more than a few empty seats. We do get revenue from AK when the jetstream kicks in though, we carry AK bags and if we have room they put passengers on us, and it's not a cheap ticket.

LAX to Hawaii has more airlines than any other route, yet we converted two flights a day to the A330 and with 50 extra seats and they were instantly snapped up, very high load factors on those routes. As HAL said, there is plenty of room for multiple airlines to bring people to Hawaii. The passengers AK brought to Hawaii didn't come from Hawaiian, but they did help boost the economy here, which is good for Hawaiian.

The seat mile costs are substantially lower on the 767 than on any 737. Think of it this way, a Hawaiian flight has about 250 or more passengers on it, to carry the same people to Hawaii on a 737 it would take two 737's, much more expensive. A lot of people like Hawaiian Air and they have a very strong marketing advantage flying to Hawaii because they are in fact "Hawaiian".

Hawaiian has no problem filling wide bodies to the west coast, their focus is now on expanding to Asia. Our Haneda flight is doing very well and the yield on those flights are much higher than what any west coast flight would be, Inchon, Korea is next which should do well as we have a good code share with Korean. Hawaiian plans to add 1 or 2 Asian destinations a year for the next five years.

If SWA comes to Hawaii it will boost the economy, which helps Hawaiian. Although it will hurt the traffic problem here on the North Shore.

 

[wscrj]

"chuckle"....looks like the HA guys shut this thread down pretty quick.

 

[CGHercster]

Good to hear

I'm glad to hear HA is doing just fine.

 

[ghostrider16]

whoop a dee doo!

 

[tico]

Both excellent points. It took AS 720 days to get ETOPS certification. Anyone who thinks Allegiant or SWA will take less time is dreaming. So there's a couple years of pad.

And SWA hasn't been outstandingly successful competing in the NW with AS. While AS and QX flights are routinely full and/or overbooked, SWA runs NW flights half or 3/4s full. Good for commuters, but not really a threat to AS/QX.

As to point one: Alaska Airlines has a long history of taking the longest to do everything. Either airline could probably do it in a year.

As to point two: Southwest has not bothered competing with Alaska Airlines yet...Too much out there for easy picking....Rest assured that when they come at Alaska in earnest, it will not be pretty and you will be asked for concessions

 

[RNP.15]

Give me a break. They came after Alaska already, and Alaska has held there own.

 

[Fubijaakr]

Give me a break. They came after Alaska already, and Alaska has held there own.

Exactly. They came after us in GEG, BOI and PDX. The used to have 6 flights a day between GEG and SEA. Now they have 3 and those are usually half full.