I'm not saying whether I'm voting for it or not but I bet you it passes 60/40.
First, let me say that you are absolutely entitled to your opinion and your vote. We live in a democratic society (mostly) and this is a union, not an autocracy, so you can vote how you like.
However, since you posted here, in the spirit of debate and trying to spread the TRUTH about this T.A., I'll answer your assertions one at a time.
First, I'll take that bet. My bet is it will fail 60/40. What shall the wager be?
Was flying today and the Captain had his laptop with the TA on it. We compared to the current contract. The 3 givebacks were the door closing, the PPO plan, and current reserve pay.
No, there's a LOT more concessions in it than that, or did you miss the rebuttal bulletpoints in my signature below? You may not agree with my politics, but I can quote you section, paragraph, and page that PROVE every single one of my points.
1. Section 1.C.3, pages 8 and 9. Scope. Major concession #1.
2. Section 2, giving up window or aisle seats for deadheads.
3-7. Section 4, 737-800 is now considered a SNB aircraft. Loss of door close. Loss of reserve pay. Loss of new-hire F/O pay from $42.75 down to $38.50, approximately a 9% pay CUT for new-hires. I'm sure your friends hired on after you will LOVE you for it...
8-11. Section 5, loss of no ready reserve after a flight assignment. Loss of build-up lines (move-ups are NOT guaranteed to exist in the final solution). Loss of first deadhead return to base after a flight assignment = LINEHOLDER ready reserve at outstations. Loss of no SAP 1 floor coverages = say hello to "denied due to min reserve coverage" in SAP 1.
12-14. Section 12. Concession of INCREASED premiums for EVERY plan. Concession of INCREASED co-pays with NO limits on increase. Loss of ability to elect into PPO plan.
15-16. Section 13. Concession of grievance timeline to company - we miss a deadline, we lose the grievance automatically. Concession of the access for EVERY pilot to at least the System Board level for grievances.
17. Section 14. Concession of "failure to recommend" counts as checkride failure towards your limit of events you can fail to be terminated without recourse.
18-19. Section 18. Concession to allow company to continue outsourced RJ operations if we furlough pilots. Concession of loss of 14-day notice or pay in lieu of before being furloughed as a result of a strike from another group of employees.
That's nearly 20 concessions, right off the top of my head, ALL of which can be proven in the T.A. Guess you didn't get that far into the document during your trip.
If we lost 5 minutes every leg we would lose 5% per month. Realistically with underblock legs and 1-3 minute average of door close to movement it equates to about 2% concession.
Actually, that's correct. The Negotiating Committee and Allen Philpot both agreed this was a 2% loss as taken over the entire pilot group historically over a year's time.
But that's not the real problem. The real problem is with your math below.
We both calculated about a 9% raise initially, so approx 7% raise.
That's essentially correct for you. Your Captain is likely in the 4-5% raise bracket if he's a year 5-9 CA.
You're missing one basic piece of information: your looking at pay rates you haven't seen a raise on since 2004. That's 3 years. Check out this link for more information:
http://home.earthlink.net/~lear70/Salary_Comparison_TA_2.pdf
You'll see 4 items. The first one I'll point out is where we SHOULD be in salaries, IF we had ONLY gained Cost Of Living Adjustments (COLA) for each year after the amendable date. Hint: our pay at Date Of Signing is LESS than the 2004 rates adjusted for ACTUAL inflation numbers from the U.S. Government.
So you're signing for a pay cut from what an F/O at your longevity made in 2004. Sounds GREAT, right?
The current reserve pay everyone knew would be gone but we got long call reserve and min 12 days off.
Let's take a closer look at that. Are you SURE we got long-call reserve? Can you show me where, in the T.A. the company is REQUIRED to leave Tactical Reserve lines in the FINAL line solution after the 28th? Hint: you can't. They can make all those Tactical Reserves into Move-Up lineholders and have ZERO TR's in the actual solution.
Just like our CURRENT contract... did you know we HAVE long-call reserve NOW? Sure we do... CURRENT CBA Section 5.E.6.d.1.d, page 5-2-6, RLC Reserve Long Call 0000-2200. Problem is, we didn't REQUIRE the Company to have them in the final solution, JUST like this T.A. You'll never see them after Move-Up lines are constructed.
Second, 12 days off? You were already GETTING 10-11 days off with the ability to drop reserve days. SO... you want to give up the reserve pay system for 1 extra day off half the year, 2 extra days off the other half of the year, when you ALREADY HAVE the ability to get 12 days off a month on reserve if you want it (I sat reserve 7 months and was ALWAYS able to get at least 13-14 days off a month), PLUS you want to give up 30-40 hours of pay for those extra 1 or 2 days?
That's one HELL of a concession in my book. I WISH one day of flying credited 15-20 hours... NOT a fair trade-off for the Twome give-back.
We retained most of the current book and some improvements.
I think I just undisputedly disproved that statement.
If the TA goes down, rumor has it the mediator is booked solid for 6 months.
That's not a rumor. That's a fact. Tosi has already said that and AP has already come out with that information publicly. First available slot is the end of January.
Is it worth 9 months delay for the door closing?
You mean, is it worth 9 months' delay for 20 contract concessions, industry average CA pay, and well BELOW industry average F/O pay?
It seems the company got some and we got some. The pay rates minus the Fo first year are industry standard with other equipment of the same size (airline pilot central).
That is COMPLETELY incorrect. Check that link above I gave you, it has the SNB pay average from EVERY major airline, NOT INCLUDING the cargo carriers so it would be as accurate as possible, for both CA and F/O.
The F/O's are WELL below industry average at Date Of Signing. That's a FACT, and AP has agreed to that as has the NC. They keep stressing the quick upgrades that are becoming farther and farther away as their reasoning for accepting below-industry-average F/O rates. Ask them, they'll tell you...
The CA's are pretty close to industry-standard, yet below inflation-adjusted pay from 2004 (the amendable date).
The opinion of the individuals on this website seem to be much more extreme and negative compared to the pilots I have talked to. Still I'm going to think long and hard before I cast my vote.
This site has always been the vocal minority. However, if we can get every one of our pilots to at least READ the information I've given you here today and on my website, at least they will know the TRUTH.
If they vote YES knowing they're signing for sub-standard pay and more than 20 sections of concessions from current book, then, quite frankly, they deserve to live under them...
I'm not interested in concessions with a profitable company. We don't need to burn the place down, but anything less than current book plus COLA is simply cutting your own legs out from under yourself.
Feel free to talk about any one or more sections and we can explain how they are concessionary and exact paragraphs that prove it. Debate is a healthy thing! :beer:
Vote no, vote often. Recall, then recall again. Sorta like rinse and spin. Then rinse and spin again. These guys still haven't gotten the point. 
